CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 1

Eagle County Modeling Scenarios - Summary (All units mT CO2e unless otherwise noted)

Overarching Assumptions:

- HCE achieves 70% renewable electricity by 2022

- HCE achieves 100% renewable electricity by 2030

- Xcel Energy achieves 100% renewable electricity by 2050

(Dr Chavez add BAU assumptions)

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Comparison of Climate Action Emissions Reduction Potential

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 2

Sector Strategy

Emissions Reductions by 2050 (mT CO2e) Equivalent

Ease of Implementation

Energy Supply 100% Renewable Electricity N/A

Transportation EV Adoption 549,203 119,392 cars

Energy Supply Beneficial Electrification of Existing Buildings 473,633 101,531 households

Transportation 40% Reduction in VMT 349,823 76,048 cars

Transportation Workforce housing proximity to job centers 252,309 54,850 cars

Transportation Increase Transit Ridership 243,842 53,009 cars

Commercial + Residential Buildings Net Zero Construction 136,797 29,325 households

Energy Supply Ban all new natural gas by 2030 136,796 29,325 households

Waste Methane Capture in Landfill 84,385 66,445 Tons of MSW

Residential Buildings Expand EnergySmart Program 61,524 13,189 households

Waste Increase Compost Access 47,686 37,548 Tons of MSW

Commercial Buildings Commercial Benchmarking 47,480 10,178 households

Waste C&D Waste Diversion Requirement - Building Code 40,291 31,725 Tons of MSW

Residential Buildings HERS Rating Requirement 15,396 3,300 households

Waste Yard Waste Diversion 10,710 2,296 households

Waste Cardboard Ban 10,328 8,132 Tons of MSW

Waste Food Waste Reduction 7,676 6,044 Tons of MSW

Residential Buildings Smart Regs 2,698 578 households

Carbon Sequestration

Use of Open Space and soil amendments to increase carbon sequestration

Methane Capture RNG development from wastewater treatment plants

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 3

Top 5 Actions with highest emissions reduction potential

Note that projected savings exceed overall emissions due to overlap in emissions savings, specifically in transportation scenarios. Scenario projecting 40% reduction of VMT is omitted from this chart given that this goal is a result of individual actions such as those presented above.

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Proposed Climate Actions and Emissions Mitigation PotentialRequire all construction be net-zero by 2030/Ban use ofNatural Gas by 2030

5x current transit ridership by2030, 2.5% reduction annuallypost 2030

50% of all employed personslive within 5 miles of their placeof employment

Residential/CommercialConversion to Elec from NG

EV Adoption

Total BAU

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 4

2% adoption of EVs every year until 2030 and 5% every year until 2050

Assumptions:

Reduction is from BAU for just gasoline fueled vehicles.

No cap on max number of electric vehicles, resulting in a vehicle stock entirely electric and

diesel by 2046

Added emissions resulting from EV charging included, assuming an average efficiency of 268

Wh/mi Link

Quantitative Results:

BAU 2% adoption of EVs every year until 2030 and 5% every year until 2050

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL GHGs Mitigated

% Reduction from BAU

2017 455,566 455,566 0 0%

2020 475,712 475,712 0 0%

2025 523,370 484,357 39,012 7%

2030 578,136 480,074 98,062 17%

2035 632,029 410,791 221,238 35%

2040 683,586 323,797 359,789 53%

2045 732,773 221,049 511,724 70%

2050 780,098 230,895 549,203 70%

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 5

Convert 5% of existing residential properties from natural gas to electric every year beginning

in 2021

Assumptions:

Conversion is 5% of existing building stock after growth rate applied annually

5% reduction starts in 2021

All prior natural gas coverage area is accounted for by HCE

Quantitative Results

BAU Res & Comm

5% Conversion of Blds to Elec Annually

CO2e Saved Annually

% Reduction from BAU

2020 320,070 320,070 0 0.00%

2022 326,277 294,037 32,240 9.88%

2025 342,380 257,505 84,876 24.79%

2030 368,745 185,330 183,414 49.74%

2035 393,289 98,621 294,668 74.92%

2040 419,923 83 419,841 99.98%

2045 446,733 24 446,708 99.99%

2050 473,638 5 473,633 100.00%

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Residential & Commercial Energy - 5% Conversion of Blds to Elec Annually

BAU Res & Comm 5% Conversion of Blds to Elec Annually

Western Colorado UniversityCS2I Lab

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 6

50% of the working population lives 5 miles within work by 2030

Assumptions:

17.5% of people already live within 5 miles of work, interpolated from % Commutes <10 minutes

AND % commutes by walking, bus, bike or working from home (Census) Link

41.6% of VMT are for commuting (NHTS). Link

10% more people move within 5 miles of work annually 2021-2030 until remaining 32.5% of

people live within 5 miles of work by 2030.

95% of commuters use gasoline, 5% use diesel (BAU).

Single-unit truck, combination truck, and bus VMT’s omitted from commuting mileage reduction

No annual growth rate of VMT applied

BAU 50% of drivers live within 5 miles of work

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL Fuel GHGs Mitigated

% Reduction from BAU

2017 455,566 455,566 0 0%

2020 475,712 475,712 0 0%

2025 523,370 440,828 82,542 16%

2030 578,136 388,240 189,896 33%

2035 632,029 425,168 206,861 33%

2040 683,586 460,690 222,896 33%

2045 732,773 494,782 237,991 32%

2050 780,098 527,789 252,309 32%

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 7

5x Transit Ridership by 2030

Assumptions:

Ridership taken from APTA for available service providers (ECO, Town of Avon). Link

Town of Vail statistics taken from Year in Review report. Link

Bustang statistics taken from CDOT. Link

Only revenue miles used for calculation of increased ridership.

Projected passenger vehicle miles mitigated assumes 90% are solo drivers (NHTS), 50% full

busses (on average) and average number of bus seats from APTA. Link

Ridership continues to increase by 2.5% annually beyond 2030

Assume all resulting additional bus miles are electric, biodiesel or CNG, which are not modeled

Quantitative Results:

BAU 5x transit ridership by 2030

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL Fuel GHGs

TOTAL Fuel GHGs Mitigated

% Reduction from BAU

2017 455,566 455,566 0 0%

2020 475,712 475,712 0 0%

2025 523,370 442,089 81,281 16%

2030 578,136 417,174 160,962 28%

2035 632,029 449,147 182,882 29%

2040 683,586 480,385 203,202 30%

2045 732,773 509,251 223,522 31%

2050 780,098 536,256 243,842 31%

CS2I Lab Overall Action Results_ CAP Modeling 8

Require all construction be net-zero by 2030

Assumptions:

10% more of new stock is Net Zero annually starting in 2021 (i.e. 10% in 2021, 20% in 2022, etc.)

BAU Res & Comm

New blds Net Zero by 2030 (mt CO2e)

CO2e Saved Annually

% Reduction from BAU

2020 320,070 320,070 0 0.00%

2022 326,277 324,848 1,429 0.44%

2025 342,380 334,000 8,380 2.45%

2030 368,745 338,515 30,229 8.20%

2035 393,289 337,164 56,125 14.27%

2040 419,923 336,902 83,022 19.77%

2045 446,733 336,851 109,882 24.60%

2050 473,638 336,841 136,797 28.88%

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Residential & Commercial Energy - All New Blds Net Zero by 2030

BAU Res & Comm New blds Net Zero by 2030 (mt CO2e)

Western Colorado UniversityCS2I Lab