ebola, a perfect storm by lone simonsen, phd and professor in global health og epidemiology, oct...
DESCRIPTION
An epidemiologis view on ebola and comparison with other epidemics and pandemics. Presented at a meeting held by danish development organisation IBIS on october 7th 2014TRANSCRIPT
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Ebola in West Africa 2014
WHO August 8 2014: Declared public health emergency of international concern
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Ebola in w Africa: A Perfect Storm - an epidemic fueled by poverty
• Virus first discovered 1976 in Zaire/DRC• Outbreak controlled by tracing, isolating infected
• Many outbreaks since then, always contained• Poorest countries, fewest doctors/pop, low life expectancy,
substantial urbanization
• Contemporary west africa: A perfect Storm• Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia• urbanization, mobility, broken health systems, recent civil
war/mistrust, and corruption
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The disease• Symptoms/disease
Nonspecific Prodrome: Fever, body aches, headache, vomiting, diarrhea etc
+/- Haemorrhagic Fever symptoms (bleeding)• Extremely high case fatality rate = 50% to 90%
• Clearly better outcomes when excellent supportive care
• Spread only effective in empoverished settings
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Spread of Ebola: Zoonosis origin to exponential Human-Human transmission
Index Case?Fell ill Dec 6, 2013In Guinea
Migrating batsRo = 2 (2 new cases from each infected (avg)Generation time: 15 days (average)Doubling of cases each month
Early Oct 2014:>7000 cases>3300 deaths…and more
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Severity of pandemics/threats
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Transmissibility (Ro) of various pandemics and threats
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Societal and Environmental Factors Explaining Effective Spread of Ebola
– Traditional burial practices– Lack of knowledge of risks re bodily fluids– Increased local, international mobility– Fragile health system cannot isolate, treat, track cases– Urbanization (pop density)– No sanitation/infrastructure to safely dispose of infected
bodies, secretions– People mistrusting doctors, authorities, foreigners helping– Lack of health intrastructure (hospitals, HCWs)– Poor (and worsening) economy–
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Medical and non-medical interventions to halt spread
• Medical– Supportive care (BP, O2, fluids)– No specific treatment
• few doses of experimental antiviral
– No vaccine…..yet• Non-medical– Contract tracing, isolation of infected and suspect – Quarantine of ”hot zones”(controversial)– Travel restrictions (controversial)– School closures
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What Can Be Done?• Epidemiological: to limit spread
• Contract tracing• Isolation of suspect/confirmed cases• MUST ACT FAST !!!
• Medical: to treat cases, limit mortality• Build clinics, import health care workers• Personal protective equipment supply• Lab testing capabilities• No specific drugs, no vaccine, only supportive care
• Educational: social scientists needed• Reduce/avoid physical contact /use PPE• Address local suspicion, mistrust, violence
– Clinic attacked, Ebola response killed
Good News: Nigeria outbreak containedBad News: Guinea, SL, Liberia uncontrolled
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Bad news – uncontrolled epidemic with exponential growth in W Africa
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United States 1st Case in DallasTimeline….. 4 days before case patient isolated
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