ecmwf training course reading, 22 march 2006 operational and research activities at ecmwf renate...
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ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Operational and Research Activities
at ECMWF
Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF’s…
…background and structure
…research activities Integrated Forecast System (IFS)
…operational activities production, delivery, archiving
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Background• Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states:
• Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-
range weather forecasts with benefits to the European economy Protection and safety of population Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training Development of European industry in the field of data-processing
• Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding
those normally practicable at national level
Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom
Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Today ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states
8 co-operating states
Iceland
CzechRepublic
Slovenia
Romania
Serbia andMontenegro
Hungary
Croatia
Estonia
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
New Convention
• Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by Council at its 62nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005
• Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the earliest end of 2006
• The adopted amendments concern mainly:
allowing new Member States to join
enlarging ECMWF’s mission to environmental monitoring
re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights)
widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU)
extending official languages to all official languages in Member States (on a request-and-pay basis)
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Objectives
• Development of global models and data assimilation systems for the dynamics, thermodynamics and composition of the Earth’s fluid
envelope and interacting parts of the Earth-system
• Preparation and distribution of medium-range weather forecasts
• Scientific and technical research directed towards improving the quality
of these forecasts
• Collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data
• Make available research results and data to Member States
• Provision of supercomputer resources to Member States
• Assistance to WMO programmes
• Advanced NWP training
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF Budget 2006
Germany 21.46%
Denmark1.82%
Belgium2.71%
United Kingdom16.69%
Turkey 1.92%
Sweden 2.59%
Finland 1.41%
Switzerland 3.06%Portugal1.27%
Austria 2.21%
Norway 1.98%
Netherlands 4.43%
Italy12.67%
Ireland1.07%
Greece1.45%
France 15.74%
Spain 7.30%
Luxembourg0.21%
Main Revenue 2006Member States’contributions £27,460,600
Co-operating States’contributions £425,100
Other Revenue £1,454,600
Total £29,340,300
Main Expenditure 2006Staff £12,961,900
Leaving Allowances& Pensions £1,807,500
ComputerExpenditure £11,785,900
Buildings £1,858,000
Supplies £927,000
Total £29,340,300
Percentage contributions for 2006-2008
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Organizational structure
COUNCIL18 Member States
DIRECTORDominique Marbouty
(France) (162)
Meteorological Division
Horst Böttger(Germany) (23)
Computer Division
Isabella Weger(Austria) (60)
OperationsWalter Zwieflhofer
(Austria) (87)
ResearchPhilippe Bougeault
(France) (47)
AdministrationGerd Schultes
(Germany) (25)
DataDivision
Adrian Simmons(UK) (14)
Model DivisionMartin Miller
(UK) (15)
Probabilistic Forecastingand Diagnostics Division
Tim Palmer(UK) (10)
FinanceCommittee7 Members
Technical AdvisoryCommittee18 Members
Scientific AdvisoryCommittee12 Members
Advisory Committee of Co-operating States
7 Members
Advisory Committee on Data Policy
8-24 Members
Policy AdvisoryCommittee
7-18 Members
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Principal Goal• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Principal Goal• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Principal Goal• Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.Northern Hemisphere: 500 hPa Geopotential above normal
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Complimentary Goals
• In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are:
To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts
To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models
To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition
To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system
To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Numerical Weather Prediction• The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical
laws
• Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed
• Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary
• Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation
• Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Strategy• Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data
• Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility
• Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting
• Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products
• Maintenance and extension of the Centre’s scientific and technical collaborations
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Research Department
DataDivision
Adrian Simmons(UK) (33)
Model DivisionMartin Miller
(UK) (27)
Probabilistic Forecasting& Diagnostics Division
Tim Palmer(UK) (18)
Data AssimilationErik Andersson(Sweden) (14)
Satellite DataJean-Noel Thepaut
(France) (16)
Re-Analysis ProjectSakari Uppala(Finland) (3)
Predictability & Diagnostics
Tim Palmer(UK) (9)
Seasonal ForecastDavid Anderson
(UK) (9)Numerical Aspects
Mariano Hortal(Spain) (9)
Ocean WavesPeter Janssen
(Netherlands) (4)
Physical AspectsAnton Beljaars
(Netherlands) (14)
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF’s operational analysis and forecasting system
The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the
Integrated Forecast System or IFS• Numerical scheme: TL799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-
80 km) semi-Lagrangian formulation
• Time step: 12 minutes
• Prognostic variables: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone
• Grid: Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
The wave model
• Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4)
2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean)
numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions
coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient
extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves
wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model
Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models15 – 24 May 2006
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Physical aspects, included in IFS• Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) • Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff)• Stratiform and convective precipitation• Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone• Solar angle• Diffusion • Ground & sea roughness • Ground and sea-surface temperature • Ground humidity• Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt • Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave)• Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere)• Sub-grid-scale orographic drag • Gravity waves and blocking effects • Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux
Parameterization of Diabatic Processes
2-12 May 2006
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Numbers of observational items assimilated over a 24 hour period on 13 February 2006
Starting a forecast: The initial conditions
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Data Assimilation
• Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps Observations made at various times, not all at ‘analysis time’ Observations have errors Many observations not directly of model variables
• The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation)
start with previous analysis
use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time
correct this ‘background’ state using the new observations
• The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions
accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast
EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty
see next 8 days
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
What is an ensemble forecast?
Forecast time
Tem
pera
ture
Complete description of weather prediction in terms of aProbability Density Function (PDF)
Initial condition Forecast
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Flow dependence of forecast errors
If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread)
aa
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day
UK
Control Analysis Ensemble
ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1994 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Forecast day
UK
Control Analysis Ensemble
ECMWF ensemble forecast - Air temperatureDate: 26/06/1995 London Lat: 51.5 Long: 0
26th June 1995 26th June 1994
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Why Probabilities?
• Open air restaurant scenario: open additional tables: £20 extra cost, £100 extra income (if T>24ºC) weather forecast: 30% probability for T>24ºC what would you do?
• Test the system for 100 days: 30 x T>24ºC -> 30 x (100 – 20) = 2400 70 x T<24ºC -> 70 x ( 0 – 20) = -1400 +1000
• Employing extra waiter (spending £20) is beneficial when probability for T>24 ºC is greater 20%• The higher/lower the cost loss ratio, the higher/lower probabilities are needed in order to benefit from action on forecast
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction Systems
• Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions singular vector approach to sample perturbations
• Model uncertainties are represented by “stochastic physics”
• Medium-range EPS (10-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) control forecast at TL399L62 (0.45°, ~50km) from analysis
50 perturbed forecasts at TL399L62 from perturbed analysis
• Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE) monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month
Predictability, Diagnostics and Seasonal Forecasting
24 – 28 April 2
006
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Operations Department
Computer OperationsSylvia Baylis
(UK) (31)
Network and Computer Security
Matteo Dell’Acqua(France) (11)
Systems SoftwareNeil Storer
(UK) (8)
Meteorological DivisionHorst Böttger
(Germany) (36)
Meteorological ApplicationsAlfred Hofstadler
(Austria) (5)
Data & ServicesBaudouin Raoult
(France) (6)
Meteorological OperationsDavid Richardson
(UK) (11)
GraphicsJens Daabeck(Denmark) (5)User Support
Umberto Modigliani(Italy) (5)
Computer DivisionIsabella Weger(Austria) (63)
Servers & DesktopsRichard Fisker(Denmark) (8)
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
User support for special projects
http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computer_access_registration/Special_Projects.html
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF model suites• Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model TL799 91 levels; range=10 days
• Medium-range ensemble prediction system TL399 60 levels; range=10 days
control + 50 perturbed members
• Monthly forecast system TL159 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels (ocean)
51-member ensemble
• Seasonal forecast system TL95 40 level (atm.), 1.4 º x 0.3-1.4º, 29 vertical levels
(ocean) 40-member ensemble
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
EUROSIP: seasonal multi-model ensemble
• Three models running at ECMWF: ECMWF – System 2
Met Office – HADCM3 model, Met Office ocean analyses
Météo-France – Arpege/Climat, Mercator ocean analyses
Spain + Germany may join
• Unified system All data in ECMWF operational archive
Common operational schedule
(products released at 12UTC on the 15th of each month)
• Common products will be available soon ECMWF release of web products expected this autumn
• EUROSIP appears to be better than the individual
systems
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
ECMWF Data ServerA new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF.
• DEMETER• ERA-40• ERA-15• ENACT• ENSEMBLES / GEMS- Monthly and daily data- Select area- GRIB or NetCDF- Plotting facility
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Meteorological Operations
• Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual
events,…)
• Forecast verification
• Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,
…)
• Data and satellite monitoring
• User guides / meetings
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
WMO verification scores
Day 6
Day 2
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT RMSE (m)
VERIFICATION AGAINST ANALYSIS
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
VERIFICATION TO W.M.O. STANDARDS
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200510
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E CMWF 1 2 U T C T + 4 8
F RANC E 1 2 U T C T + 4 8
DWD 1 2 U T C T + 4 8
UK 1 2 U T C T + 4 8
NC E P 0 0 U T C T + 4 8
J AP AN 1 2 U T C T + 4 8
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 200510
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100
E CMWF 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4
F RA NC E 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4
DWD 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4
U K 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4
N C E P 0 0 U T C T + 1 4 4
J A P A N 1 2 U T C T + 1 4 4
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Forecast Products: 1979
1 forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week
ECMWF Training Course Reading, 22 March 2006
Forecast Products: 2006wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products
www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts