economic development update - garrett county, md (09.24.2013)

Economic Update & Current Initiatives

Mike Koch, Director Garrett County Economic Development

[email protected]

Nestled in the mountains of Western Maryland, Garrett County features high elevations—and higher opportunities for prosperity. Lured by an abundance of resources and natural beauty, over 900 businesses elevate their workforce—and profit margins—in Garrett County. Boasting a solid workforce and affordable real estate, Garrett County blends modern conveniences with country living. Efficient

by design, our technology and transportation infrastructure redefine rural life, offering convenience and proximity to key markets.

In Garrett County, we’re reinventing rural. Mindful of our agrarian roots, we support the organic growth of innovation. Strata joins 33 specialty manufacturers making their mark globally, with cutting-edge safety, technology, construction and consumer products. Our manufacturers are inventive and are reinventing the rural

economy. Visit: www.reinventingrural.com to learn more.

Economic Update

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Population

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Popu

la'on

(persons)

Popula'on 1969-‐2010 Garre6 County

Popula2on

County population has stagnated since 2000.

Population level has remained flat at 30,000

4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Total Employment

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1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total Employment (Garre6 County)1969-‐2010

* Based on Seasonally Adjusted employment figures

While population has remained stagnant, Total Employment has risen from 17,470* in 2000 to 20,681* in 2010 – an increase of 17.5% in one

decade or 1.75% per year on average.

5 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Monthly Unemployment

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Une

mploymen

t Rate (%

)

Monthly Unemployment Rate Comparison (GC,MD,US) 1990-‐2012

Garre9 County

Maryland

United States

County unemployment rates show clear cyclicality with annual peaks from Sep - Jan. While indicative of dependence on seasonal

tourism, the amplitude of this cycle is diminishing.

Variance = 7.6%

Variance = 2.8%

6 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta9s9cs

Annual unemployment provides a less erratic view on median unemployment in Garrett County. Since the start of the “Great

Recession” in 2007, the county has clearly outperformed the nation, and over recent years has begun to close the gap with the State of Maryland.

Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Annual Unemployment

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Per Ca

pita In

come (in

dollars $)

Garre9 County

Maryland

United States

Per Capita Income (Garrett County) 1969-2010

In recent years, Garrett County incomes have gained considerable ground. In 2010, county per capital income was $36,725 – lagging the

national per capita income of $39,937 by only 8.7% Source: United States Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita Income

Source: Garre< County Department of Economic Development

Entire County Housing


Deep Creek Watershed Housing


Entire County Housing �(excluding Watershed)

Pull Factors (Retail Sales)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Income Adjusted

Pull Factors 1.244 1.339 1.302 1.359 1.348 1.394 1.429 1.476 1.564 1.555

Designed to measure the degree to which retail sales are captured inside of the county – or conversely “leak” to markets outside the county – pull factors are measured according to the following scale:

< 1 Indicates that county residents are spending a portion of their incomes outside of the county

= 1 Indicates equilibrium; county residents are spending their incomes in the county

> 1 Indicates the county is pulling 100% of the purchasing capacity from county residents as well as attracting purchases from outside the county.

Since 1969 Garrett County has never had its retail sales Pull Factors drop below 1. 12


Shift Share Analysis

The Shift Share Analysis compares the actual performance of the county with the predicted performance based on national performance standards. Based

on this, the county added 2110 more jobs than “expected.” 13


Recession Shift Share Analysis

This Shift Share Analysis shows the out-performance of Garrett County relative to the nation during the Great Recession (2007-2010) 14


Coefficient of Specialization (COS)

16.59%

17.98%

17.27%

15.83%

14.50%

15.00%

15.50%

16.00%

16.50%

17.00%

17.50%

18.00%

18.50%

2001 2004 2007 2010

COS Numbers for Garre6 County

COS Numbers

COS is used to measure the degree of specialization vs. diversification of a region’s employment relative to the nation. Based on “portfolio theory” in finance, the more diversified – the greater the expected returns over time.

COS = 0 = Complete Diversification COS = 100 = Complete Specialization

15 Source: Garre< County Department of Economic Development

Comparative COS

Frederick Kent Bal2more Howard Allegany Garre9 Anne Arundle

2001 12.64 15.06 12.5 16.85 17 16.59 17.31

2004 12.65 14.98 12.86 16.89 16.55 17.98 17.06

2007 13.82 13.34 12.83 16.78 16.22 17.27 17.08

2010 13.36 13.05 13.05 17.99 17.07 15.83 16.62

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COS Num

ber %

County COS Number Comparison

Although the Garrett County COS is higher than some other MD counties, COS values are trending downward and reflect an increasingly diversified

economy and workforce and a more stable investment environment. 16 Source: Garre< County Department of Economic Development

Location Multipliers

Location multipliers – calculated using various methodologies – are used to estimate the actual economic impact of job creation in specific locations. The multiplier value – for example 2.44 – means that for every 1 export-devoted job created in the county, 1 x 2.44 = 2.44 jobs will be created. Manufacturing sector jobs, a strong and healthy sector in Garrett County, best exemplify the importance of this multiplier given that majority of county-based manufacturing is intended for consumption outside of the county.

Economists routinely underestimate, so the lowest multiplier calculated is used for estimations.

17 Source: Garre< County Department of Economic Development

New and Expanding Businesses (Garre9 County) September 2012 -‐ Present

Business AR&E

17 New Businesses

7 Expanding Business

Business and Industrial Parks Occupancy

Keyser's Ridge Business Park - no occupancy�

McHenry Business Park - no occupancy�

Central Garrett Industrial Park:�--Garrett Container Systems, Inc. - 136 employees�--Phenix Technologies, Inc. - 100 employees�--Quality Machining, Inc. - 14 employees�

Northern Garrett Industrial Park:�--Pillar Innovations, LLC - 96 employees�--ClosetMaid Corporation - 157 employees�--New England Truss & Joist - 4 employees�--Robosson Supply West, LLC - 3 employees�--Total Biz Fulfillment, Inc. - 46 employees

Southern Garrett Industrial Park:�--C. Palmer Die Casting, Inc. - 37 employees�--Garrett Industrial Supply - included w/Pioneer Conveyor�--Morningstar, Inc. - 72 employees�--Mt. Top Granite & Marble, LLC - 5 employees�--NuWay Interiors, LLC - 20 employees�--Simon Pearce of MD, Inc. - 42 employees�

Southern Garrett Business & Technology Park:�--GCC Technologies, LLC - 62 employees�--Deep Creek Ready-Mix - 5 employees�--Pioneer Conveyor - 135 employees�--Greater MD Tool & Manufacturing Corp - 10 employees�--Total Biz Fulfillment, Inc. - 12 employees

Business AR&E

Current Initiatives

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Economic Development

•  Existing Business Developments –  Beitzel/Pillar –  AssetBook –  GCC Technologies –  Adventure Sports Center International (ASCI) & Deep Creek 2014 ICF

World Championships –  The WISP Resort

•  New Businesses Developments –  Tractor Supply –  Strata Safety Products –  Cher-Kana, LLC

•  In the Exploratory Pipeline –  Noble Energy (Vertical Wind Ventures) –  Value-Added Agri-business –  Artist-in-Residence

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Infrastructure Initiatives

•  Re-opening of I-68 Welcome Center •  Grant-funded projects

–  County-wide Broadband Initiative –  Penny Lane –  Business Park Drive –  Thayersville Road Realignment –  ASCI development –  Garrett Trails – hiking & biking

•  Keyser’s Ridge Business Park infrastructure •  Western Conveyance •  Municipality outreach & collaborative planning •  DCL Watershed Management

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Developing Energy Assets •  Re-formation of “Commissioners’ Marcellus Shale

Advisory Committee” •  Pending Formation: “Mountain Maryland Energy

Advisory Committee” –  More broadly chartered to include all relevant energy sectors –  Staffed by energy sector experts, academics, and cross-jurisdictional

representatives –  Led by professional consultant –  Tasked with specific deliverables

•  Participation and support for State-led Economic Impact Study of Shale Gas Development –  Stakeholder engagement –  Parallel completion of Economic Impact Study: Tourism and Deep

Creek Lake

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“Telling Our Story”

•  County Public Relations & Media Outreach –  Relocation Guide –  Reinventing Rural Campaign Development –  Editorial planning

•  County Branding Study –  Collaboration between Board of Commissioners, Chamber of

Commerce, and Economic Development –  Carefully planned roll-out in progress to maximize support and

collaborative adoption •  Co-branding guidelines •  Style and use guidelines

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