e-paper profit 30th april, 2012

3
profit.com.pk Go short; go long at the same time Page 02 Sunday, 29 April, 2012 T HE recent hijack drama may have been a bad joke gone horribly wrong, but its ramifications are a good example of how sentiment matters. Not only did the carrier and passengers lose in terms of time and money, but subsequent headlines did no favours to our national image in international circles, where investor decisions are crucial to our immediate survival. For the type of investors Islamabad wishes, rather needs, to engage, front-page headlines in The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal hold significant value. and since Pakistan has made for consistently bad press for a prolonged period of time, it is little surprise that investors remain shy. From the habitat of terrorism to a convicted prime minister, institutions at cross purposes, bhoja crash, terror attacks, failing economy, hijack scares – it’s a surprise the economy is functioning at all. Yet the stock market is locked in a stellar bull run, with its occasional retracements of course. How much that reflects sound fundamentals and just how much it exposes weak regulation is another debate, but there’s no denying it’s a high-paying playing field begging for serious investment. The matter of marketing this potential should be given far more serious thought in Islamabad than seems the case. It is unfortunate that media arms of both civil and military institutions have failed to present a truer account of their recent endeavours than the world has been made witness to. The less said about state media the better, true, especially since it refuses to learn from past mistakes, and remains engaged in rubbishing all things opposition instead of building a positive narrative around itself. Truly a place where the more things change, the more they remain the same, musical chairs and all. The need to change course has never been more urgent. an essential pillar of state with little constructive ability is not much good at all. cOMMENT When headlines don’t help Oil report seen supporting Iran sanctions LAHORE NAUMAN TASLEEM a MERICaN business Forum (abF) President Salim Ghauri said that abF member compa- nies will invest millions of dol- lars in the next two years in Pakistan, subject to political stability. He was ex- tending welcome address to US ambas- sador Cameron Munter at the 3rd annual Dinner of american business Forum at a local Club. He said the United States of america has a huge stake in Pakistani businesses landscape. They have invested hundreds of millions in Pakistan because they believe in Pakistan’s potential. In the next two years 350 to USD 400million will be invested in Pakistan by abF Mem- ber companies, he added. Salim said the abF members are also credited for 15,000 direct and 30,000 indirect employment in the last one year. american businesses are not only the largest source of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan; they are also the heaviest tax payers, he added. He said as Pakistan continues to pave its way to- wards a mature, more stable democratic future, 2012 promises to be one of the many critical years in our country’s his- tory. The dynamics building up to and eventually through the elections them- selves can prove to be challenging, but I genuinely believe that Pakistan is now mature enough to overcome the difficul- ties and emerge out the other side even stronger, and best geared for the future, he stressed. However, said President abF, in order to truly realize the eco- nomic potential of the country, the Gov- ernment needs to take concrete steps towards tax rationalisation, in line with the examples of bRICS and emerging Caucasian countries of Central asia, where corporate & personal income taxes are kept at lower rate to encourage in- vestment and spending. already, he pointed out, the election year would imply an election budget, and a surplus of irrational funds and unnecessary cash flow will be available at this moment. This will only go on to an imbalance in the economy, and ultimately negatively affect our trade deficit. The abF compa- nies will have a great role to play in this phase of Pakistani politics, he added. Salim underlined that members of abF have played an instrumental role in community building as part of their Corporate Social Responsibility efforts – as we are well aware of our role as re- sponsible corporate citizens. In fact, US companies were amongst the first to re- spond and support people during the tragic 2010 and 2011 floods, which af- fected more than 20% of the country. Companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and others are the reason why our communities continue to receive short and long term support, in the time of need. Even through abF platform, members have contributed towards construction of houses, which will soon be commissioned in Sindh and handed over to the people affected by flooding. He said the abF has also signed an MoU with USaID to make abF eligible for economic and humanitar- ian assistance. Salim said he was invited recently by the State Department to repre- sent Pakistani business com- munity at the Global business Conference in Washington DC. With Hillary Clinton as the chair person and with representatives of more than 120 countries in atten- dance, it was a great honour and a hum- bling moment to be recognised at such a forum. It was also a great oppor- tunity to learn about the direc- tions and aims of the international community, looking at busi- ness opportuni- ties and evaluating our own standing within interna- tional commu- nity. President abF also appreci- ated the US Consul Gen- eral, Nina Fite and her office for support and cooperation with local business community. ON THE FAMILY FRONT WASHINGTON REUTERS G lobal oil inventories grew over the last two months despite the loss of further supplies from Iran, according to a U.S. report that gave leeway for the obama administration to press ahead with sanctions on the oPEC nation. The Energy Information administration report, required every 60 days by the Iran sanctions law President barack obama signed in December, gave a mostly positive assessment of global oil supplies, which typically build at this time of year. World oil and motor fuel supplies exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in March and april, the EIa said, allowing consumer countries to build cushions against any potential losses from U.S. and EU measures against Tehran. Inventories were helped by strong production from Saudi arabia, which pumped 9.8 million barrels per day, about 900,000 bpd more than it did in March and april a year ago, it said. “The report provides that comfort level that (the administration) can continue toward implementation of the sanctions without fear that the market is poised to go crazy for them,” said David Pumphrey, fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies and former Energy Department official. The sanctions aim to choke funding to Tehran’s nuclear program by slowing transactions between oil-consuming countries and the Central bank of Iran. The West contends Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, while Tehran says the program is strictly for civilian purposes. POTENTIAL SPR TAP: The supply picture was not entirely sunny. The report said Iranian oil output has already been hit by sanctions, and that several non-oPEC crude disruptions worsened in March and april. The disruptions add to worries the global oil market could tighten as - outside of Saudi arabia - it lacks significant production capacity. They also support the possibility the administration could tap emergency oil stock piles to cool down high fuel prices. Republicans have slammed obama over high gasoline prices that have hurt consumers as they struggle with a fragile economic recovery ahead of the November 6 election. The U.S. sanctions and a pending EU embargo on Iranian oil have already trimmed the oPEC member’s oil output by 400,000 barrels per day compared with a year ago, the report said. “EIa believes that Iran’s total liquids production capability has been declining due to its inability to carry out investment projects,” necessary to offset natural oil well decline rates, it said. In addition, Canadian oil supply problems and ongoing disruptions from Sudan, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen compounded worries that petroleum markets could tighten ahead of the June 28 deadline, when obama is allowed to sanction foreign banks over oil-related transactions with the Central bank of Iran. but the White House is unlikely to slow the process ahead of talks in Iraq late next month between Iran and six major powers to settle the nuclear dispute, backers of the sanctions said. “The last thing the administration would do ahead of baghdad talks would be to show any sign that they are not full steam ahead on oil market sanctions,” said Mark Dubowitz, the head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a lobbying group for tough Iran sanctions. The administration has said it is considering all options to combat high gasoline prices, including a release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. “Nothing in today’s report undercuts the administration’s stated motivations for drawing reserves,” said Kevin book, an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners in Washington. g US companies to invest millions of dollars in Pakistan in the two years: Salim Ghauri g Uncle needs nephew to be healthy and ‘stable’ for his own interests Uncle Sam to spare some cash for his ‘favourite’ nephew PRO 30-04-2012_Layout 1 4/29/2012 11:44 PM Page 1

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E-paper Profit 30th April, 2012

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Page 1: E-paper Profit 30th April, 2012

profit.com.pk

Go short; go long at thesame time Page 02

Sunday, 29 April, 2012

THE recent hijack drama may havebeen a bad joke gone horriblywrong, but its ramifications are a

good example of how sentiment matters.Not only did the carrier and passengerslose in terms of time and money, butsubsequent headlines did no favours toour national image in international circles,where investor decisions are crucial to ourimmediate survival. For the type ofinvestors Islamabad wishes, rather needs,to engage, front-page headlines in TheFinancial Times and Wall Street Journalhold significant value. and since Pakistanhas made for consistently bad press for aprolonged period of time, it is littlesurprise that investors remain shy.From the habitat of terrorism to aconvicted prime minister, institutions atcross purposes, bhoja crash, terror attacks,failing economy, hijack scares – it’s asurprise the economy is functioning at all.Yet the stock market is locked in a stellarbull run, with its occasional retracementsof course. How much that reflects soundfundamentals and just how much it

exposes weak regulation is anotherdebate, but there’s no denying it’s ahigh-paying playing field begging forserious investment. The matter ofmarketing this potential should begiven far more serious thought inIslamabad than seems the case.

It is unfortunate that media arms ofboth civil and military institutions havefailed to present a truer account of theirrecent endeavours than the world has

been made witness to. The less saidabout state media the better, true,especially since it refuses to learn frompast mistakes, and remains engaged inrubbishing all things opposition instead ofbuilding a positive narrative around itself.Truly a place where the more thingschange, the more they remain the same,musical chairs and all. The need to changecourse has never been more urgent. anessential pillar of state with littleconstructive ability is not much good at all.

cOMMENT

When headlinesdon’t help

Oil report seen supporting Iran sanctions

LAHORE

NAUMAN TASLEEM

aMERICaN business Forum(abF) President Salim Ghaurisaid that abF member compa-nies will invest millions of dol-

lars in the next two years in Pakistan,subject to political stability. He was ex-tending welcome address to US ambas-sador Cameron Munter at the 3rd annualDinner of american business Forum at alocal Club. He said the United States ofamerica has a huge stake in Pakistanibusinesses landscape. They have investedhundreds of millions in Pakistan becausethey believe in Pakistan’s potential. In thenext two years 350 to USD 400millionwill be invested in Pakistan by abF Mem-ber companies, he added.

Salim said the abF members arealso credited for 15,000 direct and30,000 indirect employment in the lastone year. american businesses are notonly the largest source of Foreign DirectInvestment in Pakistan; they are also theheaviest tax payers, he added. He said asPakistan continues to pave its way to-wards a mature, more stable democraticfuture, 2012 promises to be one of themany critical years in our country’s his-tory. The dynamics building up to andeventually through the elections them-selves can prove to be challenging, but Igenuinely believe that Pakistan is nowmature enough to overcome the difficul-ties and emerge out the other side evenstronger, and best geared for the future,

he stressed. However, said PresidentabF, in order to truly realize the eco-nomic potential of the country, the Gov-ernment needs to take concrete stepstowards tax rationalisation, in line withthe examples of bRICS and emergingCaucasian countries of Central asia,where corporate & personal income taxesare kept at lower rate to encourage in-vestment and spending. already, hepointed out, the election year wouldimply an election budget, and a surplusof irrational funds and unnecessary cashflow will be available at this moment.This will only go on to an imbalance inthe economy, and ultimately negativelyaffect our trade deficit. The abF compa-nies will have a great role to play in thisphase of Pakistani politics, he added.

Salim underlined that members ofabF have played an instrumental rolein community building as part of theirCorporate Social Responsibility efforts– as we are well aware of our role as re-sponsible corporate citizens. In fact, UScompanies were amongst the first to re-spond and support people during thetragic 2010 and 2011 floods, which af-fected more than 20% of the country.Companies like Coca-Cola, PepsiCoand others are the reason why ourcommunities continue to receive shortand long term support, in the time ofneed. Even through abF platform,members have contributed towardsconstruction of houses, which will soonbe commissioned in Sindh and handedover to the people affected by flooding.

He said the abF has also signed anMoU with USaID to make abF eligiblefor economic and humanitar-ian assistance. Salim said hewas invited recently by theState Department to repre-sent Pakistani business com-munity at the Global businessConference in Washington DC.With Hillary Clinton as the chairperson and with representativesof more than 120countries in atten-dance, it was a greathonour and a hum-bling moment to berecognised at sucha forum. It wasalso a great oppor-tunity to learnabout the direc-tions and aims ofthe internationalcommunity,looking at busi-ness opportuni-ties andevaluating ourown standingwithin interna-tional commu-nity. PresidentabF also appreci-ated the US Consul Gen-eral, Nina Fite and heroffice for support andcooperation with localbusiness community.

ON THE FAMILY FRONT

WASHINGTON

REUTERS

Global oil inventories grew over thelast two months despite the loss offurther supplies from Iran, according toa U.S. report that gave leeway for the

obama administration to press ahead withsanctions on the oPEC nation.The Energy Information administration report,required every 60 days by the Iran sanctions lawPresident barack obama signed in December,gave a mostly positive assessment of global oilsupplies, which typically build at this time of year.World oil and motor fuel supplies exceededdemand by 500,000 barrelsper day in March andapril, the EIa said,allowing consumer

countries to buildcushions against any

potential losses fromU.S. and EU

measures

against Tehran.Inventories were helped by strong productionfrom Saudi arabia, which pumped 9.8 millionbarrels per day, about 900,000 bpd more than itdid in March and april a year ago, it said.“The report provides that comfort level that (theadministration) can continue towardimplementation of the sanctions without fear thatthe market is poised to go crazy for them,” saidDavid Pumphrey, fellow at Center for Strategicand International Studies and former EnergyDepartment official.The sanctions aim to choke funding toTehran’s nuclear program by slowingtransactions between oil-consumingcountries and the Central bank of Iran.The West contends Iran is trying to builda nuclear weapon, while Tehran says theprogram is strictly for civilian purposes.

POTENTIAL SPR

TAP: The supplypicture was

not entirelysunny.

Thereport

said

Iranian oil output has already been hit bysanctions, and that several non-oPEC crudedisruptions worsened in March and april. Thedisruptions add to worries the global oil marketcould tighten as - outside of Saudi arabia - it lackssignificant production capacity. They alsosupport the possibility theadministration could tap emergencyoil stock piles to cool down high fuelprices. Republicans have slammedobama over high gasoline pricesthat have hurt consumers as they

struggle with a fragile economicrecovery ahead of the November6 election. The U.S. sanctionsand a pending EU embargo onIranian oil have already trimmedthe oPEC member’s oil output by400,000 barrels per daycompared with a year ago, thereport said.“EIa believes that Iran’s totalliquids production capability hasbeen declining due to its inabilityto carry out investment projects,”necessary to offset natural oil

well decline rates, it

said. In addition, Canadian oil supply problemsand ongoing disruptions from Sudan, SouthSudan, Syria, and Yemen compounded worriesthat petroleum markets could tighten ahead of theJune 28 deadline, when obama is allowed tosanction foreign banks over oil-relatedtransactions with the Central bank of Iran.but the White House is unlikely to slow theprocess ahead of talks in Iraq late next monthbetween Iran and six major powers to settle thenuclear dispute, backers of the sanctions said.“The last thing the administration would do aheadof baghdad talks would be to show any sign thatthey are not full steam ahead on oil marketsanctions,” said Mark Dubowitz, the head of theFoundation for Defense of Democracies, alobbying group for tough Iran sanctions. Theadministration has said it is considering alloptions to combat high gasoline prices, includinga release of crude from the U.S. StrategicPetroleum Reserve. “Nothing in today’s reportundercuts the administration’s stated motivationsfor drawing reserves,” said Kevin book, an analystat ClearView Energy Partners in Washington.

g US companies to invest millions of dollars in Pakistan in the two years: SalimGhauri g Uncle needs nephew to be healthy and ‘stable’ for his own interests

Uncle Sam to spare some cashfor his ‘favourite’ nephew

PRO 30-04-2012_Layout 1 4/29/2012 11:44 PM Page 1

Page 2: E-paper Profit 30th April, 2012

news02Sunday, 29 April, 2012

LAHORE

STAFF REPORT

SENaToR Ishaq Dar has saidthat the resolution ofongoing energy crisis lies inlaunching short and long-

term projects simultaneously becauseacute energy shortage wouldultimately lead to food shortages. The Senator was speaking at PrivateSector Energy Roundtable arrangedthe lahore Chamber of Commerceand Industry at Royal Palm onSaturday. lCCI President IrfanQaiser Shiekh, ChairmanIndependent Power Produceradvisory Council abdullah Yousaf,former WaPDa Chairman TariqHameed, Dr Salman Shah, SulemanNajeeb Khan, Director EnergyManagement Resources Fahat ali,Munawar baseer, Professor Dr FaridMalik gave their presentations onenergy situation and its solutionwhile lCCI Senior Vice presidentKashif Younis Meher, Vice PresidentSaeeda Nazar, former lCCIPresidents Mian Mohammad ashraf,Mian anjum Nisar and ShahidHassan Sheik, former Senior VicePresident Sheikh Mohammadarshad and former ExecutiveCommittee Member Khalid Rafiqperformed as panelists.Ishaq Dar said that the present andthe past planners committedmistakes by ignoring this importantsector but instead of pondering onpast follies, we should focus onenergy generation. The Senator saidthat as many as 500 textile unitsclosed down their operations due toenergy shortage. He said that the lackof political will aggravated the energysituation and around 5000 MW ofthe electricity could easily be securedby giving attention towards thisissue. a permanent solution to thecountry’s energy crisis is direlyneeded, the Senator said.Former Finance Minister Dr SalmanShah said deregulation of powersector is a must to solve the energyissue. He quoted the example oftelecom sector which is giving hugerevenue to the government. He saidthat single buyer model should bechanged now as it has failed toensure cheaper electricity to theconsumers. He Kalabagh Dam (KbD)is the only short-term option toovercome the energy crisis andrevive the country’s stagnant

economy. He said KbD was a feasibleproject and it could be constructedin just four years to produce 4,000megawatts of electricity at a rate ofjust Rs 1.5 per unit.In his opening address, the lCCIPresident Irfan Qaiser Sheikh saidthat energy crisis is disruptingeconomic and social activitiesthroughout the country andparticularly in the Punjab. Thesituation is causing business closuresand unemployment. Incomes,profitability and competitiveness areeroding and energy insecurity isgrowing. The irony is that all this ishappening in a potentially energyrich country.The lCCI President said that thecountry is facing fundamental policy,planning, management, investmentand regulatory failures in energysector development and thesefailures have undermined economicand social wellbeing. He said that thegovernment should come up with acomprehensive and viable energy

policy based on national interests.Former WaPDa Chairman TariqHameed said that small projects upto 500 MW would not resolve thepower crisis. There is a need toinitiate projects that give quantumjump to the power generation. Thisaim could be achieved by exploitingthe hydro electric potential ofcountry. In this regard detailedstudies of Kalabagh Dam (3600MW), bhasha Dam (4600 MW, Dasu(3000 MW) bonji (7000 MW) havealready been prepared by WaPDa.He said that in order to ensuresustained supplies in future, thegovernment should at least start twomega hydro electric projectsimmediately. Electricity requirementin the country increasing by 8% perannum while during the past fouryears we have not been able to evenplug the shortage that are alreadyexisting. The supply and demand gapis increasing every passing year. Theformer WaPD Chairman said thatthough energy crisis seems to be the

main issue of our economy at presenthowever, in near future watershortage will be more contentiousissue between the provinces. He said per capita water availabilityin the country today is 1000 cubicmeter. It will start declining below1000 cubic meter per capita fromnow onwards which will place thecountry among water starvednations. Chairman IndependentPower Producer advisory Councilabdullah Yousaf expressed concernover the ever increasing circular debtwhich is now touching Rs. 365 billionand is increasing at the rate of Rs onebillion per day. He said that theoutstanding dues of PEPCo are Rs350 billion. and this makes the pointthat Circular debt is a governanceissue. He said in the Circular Debt Rs150 billion are due against publicsector which could be recoveredthrough NFC award while the duesagainst private sector could berecovered by disconnecting thesupply of electricity.

abdullah Yousaf said that 2500 MWcould be brought back into thesystem immediately by paying thedues of IPPs. Suleman Najeeb Khansaid that Pakistan is abdicating itswater rights to India while thebureaucrats are wrongly interpretingthe Indus Water Treaty. He cited theexample of Neelum-Jehlum Projectwhich gives Pakistan full rights overits waters once it had shown itsintention to build the project in 1990.Munwar baseer said that energysituation could be tackled by givingfull responsibility and charge tocompetent and honest professionalas politicians are driven by their ownself fulfilling motives and agendas. Meanwhile, students showed theirkeen interest in the lCCI lSF JobFair and people submitted theirapplication. More than 500 hundredpeople took part in the lCCI lSFmotorbike rally from the lCCI tolahore Expo Center while three luckywinners got motorcycle throughlucky draw.

WASHINGTON

REUTERS

THE largest U.S. banks are accusing theFederal Reserve of attempting to misuseits new regulatory powers to shrinkfinancial giants under the misguided

belief that “big is bad.”lobbying groups representing the big banks arepushing back against a set of proposed rules theFed issued in December to more closely scrutinizethe firms and rein in their risk taking after the2007-2009 financial crisis.In a letter sent Friday, the groups said the Fed isgoing too far and is proposing a set of policies oncredit exposure and capital standards that goagainst the intent of the 2010 Dodd-Frankfinancial oversight law.“We submit that an approach grounded in a ‘toobig’ or ‘big is bad’ concept is not only contrary toCongress’ intent but is misguided and detrimentalto a sound, strong banking system and a strongeconomy,” the groups wrote.The letter precedes a meeting next week betweenFed Governor Daniel Tarullo and the CEos oflarge banks, including JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon,

according to a person familiar with the plan.The meeting was scheduled to talk about the Fed’sannual stress tests on the banks. The banks maytry to press him on other issues including theirqualms with the December proposal for managinglarge banks.The letter was written by The Clearing Houseassociation, the american bankers association,the Financial Services Forum, the FinancialServices Roundtable and the Securities Industryand Financial Markets association. Comments onthe December proposal are due Monday.The Dodd-Frank law requires the Fed to writerules for overseeing bank holding companies withmore than $50 billion in assets to ensure they arenot engaging in risky activities that could threatenthe financial system.The groups said the Fed “has set a course,”however, to use these new powers “to achieveindirectly what it was not authorized to addressdirectly - that is, precipitate a dramatic reductionin the size of large banks through size-basedregulation.”Collectively the lobbying groups represent thelargest U.S. banks, including Citigroup Inc (C.N),bank of america Corp (baC.N), JPMorgan Chase

& Co (JPM.N), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N)and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N).The salvo against the Fed is the latest example oftension over whether there are too many largebanks whose potential failure poses a grave threatto the larger financial system.Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher has taken amore extreme position, recently proposingbreaking up the five biggest U.S. banks.Tarullo, who has been the central bank’s pointman on regulation, has been more moderate.He has never publicly called for breaking up thelargest banks. but he has spooked the industry byquestioning whether banks can get so big that anyfuture growth does not provide value, througheconomies of scale, to the financial system oreconomy.“It is possible that a firm would need to be quitelarge and diversified to achieve these economies,but still not as large and diversified as some oftoday’s firms have become,” he said in aSeptember speech calling for more study of theissue.In their letter, the groups argue that allowingbanks of all sizes benefits the economy and thatthe largest institutions can provide services their

smaller competitors can not.“In the 21st century, companies served byinternational banks compete in a global economicsystem, exporting finished products, importingraw materials and components, and establishingsubstantial operations abroad,” the groups wrote.“They need banks that are competitive around theworld and are able to meet quickly and efficientlya wide range of financial needs.”The 161-page letter gets deep into the details ofthe rule and of particular concern to the banks is aFed proposal to limit the credit exposure of bigbanks to a single counterparty as a percentage ofthe firm’s regulatory capital.The credit exposure between the largest of the bigbanks would be subject to an even tighter limit. abank with more than $500 billion in consolidatedassets could not have a credit exposure of morethan 10 percent to another bank of that size.The letter calls this proposal “unrealistic and one-dimensional” and that, among other things, itmiscalculates the threats posed by exposure toderivative markets.The groups also contend the Fed has offered noexplanation for why the 10 percent threshold isnecessary.

LccI, THE PROBLEM SOLVER

g Senator Ishaq Dar highlights the importance of launching short and long term projects simultaneously to over energy crisis

Go short; go long at the same time

Big isn’t bad, banks tell Fed

PRO 30-04-2012_Layout 1 4/29/2012 11:44 PM Page 2

Page 3: E-paper Profit 30th April, 2012

news

Sunday, 29 April, 2012

03

LONDON

REUTERS

CaUGHT in a vice betweensluggish global growth andworldwide debt deleveraging,investors face another week

of potentially gloomy economic newswith no relief in sight from the growingconcerns about euro zone debt.The focus will be mainly on theEuropean Central bank’s monthlypolicy meeting, the U.S. non-farmpayrolls report and data on the outlookfor the world’s manufacturing sector,which still represents 20 percent of theglobal economy.but these events are not expected tooffer much diversion from the steadilyworsening crisis in the euro zone,which is driving demand for safe havenassets.“It’s about capital preservation from aninvestor point of view,” said Richardbatty, global investment strategist atStandard life Investments, which has$240.7 billion of assets undermanagement.“It’s a risk averse attitude that themarket’s taking.”Standard life’s global outlook for thesecond quarter remains moderatelycautious, favoring U.S. equities andcorporate debt due to signs of strengthin that economy, and remaining neutralto light in riskier assets in Europe andasia where it sees problems affecting anumber of economies.These problems have become muchmore prominent in Europe over thepast week where new data signaled aworsening in the outlook for manycountries with the worries spreading tothe euro area’s bigger and more stableeconomies.an ECb region-wide survey of banklending published last week, the first tofully take into account the 1 trillioneuros ($1.3 trillion) it injected into thebanking system, found that while bankswere more willing to lend, the demandfor credit from companies has fallen.

This weakness has been reflected insurveys of business sentiment acrossthe euro area and in many corporateearnings reports, especially from banks,as Europe’s first quarter earningsseason gets into full swing.In the markets the main impact hasbeen to drive down yields in Germangovernment bonds and U.S. Treasuriesto around record lows, while the mainindex of European stocks, the FTSEEurofirst .FTEU3 index, actually had afairly flat week and the euro was littlechanged.GROWTH CALL: The gloomieroutlook has been encouraging callsfrom the region’s political leaders for ashift away from tough governmentausterity measures to more growth-oriented strategies but is not expectedto prompt any action from ECbpolicymakers on Thursday.“The ECb is going to stick to its wait-and-see stance, without any meaningfulchanges in rhetoric,” Unicrediteconomist Marco Valli said.The market will, however, scrutinizethe regular news conference after themeeting for signs the bank is preparingto ease policy in some form.a Reuters poll of 60 economists foundthree-quarters of them expect the ECbwill restart its government bond-buyingprogram at some point in the next threemonths because of the growingtensions in the euro zone bond market.The political rhetoric on the need formore growth is also likely to increaseover the coming week in the run up tothe final round of the Frenchpresidential vote and the Greek generalelections on Sunday, May 6.but this is likely to fall on deaf ears inthe markets.“For us there’s a lot of talk there, butwe’d be surprised if anything concretecomes about,” said Standard life’sbatty.Jim Reid, credit strategist at Deutschebank, said what was really needed ismuch better policy cohesion betweeneuro zone governments and the ECb.

“There are signs that the stress in themarket now will lead to a revisiting ofthe policy response and an acceptancethe current mix is not great.”Spain, the euro zone’s fourth largesteconomy and current focus of the debtcrisis, will provide a real test of whereinvestor sentiment stands when it sells3- and 5-year bonds on Thursday.The sale will be even more closelywatched after the country suffered asurprise two-notch credit ratingdowngrade which pushed yields on its10-year debt over the key six percentlevel on Friday.The amount investors demand to holdSpain’s debt rather than safer Germanbonds has risen about a 120 basispoints since Prime Minister MarianoRajoy announced in early March thegovernment was abandoning its deficit-reduction targets for the year.RECoVERY EYEDoutside the euro zone’s problems,growth is the biggest concern facinginvestors following a disappointing 2.2percent rise in U.S. first quartereconomic output.The U.S. is due to report that non-farmpayrolls in april grew by 175,000 onFriday, a rebound from the surpriserise of only 120,000 in March whichdid much to unsettle growth hopesacross all the markets.before the jobs numbers, the Institutefor Supply Management (ISM) willissue an update on manufacturingactivity for april on Tuesday.The Chinese growth outlook also befurther clarified with the release of thegovernment’s manufacturingpurchasing manager’s series onTuesday and the non-manufacturingPMI on Thursday.Emerging market equities haveperformed well so far this year with theMSCI emerging index .MSCIEF up over11 percent for the year to date, butgrowing worries about the health ofeuro zone peripheral states havereversed some of these gains over thepast six weeks.

Safety dominatesinvestor outlook

BEIJING

REUTERS

CHINa’S tradegrowth in thesecond quarter

should stabilise at a“low level”, theCommerce Ministrysaid on Friday in aregular springassessment of businessconditions thatcautioned tough timesahead.Without predictingwhen trade flows wouldrecover, the ministrysaid the world’s second-biggest economy stillfaced considerableheadwinds and thatprice pressures werebuilding despiteslackening activity.but it noted that theChinese economy,which grew at itsslowest annual pace innearly three years at 8.1percent in the firstquarter, was supported

by good fundamentals.“There are somefavorable factors toensure steady growth intrade, but we shouldalso note that the yearof 2012 may be a quitechallenging one forChina’s trade,” theministry said in itsassessment, postedonline.“China’s external tradegrowth is likely tostabilize at a relativelylow level in the secondquarter.”China has set a 10percent growth rate forexports and imports in2012, but both targetswere missed in March,with imports expandingjust 5.3 percent from ayear earlier whileexports grew 8.9percent.The ministry says it isconfident of hitting itstarget.Hurt by a recession inEurope and a patchy

economic recovery inthe United States -China’s two biggesttrading partners -exportsales growth hasslumped to single-digitlevels this year, a longway from growth ofover 20 percent seen in2010 and the first-halfof 2011.Worse, rising domesticlabor costs and higherraw material prices aresqueezing thecompetitiveness ofChinese exporters aswell, the ministry said.a separate surveyreleased by China’sstatistics agencyshowed the 159-million-strong migrantworkforce saw anaverage salary increaseof 21.2 percent in 2011from a year earlier.“China’s trade growthin 2012 will grow at astable pace, which isexpected to be lowerthan in 2011, and the

trade balance will befurther improved,” theministry said.It noted that global oilprices could climb onthe back of geopoliticaltensions in Iran andSyria.“Uncertainties hangingover Syria and theunfolding Iran nuclearcrisis could increase therisk of higher oilprices,” it said. Chinaposted a trade surplusof about $25 billion inthe first quarter,accounting for just 1.4percent of its grossdomestic product, halflast year’s proportionand well below the 10.1percent seen in 2007.but the country’soverall trade sectordragged on theeconomy in the firstquarter, with netexports subtracting 0.8percentage points fromChinese economicgrowth.

LAHORE

STAFF REPORT

CoNTINUED wet spellhas once againcompelled the

Pakistan agriculturalStorage and ServicesCorporation (PaSSCo) todelay distribution of gunnybags amongst the wheatgrowers under ‘wheatprocurement drive 2012’ andnow farmers will startgetting gunny bags from May01, 2012 from the designatedprocurement centres of theCorporation.While Special assistant tothe Chief Minister Punjabfor Food DepartmentMuhammad Mansha Ullahbutt in a statement todayhas claimed that thedepartment has initiateddistribution of gunny bags inRahim Yar Khan andSadiqabad. However, in thesame statement he said thatgunny bags distributionwould start in all districts ofthe Punjab province fromMay 01, 2012.

butt also cited the continuedrain spell as a reason indelayed harvesting of wheatand delayed initiation ofprocurement drive. Heassured that the governmentwould give duecompensation to the growersof their hard work. He saidthat the food departmenthad made all thearrangements to buy 3.5million tons of wheat.all the arrangements forstart of wheat procurementdrive are in place. Sixty fiveper cent of the requiredgunny bags have alreadybeen reached the designatedcenters while rest is in thepipeline. Unfortunately, wehave to take the decision ofdelaying the process onceagain to avoid high moisturecontent in wheat. Farmersmight had brought wheatwith high moisture contentcreating complications if theCorporation’s staff refuses tobuy it, said a highly placedofficial.To a question, he said thatfinances have also been

arranged for procurement of1.5 million tons of wheatwhile assurances by thebanks for finances for therest of 0.5 million tons havealso been received.The Corporation wouldlaunch its procurement drivesimultaneously in Punjab,Sindh and balochistan.Farmers will be paid Rs1,050 per 40 kilograms atthe procurement centresbesides Rs 7 per bag asdelivery charges. all thezonal heads of theCorporation attended adaylong conference on‘wheat procurement policy2012’ on Friday to resolveany bottlenecks they arefinding in smoothprocurement drive. Now allthe issues have beenresolved and growers willface no hardships, assured aCorporation official.The spokesman said thatfarmers can lodge theircomplaint if any againstPaSSCo officials on 0300-4262758 or042-99201461-62.

WASHINGTON

REUTERS

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Gei-thner said on Friday that if Europemismanages its crisis it could slow

U.S. growth but said the U.S. financial sys-tem could handle any resulting pressures.

“The U.S. financial system is in a verystrong position to withstand the foresee-able pressures we might face from Eu-rope,” he said in an interview on americanPublic Media’s Marketplace program.

Geithner said that, on balance, Europewas making headway in efforts to deal withits sovereign debt crisis.

“I think they’ve made a lot of progressin the last few months in trying to bringback a measure of calm to their financialmarkets,” Geithner said.

Concern about spillover from Europe’scrisis led member countries of the Interna-tional Monetary Fund to agree last week-end to pledge an additional $430 billion tostrengthen its war chest in case other coun-tries are adversely affected.

Geithner, who heads to beijing withSecretary of State Hillary Clinton nextweek for the latest round of Strategic andEconomic Dialogue talks between the twocountries, was cautious when asked to as-sess relations between the two countries.

“better. better than it was,” he said,noting that a 13 percent real appreciationin the yuan’s value was “pretty good for us”since it reduces the competitive price ad-vantage that Chinese-made goods holdover U.S. products.

Geithner and Clinton will discuss a fullrange of issues, potentially anything fromcooperation on efforts to curb Iran’s nu-clear ambitions to currency values in twodays of talks May 3-4. He cited progress inseveral areas. “There’s better protection forintellectual property rights in , less piracyagainst U.S. firms, and China is graduallydismantling a range of the subsidies thattheir firms enjoy which gives them an un-fair advantage,” he said. There was stillwork to do, Geithner added, but “the basicdirection of reforms in China is fundamen-tally in our interest.”

china says Q2 trade growthto stabilize at ‘low level’

PASScO delay driveg Wet spell postpones gunny bag distribution

Geithner: US can withstandany Europe stresses

ISLAMABAD

ONLINE

MoRE than four thousand contractemployees of oil and Gas Develop-ment Company limited (oGDCl)

have vowed to stops work, close all the oil fieldsof the company in case of government failureto address their demands till June 05. Presi-dent of oil and Gas Development Companylimited (oGDCl) oil field welfare committeeMuhammad Younis during a press conferencehere on Saturday said that more than fourthousand workers were hired through thirdparty contract at Chanda, Mela and Nashpa oilfields of oGDCl. He said that these workersare working on contract basis from last eightyears in the company. He said that workers areperforming their duties at technical and nontechnical posts and their salaries are very lowMuhammad Younis said that workers serving

as technical staff are taking 12,000 rupeesmonthly salary while non-technical andhelpers are taking seven thousand rupeeswhich is insufficient to run their house busi-ness. He said that on certain occasions, welfarecommittee met with Syed Khursheed shah andthen Federal minister for Petroleum and natu-ral resources Syed Naveed Qamar and in-formed them about the miseries of theemployees but no action has been seen so farin this regard. He said that committee had ap-proached the court as well but their issues werenot addressed. President oGDCl oil fields wel-fare committee demanded President asif aliZardari, Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gi-lani and federal minister for Petroleum andnatural resources Dr asim Hussain to end thecontract system from the department and stepsshould be taken for welfare and regularizationof the employees. He also demanded to elimi-nate the contract system from the organization.

OGDcL employees vow to closeall the oil fields of company

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