early maturity of grapevines in se australia between 1995 and 2009 was associated with early onset...
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Early maturity of grapevines in SE Australia between 1995 and 2009 was associated with early onset rather than faster ripening
Victor Sadras and Paul Petrie
CCRSPI Conference, Melbourne 15-17 February 2011
Aim 1measure the effects of elevated temperature on vines and wines
temperature x variety
temperature x fruit load
temperature x water
Time (day of year)
0 20 40 60 800
10
20
30S
ug
ar c
on
cen
trat
ion
(%
)
Aim 2modelling grapevine maturity for harvest and post-harvest operations
Aim 2modelling grapevine maturity for harvest and post-harvest operations
Current approach - direct measurements - fixed rate 1 oBé per week
Sadras et al. (2008) Australian J Grape & Wine Research 14, 250
b
xx
e
SS
0
1
max
Cab Sauvignon, 1993-2006
Rate of change in time to 12 Be
Petrie & Sadras (2008) Australian J Grape & Wine Research 14: 33
Rate [d/yr]
1. Sadras VO, Petrie PR (2011). Quantifying the onset, rate and duration of sugar accumulation in berries from commercial vineyards in contrasting climates of Australia. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research in press.
2. Sadras VO, Petrie PR (2011). Climate shifts in south-eastern Australia: early maturity of Chardonnay, Shiraz, and Cabernet Sauvignon is associated with early onset rather than faster ripening. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research in press.
- Data from commercial vineyards
- Three vintages (2007 to 2009)
- Three regions:•Riverland, mean January temperature above 23 oC•Barossa Valley, 21.0 < mean January temperature < 22.9 oC •Coonawarra, 19.0 < mean January temperature < 20.9 oC
- Major varieties in each region
study 1
Thermal time (oC d)
Thermal time (oC d)
Thermal time (oC d)
90th percentile
Thermal time (oC d)
Cabernet Sauvignonn = 3148
0 300 600 900 12000
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Merlotn = 451
Thermal time (oCd)
To
tal s
olu
ble
so
lids
(oB
é)
Shirazn = 1696
0 300 600 900 1200
Chardonnayn = 535
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18Coonawarra
Coonawarrar = 0.90P < 0.0001
Vapour pressure (kPa)
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7
Gap
(oB
é)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
ChardonnayMerlotCab SauvignonShiraz
- Data from commercial vineyards
- 15 vintages (1995 and 2009).
- Three regions:•Riverland, mean January temperature above 23 oC•Barossa Valley, 21.0 < mean January temperature < 22.9 oC •Coonawarra, 19.0 < mean January temperature < 20.9 o
-Cab Sauvignon, Shiraz, Chardonnay
-15 vintages x 3 climatic regions range of - average seasonal temperature 5 oC - VPDmax: 1.4 kPa
study 2
1998
2004
2010M
ean
tem
per
atu
re(o
C)
15
20
1998
2004
2010
1998
2004
2010
Coonawarra Barossa Riverland
Vintage
Rad
(M
J m
-2)
20
25E
vap
(m
m)
5
10
1998
2004
2010
VP
Dm
ax
(kP
a)
1
2
3
1998
2004
2010
1998
2004
2010
Vintage
Coonawarra Barossa Riverland
cool
0
4
8
12
16
hot
n = 793
0 40 80 1200
4
8
12
16
n = 1624
0 40 80 120To
tal s
olu
ble
so
lids
(oB
é)
0
4
8
12
16
n = 1134
n = 877
n = 3588
n = 3946
Coonawarra
n = 1505
0 40 80 120
n = 1587
0 40 80 120
n = 2682
n = 6052
Day of year
n = 1568
n = 9705
cool hot
Barossa
n = 4414
0 40 80 120
n = 1612
0 40 80 120
n = 1704
n = 5465 n = 5285
n = 4128
cool hot
Riverland
Ch
ardo
nn
ayS
hiraz
Cab
Sav
15 16 17 18 19 20 21Tim
e o
f 12
oB
é (d
ay o
f ye
ar)
0
20
40
60
80
100
r2 = 0.87P < 0.0001
Average temperature (oC)
-9.8 ± 0.94 days per oC
ChardonnayShirazCab Sauvignon
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
On
set
(day
of
year
)
-20
0
20
40
60
15 16 17 18 19 20 21R
ate
(oB
é d
-1)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
ChardonnayShirazCab Sauvignon
Average temperature (oC)
r2 = 0.81P < 0.0001 P > 0.14
Onset (day of year)
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Tim
e o
f 12
oB
é
(da
y o
f ye
ar)
0
20
40
60
80
100 ChardonnayShirazCab Sauvignon
r2 = 0.86P < 0.0001
Rate (oBé d-1)
0.08 0.12 0.16 0.200
20
40
60
80
100
r2 = 0.21P = 0.056
Growers, vineyard and weight bridge staff from Treasury Wine Estates Ltd. for collecting the maturity and yield data.
Harry Driscoll for help with the database.
Francisco Sadras and Mary Barnes for help with data analyses.
Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation of Australia and the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries for financial support.
Thanks
ConclusionsWarming is a complex syndrome including biologically relevant factors such as higher vapour pressure deficit with direct consequences for grapevine ripening.
Early ripening associated with the warming syndrome over recent decades has been primarily related to shifts in onset rather than increase in rate of ripening.
A simple onset-rate model can be coupled with (i) short-term temperature forecasts to predict the trajectory of sugaring for management purposes, and (ii) long-term records of temperature to produce probabilistic profiles of maturity date.