east asian security and defence digest 27
TRANSCRIPT
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Japan and India Have Closer Ties
Foreign Minister Gemba and his
Indian counterpart have recently
taken steps to increase cooperation
between the two countries in key
areas, from nuclear energy to naval
exercises, trade and international
coordination. This is part of
Japan's attempt to engage with the
rising powers, diversify its
partnerships and create other
control mechanisms to moderate
China's rise.
EAST ASIANSECURITY AND DEFENCE
DIGEST
EDITOR’S NOTE - TIAGO MAURÍCIOResearcher at Kyoto University and Orient Institute
In the latest cabinet reshuffle, PM
Noda sacked Naoki Tanaka and swore in
Satoshi Morimoto. The profiles of both the
outgoing and incoming defence heads are
quintessential opposites, as virtually all
reports have stated. If the replacement of
Ichikawa for Tanaka did not raise any
expectations regarding the possibilities forimprovement of the defence post within
Japanese administrations, Morimoto has
certainly aroused the attention of many,
both inside and outside of Japan.
Prime Minister Noda's Cabinet, like
any other cabinet for the past few years,
has been subjected to the ups and downs
of politicking. In the realm of security and
defence, however, the toll appears to be
unreasonably high for a democratic regime
with a volunteers-only military force.
Arguably lacking the educational culture of
debating security affairs in all levels of
society, the constant coming and going of
defence ministers is no good service to the
country. This is particularly true of the
deference with which public opinion deals
with these matters.
It remains to be seen whether this
appointment will have a positive impact inJapan's capacity to deal with its security
and defence concerns in an age of
uncertainty. Recruiting an official with
experience in the Ministry of Defence and
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, besides being
an accomplished scholar, is surely a
convincing step in that direction,
considering the poor record other Defence
chiefs have left behind.
!
!
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China's Mistakes are US's Opportunities
“The PRC has succeeded in
mismanaging its foreign policy toward
Asia over the past several years. Chinese
assertiveness toward its neighbors,
especially on territorial issues, has
squandered good will and a general
receptiveness to Beijing. The United
States should seize this opportunity and,
consistent with the so-called Asia pivot,commit the resources necessary to
strengthen its ties to the region. ”
“Disappearing Horizons: U.S.–China
Relations After Shangri-La” (Dean Cheng
- The Heritage Foundation).
Is There a "Pyongyang Factor" in US
Elections?
“The North Koreans don't care much
for democracy, but they sure enjoy
negotiating with democracies in an
election year -- especially when they
detect that mission number one in
Washington is to avoid troubling foreignpolicy headlines until after November 6.
The Obama administration actually
started out with a pretty tough stance on
North Korea, captured in an impressive
statement of policy issued by Hillary
Clinton while in Thailand in July 2009. By
a b o u t m i d - 2 0 1 1 , h o w e v e r , t h e
administration began getting nervous that
its lack of "engagement" might tempt
Pyongyang to conduct nuclear or missile
tests. Once again, engagement slipped
from being a marginally useful means to
the end of the policy in itself. After a flurryof negotiations the North agreed in the
February 29 "Leap Year" deal that it
would stop nuclear and missile tests for a
while and let IAEA inspectors back at the
Yongbyon nuclear facility in exchange for
food aid (now euphemistically called
"nutritional assistance"). Nobody in the
administration was convinced this was a
breakthrough, but it seemed to kick the
North Korea problem down the road for a
while. Problem solved.”
“How North Korea Plays Us in an Election
Year” (Mike Green - Foreign Policy).
SecDef Panetta's Results in Asia
“The visit of Secretary of Defense Leon
Panetta to Southeast Asia last week
reaffirmed the Obama administration’s
commitment to an expanding U.S.
military presence in the Asia-Pacific.
Although the administration has remained
relatively mum in recent weeks about the
so-called “pivot” (leading some to
speculate that the strategy’s political
viability was undergoing reassessment),
and despite the looming threat of massive
cuts to the U.S. defense budget, Panetta
asserted the position in a June 2 address
in Singapore: “Make no mistake — in a
steady, deliberate, and sustainable way
the United States military is rebalancing
and bringing an enhanced capability
development to this vital region.” Here,
we highlight the most important
takeaways from Panetta’s nine-day trip,
and their implications for both U.S. policy
and the regional dynamic.”
“Trip by Panetta Affirms Shifting U.S.
Stance” (Joshua Kurlantzick - Asia
Unbound).
South Korea Is Attracting More Attention
in Washington
“Despite the importance of the U.S.-
South Korea relationship, it’s often
overshadowed here by other bilateral
arrangements. And, when the spotlight
does shine on this relationship, it’s
frequently because of the military threat
posed by North Korea.”
“Talking South Korea” (Jason Miks - The
Diplomat).
The Value of the Littoral Combat Ship in
America's Asia-Pacific Strategy
“While the Littoral Combat Ship is not
suited for the front lines of a war with
China, it would provide vital protection to
US supply lines in such conflict, saidUnder Secretary of the Navy Robert
Work, and against Iran, LCS would be in
the battle from "day one," with eight
LCSs ultimately operating out of Bahrain.
Indeed, the two potential theaters of war
are so different that the Navy may
consider focusing the "much more
maneuverable" Lockheed Martin version
of the LCS on fighting fast attack boats in
the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf,
while the very different General Dynamics
design, with its larger flight deck and fueltanks, operates primarily in the vast
reaches of the Pacific.”
“Navy Needs Both LCS Versions For War
With China, Iran” (Sydney Freedberg Jr. -
AOL Defense).
If US Didn't Have Bases in Asia, Would It
Act the Same Way?
“Kelley asks: if U.S. leaders tried to
pursue a policy of partial retrenchment,
what alliances commitments might they
choose to limit or terminate, and which
allies would still be considered important?
F ramin g the ques t ion th is way
acknowledges that there may be some
r e p u t a t i o na l i s sues invo lved in
downgrading a long-standing security
partnership, even if its original strategic
rationale has diminished or even
disappeared. But what if we let our
imaginations really run free and frame the
puzzle a bit differently? What if we were
starting from scratch, and doing a "zero-
based" assessment of U.S. allianceoptions? If historical ties weren't an issue,
what features would you look for in a
strategic partner and how might
America's future alliance portfolio differ
from its current set of arrangements?”
“Starting from scratch: Zero-based
alliance formation” (Stephen Walt -
Foreign Policy).
Is American Hegemony Sustainable?
“The OP was intended as an
emergency exercise if the US were toface a truly significant crisis that forced
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retrenchment. The purpose was to ask
who are the most important US allies and
commitments if we were forced to
choose. Right now, the US is not
choosing. We are all over the place; if
anything, we are taking on more
commitments ( I raq, A fghanis tan,
Pakistan, Yemen, the Asian pivot). As I
tried to say in the second post, I don’t
think we are about to pull out of Japan or
Egypt, but if we get to the point where wereally can’t afford globe-spanning
hegemony anymore, it would be help to
try to prioritize what is genuinely
strategically necessary, from what are
‘extras.’ One doesn’t hear this much,
except for Ron Paul, whose debate
performances motivated the post.”
“More on US Allies: America’s ‘Exorbitant
Privilege’ means it can borrow to Sustain
Hegemony Longer than Anyone Ever
Expected” (Robert Kennedy- Asian
Security Blog).
The Emerging Trends in East Asian
Security Are Becoming Clearer
“Maintaining Asia’s peace and
stability will be a challenge over the next
few decades, as key adjustments are
needed to manage the transition from an
order based on US primacy to an order
that accommodates the rise of Chinese
power. China is no longer satisfied with its
perceived polit ical and strategic
subordination to the US. The patternsand understandings of the global order
that evolved in the post-Cold War period
are now deeply contested, resulting in
global and regional arrangements that are
often overlapping and — at times —
competing.”
“Five principles for a new security order in
the Asia Pacific” (Jochen Prantl - East
Asia Forum).
Kim Jong-Il's Dying Wish
“Speculations about the Last Will and
Testament of the late North Korean leader
Kim Jong-Il, who died on 17 December
last year, are mounting and raise many
questions about the future of inter-Korean
relations. Separate parts of the alleged
document have been recently obtained
by the South Korean think tanks, the
Sejong Institute and North Korea
Strategic Information Service Centre.
The purported Will was obtained via a
person very close to a top North Korean
official. It says that the North shouldmake peace with the South, but only after
the current President Lee Myung Bak’s
official term is over. When a new leader
comes to power in Seoul, North Korea
must avoid a war and should move
forward hand-in-hand with the South.
Peaceful reunification is named as the
ultimate goal for the Kim family, who has
ruled the DPRK since 1948. Concrete
policies according to the will include that
the two Koreas should consider opening
the inter-Korean rail, roads and sea links.
Moreover, the document also says that ifthe two Koreas go to war again with each
other, the devastation would leave the
entire Korean peninsula centuries behind
other countries.”
“What Did Kim Jong-il Want?” (Leonid
Petrov - Korea Vision).
Comparing with the Atlantic, the Pacific is
Shallow in Multilateralism
“In a really helpful critique of the new
bipolarity, Andrew Carr argues that I'm
overplaying the institutional differences
between the Atlantic and Asian realms
and points out that there is no shortage of
institutions in Asia (though that figure of
700 meetings a year came as a bit of a
shock to me).
I think we need to look a bit deeper
than counting institutions and meetings.
We need to look at what those institutions
are committed to and what they do; once
we do, the differences just become
starker.”
“ Asian multilateralism is all talk” (Michael
Wesley - The Lowy Interpreter).
Articulating AirSea Battle
“In the budget wars between the
services, "hybrid threats" and "AirSea
Battle" have become rallying buzzwords
of two opposing camps.
On one side, Army leaders talk of
hybrid threats, whose blend of guerrilla
tactics and high-tech weapons pose the
greatest plausible threat on land, nowthat Soviet-style tank armies are extinct
and the nation has largely sworn off large-
scale counterinsurgency. On the other, Air
Force and Navy leaders speak of AirSea
Battle as a way to coordinate their
expensive hardware in a high-tech war
with regional powers like China or Iran.”
“The Network: Where Hybrid War Meets
AirSea Battle” (Sydney Freedberg Jr. -
AOL Defense).
Will More International Turmoil Hinder
China's Diplomacy?
“Last week, I asked a U.N. Security
Council diplomat to give me a read out of
China's reaction to the Houla massacre of
108 civilians during a closed-door session
of the 15-nation council. The diplomat
paused for a moment, then confessed to
being totally unable to recall what was
said.
It was probably something about the
need to pursue a peaceful outcome to the
conflict and the importance of respecting
sovereignty and letting the Syrians work it
out themselves, the diplomat surmised.The same thing, in other words, that
China says about virtually every crisis that
comes before the Security Council.
China has largely weathered the Syrian
diplomatic crisis, which has brought it
into direct conflict with the Arab world, by
drawing as little attention to itself as
possible and letting Russia take the heat
for sheltering President Bashar al-Assad
from Security Council pressure.
But the effort to remain under the radar
will be tested this month as China begins
its month-long stint as Security Councilpresident, a role that began Monday with
an obligatory council presidency press
conference that focused mostly on Syria.”
“ A tear in China's invisibility
cloak” (Colum Lynch - Foreign Policy).
Why Has China Downgraded Its Presence
at the Shangri-La Dialogue?
“Speculation is rampant as to why
China is a relative no-show. Talking with
U.S. officials and Asia watchers, the twomost likely reasons seem to be:: first,
China did not want a repeat of last year’s
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contentious appearance, and second,
Beijing still just doesn’t feel there’s much
benefit in showing up (clearly, the two are
linked). True, there are other forums for
discussing Asian security issues, such as
the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting +
and the East Asian Summit, both of which
are still evolving. But Shangri-La is going
on its 11th year, and has become a
showcase for many smaller nations.
Vietnam, which also sent a smallerdelegation this year, has used the
dialogue as a way to increase its regional
presence. The fact that China feels there
is little upside to engaging with senior
U.S. officials at an established multilateral
gathering might be an important
indication of how differently Washington
and Beijing view the responsibilities of
their regional roles. One year might be an
aberration, but if China consistently
snubs the Asia community at a major
gathering like this, then we’ll have a
better understanding of the limitations ofengagement with China.”
“China snubs Asia” (Michael Auslin -
American Enterprise Institute).
The United States Might See Its Nuclear
Arsenal in South Korea Removed
“Last month, the U.S. House Armed
Serv ices Committee enacted an
amendment to the Fiscal Year 2013
National Defense Authorization Bill calling
for reconsidering the U.S. removal of allits forward-based nuclear weapons from
South Korea. The amend ment ’s
supporters justified the proposal by
noting the refusal of the new North
Korean government, led by Kim Jong-un,
to resume nuc lear d isarmament
negotiations as well as China’s alleged
sale of “nuclear components to North
Korea . ” B ut t he Sout h Ko rean
government has correctly refused to
endorse the idea, one that’s presently
u n n e c e s s a r y a n d e v e n
counterproductive.”
“No to U.S. Nukes in South
Korea” (Richard Weitz - The Diplomat).
Diplomacy in Moscow Can Get Rough
“This winter , Michael McFaul
discovered a number of surprising things
about himself. He was imposing odious
American holidays, like Valentine's Day
and Halloween, on the Russian people.
He perso na l l y whisk ed Russ i an
opposition politician Alexey Navalny out
of the country to Yale on a fellowship. He
was inviting opposition figures to the U.S.
Embassy "to get instructions." And he
was a pedophile. Or so his online
tormentors claimed.”
“The Undiplomat” (Julia Ioffe - Foreign
Policy).
Military Contractors Are Making Faulty
Material Amidst Crisis
“he Senate Armed Services Committee
turned its spotlight last November on the
problem of sup-par and counterfeitChinese-made parts used in U.S.
weapons programs, including Boeing's
new P-8A aircraft, the Marine Corps' V-22
Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft, and the Navy's
Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine.
Sens. Carl Levin and John McCain
hammered away at China's involvement
and the fact the PRC government does
nothing to stop it. But the following
analysis, by experts at the University of
Maryland's Center for Advanced Life
Cycle Engineering (CALCE), concludes
that American businesses are the
problem – not China.”
“U.S. Companies -- Not China -- Pose
The Real Counterfeit Parts
Problem” (Michael Pecht & Len Zuga -
AOL Defense).
The Arctic Might Represent a Sea of
Opportunities
“Despite the Arctic’s inhospitable
climate, there are about 4 million people
living there. The area’s development
could, if undertaken in a sustainablemanner, bring improvements to their lives.
But there’s also the risk of increased
pollution, while the disruption could
adversely affect quality of life for those
who live along the Arctic coast.
Thirty-four ships passed through the
area in 2011. In the big picture of the
global shipping industry, this is a tiny
number, though more are expected this
year . Warm summer weat her is
approaching and more vessels can be
expected to make the trip in the coming
months. What this could lead to, though,will in large part depend on how the five
Arctic coastal states manage things.”
“Exploiting the Arctic” (Steven Borowiec -
Flashpoints).
AirSea Battle and Asia-pivot Are Forcing
Overhauling WWII US Bases
“As part of its emerging "Air-Sea Battle"
concept, (see Robert Haddick for more
on that) and the strategic pivot to thePacific, the U.S. military is planning to
brush out the cobwebs on a number of
long-disused facilities for potential use
during a new Pacific conflict.”
“U.S. reopening World War II bases in
Pacific” (Joshua Keating - Foreign Policy).
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Analysts are Generally Hopeful Regarding
Japan's New Defence Chief
“In the latest cabinet reshuffle, PM Nodasacked Naoki Tanaka and swore in SatoshiMorimoto. The profiles of both the outgoingand inc omi ng de f enc e hea ds a requintessential opposites, as virtually allreports have stated. If the replacement of Ichikawa for Tanaka did not raise anyexpectations regarding the possibilities forimprovement of the defence post withinJapanese administrations, Morimoto hascertainly aroused the attention of many, bothinside and outside of Japan.
Prime Minister Noda's Cabinet, like any othercabinet for the past few years, has beensubjected to the ups and downs of
politicking. In the realm of security and
defence, however, the toll appears to beunreasonably high for a democratic regimewith a volunteers-only military force. Arguablylacking the educational culture of debatingsecurity affairs in all levels of society, theconstant coming and going of defenceministers is no good service to the country. This is particularly true of the deference withwhich public opinion deals with thesematters.”
“Japan's New Defence Minister SatoshiMorimoto”
(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).
With Routes Opening Up in the Arctic, What Are the Implications for East Asia?
“In Northeast Asia and around Japan, thisraises concerns about increased traffic and asea power struggle between Russia andChina.
If navigation on the Arctic sea routesbecomes routine, traffic between the Asianlittoral countries, including China-which hasbecome an economic power-and SouthKorea, and Europe will pick up substantially. Active communication through those routes,including the one between Northeast Asiaand the west coast of North America, wouldmean increased traffic by foreign vessels in
the Sea of Japan, the waters from the
Tsugaru Strait to the Kuril Islands, and otherseas surrounding Japan. In such a scenario,the countries concerned would likelycompete for protection, or appropriatecontrol from the Russian viewpoint, of maritime traffic in the waters surroundingJapan.”
“Japan Should Play a Constructive Role inthe Arctic”
(Takahiro Ishihara - AJISS).
Morimoto's Defence Credentials Constitute aBreak From Previous Ministers
“Japan finally has a defense minister whoknows what he’s doing – and it couldn’tcome at a worse time. Satoshi Morimoto, aprominent national security analyst andgovernment advisor who served in both theJapan Self-Defense Forces and the ForeignMinistry, was named to the defense post onMonday. He becomes Japan’s third defenseminister since September; his predecessors,ca ree r po l i t i c i ans , we re fi red f o rincompetence.
Morimoto takes office in one of the mostchallenging defense environments of Japan’s
post-war era. China is expanding its militaryat a breakneck pace and claiming sole rightsto territory throughout the region. The U.S. is
JAPAN
HIGHLIGHTS
THE ISSUE OF COMFORT
WOMEN HAS CONTINUED TO
POISE JAPAN’S FOREIGN
RELATIONS
!
Japan and India are
boosting their relationship
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sending troops and ships and lining up allies in amuch-publicized “pivot” towards Asia. Japan isswinging its ground forces south to face China,and debating fundamental changes in the roles,missions and operations of its self-defenseforces. Though agreement was reached to shiftthousands of Marines to locations outsideJapan, U.S. military bases on Okinawa remain avolatile domestic issue.”
“ Tokyo Puts a Pro In Charge: For a Change”
(Takahiro Ishihara - AJISS).
An Interview with Former Ambassador Armacost
“During his four-year tenure as US ambassadorto Japan, Michael Armacost earned thenickname “Mr. Gaiatsu” (external pressure) forpushing Japan to make a visible contribution tothe Gulf War and for calling on Japan to open upand deregulate its markets during the StructuralImpediments Initiative talks. Armacost presentedhis latest views on Japan-US relations in May2012 in a speech delivered at the SasakawaPeace Foundation. During this visit to Japan, healso traveled to the US military bases in OkinawaPrefecture for the first time in 20 years.Nippon.com caught up with him to hear hisviews on the future course of the Japan-USpartnership, particularly with regard to security-related cooperation and economic relations,including the Trans-Pacific Strategic EconomicPartnership (TPP).”
“Forging Even Closer Japan-US Ties”
(Harano Joji - Nippon.com).
There Is a New Face at the Defence Ministry
“Following this weekend's speech by US
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta on the newDefense Strategy and the US role in the Asia-Pacific region, I find it appropriate to highlight thespecific section in which SecDef Panetta refersto the importance of the Japan-US Alliance andthe broader contribution of Japan to US strategicobjectives in the region.
It is a sizable account of one of Washington's strategic linchpins to Asia-Pacificsecurity, in words of the secretary. Incomparative terms, Tokyo has enjoyed a greatdeal more attention than another of America'salliances in the region, namely that with theRepublic of Korea.
Notwithstanding, China again took the
most considerably part of SecDef Panetta'sspeech, as he tried to downplay the view manyshare of the new defence strategy being aimed
at countering China's rise.”
“Looking at Japan's Place in SecDef Panetta'sSpeech”
(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).
Japan Activists Push White House to TakeMeasures on "Comfort Women" Issue
“Right-wing Japanese lawmakers and activistshave successfully rounded up more than 25,000signatures for a petition on the White Housewebsite asking the Obama administration toforce the state of New Jersey to take down amonument dedicated to the memory of "comfortwomen," the thousands of women kidnappedand raped by Japanese soldiers during WorldWar II.
The Bergen County executive dedicated a smallmonument in Palisades Park, New Jersey, in late2010 that included the following inscription:”
“Japanese comfort- women deniers force White
House response”(Josh Rogin - Foreign Policy).
MP Shigeru's Views on North Korea, CollectiveDefence and More
“As the United States rebalances its commitmenttoward the Asia-Pacific region, giving it toppriority in many areas of its foreign engagement,such as trade, diplomacy, security and so forth,the attention of policy-makers and academicshas quickly followed suit. Secretary of StateHillary Clinton has made clear the importance of the new "Asia pivot", most notably in a Foreign
Policy article entitled "America's Pacific Century",and Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta hasbeen articulating the newest Defence Strategywhich ensur es Washing ton' s conti nuedcommitment to address the threats andchallenges in the region. To Japan, this will put a good many people ontheir toes. The lessons of the Taiwan Strait Crisisof 1995-96 may fall on deaf ears, as the UnitedStates may now refrain from providing thevaluable strategic assurances her allies in theregion were asking for, when Beijing decided toput Washington's commitment in the region tothe test. In the 1990s, when China was weakerand more timid a power, the United States stoodher ground and her allies remained confident of the security umbrella. Fifteen years later and in adifferent strategic environment, one cannot be sosure that the same will happen. Against thisbackdrop, the aforementioned elations canamount to nothing more than wet powder.”
“Is US Strategic Reassurance in East AsiaQuestioned?”
(Tiago Mauricio - JFPO).
Insights into the Impact of the F-35 Program inJapan-US Relations
“The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter is the stealth
fighter of the future for the United States and
allies such as Japan, Australia, the United
Kingdom, and Canada. With unsurpassed
capabilities in stealth, survivability, agility, and
maneuverability, it represents the most dominant
platform the world has ever seen. Yet amidst
growing threats in the world and despite a strong
all iance for the program, the Obama
Administration has decided to dramatically cut
the F-35 as part of its cost savings efforts. Not
only will this drive up per unit costs for the
program, it will deprive allies and U.S. forcesalike the proper capabilities to continue to
dominate the air. Please join us for this important
event that will shed light on the capabilities the
F-35 brings to the table, how the international
cooperation of its partner nations builds security,
diplomatic ties, and cost savings, and why cuts
to the program and why cuts to the program will
hinder its development.”
“ The Future of Allied Participation for the F-35
Joint Strike Fighter Program”
(Steven Bucci - American Enterprise Institute).
Japan Could Change Course of Alliance Would
Ron Paul Have Won
“Morimoto, despite his defense smarts,
comes into office with severe handicaps that will
limit his ability to transform his own ideas into
action. First, he is a non-politician: he will facing
the bureaucracy naked, without even a political
secretary to back him up. Such support as he
will enjoy will come from the Prime Minister's
Residence (the Kantei) and in the person of the
man who appointed him. Second, the cost of
acquiring the F-35 threatens to upset thebalance between the ASDF and the already
beset Ground Self Defense Forces and the proud
and dominant Maritime Self Defense Forces.
After personnel costs and procurement costs,
Morimoto will have little to spend on actual
operations or any expansion of operations he
might press the government to consider.
The appointment of Morimoto once again
raises the question of whether or not Noda is his
own defense minister. While he for once has less
experienced in defense matters than person he
has appointed as his defense minister, being only
the son of an SDF man rather than a former SDF
man himself, Noda still believes himself an expert
in the nuts and bolts of defense policy. ”
“ The Morimoto Appointment”
(Michael Cucek - Shisaku).
How Was PM Noda's Defence Minister
Appointment Welcomed by the Media?
“These concerns while not completely invalid,
seem rather superficial. On the one hand other
non-elected ministers of cabinet have in the pastbeen selected for various positions, with only the
prime minister being required to be an elected
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member of parliament. And since the PM (in
theory) has the final word on almost all issues,
including defense issues, the concern about a
non-elected minister being sufficiently
‘responsible’ for the limited amount of discretion
he has is somewhat overwrought. Likewise with
the concern for the lives of SDF officers. Is there
really any reason why an elected official would be
more concerned than a non-elected official over
making decisions that could cost lives? In fact,
knowing what we know about politicians and
their ‘sociopathic’ tendencies there could be
good reasons for thinking the opposite. Either
way it is worthwhile evaluating the person
themselves – being elected was certainly no
barrier to former defense ministers Ichikawa and
Tanaka performing inadequately, which at a more
critical time could well have had much more
serious implications. Morimoto on the other hand
is a seasoned professional and most critically a
former SDF officer himself and has strong links
with the establishment, and is unlikely to take
any decision or give advice lightly.”
“ The New Japanese Defense Minister and the
Japanese Media Response”
(Corey Wallace - Japan Security Watch).
Japan Is Part of the Solution of the International
Order
“Japan’s policy choices can be seen as a
weathervane in international politics. After the
industrial revolution, Arnold Toynbee argued that
industrialism would triumph over nationalism. It
did not; instead, militarism came to the fore.
Japan charted a new aggressive course in her
attack on China in 1894, and Russia a decade
later. Even her military tactics foreshadowed
those used later in World War I. In the 1930s,
before Italy and Germany invaded other
countries, Japan had moved into Manchuria and
begun a war with China. In both cases other
powers followed in her wake. After her defeat in
the Pacific War, Japan led a trend in the opposite
direction. Long before the US and the USSR
understood what was going on, Japan had
already adopted the strategy of the trading state.
Eschewing militarism, she forged a new path of
economic development, stimulated by foreigncommerce. Then, in the 1990s, Japan’s
industrial stagnation neatly prefigured the US and
European recessions playing out today. Japan’s
collapse after 1987 should have warned the
world of the economic dangers ahead.”
“Japan: a rising sun in the new West?”
(Mayumi Fukushima, Richard Rosecrance &
Yuzuru Tsuyama - East Asia Forum).
Will There Be a Breakthrough in Japan-Russia
Relations?
“Vladimir Putin returned to the Kremlin on May 7,
after a four-year hiatus, to embark on his third
term as president of the Russian Federation.
Putin had held the same position for eight years
(2000–08), and now he is guaranteed another
six. In Japan, the media have greeted Putin’s
comeback with hopeful speculation on the
chances for a breakthrough in the longstandingterritorial dispute between the two nations that
has stunted the development of their ties. But as
one official from Japan’s Ministry of Foreign
Af fairs put it, “The obstacles to closer bilateral
relations are as formidable as ever.””
“Putin and the Northern Territories—A Reality
Check ”
(Suzuki Yoshikatsu- Nippon.com).
A Statistical View of Japanese Normative Power
“Recently, Gallup published a set of polls about
the median approval for Japanese and Chinese
leadership in the region. This study may in the
first place show that both countries compete for
regional leadership. Secondly it may be a goodassessment to measure the effectiveness of
Japan's Soft Power Strategy. Considering these
two charts, the first observes the perceptions of
Japan and China's leadership in general, and the
second observes specifically the Southeast Asia
region. In this respect Gallup says: "In 2006,
Japan granted more than $11 billion in Official
Development Assistance around the world, of
which about half remained in Asia. Gallup Polls in
the region suggest the substantial aid may be
paying off in terms of public opinion in the region,
but in only slightly larger dividends. In Southeast
Asia, for example, where Japan directs much of
its development assistance, a median of 58%
said they approve of the job performance of
Japan's leadership, compared with a median of
51% who said they approve of the job
performance of China's leadership."”
“Perceptions About Japan's Leadership in Asia”
(Rui Faro Saraiva - JFPO).
Remnants of the Cold War Are Still Influential in
Asia
“Developments this week in Asia highlight in
stark contrast the two opposing sides that
continue to emerge in the region. Although
government officials take great pains in
downplaying the security implications underlying
their policies and dismiss talk of burgeoningalliances aimed at any one country in particular,
their actions belie their words. On the one side
there are the democracies of Asia and on the
other, the authoritarian governments of China
and Russia. First, Japan and India announced
what are the first joint exercises by their navies to
be held in Japanese waters scheduled for this
weekend.”
“East-West Divide on Full Display in East Asia”
(Richard Colapinto - Atlantic Sentinel).
Does Japan Have Dysfunctional Politics?
Apparently So
“Japanese politics has fallen into a dysfunctional
state. The nation’s politicians are unable to come
up with responses to crucial political issues—or if
they do come up with a response, it is always
too late. What accounts for this sorry state of
affairs? Is the problem specific to this country, or
is it something that is common to all the
advanced democracies? Maybe people in Japan
are too harsh on themselves, and determined to
see domestic politics in the worst possible light?
There is certainly no shortage of dysfunctional
governments in other countries. Belgium, for
example, went a year and a half without any
official government in place at all—and finally
managed to form a six-party coalition
government (centered on the Socialist Party) only
last December. This is beyond the imagination of
most people in Japan. With its background in the
long history of tensions and antagonism between
the Dutch- and French-speaking populations in
Belgium, the crisis naturally had the effect of
paralyzing the nation’s politics completely.”
“Overcoming Political Dysfunction in Japan”
(Masuzoe Yoichi - Nippon.com).
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“Osprey crash wasn't caused by tech defect: U.S.”
“Futenma, economy to decide Okinawa election”
“ Ambassador to China slams Ishihara's Senkakus plan”
“GSDF sergeant suspected of auctioning military supplies
online”
“U.S. gives Osprey crash report”
“Foreign Ministry official skips China amid tit-for-tat fears”
“Disputed Islands at Top of Agenda For Tokyo Assembly
Session”
“Panetta: U.S. losing patience with Pakistan”
“Japan should think again on 'comfort women'”
“Russia envoy offers isle suggestions”
“LDP's dangerous proposals for amending antiwar article”
“Russia turns east to embrace looming China”
“Morimoto draws mixed reactions”
“New defense minister seen as giving pro-Washington advice”
“Morimoto becomes Japan's 1st nonparliamentarian defense
chief ”
“N. Korea denounces Japan's move to deploy destroyers near
S. Korea”
“Japan, India to conduct 1st joint exercises of defense forces”
“U.K. signs cyberdefense accord”
“New defense chief calls current Futenma relocation plan
"best" option”
“Seoul OK with Aegis deployment”
“S. Korea won't object to Japan's Aegis destroyers in nearby
waters: report”
“Nonpolitician status OK: new defense chief ”
“Chinese seek compensation, apology in China court over
Japan bomb raids”
“Okinawa less than thrilled with new defense minister”
“Chinese NGO issues reports on US, Japan military power”
“Japan, ROK, U.S. vow to press N. Korea”
“Professor gets defense post / Noda removes censured
ministers in Cabinet reshuffle”
“Morimoto has great experience working in SDF, Foreign
Ministry”
“LDP praises Cabinet reshuffle”
“Panetta: Access to Pacific harbors key to U.S. strategy”“Noda gets rid of censured Cabinet ministers”
“New defense minister: Henoko best choice for Futenma
relocation”
“Uproar after first appointment of private citizen as defense
minister”
“Experts scoff at allegations of spying by diplomat Li”
“Noda replaces censured ministers”
“ Actor hopes popularity can ease mutual distrust with
China”
“Japan, India to hold joint naval exercises”
7/31/2019 East Asian Security and Defence Digest 27
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“JFPO in the Media: Revista de Marinha” by Tiago
Maurício
“Perceptions about Japan's Leadership in Asia”
by Rui Faro Saraiva
“Japan's New Defence Minister SatoshiMorimoto” by Tiago Maurício
“Looking at Japan's Place in SecDef Panetta's
Speech” by Tiago Maurício
“Is US's Strategic Reassurance in Asia
Questioned?” by Tiago Maurício
EAST ASIAN SECURITY AND DEFENCE DIGESTEditor: TIAGO MAURICIO
Editor’s Mailbox: mauricio.tiago.47x(at)st.kyoto-u.ac.jp
Kyoto, Japan
East Asia Security and Defence Digest covers expert analysis
and news highlights on East Asian Security and Defence Affairs.
The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and donot necessarily reflect the views of JFPO.
J APAN FOREIGN POLICY OBSERVATORY (JFPO)
HTTP:// WWW.JAPANFPO.ORG /