Economic Aspects of Economic Aspects of Trichomoniasis: Effects on US Trichomoniasis: Effects on US

Cattle Herd Cattle Herd

NIAA/USAHA Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis StandardsOmaha, NebraskaApril 3, 2014

David P. Anderson

OverviewOverview

• Texas Industry • Economic Impact• Ranch Level Impact

TrichTrich

TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions

• 20 Percent of Herds– Herd vs cattle– Last data about 150,000 operations

• Weighted Average of Weaning Rates– 85% on 80% of cattle– 73% on 20% of cattle

• Estimated Number of Calves Not Produced

TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions

• 90 Day Calving Interval

• Other Scenarios Are Reasonable

• Tradeoff– Chose to go with 90 interval– Impact of disease on number of calves rather

than weights– Can assume longer calving interval, more calves

but lighter weights

ImpactImpact

• Lose Approximately 96,000 Calves– Lost potential

• About 2.5 Percent Fewer Calves• At 2013 Average Prices $95 Million in

Revenue– Cow/Calf Value– Revenue that was not realized

ImpactImpact

• If evaluated at Feedlot, Finished Level– 96,000 more fed cattle

• Total Revenue Lost– $156 million

Couple Other CommentsCouple Other Comments

• Given Infrastructure Losses of Late– 96,000 more fed cattle is a pretty good

size feedlot– 96,000 more head for a packing plant

Representative Ranch Representative Ranch AnalysisAnalysis

• AFPC Representative Ranches• Representative Ranches Guthrie

– 335 cows– Used to be 500 before the drought

• Base and 1 Scenario– Base 85 percent weaning – Trich scenario 73 percent weaning

Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016

Ranch Level ImpactsRanch Level Impacts

• Decline in Revenue and NCFI– 9%, 81%, respectively

• Significant Impact on Ranch Economics

• Annual Effects– Cumulative over time is large

Remaining WorkRemaining Work

• Formalize Alternative Scenarios– Alternative calving intervals– Impacts on number of calves and calf

weights

• Extend Analysis to Representative Ranches in Other States

• Write the Analysis Up and Publish– Get analysis out to wider audience