Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Early Warning Systems in Somalia

& Key Climate Risks

2nd Arab Conference on Disaster Risk ReductionSharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt, 14-16 September 2014

andHumanitarian Partnership Conference - Nairobi

16th - 18th September 2014

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Presentation Outline

• Early warning systems in Somalia

• Key climate risks faced in Somalia

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Early Warning Systems in Somalia • Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS

NET) o since 1985 worldwide, since 1995 in Somalia

o Leading provider of information and analysis on food security• Resources for governments, international relief agencies, NGOs,

researchers, humanitarian response planers, and journalists

o To project food security outcomes in the future FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions • regarding likely events, their potential impact, and probable

responses of various actors

o Assumptions are interpreted in the context of the current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario• Typically for six months

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Early Warning Systems in Somalia

Other information collection bodies in Somalia and FEWS NET’s partners

o Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU)• A project managed by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) • A primary source for information on food security, nutrition, and

livelihoods in Somalia

o Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) • an information management unit within FAO Somalia focusing on

water and rainfall

o Somalia Resilience Program (SomRep) • A multi-year effort by seven leading NGOs (World Vision, Oxfam,

DRC, COOPI, CARE, ADRA, and ACF) • Designed to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts and reduce

chronic vulnerability through early action

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Early Warning Systems in Somalia

National disaster management agencies

o National Environment Research and Disaster Preparedness and Management Authority (NERAD) in Somaliland

o Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) in Puntland

o Somali Disaster Management Agency (SDMA) in South-Central Somalia

Sources of Data and Tools : Livelihoods

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Sources of Data and Tools : Remote Sensing

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• Mapviewer (USGS)

• RFE rainfall plots

http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews/mapviewer/

CHIRPS – monthly: USGS/UCSB-CHG, InfraRed unbiased by climatology, added stations. 1981-present, 5Km, global 50N-50S, 5 days total.

Sources of Data and Tools : FEWS NET Data Portal

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Sources of Data and Tools : Water Requirements Satisfaction

Index (WRSI)

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Sources of Data and Tools : Regional and National Climate

Partners

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Sources of Data and Tools : Market Information

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Sources of Data and Tools : Databases

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9 Steps of Scenario Development

STEP 1: Set scenario

parameters

STEP 2: Describe and

classify current food security

STEP 3: Develop key assumptions

STEP 4: Describe impacts

on HH income sources

STEP 5: Describe impacts

on HH food sources

STEP 6: Develop response

assumptions

STEP 7: Describe and

classify projected HH food security

STEP 8: Describe and

classify projected area food security

STEP 9: Identify events which

could change the scenario

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Examples of Early Warning : Price Projections

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Key Climate Risks

• Drought

• Floods

• Cyclones

2010/11 Severe drought analysis

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Key Climate Risks: Drought

1995-1996

1996-1997

1997-1998

1998-1999

1999-2000

2000-2001

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010- May 25,

2011

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Wajir District, Kenya Hiran, Somalia Middle Shabelle, Somalia Gedo, Somalia MEAN

Tota

l R

ain

fall

Apri

l 1 -

June 3

0

(mm

)

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Key Climate Risks: River Flooding• The

Shabelle River routinely breaks 12 points within 90 km – A distance between Jawhar and Balad twons

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Key Climate Risks: Cyclones2014 cyclone impacts in Jariban Town, Dangorayo, Iskusuban, and Bay Districts in

Puntland

Source: HADMA

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Apr-1

0

Jun-

10

Aug-1

0

Oct-1

0

Dec-1

0

Feb-

11

Apr-1

1

Jun-

11

Aug-1

1

Oct-1

1

Dec-1

1

Feb-

12

Apr-1

2

Jun-

12(5,000)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Excess Deaths

Early warning timeline

Source: Checchi et al, 2013

Early Warning, Famine declarations, End of Famine

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Early Warning Products