earth: our life support system
DESCRIPTION
The industrial activities of mankind are fundamentally altering the Earth's atmosphere with society altering consequences. These slides present the fundamentals of human driven global warming and climate change, show how the effects of climate change are already have a significant impact on both human and ecological systems, and clarify why urgent action to address the most challenging issue facing us today is an absolute necessity. The solutions to climate change are within our grasp and present world-altering possibilities. But it will take will power and a globally coordinated effort to make them a reality.TRANSCRIPT
Earth: Our Life Support SystemHow human-driven climate change is impacting our world and what we can do about it
Image: SteelCityHobbies / Flickr
Scuba divers rely on a life support system to survive in a beautiful but hostile surrounding.
…We’re now making sudden changes to our own life support system.
A sudden change to that system can be life-threatening…
…will be a lot like our pastEvery day we bet that our future…
Climate dictates how and where we build…
..what food we grow…
..where we get our water…
…and how we design our
infrastructure
Climate is not the same as weather. Weather helps us decide what clothes to wear. Climate
helps us decide what clothes to buy.
How do we know the Earthis warming?
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Global Surface Temperature Source: NASA GISS
Indicators of a Warming World
Tree lines shifting poleward & upward
Humidity rising
Sea levels rising Sea ice declining
Ice sheets declining
Air temperature near surface rising
Species migrating poleward & upward
Permafrost retreating poleward
Glaciers retreating
Ocean heat content rising
Spring arriving earlier
Image concept:Skeptical Science
Are we the cause?
Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.
–
U.S. National Research Council
What is “man-made global warming”?
“Man-made”
Global WarmingCertain industrial activities of mankind including…
Fossil fuel power productionAutomobile combustionDeforestation…and many more
Have fundamentally changed the composition of Earth’s atmosphere.
These atmospheric changes have increased the Earth’s greenhouse effect and altered the global climate with significant impacts on both human and ecological systems.
Five Key Points to Discuss
The greenhouse effect is vital to the Earth’s climate
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is vital to the greenhouse effect
Human activities are significantly impacting global CO2 levels
Changes in climate can have significant detrimental impacts
There are significant opportunities in solutions
What is the greenhouse effect?
The Greenhouse Effect
Some sunlightis reflected backinto space.
Some becomesheat.
Greenhouse gases in theatmosphere trap some of this heat, keeping the Earth warm.
How important is the greenhouse effectto Earth’s climate?
The Inner Solar System
Mercury Venus Earth Mars
Mercury
Mercury is over 2 ½ times smaller than the Earth
Mercury is over 2 ½ times closer to the Sun
Image: NASA
Mercury
800oF (427oC)
-280oF (-173oC)
Average maximum temperature
Average minimum temperature
* The coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was -128.6oF in the middle of Antarctica!
With no greenhouse effect, Mercury cannot retain the energy received from the Sun.
*
Image: NASA
Venus
864oF (462oC)
Average global temperature
Despite being further from the Sun, Venus gets hotter than Mercury thanks to its dense atmosphere
and immense greenhouse effect.
Image: NASA
A Thin Blue LineThe troposphere extends onlyabout 12 miles above theEarth’s surface at itsmaximum…
…thinner than an apple’s skin
Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be a frozen ball of ice, floating in space.
But how important is carbon dioxide (CO2
)to the greenhouse effect?
OK. So, the greenhouse effect is important.
Earth’s Atmosphere
Source: Encyclopedia of Earth
Image: NASA
Nitrogen78.08%
Oxygen20.95%
Water Vapor0 – 4%
Argon0.93%
Carbon Dioxide0.04%
The entire greenhouse effect is dependent on less than 3% of the Earth’s atmosphere
GreenhouseGases
The Water Cycle
Snowmelt Runoff
Surface Runoff
Evaporation
Transpiration
PrecipitationCondensation
Water vapor cycles through the atmosphere in only 7-10 days.
Image concept: NOAA
Water Vapor in the AtmosphereTotal Precipitable Water Vapor (mm), May 2009
Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite
0 6015 30 45
Due to its short atmospheric lifetime, water vapor varies wildly from place to place
National G
eographic
National G
eographic
The Carbon Cycle
Fossil Fuels
EmissionsRespirationPhotosynthesisExchange of CO2
Long term
Exchange of CO2
Marine Deposits
Rock Weathering
Fossil Fuel
Emissions
Volcanic Eruptions
Short Term
Waste & Decay of Dead Organisms
CO2
Once elevated, CO2 can remain in the atmosphere for
hundreds of years
Image concept:U.S. National Research Council
Carbon Dioxide in the AtmosphereCarbon Dioxide in the Mid-Troposphere, July 2009
Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's Aqua Satellite
Unlike water vapor, CO2 gets well mixed throughout the atmosphere
Space
Heat PlinkoEarth Surface
• All heat leaving the surface must eventually return to space
• The longer heat takes to escape, the warmer a region can become on average
• Carbon dioxide “pegs” get evenly distributed throughout the atmosphere
• Water vapor “pegs” vary both laterally and vertically in the atmosphere
• As greenhouse gases, both water vapor and carbon dioxide delay heat escaping to space
The Rules
• Heat can be reemitted in any direction
• Additional carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for over 100 years
Result: The effects of additional carbon dioxide are felt everywhere for a very long time
Carbon Dioxide Water VaporHeat
The Game OfEa
rth’
s A
tmos
pher
e
Desert JungleEarth Surface
So how are human activities impactingthe level of CO2
in the atmosphere?
Changing the Face of a Planet
In 2008, there were 852 surface coal mines in the United States alone
Deforestation is the 2nd largest human contributor to CO2 emissions after fossil fuel combustion
The Bagger 288 is ½ the height of the Empire State Building
Over 1 billion cars drive on the world’s roads
U.S
. Geological S
urvey
Stephen C
odrington
The impact of humans is unprecedented in the 4.5 billion year history of planet Earth.
Changing the Face of a Planet
Source: NASA
How do human emissions of CO2
compare to natural emissions?
The Carbon Balance, Single Year –
1990s
+444 -444 +332 -332+23
Fossil Fuel Burning
Vegetation & Land Ocean
+ 444+ 332+ 23- 450- 338
Sources
Sinks
+ 11 TOTAL
Carbon Balance
-450 -338
Data source: IPCC AR4Figures are in billion tonnes of CO2
Industrial emissions are throwing off a natural balance achieved over thousands of years
Image concept: Skeptical Science
5,0005,000
Day 1: +1 lb.
Day 2: +2 lb.
Day 3: +3 lb.
Day 30: +30 lb.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Tipping the Scale, Carbon Accumulation
0.04%
0.06%
0.60%
0.02%
% of 5K
TOTAL: 465 lb. 9.30%
5,000
5,000
While single year emissions are dismissible, multi-year accumulation can result in a climate imbalance
Sources Sinks
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1751
1766
1781
1796
1811
1826
1841
1856
1871
1886
1901
1916
1931
1946
1961
1976
1991
2006
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
of C
arbo
n
Total
Gas fuel
Liquid fuelSolid fuel
CementGas flares
Year
Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions
Source: U.S. DOE CDIAC
2010 emissions jumped by 564 million metric tons, an increase of 6% over 2009 levels, a new annual
record and exceeding worst-case scenarios
Atmospheric CO2
for 800,000 Years
Source: US Global Change Research Program
“Generally accepted modern understanding of the global carbon cycle indicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere will persist for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years into the future.”- Archer et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jan 2009
Checkpoint
The greenhouse effect is vitally important to the Earth’s climate
This greenhouse effect is provided by an incredibly thin atmosphere
Over 97% of the atmosphere has nothing to do with this effect
Water vapor and CO2 are the primary natural greenhouse gases
Water vapor is far too short-lived to drive long-term climate
CO2 levels can remain elevated for hundreds, even thousands, of years
The effects from CO2 on the atmosphere are both global and long-term
Human actions have risen CO2 levels by 40% in just over 100 years
What about natural climate influences?
Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influences cannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surface temperatures observed during the second half of the 20th century…A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide may be rising faster than at any time in Earth’s history…
–
American Institute of Physics
Earth’s Orbital Cycles
22.5o
24.5o
Vega NorthStar
Eccentricity100,000 years
Obliquity41,000 years
Precession22,000 years
Current climate influence: Cooling
Volcanic EruptionsMt. Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991
Mt. St. Helens, United States, 1980
El Chichón, Mexico, 1982
Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, 2011
USGS: Human activities release over 100 times more CO2 annually than all of
the Earth’s volcanoes combined.
Climate influence: Cooling
“The most significant climate impacts from volcanic injections into the stratosphere come from aerosols [which] increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere.”- U.S. Geological Survey
U.S
. Geological S
urvey
U.S
. Geological S
urvey
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)(Source: NOAA CPC) (normalized)
Climate Factors “ENSO is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenonto cause global climate variability on interannual time scales.”- Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA ESRL, Jan 2011
30-year climate influence: Stasis
ENSO30-year climate influences
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Climate Factors
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)(Source: JISAO) (normalized)
“The PDO has experienced phase shifts that coincided with themajor periods of warming and cooling in the 20th Century.”- Dr. Roy Spencer, UAH, Oct 2008
ENSO
30-year climate influence: Cooling
ENSO PDO30-year climate influences
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Climate Factors
Total Solar Irradiance (TSI)(Source: PMOD / WRC) (normalized)
“The Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 yearswhile the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time.”- Prof. Sami K. Solanki, Max-Planck Society, Aug 2004
ENSO
PDO
30-year climate influence: Cooling
ENSO PDO TSI30-year climate influences
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Climate Factors
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2 )(Source: ESRL) (normalized)
“CO2 concentration...shows no signs of leveling, thus leaving little doubtthat the global CO2 …will be reaching 390 ppm by the end of 2010.”- NASA DISC, Jul 2010
ENSO
PDOTSI
30-year climate influence: Warming
ENSO PDO TSI CO230-year climate influences
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Climate Factors
Near Surface Temperature(Source: UAH T2LT) (normalized)
Half of the globe has warmed at least 0.5oF in the past 30 years, whilehalf of that - a full quarter of the globe - warmed at least one full degree.- Dr. John Christy, UAH, Dec 2008
ENSO
PDOTSI
CO230-year temperature trend: Warming
ENSO PDO TSI CO230-year climate influences
What about the Sun?
Solar Activity vs. Global Temperature
1365
1365.5
1366
1366.5
1367
1367.5
1368
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Tota
l Sol
ar Ir
radi
ance
(W/m
2 )
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
(°C
)
Temperatures have risen for more than 30 years while solar activity has declined
Source: NASA GISS, Max Planck Institute, World Radiation Center
Global Atmospheric Temperatures
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2 Lower Stratosphere
Lower Troposphere
Cooling
Warming
Increases in greenhouse gases cause tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, unlike increased solar activity
Source: UAH
Nighttime Heat Records –
July 2011
An increased greenhouse effect causes an increase in nighttime temperatures
Source: NOAA
What difference does a littlewarming make?
Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought…The repercussions for agriculture and ecology are likely to be severe.
–
Society of Biology, UK
Loading the Climate Dice
Current climate Future climate
Increase inaverage
temperature
Lesscold
weather
Morehot
weather Moreextreme
hotweather
Cold HotAverageTemperature
Pro
babi
lity
of o
ccur
renc
e
Record Highs and Lows in the U.S.
1.09:10.77:1 0.78:1
1.14:11.36:1
2.04:1
1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s90s 2000s
record highs
record lows
Source: NCAR
Precipitation Extremes –
May 2011Record Driest
Much Below Normal
Below Normal
Near Normal
Above Normal
Much Above Normal
Record Wettest1 = Driest
117 = Wettest
May 2011 saw more of the country experiencing severe to extreme wet and dry conditions at the same
time than during any other month in history
19.5% of the country severe to extreme dry
35.2% of the country severe to extreme wet
Texas Drought 20112011
Source: Dr. John Nielsen-GammonTexas State Climatologist
Texas Drought 2011
October 4, 2011
Level Description % of State
D4 Exceptional Drought 87.99
D3 Extreme Drought 96.99
D2 Severe Drought 99.16
D1 Moderate Drought 100.00
D0 Abnormally Dry 100.00
Nothing No Drought 0.00
Driest 4 month period in historyDriest 6 month period in historyDriest 12 month period in history
Source: NOAA NCDC
Can’t we just adapt?
Texas Drought 2011Cattle population reduced by over 650,000
Up to 500 million trees lost
Dust build-up causes power outages
$7.6 billion in agricultural losses
3.5 million acres burned in wildfires
Water shortages throughout state
Sources:Texas Forest Service
Texas AgriLife ExtNOAA
Texas Parks and W
ildlife
Jay Janner / American-StatesmanK
en Childress
CenterP
ointEnergy
Robert Burns / Texas AgriLife Extension
Eric G
ay / AP
U.S. Extremes 2011Snow melt and massive rainfall lead
to record flooding on Mississippi and Missouri rivers
Arizona (500,000 acres) and New Mexico (300,000 acres) have their
largest wildfires on record.
New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana experience their most
intense drought on record.
Two largest tornado outbreaks in history occur in a single month.
Associated P
ress
Dusty C
ompton / AP
Steve Zum
walt/ FE
MA
Scott O
lson / Getty Im
ages
U.S. Spring Tornadoes –
1950-2011To
rnad
o C
ount
Satellite Images: Google Earth
May 25, 2011June 16, 2009
Joplin, Missouri
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Dusty C
ompton / A
PM
ike Gullett/ A
P
14 Billion Dollar Events –
U.S. in 2011$1.8 billion Groundhog Day blizzard
January 29-February 3, 2011
$2.2 billion Southeast/Midwest tornadoesApril 8-11, 2011
$2.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoesApril 14-16, 2011
$10.2 billion Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoesApril 25-28, 2011
$9.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoesMay 22-27, 2011
$1.3 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoes and severe weatherJune 18-22, 2011
$10.0 billion Southern Plains/Southwest drought and heatwaveSpring-Fall, 2011
$3.5 billion Mississippi River floodingSpring-Summer, 2011
$1.0 billionJuly 10-14, 2011Rockies and Midwest Severe Weather
$2.8 billionApril 4-5, 2011Midwest/Southeast tornadoes
$2.0 billionSummer, 2011Upper Midwest flooding
$7.3 billionAugust 20-29, 2011Hurricane Irene
$1.0 billionSeptember, 2011Tropical Storm Lee
$1.0 billion Texas, New Mexico, Arizona wildfiresSpring-Fall, 2011
Source: NOAA
Global Extremes 2010-2011Russia endures worst heat
wave in over 130 years (2010)
Flooding in France worst since 1837 (2010)
Amazon experiences 2nd
“100-year-drought” in 5 years (2010)
Thailand receives over 7 ft of rain, 41% above average (2011)
Extra-tropical cyclone brings hurricane winds to Alaska (2011)
East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years leaves 10 million in need of aid (2011)
China: Worst drought in a century impacts over 60
million (2010)
Wettest spring on record floods eastern Australia (2011)
Adrees Latif / Reuters
Sebastien Nogier / ReutersNO
AA
Tracy Woods / AP
PB
S
AP
Gabriel E
lizondo
Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the further weakening of fragile governments…While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict….
–
U.S. Department of Defense
Pakistan Flooding 2010
20 million people affected
$9.7 billion in damages
20% of the country underwater
2,000 people killed
“The crisis may undermine the already waning legitimacy of the civilian government by demonstrating its ineffectiveness to large numbers of
Pakistanis in need of public services, while improving the status of Pakistan’s powerful military by the more visible role it played in providing disaster relief. It may also provide militants an opportunity to garner favor
with affected communities by giving militants an opportunity to demonstrate that they can provide assistance in areas where the government is absent.”
- Congressional Research Service, November 2010
ShakilA
dil/ APFlood image: Daniel Berehulak / Getty Images
Ocean Acidification
Coral reefs provide homes for up to 25% of oceanic life & up to a billion people rely on
fish as their main source of protein
CO2
pH
Station ALOHA Curve
Rising atmospheric CO2 results in lower oceanic pH
Vibrant seascape at Castello Aragonese near the coast of Italy
A few hundred yards away where CO2 from a volcanic vent acidifies the water
Source: c-more
David-Liittschw
ager/ National G
eographic
Ocean Acidification
A pteropod shell placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100
Pteropods are at the base of many oceanic food chains
Pteropod Humpback Whales Salmon Cod
Ocean acidity has increased 30% since the start of the Industrial Revolution
Pteropod images: National Geographic
NO
AA
Patrick G
ijsbers
Morgan B
ond
Russ H
opcroft/ UA
F
The current rate of change is much more rapid than during any event over the last 65 million years. These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversible for many thousands of years, and the biological consequences could last much longer.
–
InterAcademy
Panel
Checkpoint
No group of natural factors has been found to explain recent warming
Without human influence, global temperatures would likely be cooling
Solar activity has declined over the last 30 years while temps have risen
Rises in average temp bring more hot weather and less cold weather
Rises in average temp can also exacerbate extreme weather events
Inaction on climate change has its own associated costs
Acidification can impact entire food chains and human populations
Why the urgency to take action?
Climate InertiaRising atmospheric temperatures take time to be reflected throughout the climate system
Once underway, changes have momentum and require time to slow or reverse
“The feeling is that if things are getting bad, you hit the stop button. But even if you do, the climate continues to change.”- Dr. Gerald Meehl, U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research
Climate Feedbacks
Increased low clouds reflect more sunlight
Less Warming
Increased high clouds trap more heat near the surface
More Warming
Melting leads to less ice reflecting sunlight
More Warming
Feedbacks are natural responses that encourage either more or less warming
More water vapor leads to increased greenhouse effect
More Warming
Melting ice & permafrost releasegreenhouse gases into the atmosphere
More Warming
Oceans absorb more carbon from the atmosphere
Less WarmingPlants absorb more carbon
from the atmosphere
Less Warming
Tipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.
Continual small-scale stress on a system can reach a point of large- scale change.
Slowing or reversal of forest carbon intake
Feedback ShiftTipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.
LessWarming
to MoreWarming
Bark beetles have devastated massive forest regions throughout the U.S. & Canada
Two “one-hundred-year” droughts in 5 years turned Amazon rainforests from carbon sinks to carbon sources
National G
eographic
Canada M
inistry of Forests
“The carbon-regulating services of forests are at risk of being lost…this would result in the release of huge quantities of carbon to the atmosphere.”- International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO)
James Woodcock / Billings Gazette
Slowing of ocean carbon intake
Feedback ShiftTipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.
LessWarming
to MoreWarming
At least two studies have found the carbon-absorbing ability of both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean to be slowing.
“We estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004…We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities.”- Le Quéré et al., Science, June 2007
Colder ocean waters can absorb more
carbon dioxide than warmer waters
Global Sea Surface Temperatures(April 18, 2000)
N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5
Source: NASA MODIS Oceans Group
Large-scale methane releases from melting permafrost
Tipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable.
“High latitude wetlands are currently only a small source of methane, but for these emissions to increase by a third in just five years is very significant. It shows that even a relatively small amount of warming can cause a large increase in the amount of methane emissions.”- Dr. Paul Palmer, Edinburgh University, January 2010
Permafrost contains about 1,400 gigatons of carbon, more than 1½ times the carbon currently in the atmosphere
Methane is a strong greenhouse gas.
NS
IDC
Sergey Zim
ovKatey
Walter
What can we do about it?
Energy Efficiency
Silver Buckshot
Renewable Energy
Nuclear & Low Carbon Energy
Reforestation & Preservation
Adaptation & Mitigation
There is no single solution to the climate change problem
Piccolo N
amek
Nick Dennison
Stonehaven
Productions
Never Underestimate What’s Possible
October 4, 1957Sputnik, the first manmade object
to orbit the Earth, is launched
July 20, 1969Neil Armstrong and Buz Aldrin
become the first men on the moon
NA
SA
NA
SA
JPL
Never Underestimate What’s Possible
1946ENIAC, the first computer, is
announced as the “first giant brain”
2011Watson, a computer, defeats the top
two “Jeopardy!” champions in history
U.S
. Arm
y
IBM
CheckpointHuman society depends on climate stability and predictability
Earth’s climate vitally depends on the greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases are only a tiny fraction of Earth’s very thin atmosphere
CO2 is the primary long-term driver of changes in the greenhouse effect
Industrial activities have elevated CO2 higher than in over 800,000 years
Rises in average temperature can exacerbate extreme weather events
Climate tipping points can result in rapid, large-scale changes
Climate change is having and will have a substantial economic impact
Action related to climate change must be broad-based and global
Consensus Scientific Organizations
Academia Brasiliera de Ciências, BrazilAcademia Chilena de CienciasAcademia das Ciencias de LisboaAcademia de Ciencias de la República DominicanaAcademia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de VenezuelaAcademia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de GuatemalaAcademia Mexicana de Ciencias,MexicoAcademia Nacional de Ciencias del PeruAcademia Sinica, Taiwan, ChinaAcademy of AthensAcademy of Science of South Africa, South AfricaAcademy of Sciences of the Czech RepublicAcademy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of IranAcademy of Scientific Research and Technology, EgyptAcademy of the Royal Society of New ZealandAcadémie des Sciences et Techniques du SénégalAcadémie des Sciences, FranceAccademia Nazionale dei Lincei, ItalyAfrica Centre for Climate and Earth Systems ScienceAfrican Academy of SciencesAkademi Sains Malaysia
Albanian Academy of SciencesAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Association of State ClimatologistsAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAmerican Statistical AssociationAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersAustralian Academy of ScienceAustralian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS)Bangladesh Academy of SciencesBotanical Society of AmericaBritish Antarctic SurveyBulgarian Academy of SciencesCameroon Academy of SciencesCanadian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyCaribbean Academy of Sciences
The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.
Consensus Scientific Organizations
Chinese Academy of SciencesColombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural SciencesCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, AustraliaCroatian Academy of Arts and SciencesCrop Science Society of AmericaCuban Academy of SciencesDelegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and LettersDeutsche Akademie der Naturforscher, Leopoldina, GermanyEcological Society of AmericaEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Science Foundation – Marine BoardFederation of Australian Scientific and Technological SocietiesGeological Society of AmericaGeological Society of AustraliaGeorgian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science Academy, IndiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesIslamic World Academy of SciencesIsrael Academy of Sciences and Humanities
International Council for ScienceInternational Union of Geodesy and GeophysicsInternational Union of Pure and Applied PhysicsKenya National Academy of SciencesKorean Academy of Science and TechnologyKosovo Academy of Sciences and ArtsMauritius Academy of Science and TechnologyMontenegrin Academy of Sciences and ArtsNational Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, ArgentinaNational Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz RepublicNational Academy of Sciences, Sri LankaNational Academy of Sciences, United States of AmericaNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Council of Engineers AustraliaNational Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New ZealandNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNatural Science Collections AllianceNigerian Academy of SciencesNorwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters
The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.
Consensus Scientific Organizations
Organization of Biological Field StationsPakistan Academy of SciencesPalestine Academy for Science and TechnologyRoyal Academies for Science and the Arts of BelgiumRoyal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of SpainRoyal Danish Academy of Sciences and LettersRoyal Irish AcademyRoyal Meteorological SocietyRoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and SciencesRoyal Scientific Society of JordanRoyal Society of Canada, CanadaRoyal Society, United KingdomRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRussian Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanScientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Serbian Academy of Sciences and ArtsSlovak Academy of SciencesSlovenian Academy of Sciences and ArtsSociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaSudanese National Academy of ScienceTanzania Academy of SciencesTurkish Academy of SciencesTWAS, The Academy of Sciences for the Developing WorldUganda National Academy of SciencesUnion der Deutschen Akademien der WissenschaftenUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchWorld Forestry CongressZimbabwe Academy of Sciences
The following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions from human activities on global climate and the global biosphere.
Additional Resources
Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine– http://scentofpine.org/
Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine – YouTube Channel– http://www.youtube.com/user/FreshAirScentOfPine/
U.S. National Academy of Sciences – Climate Choices– http://americasclimatechoices.org/
NASA – Global Climate Change– http://climate.nasa.gov
NOAA Climate Services– http://www.climate.gov/
U.S. EPA – Climate Change– http://epa.gov/climatechange/
Nature – Climate Change– http://www.nature.com/nclimate/
UK Met Office – Climate Change– http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange
UCAR: In Depth – Weather on Steroids– https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/attribution
Climate Central– http://www.climatecentral.org/
Visit the following resources for additional information on global climate change.
Resources & References
Resources & ReferencesSlide 5 – Global Surface Temperatures
– NASA GISSSlide 6 – Climate Change Indicators
– Glacial Retreat – World Glacier Monitoring Service– Upper Ocean Heat Content – NOAA PMEL– Is Antarctica Melting? – NASA– Arctic Sea Ice Extent – University of Illinois– Arctic Sea Ice Volume – Polar Science Center– Sea Level Rise – NOAA NCDC– Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence; Willett, Katharine M. et al.; Nature;
DOI:10.1038/nature06207; Oct 2007– Humans have made the skies more moist; Hopkin, Michael; Nature; DOI:10.1038/news.2007.158; Oct 2007– A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems; Parmesan, Camille & Gary Yohe;
Nature; DOI:10.1038/nature01286; Jan 2003– Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010)
Slide 8 – U.S. National Research Council– America’s Climate Choices
Slide 13 – The Greenhouse Effect– Encyclopedia of Earth – The Greenhouse Effect
Slide 16 – Mercury– Mercury Transit – NASA SOHO
Slide 17 – Mercury– Temperature Range – National Geographic– Earth’s coldest temperature – Live Science– NASA: Messenger
Resources & ReferencesSlide 18 – Venus
– Venus – National GeographicSlide 19 – A Thin Blue Line
– How High Does the Atmosphere Go? – UCAR– NOAA: National Weather Service - Layers of the Atmosphere
Slide 21 – Earth’s Atmosphere– Atmospheric Composition – Encyclopedia of Earth– Greenhouse Gases – NOAA NCDC– Image: Thin Blue Line – NASA
Slide 22 – The Water Cycle– YouTube – NASA: Earth Science Week – Water. Water, Everywhere!
Slide 23 – Water Vapor in the Atmosphere– Global Total Precipitable Water Vapor – AIRS – NASA JPL
Slide 24 – The Carbon Cycle– U.S. National Research Council (NRC) – Ocean Acidification: Starting with the Science
Slide 25 – Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere– Global Carbon Dioxide Transport – AIRS – NASA JPL
Slide 28 – Changing the Face of a Planet– NASA Earth Observatory – Tropical Deforestation– World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units – WardsAuto (Aug 15, 2011)– CO2 Emissions from Forest Loss; van der Werf, et al.; Nature Geoscience; DOI:10.1038/ngeo671; Nov 2009– Bagger 288 – Wikipedia– Most Requested Statistics – U.S. Coal Industry – National Mining Association
Resources & ReferencesSlide 29 – Changing the Face of a Planet
– Earth at Night – NASASlide 31 – The Carbon Balance, Single Year
– IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007Slide 33 – Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions
– Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions – CDIAC– Washington Post – Global CO2 emissions rising faster than worst-case scenarios (Nov 4, 2011)– Record High 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture – CDIAC
Slide 34 – Atmospheric CO2 for 800,000 Years– Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. – U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009)– Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide; Archer, David et al.; Annual Review of Earth and Planetary
Sciences; DOI:10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206; Jan 2009Slide 37 – American Institute of Physics Quote
– AIP – Statement on Human Impacts on Climate ChangeSlide 38 – Earth’s Orbital Cycles
– NOAA – Astronomical Theory of Climate ChangeSlide 39 – Volcanic Eruptions
– USGS – Volcanic Gases and Climate Change OverviewSlide 40 – Climate Factors – ENSO
– NOAA CPC – ENSO Impacts– NOAA ESRL – Multivariate ENSO Index
Slide 41 – Climate Factors – PDO– JISAO – PDO Index– Roy W. Spencer: Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the PDO
Resources & ReferencesSlide 42 – Climate Factors – TSI
– Max Planck Institute – Solar Variability and Climate– World Radiation Center (WRC) – Solar Constant– PMOD/WRC – Solar Irradiance Composite
Slide 43 – Climate Factors – CO2– NASA GES DISC – New AIRS data view; rising global CO2– NOAA ESRL – Atmospheric CO2
Slide 44 – Near Surface Temperature– UAH: Earth has warmed 0.4 C in 30 years– UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere
Slide 47 – Global Atmospheric Temperatures– UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere– UAH NSSTC – LS, Lower Stratosphere
Slide 48 – Nighttime Heat Records – July 2011– NOAA – Heat Dominates the U.S. in July
Slide 50 – Society of Biology Quote– Society of Biology – Climate Change Policy Issue
Slide 51 – Loading the Climate Dice– Southwest Climate Change Network – Future Climate Shift– Dr. Kevin Trenberth – Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability
Slide 52 – Record Highs and Lows in the U.S.– NCAR: Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S.
Resources & ReferencesSlide 53 – Precipitation Extremes – May 2011
– NOAA NCDC: U.S. National Percent Area Severely to Extremely Dry and Severely to Extremely Wet– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate – May 2011– Dr. Jeff Masters - U.S. weather in 2011: unprecedented rains and wet/dry extremes
Slide 54 – Texas Drought 2011– Climate Abyss: Texas Drought - Spot the Outlier
Slide 55 – Texas Drought 2011– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Drought – September 2011– U.S. Drought Monitor – Archives
Slide 57 – Texas Drought 2011– Drought Blamed for Texas City Power Outages (Apr 26, 2011)– Updated 2011 Texas agricultural drought losses total $7.62 billion (Mar 21, 2012)– Wildfires rip through sun-scorched Texas (Sep 5, 2011)– NPR – Drought-Stricken Texas Town Forced To Truck In Water (Feb 7, 2012)– Texas Forest Service – Estimates Show Hundreds of Millions of Trees Killed by 2011 Drought (Dec 19, 2011)– Texas Tribune – Drought's Economic Impact Spreading Across Texas (Oct 27, 2011)– Houston Chronicle - Texas must decide on water plan, lawmakers say (Mar 22, 2012)
Slide 58 – U.S. Extremes 2011– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Wildfires – Annual 2011– NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes
Slide 59 – U.S. Spring Tornadoes – 1950-2011– NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Tornadoes – Annual 2011
Resources & ReferencesSlide 60 – 14 Billion Dollar Events – U.S. in 2011
– NOAA: Extreme Weather 2011Slide 61 – Global Extremes 2010-2011
– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2010– NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2011– N.Y. Times – Relentless Heat Wave Roasts Russia (Aug 9, 2010)– Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011)– BBC – Severe Drought Hits South-West China (Mar 25, 2010)– Reuters – Thai Flood Frustration Grows (Nov 1, 2011)– BBC – Twenty Dead in Southern France Flash Floods (Jun 17, 2010)– CBS – 40-Year Bering Sea Storm Thrashing Alaska (Nov 9, 2011)– N.Y. Times – Africa Drought Endangers Millions (Jul 5, 2011)– Boston Globe – Australia Flooding (Jan 3, 2011)
Slide 62 – U.S. Department of Defense Quote– U.S. D.O.D. – Quadrennial Defense Review – February 2010
Slide 63 – Pakistan Flooding 2010– Congressional Research Service – Flooding in Pakistan: Overview and Issues for Congress (Nov 2010)– AP – Pakistanis Suspect Landowners of Diverting Floods (Sep 6, 2010)– Washington Post – Frustrations Mount in Flood-Devastated Northwestern Pakistan (Aug 2, 2010)– CNN – Wars Reign Over Breaching Levees as Pakistan Grapples with Flooding (Sep 4, 2010)
Resources & ReferencesSlide 64 – Ocean Acidification
– Ocean Acidification – YouTube Playlist– Resources from the National Research Council’s Ocean Studies Board– ACS – Station ALOHA Stands Sentinel– C-MORE – Rising CO2, Ocean Acidification, and Their Impacts on Marine Microbes– National Geographic – The Acid Sea– WHO – Availability and Consumption of Fish– NOAA PMEL – What is Ocean Acidification?– Ocean Acidification Turns Climate Change Winners into Losers: UBC Research (Feb 18, 2012)– BBC – ‘Jacuzzi vents’ model CO2 future (Feb 19, 2012)
Slide 66 – Interacademy Panel Quote– IAP Statement on Ocean Acidification (Jun 2009)
Slide 69 – Climate Inertia– The Climate Change Commitment; Wigley, T.M.L.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934– How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?; Meehl et al.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1106663– New Scientist – Ocean Heat Store Makes Climate Change Inevitable (Mar 17, 2005)
Slide 72 – Tipping Points– IUFRO – Press Release: Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change (Apr 17, 2009)– Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011)– British Columbia: Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations – Mountain Pine Beetle– U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State Forest Service: Results of Forest Health Survey (Jan 22, 2010)– Billings Gazette – Pine Beetle Infestation Might Slow (Jan 23, 2010)– Denver Post – Beetle scourge goes from bad to worse (Jan 15, 2008)– Mongabay – Amazon Drought Continues, Worst on Record (Dec 11, 2005)– Science – Amazon’s Carbon Sink Under Threat (Mar 5, 2009)
Resources & ReferencesSlide 73 – Tipping Points
– NASA Visible Earth – Global Sea Surface Temperature (Apr 18, 2000)– Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change; Le Quéré, et al.; Science; DOI:
10.1126/science.1136188– A variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic; Schuster, Ute and Andrew J. Watson;
Journal of Geophysical Research; DOI:10.1029/2006JC003941Slide 74 – Tipping Points
– NSIDC – All About Frozen Ground– NSIDC – State of the Cryosphere – Permafrost and Frozen Ground– Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010)
Slide 80 – Consensus Scientific Organizations– The Climate Change Consensus – Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine.