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Page 1: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1Êù IS7K�ÅIµ

VA�®Ç�Å

�%�

E��ƲL�

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 1 / 40

Page 2: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

�ùSN

1. IS7K�ÅVA

2. ®Ç�Å

2.1 Ly��³

2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

2.4 ®Ç�Å�ý�

3. Ö¿�ÖÚêâ

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 2 / 40

Page 3: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

5ùgØ��ºlzc7K�Ť6

·�'u�a�Å��ãk���Ó�ÌK§@Ò´LÝÞÅ"Ã

Ø´�?§�´Õ1!úi½�¤ö§�J�Ï�LÝÞŬE¤é�

�XÚ5ºx"�?�²L¥5\�þy7wå5´3íIJLO�§

hEÜ�/a´�íp�dÚ�d§�Ñ�Ï��±YY²§ù

¦�Õ1wþ�'²��\­è!�\?a" · · · · · · ÅÖx)��J¬4<�)�«�ú§±��?ûü=²§7KÅ�J|��§I[)¹

Y²`�§�da�Jõ(Û�ï"

—– C.M.4ÏMAÚK.S.Û�Å£2010¤

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 3 / 40

Page 4: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

7K�Å�©a

®Ç�Å£exchange rate crisis¤���I[�À13áÏS��Ì

@�"

Õ1�Å£banking crisis¤���I[�Õ1ÚÙ¦7KÅ�du

î­�6Ä5Øv½]Ø-ŧ¡�@ç½»���x"

���Å£default crisis¤���I[��?Ü�Ã{½Ø�¿|G

ÅÖ��7½|E¤���Ì�ÅÖ�Å£sovereign debt crisis¤§

XJÅÖ<õ�IÜ�K¡�Å�Å£external debt crisis¤"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 4 / 40

Page 5: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

na�Å�u)ªÇ

Source: Laeven and Valencia(2018), Figure 4.

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 5 / 40

Page 6: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

7K���5�

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 6 / 40

Page 7: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

7K�Å�²L�³

Allen and Gale£2007¤�ѵ/L�120cp§zg7K�Åo´��X²

þ2*3c�²L$�ϧ¿E¤²þ5*10�z©:�GDP��"0V­�Å£twin

crisis¤Ún­�Å£triple crises¤E¤���c�î­"

Source: Reinhart(2018), International Financial Crises, Lecture slides on Nobel Symposium “Money and Banking”.

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 7 / 40

Page 8: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

1. IS7K�ÅVA

7K�Å��£�³

Source: Funke et al.(2016), Fig2. Far-right and right-wing populist votes in European elections.

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 8 / 40

Page 9: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.1 Ly��³

®Ç�Å�Ly

u�I[�À1c@�Ç��10%*15%±þ¶

uÐ¥I[�À1c@�Ç320%*25%±þ"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 9 / 40

Page 10: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.1 Ly��³

{¤þ�®Ç�Å: 1800–2007

Source: Reinhart and Rogoff(2009), Figure 12.3. The share of countries with annual depreciation rates greater than 15 percent.

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 10 / 40

Page 11: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.1 Ly��³

®Ç�Å�Õ1�Å: 1880–1997

Source: Bordo et al.(2001), Figure 1.

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 11 / 40

Page 12: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.1 Ly��³

®Ç�Å��³µ]�6\�â,¥�£sudden stop¤

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 12 / 40

Page 13: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.1 Ly��³

®Ç�Å��³µ�Ñeü!�£Ä�

®Ç�Åò�����Ñeü§U ÚuÕ1�ÅÚÌ�ÅÖ�

ŧcÙé7KNX¿Ø�õ�uÐ¥I[ ó§�U��î­�²L

�ÅÚ�£�Å"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 13 / 40

Page 14: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

¥Õ1]�KÅL

�Ä��vkÕ1XÚ �¹4®Ç�.§b½¥Õ1±k®;

�RÚIS]�Bü«]�§KÅ��ÜÀ1ø�M" 1

M = R + B

15µ£1¤Ø�ÄÕ1XÚÒvkû�Õ1�/�±ME0§ÏdÀ1øAþÒ�uÄ:À1"£2¤1�IS]��±n)

�ISÅ ½&�]�"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 14 / 40

Page 15: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

¥Õ1]�KÅLã)

M = B¡�2Ä�£floating line¤"w,§���I[�®;�Ѧ

�R = 0§Ò�U�ï�½®Ç!=�2Ä®Ç"

�2Ä���éålR/M�¡�|±'Ç£backing ratio¤§Ny��

I[-�®Ç�Å�Uå"

æ�î�¹4

®Ç�À1Û

£currency

board¤�Ý�

I[½/«ò

©ª�

±R = M"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 15 / 40

Page 16: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

AéÀ1I¦ÀÂ

�I�ÑYeü½|ÇY²iþ,�§b½3áÏISd�Y²Ø

CP§K�I¶ÂÀ1I¦Md = Ms = Mòeü"3IS]�BØC�

�¹e§7,��®]�R��þeü"

M ↓= R ↓ +B

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 16 / 40

Page 17: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

AéÀ1I¦Àµã«

IS]��±ØC�§À1I¦�Cz��;�]���þCz"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 17 / 40

Page 18: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

áÏSK�|ÇY²ÚÀ1I¦�Ï�

i = i∗ +∆E e

E+

[Exchange rate

risk premium

]︸ ︷︷ ︸

Currency premium

+

[Default

risk premium

]︸ ︷︷ ︸

Country premium

�½|ýÏ�1@�½®ÇÅĺxþ,�§�I|ÇòpuI|ÇY

²§�3À1Äd£currency premium¤§�NÑÀ1�ü��&Ý"

XJ½|ú%�I�UÑyvÂI]�!¢1]���§±9ÅÖòÏ

Ú���¯K�§Ò�¦k�p�|ÇY²±Ö�þãI[ºx§ÏdI

[Äd£country premium¤�NÑ���o��&Ý"

�¹4®Ç´�&��vk?ÛºxÄd�§�I|Çò�uI|Ç"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 18 / 40

Page 19: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

Y~µ1991*2001cC�É�|Ç�

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 19 / 40

Page 20: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

Y~µC�É��l�|Ç�

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 20 / 40

Page 21: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

AéÀ1ø��¤�Cz

�À1I¦ØC�§1�±ÏLúm½|ö��À1�üóäU

C;�]�RÚIS]�B��é(�§�±¹4®Ç�"

M = R ↓ +B ↑

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 21 / 40

Page 22: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

AéÀ1ø��¤�Czµã«

eÀ1I¦þ�±ØC§1�±ÏLÀ�£sterilization¤§¦;

�]�ÚIS]�u)êþ��!�����Cz§�±¹4®Ç�"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 22 / 40

Page 23: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

Y~µ1993*1997cC�É1Aé®Ç�Å

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 23 / 40

Page 24: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

1]�KÅL�ÿÐ

M + L = R + B

M ↓,B ↑ 6=⇒ R ↓, R/M > 1

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 24 / 40

Page 25: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

Y~µ¥I1�À�ö�

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 25 / 40

Page 26: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.2 ¹4®Ç��$�µ1ö�

Y~µ¥I<¬Õ1]�KÅL(2000–2017)

êâ5 µ¥I<¬Õ1�Õ/À1�Û]�KÅL0! iFind"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 26 / 40

Page 27: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.Iµ���ã��ü

Krugman£1979¤@�§¢1¹4®Ç��I[æ�Ø���ã�

�ü£inconsistent fiscal policy¤òÚu®Ç�Å"

1 3��ã�Ì�£fiscal dominance¤!1"yÕá5�I[§�

? �¦1�ã�»i∆ < 0?1K]¶

2 �À1I¦ÚÀ1oþØC�§O\é�?�IS&�ò��;�

]���þeü∆R = −∆B = ∆¶

3 ��;�Ѧ§TIò�½�ï¹4®Ç�"�â®Çû½��Ï

À1nا�1�@�Ç�u�ã�»i?1K] OuÀ1��

Ý∆B/B = ∆M/M = µ

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 27 / 40

Page 28: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.IµáÀ�/

Ý]ö´áÀ�£myopic¤§�1ò3;�Ѧ�4:u)a�@

�"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 28 / 40

Page 29: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.Iµ�{ýÏ

Ý]ök�{ýÏ£perfect-foresight¤§Ò¬rÝÅ5ÀÂ��m

Jc�2:§d�du|Çþ, ����$�À1I¦fÐ�uÏ;

�JcѦ ����$�À1ø�§�1l2:m©±Y@�"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 29 / 40

Page 30: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.I�Y~µ1986c�°�Å

duã��üØ��ÚIS&�LÝ*ܧ�°u1985*1986cu

)®Ç�Å"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 30 / 40

Page 31: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.IIµ�¨À1�ü

Krugman£1979¤�1��®Ç�Å�.rNã��ü�Ø��5

ÚIS&�*Ü�K�§�.�±¤õ/)º1980c�u)3éõ

.{I[�®Ç�ŧ�Ã{)º1990 c�u)3éõu�I[

�¯K§X1992c�ERM�Å"

Obstfeld£1986¤�1��®Ç�Å�.�ѧXJ½|ýÏ�

1Á¥¹4®Ç��´�«�¨«ì£contingent commitment¤!

��±�½®Ç��¤�Lp�7ò=�2Ä®Ç��{§®Ç�

Å�u)Òò�ûu½|ýÏ! Ø´��I[�²LÄ:§¿Ñ

y¤¢�õ­þï£multiple equilibria¤"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 31 / 40

Page 32: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.IIµ�±¹4®Ç�¤�

e¡·�©n«�¹?Ø�±¹4®Ç�¤�µ

1 ��ÑY1Ñ$un��ÑY�§�±¹4®Ç�¤�c1��"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 32 / 40

Page 33: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.IIµ�±¹4®Ç�¤�

2 �ISI¦É����K¡ÀÂ!IS­��£�§��±¹4®

ÇLM­��7L�£§d��ÑY²ò�Ìeü�Y2§�±¹4

®Ç�¤�c2��"

�%� (E��ƲLÆ�) 1Êù IS7K�Å I 33 / 40

Page 34: E L IS K I 1 / 40static.zybuluo.com/fanxy/6nw5uyg55hz2nz75trogq65z/Ch9_I.pdf · 3. Ö¿˛ÖÚŒâ IS7K‹¯Œâ5 1 Funke, M., M. Schularick, and C. Trebesch 2016: Going to Extremes:

2. ®Ç�Å 2.3 ¹4®Ç��)NµnØ�.

®Ç�Å�.IIµ�±¹4®Ç�¤�

3 XJ½|ýÏ�1ج��±¹4®Ç ¦²L�\î­Pò§@o

Ù¹4®Ç�«ìÒ´Ø�&�"Xe㤫§�½|ýÏ�1@�

�FR­�òþ£§d�1XJE�±�½®ÇáÏ�Ñò�Ìeü

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