EarthSystemApproachtoWeather,Climate,Water

andEnvironment

anewWMOagenda

ProfessorPavelKabatChiefScientist

WorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)

Ship barometerca.1840 AtmosphericcirculationafterMaury(ca.1860)

Standardmeteorologicallogsforshipsatsea

2

Weather • Climate • Water 3

First International Meteorological Congress (Vienna, 1873)

Conference of IMO Directors

(Washington D.C., 1947)

The 1947 Convention: from IMO to WMO…

Weather • Climate • Water 4

WMO@2018anditsMembers

WMO has 195 Members (countries) and coordinates the activities of all the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the planet because weather, climate and water know no national or political boundaries.

2015: A Landmark Year. How should WMO respond?

• Over 190 countries signed up to reduce emissions, with the target to stay within a 2ºC world.

• 15-year agreement for the substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health.

• 2030 agenda with 17 goals to end poverty and hunger, improve health and education, making cities more sustainable, combating climate change, and protecting oceans and forests.

Understanding and Quantifying Weather, Climate and Environmental Risks are at the

Core of these Actions

AlittlePreamble…

Wheredowestandtoday?

“UnitedinScience”,UNSGClimateSummit,NewYork,Sep2019WMO2019ProvisionalStatementontheStateoftheGlobalClimate,

COP25,Madrid,Dec2019

Globalemissionsfromfossilfuelandindustry:36.2± 2GtCO2 in2016,62%over1990Projectionfor2017:36.8± 2GtCO2,2.0%higherthan2016

Estimatesfor2015and2016arepreliminary.Growthrateisadjustedfortheleapyearin2016.Source:CDIAC; LeQuéréetal2017; GlobalCarbonBudget2017

Emissionsfromfossilfueluseandindustry

Uncertaintyis±5%foronestandarddeviation(IPCC“likely”range)

Greenhouse gas concentrationreached newhighs

Carbon dioxideCO2

MethanCH4

Nitrous oxideN2O

407.8ppm 1869ppb 331.1ppb

2019 globaltemperature:+1.1°Cincrease(Reference1850-1900)

v 2015-2019warmest 5year period

v 2010-2019warmest 10year period

v Past 5years arerankedtopwarmest years

2016 120192,3201732015420185

Ocean heat contentonrecord

Arctic sea ice continueslongterm decline

Greenland ice MassBalancedecreasing329Gigatonnesneticeloss2018/2019

• Averageof260Gtoficeperyearovertheperiod2002-2016

• Maximumlossoccurredin2011/2012:458Gt

4.8 mm/yr since 2010

3.7 mm/yr since 2005

3.25 mm/yr since 1993

2019:Globalmean sea level riseHasaccelerated

OceanAcidification+26%sincethebeginningoftheindustrialrevolution

Long-termobservationsfromtheopenoceanattheHawaiiOceanTimeSeriessiteshowadecreaseinpHandanincreaseinpCO2 overthelast30years.Source:IntergovernmentalOceanographicCommissionofUNESCO(IOC-UNESCO),NOAAPacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory(NOAAPMEL),InternationalAtomicEnergyAgencyOceanAcidificationInternationalCoordinationCentre(IAEAOA-ICC).

ObjectivesofCBR

WorldEconomicForumGlobalRisksLandscape2019

Biggestrisksforworldeconomy2019

Watercrises

Biodiversitylossandecosystem

collapse

Large-scaleinvoluntarymigration

Failureofclimatechangemitigationand

adaptation

Naturaldisasters

Extremeweatherevents

Interstateconflict

Cyberattacks

Man-madeenvironmentaldisasters

~4.5billionpeopleaffected1998-201796%weatherandclimate(?)related

16

The(Climate)ScienceRequirementsareChanging…

EvolutionofClimateModelstoEarthSystemModels

ThereisnologicalscientificargumentforseparatingthephysicalclimatesystemfromfullEarthsystemscience

NewToolsintheToolbox:SeamlessPredictionAcrossTimescales

Forecastlead-time

Confidenceboundary

Now

Hour

s

Days

1-w

eek

1-m

onth

Seas

onal

Deca

dal

Clim

ate

Past

clim

ate

Analysisofpastweatherobservationstomanageclimaterisks

E.g.Agriculture:informscropchoice,plantingtoyieldoptimisationandminimisecropfailurerisk.

Forecastingroutineandhazardousweatherconditions.

Public,emergencyresponse,internationalDisasterRiskReduction

Monthlytodecadalpredictions- probabilityofdrought,cold,hurricanes….

Contingencyplanners,nationalandinternationalhumanitarianresponse,governmentandprivateinfrastructureinvestment

ClimateChangeprojections.

Informsmitigationpolicyandadaptationchoices.Impactsonwaterresources,heatstress,crops,infrastructure.

Weather and Climate Research

Weather and Climate Research

SeamlessacrossWeather–climate–water–ocean–ice–environmentScienceforservices– Quality,relevanceandimpactUserinteractionsforceexplorationof«Whatworks»:

Postprocessing:GeneralpublicEnergysectorFloods,waterAirqualityEcosystemsTransport (air,shipping,road,rail)OffshoreMarineresourcesWaves,stormsurgesAgriculture andfoodTourismEmergencypreparedness - HiW

Dataassi-milation

EPS

Research,moreuserinvolvement

Verification

UsersObservations,Emisson fluxes,

Observations

Research- interactive

StorageCoreservice(R&Ddriven)production)

BACKEND

EarthSystemModelformulation,processes

FRONTEND

Weather&climate

extremes

Translationtohazards

ImpactEstimation

ReducingriskandresponseScenarios

Weatheranalysis&forecastdata

Extractionofrelevantinformation

Placingintosituationalcontext Mitigationstrategies

Weather&ClimateInformationprovider

Weather&Climate-impacteduser

Seamless towards impacts

Co-Design of Information Outputs with Stakeholder Communities

• WhydoweneedExtremeEarth?• WhatisthescientificreasoningbehindExtremeEarth?• WhatarethekeytechnologiesforrealizingExtremeEarth?• HowwillExtremeEarth producesocio-economicimpact?• WhatistheExtremeEarth partnership?

www.extremeearth.eu

…anewchallenge– howwillour(near)future(climate&wether)modelslooklike?

Whatdoesx1000mean? Inthepast:x1000=15years=1015 scale=2M€electricpower/year

Inthefuture:x1000=??years=1018 scale=??M€electricpower/year

Codesareonly5%efficient!

[Economist,16March2016]

TheendofMoore’slaw

Akeyroleforthefuture,withthechallengeevenbiggerthanin1980:

WORLDCLIMATERESEARCHPROGRAMMEWCRP

2019:Climatescienceatacrossroads?

WMOistakingupthechallenge…..andkeepsfullycommittedtosupportingandassistingWCRP

inaclosecollaborationwithIOCandISC

WMOforthe21st Century

20501873

28

FutureWMO:IntegratedseamlessEarth-systemscienceandscienceforservicesapproach

WCRPWWRP

GAW

ENHANCEDCOLLABORATIONWITHPARTNERS

JointbodiesWorkingarrangementsProgrammes/Projects

Moreinteractionandcollaborationwithpartnersfromallrelevantareas,e.g.:

ThankyouMerci

AndHappy40th BirthdayWCRP!