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Economic Forecasting to Inform the Oxfordshire Strategic
Economic Plan and Strategic Housing Market Assessment
Final report for Vale of White Horse District Council and partners
28 February 2014
Cambridge Econometrics
Covent Garden
Cambridge
CB1 2HT
01223 533100
www.camecon.com
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
ii
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the Cambridge Trust for New Thinking in Economics.
www.neweconomicthinking.org
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Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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Authorisation
Date Authorised for submission by
28/2/14 Anthony Barker, Director
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
iv
Contents
Page
Executive Summary vi
1 Introduction 1
2 Baseline Projections 2
2.1 Introduction 2
2.2 LEFM and the Baseline projections 2
2.3 Headline findings for the Baseline projections 5
3 Alternative Population-based Projections 10
3.1 Introduction 10
3.2 Headline findings for the Alternative Population-based projections 11
4 Developing the Assumptions for the Planned Economic Growth
Forecasts 16
4.1 Introduction 16
4.2 Factors likely to stimulate growth above trend 17
4.3 Factors which could depress growth below trend 28
4.4 Conclusions 29
5 Planned Economic Growth Forecasts 32
5.1 Introduction 32
5.2 Headline findings for the Planned Economic Growth forecasts 32
6 Risk Assessment of the Planned Economic Growth Forecasts 36
6.1 Introduction 36
6.2 Market conditions 36
6.3 Labour market competition 36
6.4 Infrastructure delivery 37
6.5 Inter-relationship between employment forecasts and housing
requirements 38
6.6 Capacity of allocated sites 40
6.7 Conclusions 41
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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Page
7 APPENDICES 43
Appendix A: The Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) 44
LEFM’s Main Inputs and Outputs 44
LEFM’s Main Relationships 45
Appendix B: Summary Results for Cherwell 48
Appendix C: Summary Results for Oxford 52
Appendix D: Summary Results for South Oxfordshire 56
Appendix E: Summary Results for Vale of White Horse 60
Appendix F: Summary Results for West Oxfordshire 64
Appendix G: Summary Results for Oxfordshire 68
Appendix H: Summary Results for the South East 72
Appendix I: Summary Results for UK 75
Appendix J: LEFM Industry Definitions 78
Appendix K: Employment sites and job capacities for Oxfordshire Districts 80
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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Executive Summary
Cambridge Econometrics and SQW were commissioned by Vale of White
Horse District Council and partners to prepare a set of economic forecasts for
Oxfordshire, to be used in the county’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment
(SHMA) and the Local Enterprise Partnership’s (LEP) Strategic Economic Plan
(SEP).
The forecasts developed for the study, using Cambridge Econometrics’ Local
Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) were developed in three stages:
- Baseline projections, assuming that historical trends in relative growth in
Oxfordshire compared with the wider South East (or UK) economy (on an
industry-by-industry basis) seen over the past 15 years or so continue into the
future.
- Alternative Population-based projections, in which the Baseline population
projections (ONS 2011-based SNPP) for Oxfordshire are replaced with an
alternative set that correct particular anomalies (relating to the student
population) in the ONS projections.
- a final, Planned Economic Growth forecast, which reflects policy influences
on economic growth such as proposals relating to the Science Vale
Enterprise Zone, Oxfordshire City Deal, NW Bicester Eco Town and other
planned infrastructure investment.
The Baseline projections suggest that if historical trends in the relative growth
performance of the Oxfordshire economy were to continue, employment in the
county would increase by 36,400 (approximately 1,800 jobs per annum, or 0.4-
0.5% pa) between 2011 and 2031. This is, on average, considerably slower
than seen over 2001-11 (about 2,900 jobs pa, or 0.8% pa).
The Alternative Population-based projections, which better reflect likely
population growth in the county, suggest that employment growth in the county
could actually average 0.6% pa over 2011-31, before the impact of above-trend
policy impacts are added.
The Planned Economic Growth forecasts suggest that a further (above trend)
27,750 direct jobs and 10,500 indirect jobs could be created in the county by
2031, due to proposals relating to the Science Vale Enterprise Zone,
Oxfordshire City Deal, NW Bicester Eco Town and other planned infrastructure
investment. This would mean a total increase in employment of around 88,000
over 2011-31, or 4,400 pa (1% pa). This compares with growth of around 3,000
pa (0.8% pa) seen over 2001-11. Sustained employment growth of 1% pa over
a 20 year period would be an achievement, especially in the current economic
environment, but is by no means unprecedented.
When the jobs growth by district, based on the Planned Economic Growth
forecasts, is compared with land allocated for development by district (taking
into account that not all jobs locate on B Class land), it appears that there is
sufficient land allocated in all districts except South Oxfordshire, where there
could be a shortfall in relation to the requirement indicated under the Planned
Economic Growth forecasts.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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1 Introduction
In September 2013 Cambridge Econometrics and SQW were commissioned by
Vale of White Horse District Council and partners (Oxfordshire Local Enterprise
Partnership, Oxford City Council, Oxfordshire County Council, Cherwell District
Council, South Oxfordshire District Council, West Oxfordshire District Council)
to prepare a set of economic forecasts for Oxfordshire, to be used in the
county’s Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) and the Local
Enterprise Partnership’s (LEP) Strategic Economic Plan (SEP).
A Planned Economic Growth forecast was developed for the study, using
Cambridge Econometrics’ Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), in three
stages:
Baseline projections, effectively assuming that historical trends in relative
growth in Oxfordshire compared with the wider South East (or UK)
economy (on an industry-by-industry basis) seen over the past 15 years or
so continue into the future. The projections are consistent with CE’s
baseline economic forecasts for the nations and regions of the UK.
Growth in some sectors (public administration, education, health,
residential & social care, and retailing) is also influenced by population
growth. The input assumptions for population growth in Oxfordshire in the
Baseline projections are the ONS 2011-based interim subnational
population projections (SNPP).
Alternative Population-based projections, in which the input population
projections for Oxfordshire are replaced with an alternative set that correct
particular anomalies (relating to the student population) in the ONS
projections.
a Planned Economic Growth forecast which reflects policy influences on
economic growth such as proposals relating to the Science Vale
Enterprise Zone, Oxfordshire City Deal, NW Bicester Eco Town and other
planned infrastructure investment
This report describes the methodology and development of the assumptions
and forecasts, provides a description and comparison of the results, and draws
out the policy implications for Oxfordshire and its districts.
Chapter 2 describes the methodology and results for the Baseline projections.
Chapter 3 provides the same information for the Alternative Population-based
projections. Chapter 4 provides a narrative and sets out the assumptions for
the direct ‘above trend’ impact on employment for the Planned Economic
Growth forecasts, and the results (including indirect and induced jobs) are
described in Chapter 5. Finally, Chapter 6 considers the risks that need to be
considered in delivering this scale of jobs growth, and how they should be
factored into the overall forecasting work.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
2
2 Baseline Projections
2.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the Baseline projections developed for each of the local
authorities and Oxfordshire as a whole. Section 2.2 discusses the modelling
framework and key assumptions underlying the Baseline projections, while the
remaining sections describe the projections themselves.
2.2 LEFM and the Baseline projections
The Baseline employment projections presented in this chapter are developed
using Cambridge Econometrics’ Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM)
tailored to the economy of Oxfordshire and its component districts (Cherwell,
Oxford, South Oxfordshire, Vale of White Horse, West Oxfordshire).
LEFM is a demand-led model that models the relationships between firms,
households, government and the rest of the world in a highly disaggregated
framework (eg 45 industries), which enables the impact on the economy
(employment and value added) of demand-side factors (such as an increase in
demand due to stronger world growth) to be analysed. The disaggregated
nature of the model is important because it allows the model to distinguish the
very different relationships that exist between particular industries. For
example, electronics is distinguished from other, more basic, manufacturing
sectors that operate in completely different markets.
In LEFM, the impact on a local economy of faster population growth, say, is
shown through the increased demand for goods or services in industries that
are particularly dependent on population growth (eg retailing, public
administration, health, education, leisure services, construction), which would
feed through into higher output and employment (and into household incomes
and spending) in those sectors.
The demand-side impact of a faster-growing population will not typically impact
on firms in the electronics sector in the local area, say, as demand for goods
from this sector will come almost entirely from the rest of the UK or world. The
impact of supply-side factors, such as an increasingly-skilled workforce in the
area attracting firms in particular sectors, is, as in other similar models, not
modelled in LEFM.
In common with most sub-national economic models, population in LEFM is one
of a number of inputs to the model – that is, population in LEFM is taken as
given and does not change if economic growth in the local area changes.
The population projections used for the Baseline projections are based on the
ONS’ 2011-based interim Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP) made
consistent with the latest mid-year estimates (to 2011). As they are interim
projections, the 2011-based SNPP only provide projections to 2021. For 2022
onwards the projected trends in the 2010-based SNPP are assumed to continue
and so growth rates from the 2010-based SNPP have been applied.
The Baseline projections were
developed in LEFM
Only demand-side impacts are
modelled
Population is an input to LEFM…
…and the Baseline uses the ONS 2011-based interim
SNPP
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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The Baseline projections are based on the assumption that historical
relationships between growth in the local area relative to the South East or UK
(depending on which area that industry has the strongest relationship with), on
an industry-by-industry basis, continue into the future. Thus, if growth in an
industry in the local area outperformed the same industry in the region (or UK)
as a whole in the past, then it will be assumed to do so in the forecast period.
Similarly, if it underperformed the South East (or UK) in the past then it will be
assumed to underperform the region (or UK) in the future.
The projections are consistent with CE’s forecast for the regions and nations of
the UK, as developed using the Multi-Sectoral Dynamic Model (MDM-E3) of the
UK economy and published in May 2013.
The results for Oxfordshire and its districts are projections rather than forecasts.
They represent the results of model-based analysis, but have not been refined
in the light of qualitative information, legislative changes or other 'soft'
information.
After reviewing the initial model-based Baseline projections, and following
discussion with Oxfordshire County Council and the local authorities, the pure
model-based projections for the education sector in Oxfordshire have been
adjusted. This is because the education sector in Oxfordshire is thought to have
particular characteristics that mean that benchmarking all its growth against the
South East or UK is not appropriate going forward.
For example, prospects for growth in the education sector in Oxfordshire
(particularly Oxford), is dependent to a large degree on demand for university-
based research and demand from students throughout the UK and rest of the
world (for university places), rather than demand from the school-age
population in the county catchment area. With this in mind, the model-based
Baseline projection for employment, which takes account of relative population
growth in the county (and cuts in government education budgets at the UK
level), was thought to be too low, and so adjustments were made to reflect the
expectation that the education sector in Oxfordshire will suffer less of a
downturn in employment growth in the short and medium term than the model-
based projections would suggest.
According to the ONS’ Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES),
almost half of all employment in education in Oxfordshire is in higher education,
compared with only around one-fifth in the South East as a whole. The
adjustment made is to assume that the half of employment in higher education
in Oxfordshire remains constant over the forecast period (rather than falling, in
the short term, in line with CE’s assumptions for education as a whole). The
other half (pre-school, primary, secondary and ‘other’) is assumed to move in
line with CE’s general assumptions for education, reflecting government
spending cuts, as in the model-based Baseline projection. The adjustment is
made to better reflect the particular drivers behind the education sector in
Oxfordshire compared with the standard method for developing baseline
projections in LEFM for other areas. The adjusted projection should still be
seen as a ‘business-as-usual’ projection (ie what would happen if past relative
The Baseline projections assume the
continuation of past
relationships
The projections are consistent
with CE’s regional
forecast, from May 2013
Adjustments were made to the
Baseline projections for
education
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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trends continued into the future) rather than any sort of policy adjusted forecast
(as described in Chapters 4 and 5).
The result of the adjustment is presented in Figure 2.1, which shows that in the
adjusted Baseline projection employment in education in Oxfordshire is around
11,000 higher than in the purely model-based (ie unadjusted) Baseline, in 2031.
The adjustments to the Baseline employment projection for education, by
district, are shown in Table 2.1. The adjustment to the projection for
employment in education in Oxfordshire as a whole was allocated to the districts
based on the relative size of the education sector in each district. Thus, the
impact of the adjustment is largest (7,800 in 2031) for Oxford city.
Except insofar as particular policies were in force during the period over which
the historical relationships have been estimated (around 15 years), and insofar
as new policies are taken into account in CE’s forecasts at a national and
regional level (which drive the local area projections), the Baseline projections
by local authority are policy neutral. For example, they would not take into
account a new policy that favours a particular sector in the local area, or a
decision to release land for economic development at a different rate than in the
The projections are neutral to new policy at
local level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline - after adjustment
Baseline - before adjustment
Figure 2.1: Baseline projection of employment in education, before and after adjustment
Table 2.1: Impact of adjustments to Baseline projection of employment in education
2011 2021 2031
(000s) (000s) (000s)
Oxfordshire 0.0 10.2 11.1
Cherwell 0.0 0.9 0.9
Oxford 0.0 7.1 7.8
South Oxfordshire 0.0 0.7 0.8
Vale of White Horse 0.0 0.8 0.9
West Oxfordshire 0.0 0.7 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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past. As mentioned above, the UK regional forecasts underlying the Baseline
projections were published by Cambridge Econometrics in May 2013. They
take into account analysis of government spending plans as published in HM
Treasury’s Public Expenditure Statistical Analysis in July 2012 and Autumn
Statement in December 2012.
In the forecasts developed for this study, it is assumed that employment growth
is not restricted by labour market constraints, except insofar as such constraints
have existed in the recent past (which would be reflected in the historical
relationships that are estimated). If, in the forecast period, the labour supply in
the local area is not sufficient to satisfy the level of employment projected, then
the shortfall is assumed to be made up by increased net in-commuting.
The measure of employment in LEFM and throughout this report is jobs, some
of which are part time; the metric is not full time equivalent jobs. This means
that the actual number of people employed in each area can be less than this
figure, if, for example, someone has more than one part-time job. Estimates
from the Annual Population Survey suggest that less than 4% of workers hold
more than one job. The measure includes self-employment, whether on a full-
time or part-time basis.
2.3 Headline findings for the Baseline projections
As discussed above, the Baseline projections are model-based projections in
which historical relationships between growth in Oxfordshire and growth in the
South East or UK, on an industry-by-industry basis, are expected to continue
into the future. Rather than being a forecast of what we expect to happen in the
future, it is a projection of what the Oxfordshire economy could look like if past
trends (in terms of relative growth relationships, rather than trends in growth per
se) were to continue into the future, with no change in policy. It should therefore
be seen as a starting point, from which to build the further stages in which
alternative population projections and changes in policy (be that government
policy or changing business investment patterns, say) are taken into account.
The further stages are described in subsequent chapters.
Figure 2.2 shows the Baseline projection for total employment in Oxfordshire,
compared with CE’s forecast for the South East. The data are indexed to
2011=100, so that they can be presented and compared in the same chart. The
chart shows that employment in Oxfordshire is projected to grow at a slightly
slower rate than the South East average in the medium term, and then at about
the same rate in the longer term.
Table 2.3 shows levels, changes in levels, and growth rates, for employment in
Oxfordshire, the districts and the South East and UK. It shows that over 2011-
31 (2011 is the last year for which official ONS employment data were available
for Oxfordshire and the districts at the time the forecast was developed)
employment in Oxfordshire is projected to increase by 36,400 (approximately
1,800 jobs per annum, or 0.4-0.5% pa). This is, on average, considerably
slower than seen over 2001-11 (about 2,900 jobs pa, or 0.8% pa). This result
reflects the industry mix in Oxfordshire and CE’s UK Regional forecast for
prospects in particular sectors (especially education, health and residential &
social care).
There are no constraints on labour supply
Employment in LEFM is
measured as ‘jobs’
Overall growth in employment in for Oxfordshire
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
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Slightly slower projected growth in employment in Oxfordshire compared to the
South East over the whole period means that Oxfordshire’s share of South East
employment is projected to fall very slightly, from 8.7% in 2011 to 8.6% in 2031.
Table 2.2 and Figure 2.3 show the Baseline projections for Oxfordshire, by
sector. They show that by far the biggest generator of jobs over the forecast
period is expected to be financial & business services. The sector is projected
to account for almost two thirds of the total increase in employment in
Oxfordshire over 2011-31, even though it only accounted for around one fifth of
total employment in 2011. By 2031 it is projected to account for just over 24%
of employment in the county.
Growth in employment in accommodation & food services is also projected to
be quite strong over the forecast period, with growth of 1.5% pa over 2011-21
and 0.9% pa over 2021-31.
Employment in government services is projected to see a slight fall overall (even
with the adjustments made to education) between 2011 and 2021, due to the
impact of the government’s austerity measures on employment in the short and
medium term. In the longer term, growth is projected to pick up once again.
Manufacturing employment is projected to see some growth over 2011-21, but
to see a fall over 2021-31.
Growth projections by
sector
Figure 2.2: Employment projections in the Baseline
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Index, 2011=100
Oxfordshire
South East
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
7
Table 2.2: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline, Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture etc 2.3 4.8 5.1 2.5 7.7 0.4 0.7
Mining & quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -3.3
Manufacturing 26.9 27.3 24.4 0.4 0.2 -2.9 -1.1
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 4.1 4.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0
Construction 22.2 24.3 25.6 2.1 0.9 1.3 0.5
Distribution 52.0 55.2 56.8 3.2 0.6 1.7 0.3
Transport & storage 11.8 14.0 14.6 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.4
Accommodation & food services 23.4 27.2 29.9 3.9 1.5 2.7 0.9
Information & communications 21.9 20.5 22.1 -1.3 -0.6 1.6 0.8
Financial & business services 78.1 88.9 101.5 10.8 1.3 12.6 1.3
Government services 114.7 107.8 110.2 -6.8 -0.6 2.3 0.2
Other services 23.0 22.9 22.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.2
Total 380.6 397.3 417.0 16.7 0.4 19.7 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure 2.3: Employment (000s) in 2011 and projected change in jobs 2011-21 and 2021-31 in the Baseline– broad sectors in Oxfordshire
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2021-31
2011-21
2011
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
8
The Baseline projections for the districts of Oxfordshire are based on the
assumption that historical relationships between the relative growth in each
district and Oxfordshire as a whole, on an industry-by-industry basis, continue
into the future. In a similar way to the projections for Oxfordshire as a whole,
therefore, the projections for overall growth in each district will depend on these
historical relationships, industry mix, and the projections for growth by industry
in Oxfordshire.
The Baseline projections (see Table 2.3) show employment growth picking up
in Cherwell, following a fall between 2001 and 2011 (-0.4% pa), to grow faster
(0.6% pa) than the South East (0.5% pa) as a whole over 2011-21 and at about
the same rate (0.5%pa) over 2021-31. In absolute terms, Cherwell is projected
to see the greatest increase in job numbers (4,800) among the Oxfordshire
districts over 2011-21.
Employment growth in Oxford, on the other hand, is projected to slow from the
rapid growth of 2% pa seen over 2001-11, to see no overall increase over 2011-
21 and then grow slightly more slowly than the South East as a whole, at 0.4%
pa, over 2021-31. The rapid growth in employment in Oxford over 2001-11 was
driven mainly by very rapid (7.8% pa) growth in employment in education:
16,000 of the 22,000 additional jobs in the city during that period were in
education. The Baseline projection (even after the adjustment described in
Section 2.2 above) projects an overall decline in employment in education in
Oxford in the short and medium term (reflecting the impact of the government’s
austerity measures on some parts of the sector), and even by 2031 employment
in the sector in the city is projected to be slightly below that in 2011.
Despite this, and due to its relative size, Oxford is still projected to see one of
the largest absolute increases in jobs (5,000) among the Oxfordshire districts
over 2021-31 (see Figure 2.4).
Growth projections by
district
Table 2.3: Employment projections in the Baseline
2001-11 2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Oxfordshire 29.6 0.8 380.6 397.3 417.0 16.7 0.4 19.7 0.5
Cherwell -3.6 -0.4 79.4 84.6 89.2 5.2 0.6 4.7 0.5
Oxford 22.0 2.0 123.2 123.2 127.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.4
South Oxfordshire 2.5 0.4 65.1 69.4 72.8 4.3 0.6 3.4 0.5
Vale of White Horse 5.7 0.9 67.2 71.7 76.4 4.4 0.6 4.7 0.6
West Oxfordshire 3.0 0.7 45.7 48.4 50.8 2.7 0.6 2.4 0.5
South East 166.6 0.4 4387.2 4601.0 4834.9 213.8 0.5 234.0 0.5
UK 1281.0 0.4 31175.0 33460.5 35075.7 2285.5 0.7 1615.2 0.5
Oxfordshire as % of
South East
17.8 0.4* 8.7 8.6 8.6 7.8 0.0* 8.4 0.0*
Notes: * percentage point per annum difference from South East growth.
Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
9
Employment growth in South Oxfordshire is projected to accelerate from 0.4%
pa seen over 2001-11, to grow faster (0.6% pa) than the South East over 2011-
21 and at the same rate as the South East (0.5% pa) over 2021-31.
Vale of White Horse is projected to continue to see employment grow faster
than the South East as a whole, at 0.6% pa over the whole period 2011-31.
Similarly, West Oxfordshire, is projected to see employment growth of 0.6% pa
over 2011-21 and 0.5% pa over 2021-31.
Growth in all the districts is projected to be largely driven by the Accommodation
& food services and Financial & business services sectors. Financial &
business services is projected to grow by 1.9% pa in Cherwell over 2011-31
and Accommodation & food services is projected to grow by 1.8% pa in South
Oxfordshire over 2011-31.
Figure 2.4: Employment (000s) in 2011 and projected change in jobs 2011-21 and 2021-31 in the Baseline– Oxfordshire districts
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire
Vale of WhiteHorse
WestOxfordshire
2021-31
2011-21
2011
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
10
3 Alternative Population-based Projections
3.1 Introduction
The Baseline projections presented in Chapter 2 use as their population
assumptions the ONS 2011-based interim Sub-National Population Projections
(SNPP) (and 2010-based SNPP from 2022 onwards). These inputs to the Local
Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) have an impact on projected growth in
population-related industries such as retailing, public administration, health,
education, residential & social care, as well as on other services through
household spending.
The 2011-based SNPP have been found to under-report population in
Oxfordshire due to under-reporting of the student population. The Steering
group for the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) therefore
commissioned JG Consulting to produce a set of alternative population
projections for the county and districts.
This approach incorporates the population projections for Oxfordshire
developed as part of the SHMA. These projections were adjusted to take
account of more recent data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). The
main adjustments are summarised below but this is explained more fully in the
SHMA report.
In the four districts outside Oxford City the alternative population projection used
the 2011- and 2010-based Sub-National Population Projections as a base
position and made relatively small adjustments to take account of more recent
data from ONS about levels of migration (in 2010/11 and 2011/12) and
population growth in the 2001-11 period (informed by Census data). This saw
population growth being higher in South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse
and lower in Cherwell and West Oxfordshire when compared with the published
ONS projections (i.e. the 2011-based projections rolled forward with reference
to the 2010-based figure).
In Oxford, however, it was clear that population growth in the 2011- and 2010-
based projections was far too low in comparison with past trends. After closer
inspection of the data underpinning the official projections and in consultation
with the City Council, it was concluded that this was most probably due to an
over-recording of international out-migration. To develop an alternative
population projection for Oxford a bespoke approach was therefore taken
linking age/sex specific population growth over the 2001-11 decade and using
this to prepare a migration matrix. An additional adjustment was made to the
fertility rates used in the model to reflect actual number of births compared with
the female population of child-bearing ages. Overall, this projection produced
outputs which were more closely aligned to observe past trends in respect of
both overall population growth and the age structure of the population.
After incorporating the alternative population projections, the forecast for
employment in education in Oxford continued to look low compared to historical
growth, particularly due to the on-going growth of the University of Oxford and
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
11
the importance of private education in the district. Historic data and trends were
analysed, and a further adjustment was made so that the increase in
employment in education over 2011-31 better reflects trend-based growth in
employment in education in Oxford, without double counting the increase in jobs
anticipated in the Planned Economic Growth forecast described in Chapter 4.
As with all models of this type, there are no supply-side linkages in the model
such that an increased supply of a labour force with particular skills, say, would
lead to expansion in a sector that requires those skills.
This chapter presents the results of the Alternative Population-based
projections developed using the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), in
which the Baseline population projections were replaced with the alternative
population projections from JG Consulting, and in which the additional
employment adjustments in education in Oxford were also included.
The alternative population projections are thought by Oxfordshire County
Council to give a more likely picture of population growth in the future, and so
these projections will effectively become the ‘Baseline’ on which the Planned
Economic Growth forecasts will be constructed.
3.2 Headline findings for the Alternative Population-based projections
Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1 show the alternative population projections and
Baseline (based on 2011-based and 2010-based SNPP) population projections
for Oxfordshire. They show that the alternative projections have much faster
growth over the whole forecast period, to 2031, than the Baseline population
projections (SNPP). Population in Oxfordshire is projected to be 45,000 (6%)
higher in 2031 under the alternative projections than in the SNPP.
Overall, population in Oxfordshire is projected to increase by 62,000 (9%) over
2011-31 in the Baseline projections and by 107,000 (16%) over the same period
in the Alternative Population-based projections. For comparison, in the ten year
period over 2001-11, population in Oxfordshire increased by 48,000 (8%).
Within Oxfordshire, the differences between the two sets of population
projections are varied. For Cherwell, the alternative population projections
project a slightly lower increase (2,000 less) than the Baseline projections, and
in West Oxfordshire project a slightly greater increase (1,100 more). For both
South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse, the alternative population
projections show population in 2031 about 5,000 higher than in the Baseline.
The greatest variation in the projections is for Oxford, where the assumptions
for the student population differ most from the SNPP Baseline. Total population
in Oxford is projected to see only a very small increase (400) over 2011-31 in
the Baseline projections, but to increase by almost 37,000 in the alternative
population projections.
In terms of population growth, the annual average growth rates (% pa) in the
alternative population projections for Oxfordshire as a whole, and for Oxford in
particular, match more closely the rates seen over 2001-11.
The alternative population
projections show much faster
growth than the Baseline over
2011-31
Population in Oxford is
projected to grow much
faster than the Baseline in alternative
projections
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
12
Figure 3.1 and Table 3.2 show the employment projections in the Alternative
Population-based and Baseline projections. The impact on employment of the
alternative population projections has a similar profile to the difference between
the two sets of population projections, as expected, with the employment impact
widening throughout the forecast period. The impact on employment is less
than proportionate. We wouldn’t expect a 10% increase in population, say, to
lead to a 10% increase in employment in the county. By 2031, total population
in the alternative projections is 6% (45,500 people) higher than in the Baseline
projections, while employment is only 3% (13,500 jobs) higher in the same
period.
Overall growth in employment in
Oxfordshire
Table 3.1: Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections
Baseline Alternative Population
2011 2001-11 2031 2011-31 2031 2011-31
(000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa)
Oxfordshire 655.0 47.6 0.8 716.8 61.8 0.5 762 107.2 0.8
Cherwell 142.3 10.3 0.8 162.9 20.5 0.7 161 18.3 0.6
Oxford 150.2 14.7 1.0 150.6 0.4 0.0 187 36.8 1.1
South Oxfordshire 135.0 6.7 0.5 146.1 11.1 0.4 151 16.3 0.6
Vale of White Horse 121.9 6.1 0.5 134.5 12.5 0.5 139 17.4 0.7
West Oxfordshire 105.4 9.7 1.0 122.7 17.3 0.8 124 18.4 0.8
South East 8,653.0 629.6 0.8 10,007.0 1,354.0 0.7
UK 63,233.0 4,119.5 0.7 72,558.2 9,325.2 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure 3.1: Employment in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Oxfordshire
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
13
Table 3.3 and Figure 3.2 compare the employment projections, by sector, for
Oxfordshire. They show that the biggest impact on employment is in
Government Services (8,900 jobs), as this includes public administration,
health, and education, for which growth prospects are closely linked to
population growth in LEFM (and for which further adjustments were made to
education in Oxford as part of this stage). At a more disaggregated level, the
impact is greatest in education and health. There is also an increase of 1,300
jobs compared to the Baseline in Distribution, which includes retailing, due to
higher household spending from the higher population. Similarly, higher
household spending leads to higher employment (about 800 jobs) in
Accommodation and food services, which includes bars, cafes and restaurants.
There are also impacts in some other services, such as Financial & business
services, as a result of higher demand from the higher population, but also
through the knock-on effects from the businesses directly impacted by higher
population (eg retailers requiring business services).
Although the increased population is specifically designed to represent higher
student numbers, rather than a higher general population, the impacts
described above are consistent with this: increased student numbers will create
higher employment in education, more demand for health services (even if
students remain registered outside Oxfordshire they will still use health services
within the county), and increased retail spending and spending at bars and
restaurants.
Growth projections by
sector
Table 3.2: Employment in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections
Baseline Alternative Population
2011 2001-11 2031 2011-31 2031 2011-31
(000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa)
Oxfordshire 380.6 29.6 0.8 417.0 36.4 0.5 430.5 49.9 0.6
Cherwell 79.4 -3.6 -0.4 89.2 9.9 0.6 90.1 10.8 0.6
Oxford 123.2 22.0 2.0 127.8 4.5 0.2 136.6 13.4 0.5
South Oxfordshire 65.1 2.5 0.4 72.8 7.8 0.6 74.2 9.1 0.7
Vale of White Horse 67.2 5.7 0.9 76.4 9.1 0.6 77.9 10.6 0.7
West Oxfordshire 45.7 3.0 0.7 50.8 5.1 0.5 51.7 6.1 0.6
South East 4,387.2 166.6 0.4 4,835.9 447.7 0.5
UK 31,175.0 1,281.0 0.4 35,075.7 3,900.7 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
14
Table 3.2 shows how the employment projections in the Alternative Population-
based projections compare to the Baseline across the local authorities. The
pattern of differences in employment projections broadly follows the pattern of
differences in population projections. The impacts across the districts within a
particular sector are proportional to the relative size of that sector in each of the
districts. For example, the impact on employment in education in Oxford is
greatest because it accounts for the greatest share of employment in that sector
in the county. Thus, districts that do not see a particularly large increase in
Growth projections by
district
Table 3.3: Employment by sector in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections
Baseline Alternative Population
2011 2001-11 2031 2011-31 2031 2011-31
(000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture etc 2.3 -3.5 -8.9 5.1 2.9 4.2 5.2 2.9 4.2
Mining & quarrying 0.2 -0.6 -12.8 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 0.1 -0.1 -1.7
Manufacturing 26.9 -12.6 -3.8 24.4 -2.5 -0.5 24.7 -2.2 -0.4
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 2.0 6.3 4.1 -0.1 -0.1 4.2 -0.1 -0.1
Construction 22.2 -3.1 -1.3 25.6 3.3 0.7 25.9 3.7 0.8
Distribution 52.0 -3.0 -0.6 56.8 4.8 0.4 58.1 6.1 0.6
Transport & storage 11.8 -0.3 -0.2 14.6 2.9 1.1 14.9 3.1 1.2
Accommodation & food services 23.4 7.9 4.2 29.9 6.5 1.2 30.6 7.3 1.4
Information & communications 21.9 5.2 2.8 22.1 0.3 0.1 22.3 0.4 0.1
Financial & business services 78.1 3.1 0.4 101.5 23.4 1.3 102.6 24.5 1.4
Government services 114.7 32.5 3.4 110.2 -4.5 -0.2 119.1 4.4 0.2
Other services 23.0 1.9 0.9 22.5 -0.5 -0.1 22.8 -0.2 -0.1
Total 380.6 29.6 0.8 417.0 36.4 0.5 430.5 49.9 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure 3.2: Projected change in employment by sector over 2011-31 in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections, Oxfordshire (000s)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Baseline
Alternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
15
population in the alternative population projections compared to the Baseline
may still see a relatively large impact on employment. This will happen if they
have a relatively large number of businesses in a sector that is impacted by
higher overall population (because the districts are assumed to serve a county-
wide catchment in the model).
The biggest positive difference (Alternative Population-based versus Baseline)
in employment terms is in Oxford, with 8,800 extra jobs projected by 2031 in the
Alternative Population-based projections. South Oxfordshire and Vale of White
Horse each see employment in 2031 higher by around 1,400-1,500 jobs.
Employment in Cherwell also increases slightly, despite its population in the
alternative projections being lower than in the Baseline, as a result of
businesses in the district being able to benefit from opportunities offered by a
larger population in Oxfordshire as a whole.
Table 3.4 shows the impact of the alternative population projections on
employment by broad sector in each district. The table shows that in the sectors
that are directly impacted by population (Government services) the biggest
impact is seen in Oxford. This is expected given where the biggest change to
the population projections has been made, and the share of those sectors that
are in Oxford, as well as the adjustment made to employment in education.
Similarly, the greatest increase in retail jobs (Distribution) is also seen in Oxford.
For the other services (eg Financial & business services, and Accommodation
and food services) the impacts are more evenly spread across the districts, due
to the proportion of employment in those sectors in each district.
Table 3.4: Impact of Alternative Population-based projections on employment by district and sector – 2031 (000s)
Oxfordshire Cherwell Oxford South
Oxfordshire
Vale of
White
Horse
West
Oxfordshire
Agriculture etc 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manufacturing 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Electricity, gas & water 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Construction 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Distribution 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1
Transport & storage 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
Accommodation & food services 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Information & communications 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Financial & business services 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Government services 8.9 0.0 7.5 0.5 0.6 0.3
Other services 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total 13.5 0.9 8.8 1.4 1.5 0.9
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
16
4 Developing the Assumptions for the Planned Economic Growth Forecasts
4.1 Introduction
The Brief for this study requests the production of a Planned Economic Growth
forecast to reflect policy influences on economic growth such as proposals
relating to the Science Vale Enterprise Zone, Oxfordshire City Deal, and
planned infrastructure investment. The Brief requests that the assessment of
planned economic growth includes a geographical dimension for areas within
Oxfordshire, and also potential cross boundary influences.
The Planned Economic Growth forecast avoids double counting. Trend
forecasts are based in part on the patterns of growth in Oxfordshire in the past,
and they therefore incorporate the influence of policies applied at that time. The
point of the Planned Economic Growth forecast is to consider what effects
recent changes - such as those mentioned above, and which would not be
reflected in the trend forecasts - are likely to have on jobs growth to 2031.
It is also important to focus on net change. Most of the Planned Economic
Growth job impacts considered in this section are unlikely to involve
displacement within Oxfordshire: for example, an increase in research funding,
and related jobs, at Oxford University could possibly result in displacement of
research funding from elsewhere in the UK, but not from elsewhere in the
county. However, there are examples where local displacement could occur: for
example, in considering the effects on jobs of the designation of the Science
Vale Enterprise Zone we have used the net additional jobs figure that was
included in the EZ submission document rather than the gross additional
employment expected within the EZ area. This is because the EZ could
potentially attract firms to relocate from surrounding areas, due to the fiscal
incentives available.
Therefore, the Planned Economic Growth forecasts only take account of the net
change in jobs (ie excluding displacement) resulting from planned economic
growth over and above what could be expected on the basis of past trends.
The approach we have taken involved the following process:
A review of the relevant policy documents and any jobs forecasts they
contain1
1 The principal policy and other documents reviewed include the latest versions of the district council local
plans and employment land reviews, the submitted Oxfordshire City Deal submission 2013; the draft NW
Bicester Eco Development Economic Strategy 2013; the Oxfordshire Innovation Engine report 2013; Invest
Oxfordshire information sheets on various sectors; Oxford Economic Growth Strategy; the Oxford
Bioescalator Business Plan 2013; the Science Vale Enterprise Zone Bid document; OBN Biocluster report
(2011) and UK Biofinancing Overview (2012); Study into the UK Motorsport and Performance Engineering
Cluster (2003); press release from the Department for Business Innovation and Skills, “UK space industry
set to rocket with £240 million of investment (2012).
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
17
Interviews with all the local authorities, and a selection of other
organisations (eg Oxford Airport)
A meeting with the client group to calibrate and adjust initial thinking
Internal team discussions to decide how expectations for above trend
growth should be factored into a Planned Economic Growth forecast. This
is mainly a question of deciding which sectors to allocate the additional
jobs to.
We also drew extensively on our knowledge of the Oxfordshire economy and
business community derived from recent consultancy commissions, including
the Oxfordshire Innovation Engine, the Bioescalator Business Plan and the NW
Bicester eco development economic strategy. The first of these involved in-
depth interviews with over 100 businesses and other relevant organisations in
Oxfordshire. The other two studies also involved substantial consultations.
It is important to note that the forecasting model has multiplier effects built in.
Therefore we have not tried to assess these separately.
The following sections summarise views on potential policy led employment
growth which were input into the Planned Economic Growth forecast.
4.2 Factors likely to stimulate growth above trend
Research activities - Oxford
The University employs over 4,000 staff, including post doctorates, in the STEM
(science, technology, engineering and mathematics) and medical fields and
there are over 3,000 postgraduate students working in these disciplines. Over
the last five years, the University has secured more external grant income for
STEM and medical research than any other UK university, rising by an average
of 9% per year to over £400m in 2011/122. There are particular strengths in
biological sciences, medicine, mathematics and statistics, for which it is ranked
first in UK. It was also placed in the top five in general engineering, materials
science and computer science.
These strengths result in significant growth. For example, the number of post-
doctoral students in computer science has doubled during the last five years.
The Medical Sciences Division is one of the largest in Europe with 2,500 staff
and 800 postgraduate students involved in medical research. Over £1.2 billon
has been invested in biomedical academic research in Oxford over the past five
years, which has underpinned the area’s profile in the commercialisation of
bioscience.
The University is undertaking a staged redevelopment of the whole of its
Science Area, based on a masterplan which, when fully implemented over the
next 5-10 years, will add 33% to existing floorspace. In addition, the former
Radcliffe Hospital site is currently being redeveloped to accommodate an
additional 122,500 sqm of educational and research floorspace. Recruitment of
1,000 new post doc researchers is planned, which in turn will lead to a
requirement for more supporting staff. Additional research space is also likely
2HESA Planning Plus 2013
University of Oxford
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
18
to be required for the Medical Science Division due to its success in attracting
research funding.
The University has also been purchasing individual sites on the Osney Mead
industrial estate (Botley Road), which over recent years has been under-
utilised. The estate comprises 18.3 hectares, and in the region of 51,600 sqm
of principally Class B floorspace. It is likely that the site will be more actively
used by the University and will create new jobs, which could include a mix of
research and development, office and educational activities.
The significant increase in floorspace for research and teaching provided by
these developments will enable a step change in growth over and above past
trends. The demonstrated capability of the University to attract increasing
research funding means that these opportunities for growth are likely to be
realised.
Oxford Brookes University is one of the strongest new universities in the UK
and has distinctive expertise in the life sciences, computer science, engineering
and the built environment. It has strong local business linkages, including with
the motorsport and auto engineering sectors.
Oxford Brookes is also implementing a masterplan for its main Headington
campus, which will lead to a slight reduction in total floorspace but much more
efficient usage. This will give scope for some increase in student numbers,
resulting in an increase in employment on the site. However, this may be offset
by reductions of employment on other sites.
Most of the employment growth is likely to occur in the University of Oxford,
primarily as a result of the substantial increase in space for research and
teaching in the Science area, the former Radcliffe Hospital site, and the
Churchill site (which accommodates most of the research activities undertaken
by the Medical Sciences Division). Currently there are 4,000 staff and 3,000
post graduate students in the STEM and Medical Sciences areas combined.
Assuming that floorspace available for these subjects will increase by 30% (i.e.
the same as in the Science Area) as a result of developments already in the
pipeline, and that employment increases proportionately, this would result in
another 1,200 employees and 1,000 post graduates. However, these figures
relate only to the plans already being implemented. The availability of further
space at Osney Mead, and the likely continued growth of STEM and medical
science research throughout the period to 2031, suggest that new jobs could
substantially exceed this figure.
None of the above estimates take account of growth in the arts and social
sciences, and in central university and college administration, which we assume
will continue but in line with past trends.
We therefore consider that expansion of the University of Oxford to 2031 could
result in 2,000 additional jobs in the education sector, over and above the
adjusted trend based forecasts.
Research activities – Harwell, Science Vale EZ and Culham
Harwell Oxford hosts two major facilities - the Diamond Light Source
synchrotron and the ISIS neutron source - the Science and Technology
Facilities Council’s (STFC) Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), which
Oxford Brookes University
Implications for employment
forecasts
Harwell and Science Vale EZ
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
19
includes the Central Laser Facility, and other smaller research and innovation
infrastructure. This includes the MRC Mammalian Genetics Unit Biological Solid
State NMR Protein Laboratory, the Satellite Applications Catapult Centre and
the European Space Agency Business Incubation Centre. STFC and the
Diamond Light Source together employ nearly 2,000 people. We do not have
figures for the other facilities, although the whole Harwell site currently
accommodates 4,500 people.
There are strengthening research links with Oxford University, which could have
a significant impact on Harwell’s international profile and attractiveness. There
is also an increasing number of researchers from other UK universities, major
corporates and international organisations who spend periods of time at Harwell
using the various facilities.
The increasing interest in attracting other R&D based activities to Harwell is
demonstrated by the decision by UKAEA to enter into a joint venture with
Goodman and the successful bid for Enterprise Zone (EZ) status. Take up of
employment space within the EZ is already factored into Local Plans and their
provision for housing. However, there is scope for considerable further
development at Harwell beyond the EZ, including both intensification of the
publicly funded research activities and additional business space. The total area
available for development amounts to 99ha, of which 64ha is within the EZ.
There is scope, therefore, for employment on site well in excess of that
envisaged in the EZ proposals.
The UK Science Vale Enterprise Zone, which includes 64ha at Harwell and
28ha at Milton Park, is expected to accommodate 8,400 jobs, of which 5,040
are net additional (source: bid submitted by Oxfordshire Local Enterprise
Partnership to the Department for |Communities and Local Government, pp 52-
53). If these are distributed proportionately to land, then 5,800 jobs would be at
Harwell (net 3,500). At the same density, the whole Harwell site would
accommodate nearly 9,000 jobs (5,400 net), in addition to the 4,500 already
based there. Table 4.1 summarises the current and prospective employment
situation on the Enterprise Zone and the rest of the Harwell site.
SVUK Enterprise Zone Rest of
Harwell
– already
developed
Rest of
Harwell
– to be
developed
Total
Harwell
Harwell Milton Park
Land (ha) 64 28 n/a 35 n/a
Existing employment 4,500 4,500
Potential (gross) new
employment
5,800 2,600 3,200 9,000
Net new employment
(allowing for displacement)
3,500 1,600 1,900 5,400
Note: gross to net based on estimates in EZ submission
Table 4.1: Jobs potential on the UKSV Enterprise Zone and the rest of Harwell
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
20
Culham Science Centre has 2,000 jobs currently, and has capacity to
accommodate another 1,000 jobs. The Joint European Torus (JET) facility will
be moving to France within the next few years, but employment growth on the
site seems assured due to its strong and distinctive science base.
Jobs growth beyond 3,000 is constrained currently by significant traffic issues
in the local road network, but if the rail improvements between Oxford and
Didcot are implemented as proposed in the City Deal submission (which would
include a new station at Culham), this cap could be lifted in the longer term.
The UKSV enterprise zone (EZ) status was awarded in 2011 on the basis that
the designated areas would be fully developed by 2016. In practice, this was
always an ambitious timescale, and the prolonged downturn in economic
activity has made it impossible. However, on the Milton Park part of the EZ,
MEPC has undertaken some speculative office development (see
http://www.mepc.com/miltonpark/101and102ParkDrive/Home.aspx) and on the
Harwell site, STFC are in the process of changing their JV partner in order to
ensure development is brought forward more quickly. Both sites and the
strategic location are attractive to the market, and the economy is recovering.
Take up of land is therefore likely to accelerate, although the scale of the EZ
suggests that it will take 10 years or more for it to be fully developed and
occupied.
We assume these jobs will be classified to a mix of R&D (within ‘Other
Professional Services’), IT services, electronics and pharmaceuticals.
Some growth of employment in the ‘big science’ research facilities at Harwell
(which are not within the designated EZ) is likely, due to increased demand from
academic and corporate researchers to use the facilities and the strengthening
links with the University of Oxford.
The potential for strengthening of the links between Harwell and the University
of Oxford were highlighted in the Oxford Innovation Engine report (paragraphs
7.8), and although there are already informal links (for example, Oxford
University researchers are the most numerous users of the Diamond
Synchrotron at Harwell), in the past the institutions have not actively promoted
the relationship. However, there is recent evidence of increasing activity in this
direction: for example, a joint publication entitled “University of Oxford & Harwell
Oxford: A partnership for discovery and innovation” (September 2013)
described and promoted collaboration opportunities, and included a quote from
Dr Tim Bestwick, Executive Director of Business and Innovation at STFC,
stating that “Working together there is tremendous opportunity for the University
of Oxford and Harwell Oxford to stimulate and support the growth of high
technology companies.”
(http://www.admin.ox.ac.uk/media/global/wwwadminoxacuk/localsites/researc
hsupport/documents/impactandke/Harwell&Oxford_8pp.pdf). In addition, a
Google search identified various job advertisements at Harwell that refer to
close links with Oxford University. These factors suggest that some above trend
growth is also likely in employment in the research facilities at Harwell.
Culham
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
21
We also assume that by 2031 Culham will accommodate 1,000 additional jobs,
part of which is likely to be above trend.
In total therefore, we estimate the increase in jobs above trend could be as
follows:
5,400 (net) at Harwell and Milton Park, primarily in the EZ but also on
other land at Harwell, including some relatively small scale above trend
growth in the research facilities linked in particular to greater University of
Oxford involvement there. These jobs should be classified to a mix of
Other Professional Services, IT services, electronics and pharmaceuticals
500 at Culham, in a mix of Other Professional Services, IT services,
electronics, and pharmaceuticals.
The geographical split would be 500 in South Oxfordshire and 5,400 in Vale of
White Horse.
Space Science and Satellite technologies
As discussed above, expectations regarding the growth of research and related
business activity at Harwell are covered by land allocations, both within and
beyond the Enterprise Zone. However, the growing importance of Oxfordshire
vis-à-vis space science could have particularly significant implications for jobs
growth above and beyond existing commitments. The UK Space Agency, the
European Space Agency (ESA), the International Space Innovation Centre and
the new Satellite Applications Catapult are all based at Harwell.
The Government estimates that space science will grow from a £9bn industry
now to one worth £40bn by 2031, generating 100,000 new jobs3. Harwell has a
unique concentration of nationally significant research and commercialisation
facilities in this sector, which will undoubtedly attract firms and jobs to the area.
A reasonable assumption is that one tenth of the national growth in space
science jobs by 2031 will be based in and around Harwell.
This means that there may be approximately 10,000 new jobs in space science
and satellite technologies located in and around Harwell by 2031. A proportion
of those jobs (say 4,000) will be located on the existing sites at Harwell and
Culham and are therefore included in the figures above. Of the remainder,
some (say 2,000) will be located outside Oxfordshire (e.g. at Reading Science
Park, since the University of Reading hosts the NERC National Centre for Earth
Observation which has links with Harwell). That leaves another 4,000 jobs
within the county, most of which are likely to cluster around Harwell in Vale of
White Horse, with the remainder located further north where business space is
lower cost and expected to be in plentiful supply, and there are relevant
manufacturing and engineering skills (eg around Bicester and Banbury). These
jobs will be additional to those already in the local economy since they relate to
the commercialisation of new technologies, and therefore there is unlikely to be
a displacement effect. They are likely to be classified to a mix of ‘Other transport
equipment’ (which includes manufacture of satellites and related equipment),
3 “UK space industry set to rocket with £240 million of investment”: press release from the Department for
Business Innovation and Skills, 9 November 2012
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
22
R&D and IT services. We suggest the assumption should be that 2,500 will
locate in Vale of White Horse and 1,500 in Cherwell.
Bioscience sector
The Biocluster Report 2011: Transition, published by OBN, identified 163
bioscience firms across Oxfordshire. This represented an increase of 14%
between 2008 and 2010 (i.e. through the financial crisis and recession) with
most of the growth in stock resulting from new start-ups and spin-outs (rather
than company relocations). The report also notes that between 2008 and 2010,
the ten largest Oxfordshire-based fundraisers received some $313 million –
approximately one sixth of the total investment in the UK bioscience over the
same period and indicative of the potential within the sector for further growth.
One company, Oxford Nanopore Technologies, accounted for approximately
one third of the investment. A case study on the firm which is included in the
recently published Oxfordshire Innovation Engine report by SQW4 states that
“at an appropriate time in the company’s development, Oxford Nanopore
Technologies is likely to open a manufacturing facility in Oxfordshire which may
start by employing 50-100 people.”
The local development of manufacturing may not be an appropriate option for
the growth of all bioscience firms (e.g. some will remain focused on R&D and
licence their technologies to be manufactured elsewhere, some are purely
service organisations), but it is reasonable to assume that other firms in
Oxfordshire will follow the growth path sketched out by Oxford Nanopore (the
OBN report classifies 24 other bioscience firms in Oxfordshire to the same sub
sector as Oxford Nanopore). If one other bioscience firm every two to three
years follows this path over the period to 2031, and these facilities continue to
grow after initial establishment, then this would create at least 1,500 new jobs
over the period, and possibly considerably more. The most likely location for
such manufacturing facilities is the north of the county, where property costs
are lower and there are strong manufacturing skills in the workforce.
In addition, the Medical Science Division of the University of Oxford has
attracted a substantial amount of investment by corporates and charities in
Oxford (mainly co-located with the Medical Sciences Division at the Churchill
site), and this is likely to continue. The proposed bioescalator alone could create
around 500 new jobs, and this facility should accelerate the formation and
growth of bioscience firms linked to the research base. Development of the
Northern Gateway will provide business space to accommodate larger
bioscience and other technology based firms, which will complement existing
provision at Oxford Science Park and Oxford Business Park. The Northern
gateway alone is able to accommodate up to 7,000 jobs when fully developed
and occupied.
Based on the growth potential of the bioscience sector in Oxfordshire, we
estimate that 1,000 new jobs (above trend) could be created in Cherwell,
and 1,500 new jobs (also above trend) in Oxford. There will also be new job
creation in the south of the county, but we assume this is already accounted for
4 http://www.sqw.co.uk/news#david-willetts-launches-sqw-report-the-oxfordshire-innovation-engine-
realising-the-growth-potential
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
23
in the above figures for the Harwell, Milton Park and Culham. These jobs are
most likely to be categorised to R&D or pharmaceuticals.
Health sector
The NHS is investing in centres of excellence, of which Oxford is one. Oxford is
a leading global centre for cancer research, and Nuffield Orthopaedic does a lot
of international work. The scale of research at the University Medical Science
Division and the investment it has attracted has already been mentioned. These
factors suggest further expansion of health sector employment in Oxford is
likely, in contrast to expectations for the NHS in general which are relatively flat
due to constraints on government spending. Healthcare is labour intensive, and
generates jobs at all skill levels, hence the jobs impact of additional growth is
likely to be considerable. It should also be noted that the health sector is already
experiencing difficulty recruiting for lower paid positions due to housing costs.
The concentration of NHS investment on centres of excellence, and the
attractions of Oxford for the private and charitable health sector, could result in
an additional 2,500 jobs in Oxford to 2031 above trend, which would amount
to growth of just over 10% in employment in the sector over this period. The
trend growth is largely related to the growth and ageing of the population,
whereas the above trend growth is related to an increased focus of research
and specialist healthcare on the health facilities in Oxford. Therefore these
additional jobs would be most likely be classified to a mix of R&D and
healthcare.
Advanced engineering
Within the advanced engineering sector in Oxfordshire, auto engineering is
particularly important. BMW in Oxford has been a major success story, although
employment has remained constant at about 4,000 for the last 10 years, despite
increased production. However, BMW announced in December 2013 that they
will increase employment by 1,000 in their UK manufacturing plants over the
next three years, with the majority of that increase at Cowley. We understand
that the increase at Cowley is expected to be 700 permanent jobs. BMW are
also developing plans to expand onto the former Rover sports ground to create
additional manufacturing jobs, and are talking to major suppliers regarding the
possibility of consolidating some activities at the Cowley site, although the
outcome of these talks is uncertain.
In the motorsport sector, some of the firms within Oxfordshire have major
expansion potential. For example:
Caterham F1, located in West Oxfordshire, has 200 employees at
present and is likely to grow to 400 assuming it retains the F1 team. It is
also possible that it will move Caterham Cars to Oxfordshire from Kent.
The site has plenty of room for employment growth
Williams already employ 500 people at Grove and are expanding into
other business areas, such as energy efficiency, exploiting the
technologies and expertise developed through their motorsport
activities. They also have substantial space for expansion
Prodrive employ 360 people at their Banbury HQ, and 500 in total in the
UK. They are in the process of moving to a new site in Banbury which
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
24
will provide 50% more floorspace and a much more efficient layout,
enabling a substantial expansion of employment.
Growth can also be expected in some other areas of advanced engineering.
Oxfordshire has long established expertise in instrument engineering, magnet
technology and cryogenics, and if the automotive and motorsport sectors grow
there will be a corresponding increase in demand in specialist supply chains
such as in composites and aerodynamics (expertise which is also in demand in
other sectors such as aerospace). Begbroke Science Park (in Cherwell District)
is likely to be a focus for R&D activities in advanced engineering, but
manufacturing and service activities are likely to be more widely dispersed
around the county.
Nationally, employment in the engineering sector is expected to continue to
decline. However, Oxfordshire has specialisms which are likely to lead to growth
locally. In some areas, the pattern of future growth may be no different from
past trends, but the expansion plans of some existing firms in the advanced
engineering sector, and the knock-on impact in the supply chain for the
motorsport and automotive sectors (including a wide range of firms based in
Oxfordshire), suggests that there is likely to be an additional 3,000 jobs in these
industries (SICs for engineering services, motor vehicles and electronics) to
2031, including 1,000 in Oxford, 1,000 in Cherwell, 500 in West Oxfordshire,
and 500 in Vale of White Horse, where the major firms are located.
Environmental technologies and green construction
The NW Bicester Eco Development is expected to support the creation of one
job per dwelling. When fully developed it is likely to comprise up to 6,000
dwellings, although the draft Cherwell Local Plan expects at least 1,800 homes
and jobs to be delivered in the period to 2031. A significant proportion of the
jobs are expected to be in eco construction and environmental goods and
services, to exploit the opportunities relating to the Eco Development itself and
also the consequent branding of ‘Eco Bicester’ (which has, for example,
stimulated a large energy efficiency retrofit programme for the existing housing
stock in Bicester). For example, at least 150 construction jobs are expected to
be created to build the development over a 30 year period, many involving
training (including apprenticeships) in sustainable construction methods.
Currently there are 400 people employed in construction in Bicester, so this
would involve a significant increase.
There will also be opportunities to supply specialist products and services to
construct the Eco Development (in areas such as ground source heating, solar
photovoltaics, water recycling, etc), and an Eco Business Centre (part funded
by Government grant, and likely to accommodate around 100 jobs) is expected
to stimulate jobs in the sustainable construction and environmental goods and
services sectors.
All construction in the county (and elsewhere in the country) will be affected by
changes to building regulations which will introduce tougher standards
regarding energy efficiency, etc. Hence the market for new methods and
materials will grow, but the Eco Development at Bicester is likely to attract
particular attention as the first designated ecotown in the country.
Implications for employment
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Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
25
There are firms in these sectors in the county already that can supply some of
the required goods and services, but the Eco Development is expected to
stimulate a step change in jobs growth, particularly in and around Bicester.
Cherwell Council’s assumptions regarding the speed of development of eco
homes and jobs on the development are conservative (largely because of other
housing sites in Bicester which are likely to be developed over the same period).
The assumed rate is 100 per year, although it could easily be twice that rate,
particularly as demand for housing is likely to increase in response to economic
growth. It would therefore be reasonable to assume an additional 150 jobs in
construction and 1,000 in environmental goods and services over the
period to 2031. Whilst many of these additional jobs will be in Cherwell, some
are likely to be distributed more widely across the county.
Retail
Despite the general downturn in the High Street retailing sector in recent years
as a consequence of both the squeeze on incomes and a shift towards on-line
retailing, there is a significant amount of development activity underway and
planned in Oxfordshire which suggests that the sector will continue to
experience employment growth in future ahead of national trends.
In Oxford, a planning application for redevelopment and expansion of the
Westgate Centre has been received. The timescale is for construction to start
in 2015 and completion by 2017. John Lewis has committed to the new scheme.
The net additional retail is between 54,500 sqm and 81,900 sqm (compared
with the current 34,000 sqm). It also includes associated services (Class A2-A5
uses), which range from 6,200 sqm to 27,000 sqm new additional floorspace,
and a new cinema (D2) of 5,990 sqm. The redevelopment is expected to create
3,400 net new jobs, although it could also result in some short term
displacement. This would result in an increase in retail employment in Oxford of
over 40%.
Elsewhere in Oxford, district retail centres have remained buoyant. Templar
Square in the south of the city is due to be refurbished: this will not increase
floorspace but it will make the existing space more secure.
Elsewhere in the county there are schemes underway or planned at:
Abingdon - completion of the town centre retail development
Banbury – various sites around the town centre are identified in the local
plan for redevelopment/regeneration for town centre uses including retail
Bicester - including further expansion of retail and other services in the
town centre which is expected to create 1,000 new jobs, as well as
proposed expansion of Bicester Village Outlet Centre
Didcot - phase 2 of the town centre retail development will comprise
26,600 sqm and, together with other schemes proposed in South
Oxfordshire totalling 32,800sqm is expected to generate 1,500 new jobs
Witney - at least two national supermarket chains are seeking to establish
in the town.
Botley – the West Way shopping centre development is expected to create
about 700 new jobs, the majority of which will be in retail.
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
26
Of these developments, the only three which can be argued to be above trend,
at least in part, are the West Way development in Botley, and the major
expansions of the Westgate Centre in Oxford and of the Bicester Village Outlet
Centre.
The Westgate Centre development will lead to a major, one-off employment
increase in the city, but it could be argued that over the period to 2031 a large
proportion of this reflects trend growth in response to growing demand – it is
simply all concentrated into one major development. However, the scale of the
development (which is likely to treble or quadruple the size of the existing
centre) suggests that a proportion will be above trend, and act to increase the
draw of Oxford to a wider retail catchment population.
The Outlet Centre at Bicester Village is likely to undergo a major expansion,
taking over the adjacent site currently occupied by Tesco (in turn, Tesco plans
to move to a larger site nearby which should enable the planning permission for
Bicester Business Park to be implemented). The outlet centre draws on a
national and international market, as evidenced by the regular Bicester Village
coach service from London and the highly international composition of the
visitor population.
Many of the jobs created by the West Way shopping centre development are
expected to be within the trend growth of service provision related to population
increase over the next 20 years, and some will also displace jobs from other
areas. However, the retail sector, where the majority of employment is to be
created, is likely to have some above trend impact on growth in employment.
These three retail developments in Oxfordshire could result in an additional (i.e.
above trend) 1,000 jobs in Oxford, 1,000 in Cherwell and 200 in Vale of
White Horse to 2031.
Warehousing and distribution
Oxfordshire is also benefitting from investment in retail distribution, with demand
for large distribution centres in Didcot from the likes of Amazon and Tesco.
There are currently planning applications or pre-application discussions
underway for around 300,000 sqm of B8 space on several sites linked to Didcot
Power Station in Vale of White Horse which, based on the applicants’ jobs
estimates, would create around 4,500 jobs, compared with the ‘uplift’ of 1,500
jobs assumed by Vale of White Horse Council in relation to local plan land
allocations. The applicant’s jobs estimates appear unduly optimistic, perhaps
driven by a desire to secure planning permission, but nevertheless, significant
jobs growth seems likely.
Expansion of warehousing and distribution in Cherwell is also likely when
Graven Hill in Bicester comes forward for development. The draft Local Plan
states that at least 2,470 jobs are expected to be created on the site, including
a mix of B1, B2 and B8 (warehousing) uses. However, the site is particularly
well suited to logistics, more so than most other employment sites in Bicester:
it is already a logistics base for the army, and has a direct rail link as well as
excellent access to the M40. This scale of growth of logistics jobs in Bicester is
well in excess of what would be expected based on recent trends.
Implications for employment forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
27
Existing development proposals suggest that there is potential for growth of
employment in warehousing and distribution in the order of 1,000 jobs in
Cherwell, and 1,500 in Vale of White Horse.
Major infrastructure investment
The investment in a new station at Water Eaton, the new owners’ intentions to
expand business air traffic at Oxford Airport, and the University’s ambition for
further development at Begbroke, all suggest that the area immediately to the
north of Oxford is likely to be subject to development pressure in the period to
2031. The draft Cherwell Local Plan makes most provision for employment and
housing growth in the district to 2031 at Bicester, but does also refer to a minor
Green Belt review to accommodate a small technology park of 6.5ha (23,000
sqm) at Langford Lane adjacent to Oxford Airport. At B1 employment densities5,
this could accommodate around 2,000 employees.
In addition, at Oxford Airport operations-related development has permitted
development rights. The owners have plans for it to expand to provide daily
flights to various UK and European destinations as well as an increase in
maintenance and other aerospace related activities on the site. There are 800
employees in 20 companies on the airport at present, and further growth of
these organisations is expected, but over and above this, employment could
increase by another 1,000 in the next 10 years if the plan to introduce scheduled
flights is implemented.
The recent and on-going improvements to rail links through Oxfordshire,
including the fast service from Banbury and Bicester to London Marylebone, the
Oxford to Bicester link, improvements to Oxford station, and further ahead
progress with east west rail and on improving capacity between Oxford and
Didcot, will all act to stimulate economic activity and demand for housing.
The latter will originate from both local people and commuters. For example,
the draft Cherwell local plan proposes 7,000 new homes in Bicester between
2011 and 2031, and a similar scale of jobs growth. The plan notes the high level
of commuting both into and out of Bicester and seeks a better balance in future
between the scale and type of jobs and housing growth. However, the huge
improvements in accessibility that Bicester will experience through completion
of the above rail improvements may well, in practice, increase commuting which
may in turn fuel demand for more housing than is currently planned. Equally,
however, it should also make Bicester more attractive to firms, leading to more
jobs growth and enabling more residents to find jobs locally
The infrastructure improvements identified above are likely to affect demand for
housing irrespective of employment growth. However, specifically in relation to
employment forecasts, it could be argued that most of the investment is needed
to support the growth already factored into local plans. The main exception to
this could be the potential for both employment and housing to the north of
Oxford in Cherwell District linked to Water Eaton station, investment in Oxford
Airport, the proposed Oxford Technology Park and the potential for further
employment at Begbroke Science Park. Plans for Oxford airport and the
5 HCA/Offpat Employment Densities Guide, 2nd Edition (2010) suggest that typical B1 office densities range
between 10 and 12 sq m per employee (full time equivalent).
Implications for employment
forecasts
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
28
nearby technology park could add 2,000 jobs in the next 10 years, over and
above trend. This allows for the fact that some jobs at the technology park will
already be included in the sector specific comments above. The additional
1,000 jobs at the airport would be mainly in aerospace but including some in
retail and catering. The technology park would be likely to accommodate a mix
of R&D, engineering services, electronics and aerospace.
In addition, the longer term, larger scale development opportunities in the area
could result in further jobs growth, but this is speculative and could not currently
be considered to be part of a ‘Planned Economic Growth’ forecast.
4.3 Factors which could depress growth below trend
Public sector spending reductions
The Government’s spending plans envisage a continued squeeze on public
sector jobs. The forecasts therefore indicate lower growth in public sector
employment than would be expected from past trends, except in Oxford where
the composition of public sector employment is unusual, with a high proportion
of employment in the universities and the health sector, both of which (as
explained elsewhere in this section) are likely to grow. .
The other area of public sector jobs where declines are expected is in the
Defence sector. There is substantial defence related employment in
Oxfordshire, but the trend is to replace MOD jobs with private sector jobs in
locations such as Brize Norton and Graven Hill (Bicester). Therefore although
the sector classification may change, the number of jobs is unlikely to be very
different.
Publishing
Oxfordshire has some very large employers and a high proportion of jobs in
publishing. There is an increasing trend to move some publishing functions
offshore, due to pressure to reduce costs combined with fact that market growth
is overseas, particularly in Asia. However, interviews with two major Oxfordshire
based publishing companies for the Oxford Innovation Engine report suggest
than local employment is likely to remain stable, with all of the growth taking
place overseas.
The trends for employment in publishing in Oxfordshire suggest that little overall
change is likely to 2031. We suggest that this should remain the assumption in
the Planned Economic Growth forecasts.
Competition from major surrounding areas
There are various major development proposals in surrounding areas which
could affect business growth in Oxfordshire, due to competition for scarce skills.
These include:
In Cherwell, competition for auto engineers from Jaguar Land Rover (JLR)
and from the expansion of motorsport related employment in south
Northamptonshire, particularly at Silverstone where a major technology
and business park development is proposed. Interviews with Oxfordshire
firms such as Prodrive in Banbury have identified intense competition for
scarce skills, with JLR and F1 teams apparently willing and able to pay
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
29
higher salaries. Competition is also likely from a proposed18ha business
park as part of the proposed new settlement at Gaydon/Lighthorne at M40
Junction 12 in Stratford on Avon District.
In Science Vale, competition from employers in Thames Valley for labour
supply generally, and IT and engineering skills in particular. The major
employers in the Thames Valley are multinationals with strong strategic
reasons for retaining their presence in the area (assuming the role of
Heathrow as major hub airport is not threatened) and in many cases an
ability to pay high salaries to attract and retain good quality staff. The
demographics of South Oxfordshire and Vale of White Horse show an
ageing workforce with limited growth in working age population, which
suggests that competition for staff will increase significantly as the EZ is
developed. Competition will also be provided by the proposed University of
Reading Science Park, which will eventually provide around 80,000 sqm of
business space, and for which an access road is expected to be
completed in 2016.
In Oxford, competition from Reading and London for the growth of
business, financial and professional services. Many such firms have a twin
presence in Oxford and Reading, but regard Reading as the main
business centre (possibly partly because of the lack of modern office
accommodation in central Oxford). Increasingly, high tech firms look to
London for funding and specialist professional services, thereby bypassing
local service providers.
The above factors are risks which could impact on employment growth in
Oxfordshire. However, the strength of the Oxfordshire economy, the potential
for commercial exploitation of R&D undertaken in the county by both private and
public sectors, and the growth potential of firms in some key sectors, all suggest
that competition from surrounding areas will not adversely affect employment
growth. The exception may be if infrastructure or labour market constraints in
Oxfordshire are significantly worse than in surrounding areas, particularly those
to the south and east which offer a strategic location which is at least as good,
if not better (i.e. closer to London and Heathrow). Currently there is no indication
that this is likely: other areas have similar constraints. Therefore we do not
propose any changes to the Planned Economic Growth employment forecasts
as a result of competition from surrounding areas.
4.4 Conclusions
Table 4.2 indicates that there could be growth of 27,750 net direct jobs (i.e.
allowing for displacement but excluding multiplier effects) due to the impact of
growth oriented economic policies and known investment plans. Table 4.2
breaks this total down by time period, district and sector. It should be noted that
these figures are estimates based on the best available information, which
comprises a mixture of primary and secondary data, and professional
judgement based on a thorough knowledge of the Oxfordshire economy and
key institutions.
Two thirds of the additional growth is expected to be in the period to 2021,
largely because this reflects the impact of investments that are currently at
Implications for employment
forecasts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
30
planning or implementation stages. It would be reasonable to assume that other
investments will come forward over the following 10 years which may boost
expectations for growth in the period 2021-31, but in the main these cannot be
anticipated.
The areas where employment growth based on past trends may be under-
estimated include:
Oxford, where it seems likely that there will be significant growth of
employment in education (university related), bioscience and healthcare
(also partly university related), and retail. There is also likely to be an
increase in corporate R&D linked to the Universities, the most likely areas
including biomedical, engineering and computing. This may be slightly
offset by some decline in publishing, though the expectation from firms in
this sector is no net growth. We estimate additional growth of 8,100 jobs,
all of which would be accommodated within existing employment-
generating sites (though most not on B Class land)
Science Vale, where there is strong potential for both inward investment
and growth of existing businesses in the specialist technology areas
relating to the area’s research and companies base: space science and
satellite communications, the physical sciences, and biomedical. There is
also scope for significant growth of distribution in this area. We estimate
additional growth of around 10,000 jobs is likely to occur in Vale of White
Horse, and 600 in South Oxfordshire. Most of these jobs are likely to be
located on existing employment sites, particularly within the EZ and on
other land at Harwell
Cherwell, including in particular Bicester and possibly the area around
Kidlington and Water Eaton. In Bicester there is the potential for
employment growth, based on the availability of relatively cheap
accommodation and a growing labour supply, in the bioscience, advanced
engineering and warehousing and distribution sectors, and also in
environmental technologies and construction relating to the Eco
Development. At Oxford Airport and nearby (Oxford Technology Park and
Begbroke) there are plans for significant jobs growth. In the wider area
north of Oxford, including Water Eaton, there is long term potential for
growth of R&D activities, although this is not currently part of approved
policy. We therefore estimate additional growth of over 8,000 jobs in
Cherwell to 2031, all of which could be accommodated on land identified
for development in the draft local plan.
In West Oxfordshire there is potential for rapid growth of existing firms,
particularly in engineering, motorsport and food production. However, it
seems very unlikely that growth will exceed local plan allocations for B
uses. We estimate additional growth of around 600 jobs, although this
could be greatly affected by the investment decisions of a few firms.
Employment land allocations can accommodate this scale of additional
growth.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
31
Table 4.2: Summary of above trend jobs growth in Oxfordshire to 2031
Type of jobs Total 2011-21 2021-31 Cherwell Oxford South
Oxfordshire
Vale of
White
Horse
West
Oxfordshire
Sector
University 2,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 Education
Culham research 500 250 250 500 R&D, IT services, electronics,
pharmaceuticals
Enterprise Zone 5,400 5,400 5,400 R&D, IT services, electronics,
pharmaceuticals
Satellite technology 4,000 2,000 2,000 1,500 2,500 R&D, IT services, other transport services
Bioscience 2,500 1,250 1,250 1,000 1,500 R&D, pharmaceuticals
Healthcare 2,500 1,250 1,250 2,500 Healthcare, R&D
Advanced engineering 3,000 1,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 500 500 Motor vehicles, electronics, electrical
equipment, architectural & engineering
services
Construction 150 150 150 Construction
Environment
technologies
1,000 500 500 600 100 100 100 100 Other professional services
Retail 2,200 2,100 100 1,000 1,000 200 Retail
Distribution 2,500 1,500 1,000 1,000 1,500 Warehousing & postal
Oxford airport and
technology park
2,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 Air transport, R&D, electronics, retail, food &
beverage services, architectural &
engineering services
Total 27,750 17,900 9,850 8,250 8,100 600 10,200 600
Source: SQW
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
32
5 Planned Economic Growth Forecasts
5.1 Introduction
The assumptions described in Chapter 4 represent the direct impact on
employment (over and above what would be expected in a business-as-usual
projection) that we might expect due to new policy and planned investment. As
well as the direct impacts, we would also expect there to be: indirect impacts
through local supply chain activity (for example, increased activity in most
sectors is likely to lead to increased purchases of financial or business services,
say, some of which will be supplied by local firms), and; induced impacts
through increases in household spending (eg on retailing), due to increased
local employment and household income.
The Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM) incorporates: an input-output
framework, so that the indirect impacts through supply chain activity can be
estimated, and; linkages between wages, household incomes, spending and
demand for local services so that induced impacts can be estimated.
The direct additional employment by sector in Oxfordshire, from Chapter 4, are
added to the employment from the Adjusted Population-based projections in
LEFM and the model run to create the Planned Economic Growth forecast with
direct and indirect impacts. The results are presented below.
5.2 Headline findings for the Planned Economic Growth forecasts
Figure 5.1 shows total employment in Oxfordshire under the Baseline and
Alternative Population-based projections and Planned Economic Growth
forecast. The chart shows that the Planned Economic Growth forecast is
significantly higher than the Alternative Population-based projections, from
which it was developed.
Overall growth in employment in
Oxfordshire
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Figure 5.1: Employment in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections and Planned Economic Growth forecasts - Oxfordshire
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
33
Table 5.1 shows that total employment in Oxfordshire in this stage is forecast
to increase by around 88,000 over 2011-31, or 4,400 pa (1% pa). This
compares with growth of around 3,000 pa (0.8% pa) seen over 2001-11.
Sustained employment growth of 1% pa over a 20 year period would be an
achievement, especially in the current economic environment, but is by no
means unprecedented.
Compared to the Alternative Population-based projections, employment in the
county in the Planned Economic Growth forecast increases by an additional
38,000 jobs. This consists of the 27,750 jobs described in Chapter 4, and
10,500 additional indirect and induced jobs (in sectors such as business support
services) stimulated by these activities.
Table 5.1 and Figure 5.2 compare employment growth by sector in Oxfordshire
in the two stages of the forecast. The sectors with the greatest additional
employment in the Planned Economic Growth forecasts are those in which the
additional direct jobs described in Chapter 4 were allocated: manufacturing,
distribution, transport & storage, information & communications, financial &
business services and government services.
The additional indirect (supply chain) and induced (household spending) jobs
associated with the direct jobs are mainly in business support services: financial
& business services. While many of the direct jobs in the sectors described in
Chapter 4 will be in R&D, the majority of the other jobs that are stimulated will
be in distribution, transport & storage and government services.
Growth projections by
sector
Table 5.1: Employment by sector in the Alternative Population-based projections and Planned Economic Growth forecasts in Oxfordshire
Alternative Population Planned Economic Growth
2011 2031 2011-31 2011 2031 2011-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture etc 2.3 5.2 2.9 4.2 2.3 5.2 2.9 4.2
Mining & quarrying 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.7 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -1.7
Manufacturing 26.9 24.7 -2.2 -0.4 26.9 32.8 5.9 1.0
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 4.2 -0.1 -0.1 4.3 4.2 -0.1 -0.1
Construction 22.2 25.9 3.7 0.8 22.2 26.5 4.3 0.9
Distribution 52.0 58.1 6.1 0.6 52.0 61.7 9.7 0.9
Transport & storage 11.8 14.9 3.1 1.2 11.8 19.1 7.3 2.4
Accommodation & food services 23.4 30.6 7.3 1.4 23.4 31.2 7.8 1.5
Information & communications 21.9 22.3 0.4 0.1 21.9 25.2 3.3 0.7
Financial & business services 78.1 102.6 24.5 1.4 78.1 116.1 38.0 2.0
Government services 114.7 119.1 4.4 0.2 114.7 123.5 8.9 0.4
Other services 23.0 22.8 -0.2 -0.1 23.0 23.2 0.2 0.0
Total 380.6 430.5 49.9 0.6 380.6 468.8 88.2 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and SQW, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
34
Figure 5.3 shows the distribution of the additional jobs in the Planned Economic
Growth forecasts within Oxfordshire.
Vale of White Horse is projected to have the biggest increase in jobs over the
increase projected in the Alternative Population-based projections, with 12,400
extra jobs projected by 2031 in the Planned Economic Growth forecast. 10,200
of these additional jobs are jobs directly associated with the development
assumptions described in Chapter 4, including 5,400 in the Enterprise Zone in
Harwell. In contrast, only 1,800 additional jobs would occur in West Oxfordshire
(600 direct, with the rest indirect due to the Planned Economic Growth direct
jobs across the county).
Growth projections by
district
Figure 5.3: Projected change in jobs (000s) 2011-31 in the Alternative Population-
based projections and Planned Economic Growth forecasts – Oxfordshire districts
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Cherwell Oxford SouthOxfordshire
Vale of WhiteHorse
WestOxfordshire
PlannedEconomicGrowth
AlternativePopulation
Figure 5.2: Projected change in employment (000s) 2011-31 in the Alternative Population-based projections and Planned Economic Growth forecast – broad sectors in Oxfordshire
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Planned EconomicGrowth
Alternative
Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
35
The Planned Economic Growth forecasts have greater disparity in employment
growth across Oxfordshire than is the case in the Alternative Population-based
projections. The additional jobs located in the Vale of White Horse results in
the district having the strongest employment growth of 1½% pa over 2011-31.
In contrast, the growth in South Oxfordshire and West Oxfordshire will be just
¾% pa. Nevertheless growth in all other districts would be almost double the
rate projected for them in the Alternative Population-based projections.
Table 5.3 shows the direct and indirect impact of the Planned Economic Growth
forecasts over and above the Alternative Population-based projections, by
district. The table shows that the indirect jobs impact in a district can be greater
than the direct jobs impact in that district (South Oxfordshire and West
Oxfordshire). This is because the indirect impacts (mainly Financial & business
services) are not necessarily generated in the same district as the direct
impacts, and are related to the proportion of the relevant sector in each district.
Table 5.3: Direct and indirect employment impacts in the Planned Economic Growth forecasts - 2031 (000s)
Direct Indirect Total
Oxfordshire 27.7 10.5 38.3
Cherwell 8.2 2.6 10.8
Oxford 8.1 2.9 11.0
South Oxfordshire 0.6 1.7 2.3
Vale of White Horse 10.2 2.2 12.4
West Oxfordshire 0.6 1.2 1.8
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and SQW, January 2014.
Table 5.2: Employment in the Alternative Population-based projections and Planned Economic Growth forecasts
Alternative Population Planned Economic Growth
2011 2031 2011-31 2031 2011-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (000s) (% pa)
Oxfordshire 380.6 430.5 49.9 0.6 468.8 88.2 1.0
Cherwell 79.4 90.1 10.8 0.6 100.9 21.6 1.2
Oxford 123.2 136.6 13.4 0.5 147.6 24.3 0.9
South Oxfordshire 65.1 74.2 9.1 0.7 76.5 11.5 0.8
Vale of White Horse 67.2 77.9 10.6 0.7 90.2 23.0 1.5
West Oxfordshire 45.7 51.7 6.1 0.6 53.5 7.9 0.8
South East* 4,387.2 4,834.9 447.7 0.5
UK* 31,175.0 35,075.7 3,900.7 0.6
Notes: * Figures for South East and UK are for CE’s baseline forecast.
Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics and SQW, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
36
6 Risk Assessment of the Planned Economic Growth Forecasts
6.1 Introduction
Section 5 on the Planned Economic Growth forecasts concluded that there
could be an additional 88,200 jobs in Oxfordshire between 2011 and 2031,
compared with 49,900 additional jobs in the adjusted population forecast. This
section considers the risks that need to be considered in delivering this scale of
jobs growth, and how they should be factored into the overall forecasting work.
The risks considered include market conditions, labour market competition from
neighbouring areas, delays in the delivery of strategic infrastructure, access to
housing and the capacity of existing employment sites (including those
allocated, or proposed to be allocated, in local plans) to accommodate this scale
of growth.
6.2 Market conditions
Market conditions are clearly crucial to the speed of economic growth and the
scale of private investment. The country is currently emerging from a prolonged
economic downturn which has depressed business investment and growth
since 2008. All the economic indicators currently point to recovery: for example,
the Markit/CIPS UK services survey for November 2013 recorded the fastest
rate of growth in the UK services sector for the last 16 years, and the PwC
Economic Outlook report (also for November 2013) notes that UK
manufacturers have benefited from somewhat stronger trends recently in key
European export markets, and that the UK construction sector has also picked
up from a low base in the past six months.
These indicators of growth are of course short term, whereas the forecasts look
ahead to 2031. Over the next 18 years there are bound to be further economic
cycles, including periods of growth and downturn. In addition, the government
is still committed to further reductions in public spending, and this will directly
affect employment in some sectors, and indirectly in others.
As far as possible, the econometric forecasts take account of factors such as
the Government’s policy to reduce public spending, but they cannot anticipate
the timing of economic cycles. If the economic recovery continues, it is quite
possible that growth over the next five years will be above that in the forecasts,
but over the next 20 years it is reasonable to assume that the ‘booms and busts’
will even out and that the forecasts are the best indication currently of the scale
of growth over the period as a whole.
6.3 Labour market competition
Oxfordshire is surrounded by strong economies which are also growing, and
the jobs market in London is an increasing draw for residents in the county. This
means that employers in Oxfordshire wishing to expand their workforce will be
competing for labour with firms across a much wider geography than
Oxfordshire. In the south of the county, where growth is expected to be fastest,
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
37
competition is also likely to be greatest due to the strength of the Thames Valley
and London economies.
However, it is also the case that Oxfordshire has some very strong economic
assets and attractions. The Universities and research institutes in the county
are outstanding internationally, not just within UK, and the Science Vale
Enterprise Zone provides incentives to firms which are not available to firms in
nearby areas. Many of the additional jobs that are expected to be stimulated by
policy interventions will be in high value activities, and are likely to pay well. This
will make them attractive to a labour force which has a choice of where to work.
The Oxfordshire Innovation Engine report noted that “shortages of scientific and
technical skills were identified by most respondents to our business survey as
a constraint to growth….However, these concerns reflect national, and in some
cases global shortages.” (paragraph 3.20). In other words, there are labour
market constraints, but no worse than in other areas. And in some respects,
Oxfordshire’s situation close to the Thames Valley and London to the south,
and the West Midlands conurbation to the north, is regarded as an advantage
in labour market terms, because firms based in Oxfordshire can draw on the
specialist management and marketing skills available in those areas (paragraph
3.21).
6.4 Infrastructure delivery
Delays in the delivery of key infrastructure may constrain growth. For example,
the Oxfordshire Innovation Engine report identifies congestion on the A34 and
in and around Oxford, and broadband access in some of Oxfordshire’s rural
areas, as significant concerns for firms. There are also local access issues for
some employment sites: for example, around the Peartree site in north Oxford,
and access to Harwell remains poor.
In addition, there has been very little business space constructed over the last
five years, except to order for specific end users. There has been almost no
supply of business space on a speculative basis, even in the Science Vale
Enterprise Zone. However, the property market is recovering, along with the
rest of the economy, and therefore an increase in construction of commercial
premises over the next few years is likely. For example, at Harwell STFC are in
the process of changing their commercial joint venture partner in order to speed
up development in the EZ, at Milton Park some speculative development has
started, and market research for the economic strategy for NW Bicester
indicates demand for business space there and a willingness to construct as
soon as land is made available through the planning system.
Over the next 20 years it is certainly possible that failure to improve some key
elements of Oxfordshire’s infrastructure could frustrate firms and persuade
them to invest elsewhere – and continued reductions in public expenditure are
likely to increase the probability of delays to improving key infrastructure.
However, the jobs growth potential identified in Chapter 4 is, generally, not
dependent on specific infrastructure improvements which could be delayed. In
addition, there are investments underway or planned by the private sector – for
example by the University in the Science Area in Oxford, at Oxford Airport, and
the NW Bicester Eco Development – which will stimulate jobs growth.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
38
Furthermore, firms’ frustration with low levels of infrastructure investment,
identified in the Oxfordshire Innovation Engine report, is not a problem that is
unique to Oxfordshire: it is at least as bad in most surrounding areas.
6.5 Inter-relationship between employment forecasts and housing requirements
There is a possibility that the housing requirements linked to a high rate of
economic growth may be impossible to satisfy due to practical limitations on
housebuilding rates. If housing requirements are not met, the consequence
would be rising housing costs which could in turn constrain the ability of firms to
recruit, and therefore to grow. This would introduce an element of circularity in
the forecasts – economic growth forecasts are used to determine housing
requirements, but undeliverable housing requirements impact on economic
growth potential and therefore lead to a downward revision of the economic
growth forecasts.
We have considered this possibility by comparing the forecast rates of
economic growth in the Planned Economic Growth forecasts contained in this
paper with those produced by Experian in their High Economic Growth scenario
for the SHMA, and with past rates of economic growth in Oxfordshire and also
those in some comparator high growth areas in Cambridgeshire and
Buckinghamshire. These comparisons are shown in Table 6.1.
The overall conclusion is that the rates of employment growth forecast under
the Planned Economic Growth forecast are modest in comparison with past
rates of growth in Oxfordshire or in the comparator areas.
The Planned Economic Growth forecast shows growth of 1% per annum 2011-
31 for Oxfordshire, and by district forecast annual growth rates range from a
high of 1½% (Vale of White Horse) to a low of ¾% (South Oxfordshire and West
Oxfordshire). The fact that Vale of White Horse is highest is not surprising given
the concentration of employment generating assets in the district – in particular,
the research facilities at Harwell and the Enterprise Zone.
The average annual employment growth rate in the Planned Economic Growth
forecast is 0.4 percentage points (pp) above the rate for the adjusted population
forecast (0.6%), but 0.5 pp below (ie two thirds of) the rate for the Experian high
economic forecast.
In comparison, between 1981 and 2000 Table 6.1 shows that employment in
Oxfordshire grew by an average annual rate of 1.7% pa. By district, growth rates
ranged between 3.5% pa (West Oxfordshire) and 0% pa (Oxford City). For the
period 1990 to 2011 (which includes the impact of the recent recession) the
average annual growth rate dropped to 0.7% pa for Oxfordshire, and ranged
between 1.1% pa (West Oxfordshire) and 0.4% pa (Oxford City) in the districts.
For the period 2000-2011 Oxfordshire’s employment growth dropped further to
0.4% pa.
Considering comparator areas, employment growth in Cambridgeshire
averaged 2.3% pa over the period 1981-2000, and 1.2% pa 1990-2011. The
highest average annual employment growth in the comparators was in Milton
Keynes, where it averaged 4% pa 1981-2000 and 1.5% pa over 1990-2011.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
39
Table 6.1: Housing completions and employment growth in Oxfordshire and selected other local authorities
Period Oxford-
shire
Cherwell Oxford South
Oxford-
shire
Vale of
White
Horse
West
Oxford-
shire
Cambridge-
shire
South
Cambridge-
shire
Huntingdon Buckingham-
shire
Aylesbury
Vale
Milton
Keynes
Dwellings completed (pa)
2003/04-2012/13 1811 347 436 242 378 402 1860 705 665 1490 720 1602
Employment growth (% pa)
Actual 1981-2000 1.7 2.6 0.0 2.7 2.1 3.5 2.3 4.0 3.1 1.4 0.8 4.0
Actual 1990-2011 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 2.5 1.2 0.2 -0.3 1.5
Actual 2000-2011 0.4 -0.7 1.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.2 2.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.1
Forecast 2011-31
Experian High
Economic Growth
1.5 1.6 1.7 1.2 1.9 1.2
Forecast 2011-31 CE
Alternative Population
0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6
Forecast 2011-31 CE
Planned Economic
Growth
1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.5 0.8
Sources: CLG - dwelling completions. ONS and Cambridge Econometrics (CE) – historical employment growth. CE – forecast employment growth. Experian – forecast employment growth.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
40
From Table 6.1 it is also possible to make some observations about the
relationship between employment growth and dwellings completions and
requirements – albeit the two sets of figures are for slightly different periods.
In Oxfordshire, over the ten years 2003/4-2012/13, annual dwelling completions
averaged just over 1,800. This was during a period when employment growth
rates were averaging around 0.4%. In Cambridgeshire over the same period
annual housing completions were very similar, whereas employment growth
averaged 1.2% per annum. In Buckinghamshire, both housing completions and
employment growth were lower than in Oxfordshire.
Therefore, based on past rates of employment and housing growth there is no
evidence that one constrained the other. In some places employment growth
was faster despite comparable rates of housing provision, and in Oxfordshire
since 1981 there have been periods of faster and slower employment growth
than are forecast by the Planned Economic Growth forecasts for the period to
2031.
6.6 Capacity of allocated sites
Table 6.2 compares the Planned Economic Growth forecasts by district with the
jobs capacity on sites that are allocated or proposed to be allocated for
development within the period of the relevant local plans (the end points vary
somewhat between plans, but all are close to 2031 and therefore the variation
does not invalidate this analysis). The capacity information in Table 6.2 is based
on estimates provided by the District Councils, and shown in full in the
Appendices.
Table 6.2 also shows the Planned Economic Growth forecasts adjusted to
include only those likely to locate on B Class land, to make the figures
comparable with the capacity of allocated sites. This involves assumptions
about the proportion of jobs in each main sector locating on B Class land, which
are shown in Table 6.3.
Table 6.2: Jobs growth compared with capacities on allocated sites (000s)
Planned
Economic
Growth jobs
growth
Jobs likely to be
located on B Class
land
Capacity of
allocated sites
Oxfordshire 88.2 47.0 63.1
Cherwell 21.6 12.7 17.3
Oxford 24.3 11.0 18.5
South Oxfordshire 11.5 5.4 5.0
Vale of White Horse 23.0 13.8 14.3
West Oxfordshire 7.9 4.0 6.5
Source(s): SQW and District Councils.
Notes: the capacity in South Oxfordshire includes 500 jobs on 6.5ha at Didcot in Vale of White Horse, which has been agreed to be part of South Oxfordshire’s employment land allocations.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
41
Based on these assumptions, Table 6.2 shows that overall in Oxfordshire there
is plenty of capacity on allocated sites to accommodate the forecast jobs growth.
There is also sufficient land in all of the districts except South Oxfordshire.
However, there is enough additional capacity in the immediately adjacent area
of Vale of White Horse to compensate for the small shortfall in South
Oxfordshire.
The Planned Economic Growth forecasts show that most employment growth
in Oxfordshire over 2011-31 is likely to occur in financial and business services
(43%), with another 10% in Government services and 11% in distribution. The
assumptions in Table 6.3 about the proportion of jobs in these sectors that
occupy B Class land are obviously crucial to the land requirement. For example,
if it is assumed that only 50% of jobs in financial and business services will
locate on B Class land, rather than 75%, then there is sufficient land in all
districts including South Oxfordshire.
The conclusions also depend on the density of jobs on sites. District Councils
are best placed to decide what the appropriate jobs densities are on their
employment sites, hence we have used their own estimates contained in the
appendices.
6.7 Conclusions
The purpose of this Chapter has been to identify key risks that could affect the
profiling of jobs growth over time and act as a constraint on their delivery. Key
findings include:
Market conditions are improving, and there is no indication that they will
constrain employment growth to 2031. In fact, it is possible that short term
market conditions could lead to faster growth than forecast over the next
few years.
Labour market constraints are a problem for many firms, but the main
problems are skills which are in short supply nationally, and in some cases
Table 6.3: Assumptions regarding the proportion of jobs in each sector occupying B Class land
Sector % of jobs on B
Class land
% of total
employment growth
in Oxfordshire (2011-
31)
Agriculture 0 3.3%
Mining & quarrying 0 -0.1%
Manufacturing 100 6.7%
Electricity, gas & water 0 -0.1%
Construction 0 4.9%
Distribution 50 11.0%
Transport & storage 50 8.3%
Accommodation & food services 0 8.9%
Information & comms. 50 3.7%
Fin. & business services 75 43.1%
Government services. 25 10.0%
Other services 75 0.2%
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
42
internationally, not competition from surrounding areas. The juxtaposition
to areas with a good supply of management and marketing skills, which
complement the strong technology skills in Oxfordshire’s workforce, is a
benefit to firms. The quality of jobs likely to be created in Oxfordshire will
help ensure that firms are able to recruit by paying competitive salaries.
Infrastructure constraints are a concern to firms, but there is no evidence
that they will be a constraint to growth in the short term. Longer term, they
could deter investment, and this is clearly a risk to sustaining the pace of
economic and employment growth in the county to 2031
The rates of employment growth in Oxfordshire and the five districts
generated by the Planned Economic Growth forecasts are not particularly
high by historical standards, or in comparison to some other areas. Based
on past rates of employment and housing growth there is no evidence that
one constrained the other
Employment land requirements resulting from the forecasts are well within
the total allocated across the county, and in all districts except South
Oxfordshire. Here the conclusion is sensitive to the assumptions about the
proportion of financial and business services that will locate on B Class
land.
In order to take account of these risks, a "sensitivity adjustment" could be
applied, on the assumption that all or any of them could result in employment
growing more slowly than forecast. Given the improving economic conditions
currently, and the absence of immediate constraints on growth, any slowdown
in employment growth is more likely in the second half of the period to 2031
rather than between now and 2021.
However, firms and people will always adapt to conditions as they evolve, and
it is unlikely that Oxfordshire will be particularly disadvantaged – for example, in
relation to infrastructure investment or housing growth – compared with its
neighbours. Market adjustments may include an increase in commuting
between north and south of the county (to address housing shortages or high
prices in the south), or increased working from home and more flexible working
hours (to address transport congestion).
We would therefore not recommend that the Planned Economic Growth
forecasts are reduced to account for the risks discussed in this Chapter,
because they do not appear to us to be particularly likely to reduce employment
growth below that forecast.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
43
7 APPENDICES
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
44
Appendix A: The Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM)
LEFM has been developed by CE in collaboration with the Institute for
Employment Research at the University of Warwick. It is, to our knowledge, the
only software package in Europe tailored to model regional and local economies
and designed to conventional commercial software standards. It has been
commercially available since the early 1990s (since when it has been
continually developed) and is designed to empower organisations to undertake
detailed economic analysis in-house. It is used extensively by local agencies,
including local authorities, and by CE for more specialised analysis often
commissioned by development agencies.
LEFM has been designed to project economic indicators for a local area by
explaining the output of local industries through an explicit representation of
expenditure flows in the area and their links with the world outside the local
area. In this it differs from other methods of local economy modelling which
typically link local output or employment (by sector) directly to national or
regional output or employment. Such methods include shift-share or
econometrically estimated equations. While these methods allow a user to
derive projections for local output or employment growth from national or
regional projections, they offer little scope for introducing an explanation of local
performance relative to these higher levels, and they are typically not suitable
for analysing the indirect effects on the local economy arising from the opening
of a new enterprise or the closure of an existing one.
LEFM is also distinguished from other approaches by its sectoral detail. It
identifies 45 sectors (defined on SIC07), allowing (for example) electronics to
be distinguished from electrical equipment, and IT services from other business
support services. Detailed disaggregation by sector is usually valuable because
different sectors have different prospects (eg technological change is driving
much faster growth in electronics and computing than in the other sectors with
which they are commonly combined), because they have different employment
characteristics, and also because it allows local knowledge about specific firms
to be more easily incorporated in the forecast. There is, however, a cost to
working in such detail: most variables in the model have to be disaggregated by
sector (or a similar classification: see below for more details).
LEFM’s structure draws heavily on that of MDM, Cambridge Econometrics’
multi-sectoral model of the UK economy and its regions, and it shares the same
software.
LEFM’s Main Inputs and Outputs
The main input assumptions used in LEFM are:
forecasts for the UK and region in which the local economy lies for
selected variables, including
- the components of domestic final expenditure, disaggregated into
spending by function as published in the UK National Accounts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
45
- components of personal incomes
- gross output, value-added and employment by 45 sectors
- matrices to convert the components of domestic final expenditure into
commodity demand for 45 sectors
- input-output coefficients and projected changes
- projected changes in occupational structure and gender forecasts for
the local economy
- population by 5-year age band and gender
- participation rate by gender for a constant level of unemployment
(these are then adjusted by the model in response to actual changes in
unemployment)
Outputs for the local economy include:
- value-added and employment by sector (45)
- employment by gender and status (full-time, part-time, self-employed)
- employment by occupation (25 occupations, SOC2010)
- disposable income and consumer spending
- population and labour force by age (7 age bands) and gender
- net commuting
- implications for qualifications
LEFM’s Main Relationships
Figure A.1 summarises the model’s accounting structure, which follows the
social accounting matrix approach adopted in MDM. In most cases, the
variables shown in the diagram are disaggregated (eg by sector for output and
employment).
Each industry’s gross output is determined as the difference between
commodity demand (the sum of demand coming from the final expenditure
components together with intermediate demand coming from production in the
local economy) and imports to the local area. Each industry’s value-added is
assumed to be in the same proportion to its gross output as is the case for the
region as a whole.
Employment in the local area generates incomes. Assumptions are made for
net commuting, which determines the extent to which incomes from local
employment accrue to non-residents. Similarly, some incomes in the local area
are derived from employment outside the area, or from non-employment
sources (eg unemployment benefit). Aggregate household expenditure by
residents in the local area is determined by real household disposable incomes
(deflated by the national household expenditure deflator) and projections for the
household saving ratio (derived from changes in the regional household saving
ratio). Household expenditure is then disaggregated into spending by function
according to the proportions forecast for the region.
Accounting structure
How the main variables are
determined
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
46
Government final expenditure (disaggregated by type) in the local economy is
projected on the basis of changes in the local area’s share of the region’s
population.
Investment by sector is determined by a simple relationship with output.
Projections for social investment (eg education, health) and investment in social
services (eg roads), which are treated as assumptions at the UK level in MDM,
are allocated to the local area according to population changes.
Intermediate expenditure by sector and commodity is determined by applying
the national input-output coefficients to local economy gross output by sector.
Exports by sector from the local economy are linked to national gross
commodity output in each sector. In effect, local firms are treated as competing
in the national pool. Export projections then depend upon UK gross commodity
output in each sector, and on assumptions for trends in the local economy’s
share of this output. In some cases, simple methods have been tried to model
these export shares (eg to represent the effects of policies to promote inward
investment). Imports by sector to the local economy depend on the demand for
commodities in the local economy and on assumptions for import shares.
Employment by sector is determined by gross output and trends in productivity
per person employed derived from regional projections (which in turn are
derived from econometric estimates). Employment by gender and type is
determined by the sectoral composition of employment and local information on
the representation of genders and types of employment in each industry The
default projections for trends in this representation are based on historical data
for the local area, with the user given the option to change these default values.
A similar procedure is followed for employment by occupation.
Projections for the resident workforce are derived from assumptions for the
population for working age (by gender) and projected participation rates which
vary with the unemployment rate. Unemployment is the difference between the
workforce, local employment and ‘net commuting’.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
47
Figure A.1: The Structure of LEFM
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
48
Appendix B: Summary Results for Cherwell
Table B.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Cherwell
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 79.4 84.6 89.2 5.2 0.6 4.7 0.5
Alternative Population 79.4 84.7 90.1 5.3 0.6 5.5 0.6
Planned Economic Growth 79.4 91.4 100.9 12.0 1.4 9.6 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure B.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Cherwell
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
49
Table B.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Cherwell
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 142.3 156.3 162.9 13.9 0.9 6.6 0.4
Alternative Population 142.3 152.1 160.6 9.9 0.7 8.5 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure B.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Cherwell
140
145
150
155
160
165
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Alternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
50
Table B.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - Cherwell
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.2 10.3 0.2 1.0
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 -4.5
Manufacturing 8.7 9.2 8.5 0.5 0.6 -0.8 -0.9
Electricity, gas & water 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Construction 5.2 5.7 6.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.5
Distribution 16.3 17.5 18.2 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.4
Transport & storage 2.6 3.1 3.3 0.5 1.7 0.2 0.6
Accommodation & food services 4.7 5.3 5.8 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.9
Information & comms. 3.3 3.1 3.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.6
Fin. & business services 13.8 16.4 19.9 2.7 1.8 3.5 1.9
Government services. 19.3 17.7 17.7 -1.6 -0.9 0.0 0.0
Other services 3.9 3.8 3.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4
Total 79.4 84.6 89.2 5.2 0.6 4.7 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table B.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - Cherwell
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.2 10.3 0.2 1.0
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -3.3
Manufacturing 8.7 9.3 8.6 0.6 0.6 -0.7 -0.8
Electricity, gas & water 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Construction 5.2 5.7 6.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.6
Distribution 16.3 17.5 18.3 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.4
Transport & storage 2.6 3.1 3.3 0.5 1.7 0.3 0.8
Accommodation & food services 4.7 5.4 6.0 0.7 1.4 0.6 1.0
Information & comms. 3.3 3.1 3.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.2 0.7
Fin. & business services 13.8 16.5 20.2 2.7 1.8 3.7 2.0
Government services. 19.3 17.5 17.7 -1.7 -0.9 0.2 0.1
Other services 3.9 3.8 3.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3
Total 79.4 84.7 90.1 5.3 0.6 5.5 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
51
Table B.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - Cherwell
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.7 1.9 2.1 1.2 10.3 0.2 1.0
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -3.3
Manufacturing 8.7 10.5 10.9 1.8 1.9 0.4 0.4
Electricity, gas & water 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
Construction 5.2 6.0 6.4 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.7
Distribution 16.3 18.9 19.8 2.6 1.5 0.9 0.5
Transport & storage 2.6 4.3 5.4 1.7 5.2 1.1 2.4
Accommodation & food services 4.7 5.5 6.2 0.8 1.7 0.6 1.1
Information & comms. 3.3 3.4 3.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4
Fin. & business services 13.8 18.5 23.8 4.7 3.0 5.3 2.6
Government services. 19.3 17.7 17.9 -1.6 -0.9 0.2 0.1
Other services 3.9 3.9 3.8 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Total 79.4 91.4 100.9 12.0 1.4 9.6 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
52
Appendix C: Summary Results for Oxford
Table C.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Oxford
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 123.2 123.2 127.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.4
Alternative Population 123.2 129.3 136.6 6.1 0.5 7.3 0.5
Planned Economic Growth 123.2 136.2 147.6 12.9 1.0 11.4 0.8
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure C.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Oxford
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
53
Table C.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Oxford
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 150.2 149.8 150.6 -0.4 0.0 0.8 0.1
Alternative Population 150.2 168.5 187.0 18.3 1.2 18.5 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure C.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Oxford
140
145
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Alternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
54
Table C.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - Oxford
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 11.1 0.0 1.1
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 -2.5
Manufacturing 4.6 3.6 2.8 -1.0 -2.5 -0.8 -2.6
Electricity, gas & water 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -1.0 0.0 0.3
Construction 3.9 4.1 4.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.4
Distribution 10.8 11.1 11.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Transport & storage 4.2 5.1 5.3 0.9 2.0 0.1 0.3
Accommodation & food services 6.9 7.7 8.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.6
Information & comms. 8.7 8.2 8.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.1
Fin. & business services 18.0 20.5 23.4 2.6 1.3 2.9 1.3
Government services. 59.2 55.6 57.0 -3.6 -0.6 1.4 0.3
Other services 5.9 5.9 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Total 123.2 123.2 127.8 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.4
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table C.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - Oxford
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 11.2 0.1 1.2
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 -2.5
Manufacturing 4.6 3.6 2.8 -1.0 -2.4 -0.8 -2.5
Electricity, gas & water 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 0.0 0.3
Construction 3.9 4.2 4.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.4
Distribution 10.8 11.4 11.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5
Transport & storage 4.2 5.2 5.4 1.0 2.1 0.2 0.4
Accommodation & food services 6.9 7.7 8.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7
Information & comms. 8.7 8.2 8.3 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.1
Fin. & business services 18.0 20.6 23.7 2.6 1.4 3.1 1.4
Government services. 59.2 61.2 64.5 2.0 0.3 3.3 0.5
Other services 5.9 6.0 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Total 123.2 129.3 136.6 6.1 0.5 7.3 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
55
Table C.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - Oxford
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 11.2 0.1 1.1
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 -1.2
Manufacturing 4.6 4.6 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Electricity, gas & water 1.0 0.9 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 0.0 0.4
Construction 3.9 4.2 4.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.5
Distribution 10.8 12.6 13.2 1.8 1.5 0.6 0.5
Transport & storage 4.2 5.3 5.6 1.1 2.4 0.3 0.5
Accommodation & food services 6.9 7.8 8.4 0.9 1.3 0.5 0.7
Information & comms. 8.7 8.3 8.5 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.2
Fin. & business services 18.0 22.5 27.0 4.5 2.3 4.5 1.8
Government services. 59.2 63.5 68.4 4.3 0.7 4.9 0.8
Other services 5.9 6.0 6.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Total 123.2 136.2 147.6 12.9 1.0 11.4 0.8
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
56
Appendix D: Summary Results for South Oxfordshire
Table D.1: Total Employment in each Stage – South Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 65.1 69.4 72.8 4.3 0.6 3.4 0.5
Alternative Population 65.1 69.8 74.2 4.7 0.7 4.4 0.6
Planned Economic Growth 65.1 71.4 76.5 6.4 0.9 5.1 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure D.1: Total Employment in each Stage - South Oxfordshire
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
57
Table D.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - South Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 135.0 142.5 146.1 7.4 0.5 3.6 0.3
Alternative Population 135.0 143.8 151.4 8.9 0.6 7.5 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure D.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - South Oxfordshire
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Alternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
58
Table D.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - South Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 4.3 0.0 0.3
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.8
Manufacturing 4.0 4.1 3.7 0.1 0.3 -0.4 -1.1
Electricity, gas & water 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1
Construction 4.3 4.6 4.9 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.5
Distribution 9.3 9.9 10.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3
Transport & storage 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.2
Accommodation & food services 4.9 6.2 7.0 1.3 2.4 0.8 1.2
Information & comms. 3.0 2.8 3.3 -0.2 -0.5 0.5 1.6
Fin. & business services 20.1 22.4 24.4 2.3 1.1 2.0 0.9
Government services. 12.5 11.9 12.0 -0.6 -0.5 0.1 0.1
Other services 4.4 4.4 4.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Total 65.1 69.4 72.8 4.3 0.6 3.4 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table D.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - South Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 4.3 0.0 0.4
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.8
Manufacturing 4.0 4.2 3.8 0.1 0.4 -0.4 -1.0
Electricity, gas & water 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Construction 4.3 4.7 5.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.6
Distribution 9.3 10.0 10.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5
Transport & storage 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2
Accommodation & food services 4.9 6.3 7.2 1.4 2.5 1.0 1.5
Information & comms. 3.0 2.8 3.3 -0.1 -0.5 0.5 1.6
Fin. & business services 20.1 22.4 24.6 2.3 1.1 2.1 0.9
Government services. 12.5 12.0 12.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.3
Other services 4.4 4.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Total 65.1 69.8 74.2 4.7 0.7 4.4 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
59
Table D.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - South Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 4.3 0.0 0.4
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.8
Manufacturing 4.0 4.3 4.0 0.3 0.7 -0.3 -0.7
Electricity, gas & water 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Construction 4.3 4.7 5.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.7
Distribution 9.3 10.2 10.7 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5
Transport & storage 1.7 2.0 2.0 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.3
Accommodation & food services 4.9 6.4 7.4 1.5 2.7 1.0 1.4
Information & comms. 3.0 2.9 3.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.6 1.8
Fin. & business services 20.1 23.2 25.8 3.1 1.5 2.6 1.1
Government services. 12.5 12.1 12.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.4 0.3
Other services 4.4 4.4 4.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Total 65.1 71.4 76.5 6.4 0.9 5.1 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
60
Appendix E: Summary Results for Vale of White Horse
Table E.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Vale of White Horse
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 67.2 71.7 76.4 4.4 0.6 4.7 0.6
Alternative Population 67.2 72.1 77.9 4.9 0.7 5.8 0.8
Planned Economic Growth 67.2 81.6 90.2 14.4 2.0 8.6 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure E.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Vale of White Horse
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
61
Figure E.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Vale of White Horse
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
145
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Alternative Population
Table E.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Vale of White Horse
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 121.9 131.2 134.5 9.3 0.7 3.2 0.2
Alternative Population 121.9 131.5 139.3 9.6 0.8 7.8 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
62
Table E.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - Vale of White Horse
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.6 5.9 0.1 0.5
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -5.9 0.0 -5.2
Manufacturing 4.4 4.7 4.3 0.3 0.7 -0.4 -0.9
Electricity, gas & water 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
Construction 5.1 5.6 6.0 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.6
Distribution 8.8 9.4 9.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3
Transport & storage 2.1 2.6 2.7 0.4 1.8 0.2 0.7
Accommodation & food services 3.6 4.2 4.8 0.6 1.6 0.6 1.3
Information & comms. 4.9 4.6 5.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.5 1.1
Fin. & business services 18.0 20.2 22.9 2.2 1.2 2.7 1.3
Government services. 14.0 13.4 13.9 -0.5 -0.4 0.5 0.4
Other services 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Total 67.2 71.7 76.4 4.4 0.6 4.7 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table E.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - Vale of White Horse
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.6 5.9 0.1 0.5
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.8 0.0 -4.5
Manufacturing 4.4 4.7 4.4 0.4 0.8 -0.4 -0.8
Electricity, gas & water 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Construction 5.1 5.7 6.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.8
Distribution 8.8 9.4 9.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4
Transport & storage 2.1 2.6 2.8 0.4 1.9 0.2 0.8
Accommodation & food services 3.6 4.2 4.9 0.6 1.7 0.7 1.5
Information & comms. 4.9 4.6 5.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.6 1.2
Fin. & business services 18.0 20.2 23.1 2.3 1.2 2.9 1.3
Government services. 14.0 13.6 14.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.9 0.7
Other services 4.2 4.3 4.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1
Total 67.2 72.1 77.9 4.9 0.7 5.8 0.8
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
63
Table E.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - Vale of White Horse
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.8 1.4 1.5 0.6 6.0 0.1 0.5
Mining & quarrying 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.8 0.0 -4.5
Manufacturing 4.4 7.3 7.6 2.9 5.2 0.3 0.4
Electricity, gas & water 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Construction 5.1 5.7 6.2 0.7 1.3 0.5 0.8
Distribution 8.8 9.7 10.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5
Transport & storage 2.1 3.7 4.5 1.5 5.4 0.9 2.2
Accommodation & food services 3.6 4.3 5.0 0.7 1.8 0.7 1.5
Information & comms. 4.9 6.0 7.0 1.1 2.0 1.0 1.6
Fin. & business services 18.0 24.1 27.8 6.1 3.0 3.7 1.4
Government services. 14.0 13.7 14.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.9 0.7
Other services 4.2 4.3 4.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.1
Total 67.2 81.6 90.2 14.4 2.0 8.6 1.0
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
64
Appendix F: Summary Results for West Oxfordshire
Table F.1: Total Employment in each Stage - West Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 45.7 48.4 50.8 2.7 0.6 2.4 0.5
Alternative Population 45.7 48.6 51.7 2.9 0.6 3.1 0.6
Planned Economic Growth 45.7 49.8 53.5 4.1 0.9 3.7 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure F.1: Total Employment in each Stage - West Oxfordshire
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
65
Table F.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - West Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 105.4 116.4 122.7 11.0 1.0 6.3 0.5
Alternative Population 105.4 115.3 123.9 9.9 0.9 8.5 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure F.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - West Oxfordshire
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
BaselineAlternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
66
Table F.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - West Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.4 0.0 0.6
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.0 -2.4
Manufacturing 5.2 5.6 5.1 0.5 0.9 -0.5 -1.0
Electricity, gas & water 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.3
Construction 3.8 4.2 4.4 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.5
Distribution 6.8 7.2 7.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4
Transport & storage 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.2 2.0 0.1 0.6
Accommodation & food services 3.3 3.8 4.1 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.9
Information & comms. 1.9 1.8 2.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 1.6
Fin. & business services 8.3 9.4 10.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4
Government services. 9.8 9.3 9.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.4
Other services 4.6 4.6 4.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
Total 45.7 48.4 50.8 2.7 0.6 2.4 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table F.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - West Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.5 0.0 0.6
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 -1.9
Manufacturing 5.2 5.6 5.1 0.5 0.9 -0.5 -0.9
Electricity, gas & water 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Construction 3.8 4.2 4.4 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.6
Distribution 6.8 7.2 7.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5
Transport & storage 1.1 1.4 1.5 0.3 2.1 0.1 0.7
Accommodation & food services 3.3 3.8 4.2 0.5 1.5 0.4 1.0
Information & comms. 1.9 1.8 2.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.3 1.7
Fin. & business services 8.3 9.5 11.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6
Government services. 9.8 9.3 9.9 -0.5 -0.5 0.6 0.6
Other services 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1
Total 45.7 48.6 51.7 2.9 0.6 3.1 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
67
Table F.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - West Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 6.5 0.0 0.6
Mining & quarrying 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 -1.8
Manufacturing 5.2 5.9 5.6 0.8 1.4 -0.3 -0.5
Electricity, gas & water 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2
Construction 3.8 4.2 4.5 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.6
Distribution 6.8 7.4 7.8 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5
Transport & storage 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.3 2.4 0.1 0.8
Accommodation & food services 3.3 3.9 4.3 0.6 1.7 0.4 1.0
Information & comms. 1.9 1.9 2.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.4 1.8
Fin. & business services 8.3 9.9 11.8 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7
Government services. 9.8 9.4 10.0 -0.4 -0.4 0.6 0.6
Other services 4.6 4.7 4.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Total 45.7 49.8 53.5 4.1 0.9 3.7 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
68
Appendix G: Summary Results for Oxfordshire
Table G.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 380.6 397.3 417.0 16.7 0.4 19.7 0.5
Alternative Population 380.6 404.6 430.5 24.0 0.6 26.0 0.6
Planned Economic Growth 380.6 430.5 468.8 49.9 1.2 38.3 0.9
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure G.1: Total Employment in each Stage - Oxfordshire
350
370
390
410
430
450
470
490
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Alternative Population
Planned Economic Growth
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
69
Table G.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 655.0 696.2 716.8 41.2 0.6 20.5 0.3
Alternative Population 654.8 711.4 762.2 56.6 0.8 50.9 0.7
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure G.2: Total Population in the Baseline and Alternative Population-based projections - Oxfordshire
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Alternative Population
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
70
Table G.3: Employment projections by broad sector in the Baseline projections - Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 2.3 4.8 5.1 2.5 7.7 0.4 0.7
Mining & quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -1.3 0.0 -3.3
Manufacturing 26.9 27.3 24.4 0.4 0.2 -2.9 -1.1
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 4.1 4.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0
Construction 22.2 24.3 25.6 2.1 0.9 1.3 0.5
Distribution 52.0 55.2 56.8 3.2 0.6 1.7 0.3
Transport & storage 11.8 14.0 14.6 2.2 1.8 0.6 0.4
Accommodation & food services 23.4 27.2 29.9 3.9 1.5 2.7 0.9
Information & comms. 21.9 20.5 22.1 -1.3 -0.6 1.6 0.8
Fin. & business services 78.1 88.9 101.5 10.8 1.3 12.6 1.3
Government services. 114.7 107.8 110.2 -6.8 -0.6 2.3 0.2
Other services 23.0 22.9 22.5 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.2
Total 380.6 397.3 417.0 16.7 0.4 19.7 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Table G.4: Employment projections by broad sector in the Alternative Population-based projections - Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 2.3 4.8 5.2 2.5 7.7 0.4 0.8
Mining & quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -2.6
Manufacturing 26.9 27.4 24.7 0.5 0.2 -2.7 -1.0
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 4.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Construction 22.2 24.4 25.9 2.2 0.9 1.5 0.6
Distribution 52.0 55.5 58.1 3.5 0.7 2.6 0.5
Transport & storage 11.8 14.1 14.9 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.6
Accommodation & food services 23.4 27.4 30.6 4.1 1.6 3.2 1.1
Information & comms. 21.9 20.6 22.3 -1.3 -0.6 1.7 0.8
Fin. & business services 78.1 89.3 102.6 11.1 1.3 13.4 1.4
Government services. 114.7 113.8 119.1 -0.9 -0.1 5.4 0.5
Other services 23.0 23.0 22.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1
Total 380.6 404.6 430.5 24.0 0.6 26.0 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
71
Table G.5: Employment projections by broad sector in the Planned Economic Growth forecast - Oxfordshire
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 2.3 4.8 5.2 2.5 7.7 0.4 0.8
Mining & quarrying 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -2.6
Manufacturing 26.9 32.6 32.8 5.7 2.0 0.2 0.1
Electricity, gas & water 4.3 4.2 4.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0
Construction 22.2 24.8 26.5 2.6 1.1 1.7 0.7
Distribution 52.0 58.8 61.7 6.8 1.2 2.9 0.5
Transport & storage 11.8 16.7 19.1 4.9 3.5 2.4 1.4
Accommodation & food services 23.4 27.9 31.2 4.6 1.8 3.3 1.1
Information & comms. 21.9 22.5 25.2 0.7 0.3 2.6 1.1
Fin. & business services 78.1 98.2 116.1 20.1 2.3 18.0 1.7
Government services. 114.7 116.5 123.5 1.8 0.2 7.1 0.6
Other services 23.0 23.4 23.2 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1
Total 380.6 430.5 468.8 49.9 1.2 38.3 0.9
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
72
Appendix H: Summary Results for the South East
Table H.1: Employment Forecast - South East
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 4387.2 4601.0 4834.9 213.8 0.5 234.0 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure H.1: Employment Forecast - South East
4100
4200
4300
4400
4500
4600
4700
4800
4900
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
73
Table H.2: Population Projection - South East
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 8653.0 9453.5 10007.0 800.5 0.9 553.5 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: ONS and Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure H.2: Population Projection - South East
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
74
Table H.3: Employment Forecast by Broad Sector - South East
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 32.2 52.1 54.8 20.0 4.9 2.7 0.5
Mining & quarrying 4.2 3.9 3.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -1.7
Manufacturing 282.3 294.2 268.5 11.9 0.4 -25.7 -0.9
Electricity, gas & water 51.8 50.0 50.5 -1.7 -0.3 0.4 0.1
Construction 300.6 352.3 387.0 51.7 1.6 34.7 0.9
Distribution 665.4 714.8 736.1 49.4 0.7 21.3 0.3
Transport & storage 191.1 224.8 238.0 33.6 1.6 13.2 0.6
Accommodation & food services 266.9 312.2 339.2 45.4 1.6 27.0 0.8
Information & comms. 251.6 242.5 272.6 -9.1 -0.4 30.1 1.2
Fin. & business services 911.6 1026.2 1154.1 114.6 1.2 127.9 1.2
Government services. 1148.0 1063.4 1071.2 -84.6 -0.8 7.9 0.1
Other services 281.6 264.5 259.7 -17.1 -0.6 -4.8 -0.2
Total 4387.2 4601.0 4834.9 213.8 0.5 234.0 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
75
Appendix I: Summary Results for UK
Table I.1: Employment Forecast - UK
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 31175.0 33460.5 35075.7 2285.5 0.7 1615.2 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure I.1: Employment Forecast - UK
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
34000
35000
36000
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
76
Table I.2: Population Projection - UK
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Baseline 63233.0 68351.6 72558.2 5118.6 0.8 4206.6 0.6
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 people.
Source: ONS and Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Figure I.2: Population Projection - UK
58000
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
70000
72000
74000
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
000s
Baseline
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
77
Table I.3: Employment Forecast by Broad Sector- UK
2011 2021 2031 2011-21 2021-31
(000s) (000s) (000s) (000s) (% pa) (000s) (% pa)
Agriculture 395.9 375.5 360.1 -20.4 -0.5 -15.4 -0.4
Mining & quarrying 59.0 64.5 55.2 5.5 0.9 -9.3 -1.5
Manufacturing 2531.9 2434.9 2173.7 -97.0 -0.4 -261.3 -1.1
Electricity, gas & water 321.0 362.3 385.8 41.3 1.2 23.6 0.6
Construction 2019.6 2490.3 2583.1 470.7 2.1 92.8 0.4
Distribution 4713.8 4994.4 5042.9 280.6 0.6 48.5 0.1
Transport & storage 1462.9 1609.3 1655.9 146.4 1.0 46.6 0.3
Accommodation & food services 1989.9 2306.7 2592.3 316.8 1.5 285.6 1.2
Information & comms. 1213.9 1285.2 1435.1 71.3 0.6 149.9 1.1
Fin. & business services 6307.6 7414.3 8120.6 1106.8 1.6 706.3 0.9
Government services. 8404.7 8301.6 8782.8 -103.1 -0.1 481.2 0.6
Other services 1754.8 1821.3 1888.1 66.5 0.4 66.8 0.4
Total 31175.0 33460.5 35075.7 2285.5 0.7 1615.2 0.5
Notes: Figures are rounded to the nearest 100 jobs.
Source: Cambridge Econometrics, January 2014.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
78
Appendix J: LEFM Industry Definitions
Table J.1: Cambridge Econometrics’ Industries (45) Defined in Terms of SIC2007
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
79
Table J.2: Cambridge Econometrics' Broad Sectors (12) Defined in Terms of SIC 2007
Sector SIC2007
1 Agriculture etc 01-03
2 Mining & quarrying 05-09
3 Manufacturing 10-33
4 Electricity, gas & water 35-39
5 Construction 41-43
6 Distribution 45-47
7 Transport & storage 49-53
8 Accommodation & food services 55-56
9 Information & communications 58-63
10 Financial & business services 64-82
11 Government services 84-88
12 Other services 90-96
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
80
Appendix K: Employment sites and job capacities for Oxfordshire Districts
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
81
Table K.1: Employment sites and jobs in Cherwell
Site Name
Total land
for
employment
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in Local
Plan period
Jobs by Use Class (%)
Comments B1 B2 B8
Cherwell
Bicester 1 - North West Bicester 37 (25.5 up to
2031)
1,800 within
plan period
60% 20% 20% Based on draft NW Bicester masterplan which includes approx 35,000sqm of
mixed B1/B2/B8 space, plus 20,000 sqm of B1 space. Likely build out and
take up of business space more rapid than indicated in local plan - assume
2,500 jobs created on site by 2030, rather than 1,800
Bicester 2 - Graven Hill 26 2,070 10% 20% 70% Mix of B uses guesstimated, based on indications that site is most favoured in
Bicester for large scale B8 uses.
Bicester 4 - Bicester Business Park 17.5 3,850 100% B1 Offices/business uses. Some of land likely to go for retail (relocation of
Tesco to site to enable Bicester Village to expand) and hotel use.
Bicester 5 - Strengthening Bicester Town Centre 1000 Retail with some ancillary offices. Sainsbury expansion - 870 jobs - plus some
office jobs.
Bicester 8 - RAF Bicester 17 (Bicester
Masterplan)
2,244 (Bicester
Masterplan)
50% 50% Proposals for the site include a museum for RAF Bomber Command, the
development of hotel and conference facilities, and a range of workshop,
storage and service activities related to classic aircraft and road vehicles.
Balance of different uses may in practice be more B8 and less B1.
Bicester 10 - Bicester Gateway 7.5 990 100% The site is closest to the M40 and the best located in Bicester to attract
hightech knowledge intensive B1 uses. However, the amount of office/R&D
space proposed for Bicester Gateway (990 jobs), Bicester Business Park
(3,850 jobs) and NE Bicester Business Park (1,090 jobs) combined is
ambitious compared with the nature of demand for high tech uses in this area,
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
82
Site Name
Total land
for
employment
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in Local
Plan period
Jobs by Use Class (%)
Comments B1 B2 B8
Cherwell
which is more oriented towards manufacturing with some office space, rather
than exclusively office/R&D space.
Bicester 11 - North East Bicester Business Park 2.7 1,092 100% B1 Office/Business uses only - see comment above. Of the three sites, this is
probably the least attractive due to its greater distance from the M40/A34
and Bicester Town rail station.
Bicester 12 - East Bicester 18 3241 (some
beyond plan
period)
20% 30% 50% Mixed B Use classes. The draft Local Plan expects this site to come forward for
development towards the end of the plan period, therefore only part of the
site is likely to be developed by 2030.
Banbury 1 - Canalside The draft local plan indicates 15,000sqm of retail/commercial use and some
live work uses but no B uses.
Banbury 6 - Land west of M40 6.3 (net
remaining
area)
15% 35% 50% Mixed Use site, excellent strategic location with good access, though some
remediation work will be necessary as part of the development. Includes over
500 jobs on part of the site already constructed and another 1,000 jobs on the
remainder of the site
Banbury 7 - Strengthening Banbury town centre Retail
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
83
Site Name
Total land
for
employment
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in Local
Plan period
Jobs by Use Class (%)
Comments B1 B2 B8
Cherwell
Banbury 8 - Land at Bolton Road 2 Identified for a mix of town centre uses in the draft Local Plan - retail, leisure,
hotel. No B uses proposed
Banbury 9 - Spiceball 4.5 Identified for a mix of town centre uses in the draft Local Plan - retail, leisure,
hotel. No B uses proposed
http://www.cherwell.gov.uk/index.cfm?articleid=3244
Includes:
Cherwell Economic Analysis Study 2012
Employment Land Review 2006
Employment Land Review Update 2012
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
84
TableK.2: Employment sites and jobs in Oxford
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Oxford
Bioescalator
22.73 0.58 5575 sqm
(B1)
City Deal
Sites and
Housing
DPD
4460
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 139 Brownfield site:
within Churchill
Hospital campus.
Whilst this is
redevelopment
floorspace figures
are additional to
include
principally B1(b),
but some B1(c)
and B2
32 5575 174
Scie
nce
Par
k
4460
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
85
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Magnet Science
Oxford
0.25 0.25 2150 sqm
(B1)
City Deal
West End
AAP
1720
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 143 Brownfield site:
occupied by
Oxford
Innovation.
Demolition and
redevelopment
floorspace
additional
12 2150 179
Gen
eral
Off
ice 1720
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
86
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Northern
Gateway
Innovation
Area
16 11.5 83600 sqm
(B1)
City Deal
Core
Strategy
DPD
66880
Bu
sin
ess
par
k
10 6688 Greenfield site:
New
employment-led
development
with housing and
complimentary
uses. No net loss
of employment
all new
floorspace
10 83600 8360
Bu
sin
ess
par
k
66880
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
87
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Gateway
Station at
Oxford
5.6 1.2 12000 sqm
(B1)
City Deal
West End
AAP
9600
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 800 Brownfield site:
Redevelopment
of existing Station
area. New
additional
floorspace
12 12000 1000
Gen
eral
Off
ice 9600
Oxpens / West
End
Renaissance
8.34 0.7 9550 sqm
(B1)
City Deal
West End
AAP
7640
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 637 Brownfield site:
redevelopment
but no net loss of
employment
uses, new
floorspace
12 9550 796
Gen
eral
Off
ice 7640
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
88
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Blackbird Leys
Central Area
5.34 1 4000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD (SP5)
3200
Serv
iced
Off
ice 10 320 Brownfield site:
Mixed-use
development to
include start-up
units, new
floorspace
10 4000 400
Serv
iced
Off
ice 3200
Cowley centre 3.65 0.25 1000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP10)
800
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 67 Brownfield site:
retail-led mixed-
use development
to include
employment
offices B1a, new
floorspace
12 1000 83
Gen
eral
Off
ice 800
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
89
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Diamond Place 1.73 0.6 2400 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP14)
1920
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 160 Brownfield site:
retail-led mixed-
use development
to include
employment
offices B1a. New
floorspace
12 2400 200
Gen
eral
Off
ice 1920
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
90
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Radcliffe
Hospital
27.03 2 8000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP23)
6400
Lig
ht
Ind
ust
rial
47 136 Brownfield site:
redevelopment of
existing buildings
to include
principally B1(b),
B1(c), and B2.
New floorspace
47 8000 170
Lig
ht
Ind
ust
rial
6400
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
91
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Littlemore
Park
5.44 5.44 3000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP30)
2400
Bu
sin
ess
Par
k
10 240 Brownfield site:
allocated for
employment B1
use, no loss of
employment, new
floorspace
created
10 3000 300
Bu
sin
ess
Par
k
2400
Nuffield
Orthopaedic
centre
8.37 2.1 8400 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP38)
6720
Lig
ht
Ind
ust
rial
47 143 Brownfield site:
redevelopment of
existing buildings
to include
research (B1b).
New floorspace
47 8400 179
Lig
ht
Ind
ust
rial
6720
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
92
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Old Road
Campus
4.43 4.43 48000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP39)
38400
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 1200 Brownfield site:
redevelopment of
existing buildings
to include
principally B1(b);
new research
uses created.
32 48000 1500
Scie
nce
Par
k
38400
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
93
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Oxford
Business Park
33.5 7.94 41650 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP42)
36920
Bu
sin
ess
Par
k
10 3692 Brownfield site:
Comprises
undeveloped
plots for mainly
B1a use. New
floorspace
created
10 46150 4615
Bu
sin
ess
Par
k
36920
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
94
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Oxford Science
Park
23 8.06 32250 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP43)
25800
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 806 Brownfield site:
Comprises
undeveloped
plots for mainly
B1 use, new
floorspace
created
32 32250 1008
Scie
nce
Par
k
25800
Oxford Science
Park at
Minchery Farm
2.35 2.35 9400 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP44)
7520
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 235 Brownfield site:
No loss of
employment, new
floorspace use
B1,
32 9400 294
Scie
nce
Par
k
7520
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
95
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Oxford
University
Press Sports
Ground
3.65 0.65 2600 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP45)
2080
Serv
iced
Off
ice 10 208 Greenfield site:
Residential-led
development
with some
complementary
B1 use. New
additional
floorspace
10 2600 260
Serv
iced
Off
ice 2080
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
96
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Radcliffe
Observatory
Quarter
4.27 0.5 2000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP47)
1600
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 50 Brownfield site:
Redevelopment
for University use
but would
include some
new additional
B1(a) & B1(b)
32 2000 63
Scie
nce
Par
k
1600
Rovers Sports
Ground
9.92 9.92 39700 sqm
(B2)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP49)
31760
Ind
ust
rial
36 882 Greenfield site:
Development for
extension to
BMW (B2). New
additional
floorspace
36 39700 1103
Ind
ust
rial
31760
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
97
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Travis Perkins 0.72 0.14 2100 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP56)
1680
Gen
eral
Off
ice 12 140 Brownfield site:
Development for
new floorspace
B1 use. App.
09/02518/OUT
12 2100 175
Gen
eral
Off
ice 1680
Wolvercote
Paper Mill
4.95 1.16 4640 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP62)
3712
Serv
iced
Off
ice 10 371 Brownfield site:
Residential-led
development
with new
floorspace
employment use
B1
10 4640 464
Serv
iced
Off
ice 3712
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
98
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Island site 0.77 0.19 750 sqm (B1) West End
AAP
600
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 50 Brownfield site:
Redevelopment
of existing
buildings to
include some
offices (B1a).
New additional
floorspace
12 750 63
Gen
eral
off
ice 600
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
99
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Worcester St.
Car Park
0.54 0.2 800 sqm (B1) West End
AAP
640
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 53 Brownfield site:
New
development to
include some
offices (B1a).
New additional
floorspace
12 800 67
Gen
eral
off
ice 640
St. Aldate's /
Queen Street
1 1 4000 sqm
(B1)
West End
AAP
3200
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 267 Brownfield site:
New re-
development to
include some
offices (B1a)
12 4000 333
Gen
eral
off
ice 3200
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
100
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Telephone
Exchange
0.4 0.4 1600 sqm
(B1)
West End
AAP
1280
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 107 Brownfield site:
New
development to
include some
offices (B1a).
New additional
floorspace
12 1600 133
Gen
eral
off
ice 1280
Police Station,
St. Aldates
0.41 0.41 1640 sqm
(B1)
West End
AAP
1312
0 0 Brownfield site:
New
development to
include some
offices (B1a)
0 1640
1312
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
101
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Fire Station,
Rewley Rd
0.47 0.15 600 sqm (B1) West End
AAP
480
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 40 Brownfield site:
new development
to include minor
element of
offices, new
additional
employment
floorspace
12 600 50
Gen
eral
off
ice 480
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
102
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Oxford and
Cherwell
Valley College
3.14 0.6 2400 sqm
(B1)
West End
AAP
1920
Gen
eral
off
ice 12 160 Brownfield site:
Residential-led
development
with new
employment
office use B1;
new floorspace
12 2400 200
Gen
eral
off
ice 1920
Warneford
Hospital
8.67 3 12000 sqm
(B1)
Sites and
Housing
DPD
(SP59)
9600
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 300 Brownfield site:
redevelopment of
existing buildings
to include
research (B1b)
32 12000 375
Scie
nce
Par
k
9600
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
103
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Land
Clarendon
Laboratory
0.29 0.29 5665 sqm
(B1)
Outstandin
g planning
permission
4532
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 142 Brownfield site:
Redevelopment
of existing
buildings,
additional
floorspace refers
to net amount.
10/03207/FUL
32 5665 177
Scie
nce
Par
k
4532
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
104
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employme
nt (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of
Allocation
Net Floor
space
(total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job
conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on
HCA
guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
HCA
employ-
ment
density
Floor-
space
Potential
Jobs Ty
pe
Floor-
space NIA
(assume
a 20%
reduc-
tion)
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford City
Land adjacent
to Dyson
Perrins
laboratory
1.03 1.03 12450 sqm
(B1)
Outstandin
g planning
permission
9960
Scie
nce
Par
k
32 311 Brownfield site:
Redevelopment
of existing
buildings,
additional
floorspace refers
to net amount.
10/03254/FUL
32 12450 389
Scie
nce
Par
k
9960
TOTAL 207.9
9
68.04 363920 294,736
18,487
368420 23,109
294736
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
105
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
106
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employmen
t (if a mixed
use site)
(ha)
Total
number of
jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of Allocation
Net Floor
space (total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job conversion
rates
(employment
Densities) based
on HCA guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
The additional sites below do not include a 'net growth' in floorspace
Elsfield
Hall,
Elsfield
Way
0.76 0.38 1040 sqm
(B1)
Sites and Housing DPD
(SP16)
Brownfield
site:
redevelop
ment of
existing
site but
level of
employme
nt to be
retained
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
107
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employmen
t (if a mixed
use site)
(ha)
Total
number of
jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of Allocation
Net Floor
space (total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%)
if given in ELR or
Local Plan
Job conversion
rates
(employment
Densities) based
on HCA guidance
paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford
City
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
108
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employment
(if a mixed
use site)
(ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of Allocation
Net Floor
space (total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if
given in ELR or Local
Plan
Job conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on HCA
guidance paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford
City
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
109
Osney
Mead
The estate comprises
some 18.3 hectares,
and in 2006 when the
Employment Land
Study for Oxford was
undertaken it was
estimated that there
was in the region of
51,600 sqm of
principally Class B
floorspace on the
estate. This includes a
mix of general
industrial,
warehousing and some
office units. There is a
very real prospect that
during the forecasting
period the site would
be more actively used
by the University and
will create new jobs,
which could include a
mix of research and
development, office
7740 Assume
some
redevelop-
ment and a
net increase
of 15%
General
office
12 645 Osney Mead is an older
industrial estate that over
recent years has been under-
utilised. The only significant
new development has been
for Newsquest who have
redeveloped their site for a
larger printing / publishing
building to produce and
prepare their newspapers
(Oxford Times and Oxford
Mail). The rest of the estate
whilst experiencing some
new development has in the
main been rather run-down
and in need of revitalisation
and presents a real
opportunity for
modernisation and an
intensification of uses and
development on the site. The
University have been
purchasing individual sites on
the estate as they have come
on the market and are now a
key landowner.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
110
and educational
activities.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
111
Westgate 54500 A1 High
Street
Retail
19 2,868 The outline planning
application for the
redevelopment of the
Westgate Shopping Centre
has just been submitted. The
attachment sets out the
expected ‘net’ increase in new
additional floorspace which
has increased from the
previous permission but as
you will see has figures for
the minimum and maximum
amount of new retail
accommodation, ranging
from 54,500 sqm to 81,900
sqm. It also sets out figures
for associated services which
include Class A2-A5 uses,
which again ranges from
6,200 sqm to 27,000 sqm new
additional floorspace. The
cinema will have a new
additional floorspace of some
5,990 sqm.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
112
Science
Area
The Master-plan for
the Science Area
doesn’t appear to
include any detailed
figures as such
however it does
suggest that the mix of
accommodation /
floorspace on site will
comprise 40%
laboratory floorspace,
40% offices and 20%
ancillary / other
floorspace. The site
area is approximately
30 acres.
96000 Science
Park
32 3,000 In discussions with the
Development Management
Case Officer for the site his
view is that the University
does not know entirely what
the future floorspace will be
other than it would increase
considerably over the years
ahead as older buildings are
replaced with new ones on 4
or 5 levels plus basements, eg
recent permissions for
Biochemistry, Earth Sciences,
New Chemistry, Physics etc.
This is evident by the work
that has already taken place
which has comprised the
demolition of existing older
buildings usually about 3
floors and their replacement
with these new buildings of 4
to 5 levels plus basements.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
113
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employment
(if a mixed
use site)
(ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of Allocation
Net Floor
space (total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if
given in ELR or Local
Plan
Job conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on HCA
guidance paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford
City
Former
Radcliffe
Infirmary
site
The Masterplan for the
infirmary site in 2008
it says that it could
accommodate up to
122,500 sq m of gross
external floorspace. As
part of the
development it does
include a small
proportion of the site
for the Jericho Health
98000
Science
park
32 3,063
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
114
Site Name
Total
site
size
(ha)
Total land
for
employment
(if a mixed
use site)
(ha)
Total
number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Cor
e Strategy
Total
employment
floorspace
attributed in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Status of Allocation
Net Floor
space (total
floorspace
less 20%)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if
given in ELR or Local
Plan
Job conversion
rates
(employment
Densities)
based on HCA
guidance paper
Potential
Jobs on
site
Comments
B1
B2
B8
Oth
er
Oxford
City
Centre and for student
accommodation for
Somerville – both
constructed. The
majority however is
clearly intended for
educational use.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
115
Table K.3: Employment sites and jobs in South Oxfordshire
Site Name Total site
size (ha)
Total land
for
employm
ent (if a
mixed use
site) (ha)
Total
number of
jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Jobs by Use Class (%) if
given in ELR or Local Plan Comments
B1 B2 B8 Other
South Oxfordshire (2006-2026/27)
Culham Science Centre 5.3 1,000 Culham Science Centre has 2,000 jobs currently and could accommodate
another 1,000. Beyond that there is access constraints which are extremely
difficult to overcome (new Thames crossing required). As JET is moving to
France, could free up space and allow for jobs growth to replace existing.
The adopted plan identifies 6.5 ha of the employment land (and 500 jobs) to
be accommodated in the EZ in VoWH District which is regarded as part of S
Oxon's allocation.
Employment land at Thame could amount to 11ha as two existing firms
may move locally but from outside Sth Oxon district in to Thame.
Part of the employment land at Wallingford is under pressure for
alternative use as a supermarket.
The remaining sites relate to completion or redevelopment of existing sites.
Howbery Park is Environment Agency, part of the Wallingford research
Employment land at Thame (TBC) 2
3,500
Employment land at Wallingford (TBC) 2
Employment land at larger villages (TBC) 4.2
Southmead Industrial Estate, Didcot (existing
site) 2.9
Hithercroft Industrial Estate (existing site) 3.12
Howbery Park (existing site) 2.4 100
Siarey's Timber Yard, Chinnor (existing site) 1.05
Chinnor Cement Works (existing site) 1
Watlington Industrial Estate (existing site) 3
Employment land at Didcot
/ VoWH 6.5 500
33.47 5,000
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
116
facility, which is expected to be developed for related commercial research
Pages 17-21 of the ELR update1 provide employment densities and plot
ratios used in the evidence base.
The ELR estimates includes an additional 50% of floorspace to allow for
market churn and choice (p.23).
In addition to employment on B use land, the adopted plan has identified a
need for 32,800 sqm (gross) (of which 26,600sqm will be at Didcot) of retail
and leisure floorspace (A1 - A5) between 2007 and 2016. The retail and
leisure needs forecast figures beyond 2016 were acknowledged to be less
reliable and need to be reviewed. No breakdown is given by B use type as
the employment allocations have been increased beyond those
recommended in the ELR breakdown. A breakdown is available for the 18.1
ha recommended in the ELR on page 23 of the ELR 2008 update.
1 Revisiting South Oxfordshire’s Employment Land Projections 2008
http://www.southoxon.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Employment%20Land%20Review%20Update%202008.pdf
South Oxfordshire Employment Land Review 2007
http://www.southoxon.gov.uk/services-and-advice/planning-and-building/planning-policy/evidence-studies/employment-land-review
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
117
Table K.4: Employment sites and jobs in Vale of White Horse
Site Name
Total
employment
site size (ha),
net of any
existing on site
Net
additional
jobs in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Jobs/floorspace
density
Total employment
floorspace (sqm)
attributed in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Percentage of land in each Use
Class
B1 B2 B8 Other
Vale of White Horse (2012-2029)
C16 Harwell
Campus 85 5400 (8400
gross)
24 200,000
100
EZ will not be completed by 2016 as originally proposed but is
very likely to be completed by 2031 - there are no
infrastructure constraints to development, the owner
developers are committed and have the capacity to complete,
and both schemes are likely to be attractive to end users.
Current supply comprises completions of existing schemes -
no reason to suppose these will not be completed within the
plan period.
Future supply comprises three sites: Didcot A is surplus to
requirements and is subject to remediation which will take
three years, following which it should be available for
development. Total site likely to be a mix of housing and
employment, with current estimate of 29ha for employment,
although conceivably a higher proportion could go for housing.
N Power want the site used for B8, VoWH want a mixed use
C14 Milton Park 28 24 100
EZ total 113
C1 Abingdon
Business Park at
Wyndyke Furlong 0.67
5,940
70
416,000
100
C2 Abingdon
Science Park at
Barton Lane 0.74
100
C9f Faringdon –
land adj to A420 –
“4&20” site 4.2
33 33 34
C8 Cumnor Hill 0.3 100
C20 Wootton
Business Park 1.48
100
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
118
Site Name
Total
employment
site size (ha),
net of any
existing on site
Net
additional
jobs in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Jobs/floorspace
density
Total employment
floorspace (sqm)
attributed in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Percentage of land in each Use
Class
B1 B2 B8 Other
Vale of White Horse (2012-2029)
C10 Grove
Technology Park 5.4
50 50
employment scheme. Has existing access and owner which
wants reuse to go ahead. Railhead on site could support B8/B2
use. North Grove Monks Farm adjoins Williams and would
accommodate an extension. This seems likely as Williams is
diversifying into related product areas.
Retail - new retail development at Abingdon, Botley,
Faringdon, etc, all likely to come forward. Net additional
floorspace of 22,940 sqm: 1,500 jobs is a bit high by standard
floorspace assumptions but not excessive.
Potential uplift - based on assumed uplift from City Deal, etc.
Pipeline schemes seem likely to exceed uplift job estimate of
1,500: planning application at former Esso Research Centre at
Milton Hill for 11,070sqm of B8 and 1,250 jobs; pre application
discussion on land west of Didcot Power station, 104,000sqm of
B8 and 2,100 jobs; pre-app discussion at Hill Farm Appleford
C9b Faringdon –
HCA business
centre 0.18
100
Total current
supply 12.97
C29 Didcot A 29 59 7 34
C32 North Grove
Monks Farm 6
67 17 16
C33 Faringdon
South Park Road
3 33 67
Total future
supply
38
Total supply 163.97 38 35 14
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
119
Site Name
Total
employment
site size (ha),
net of any
existing on site
Net
additional
jobs in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Jobs/floorspace
density
Total employment
floorspace (sqm)
attributed in Local
Plan/Core
Strategy (if
applicable)
Percentage of land in each Use
Class
B1 B2 B8 Other
Vale of White Horse (2012-2029)
Other - potential
uplift
n/a 1,500 n/a for 59,000sqm of B8. There is evidence of demand from the
likes of Amazon and Tesco for large scale B8 at Didcot. Total
jobs from these schemes in pipeline could be 4,500. There is
also scope for substantial additional development at Harwell -
at least 20ha should be available for development in the short
term over and above the EZ area, and more long term.
Other - retail
schemes
n/a 1,500 n/a
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
120
Table K.5: Employment sites and jobs in West Oxfordshire
Site Name Total site
size (ha)
Total land for
employment (if
a mixed use site)
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Total employment
floorspace
attributed in Local
Plan/Core Strategy
(if applicable)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if given in
ELR or Local Plan Comments
B1 B2 B8 Other
West Oxfordshire 2011-2029
West Witney Strategic Development
Area (SDA)
10
1,500
No more
than
25% B8
West Witney SDA is part of urban extension.
Site is well located and has planning
permission S106.
West Witney Existing Commitments
10
3,500
West Witney existing commitments are
largely undeveloped land within the existing
business area. They are in multiple
ownerships and depend on willingness of
existing owners to sell or develop.
Carterton (West Oxfordshire
Business Park and Land at Ventura
Park)
5
Carterton - strong interest from potential
major end user is likely to lead to
development in near future. If housing goes
ahead at East Carterton there may be an
additional 2ha of employment land made
available. The lack of high speed broadband
needs to be addressed to make the site more
attractive.
Chipping Norton (former Highways
Depot, former Parker Knoll Factory
site, land north of London Road) 5
Chipping Norton - former industrial sites,
owners want to sell for higher value uses.
Part likely to go for supermarket, then
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
121
Site Name Total site
size (ha)
Total land for
employment (if
a mixed use site)
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Total employment
floorspace
attributed in Local
Plan/Core Strategy
(if applicable)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if given in
ELR or Local Plan Comments
B1 B2 B8 Other
West Oxfordshire 2011-2029
remainder more likely to be developed for B
uses.
Other Towns, Villages and Rural
Areas (including Lakeside,
Standlake)
5
Other towns and villages - there are some
strong firms in West Oxon rural areas looking
to expand, therefore available sites in villages
are likely to be taken up over time.
Other small scale schemes and
business extensions (not allocated)
25 1,500 Past monitoring data indicates that about
25% of employment floorspace has come
forward on unallocated sites. Assuming this is
to continue, this has the potential to generate
around 1,500 additional jobs over the Local
Plan period.
Total 60 6,500 Assumptions - 1 job per 20sqm of office
floorspace (B1a and B1b use classes), 1 job
per 30sqm of industrial floorspace (B1c and
B2 use classes, also applied where use class
not specified) and 1 job per of 40sqm (B8 use
class). Average plot density of 0.41 assumed
such that 1ha yields 4,100sqm of floorspace.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
122
Site Name Total site
size (ha)
Total land for
employment (if
a mixed use site)
(ha)
Total number
of jobs in
Local
Plan/Core
Strategy
Total employment
floorspace
attributed in Local
Plan/Core Strategy
(if applicable)
Jobs by Use Class (%) if given in
ELR or Local Plan Comments
B1 B2 B8 Other
West Oxfordshire 2011-2029
Note: the total number of jobs
excludes retail, tourism, education
and health and RAF Brize Norton
which could generate an additional
3,500 jobs i.e. 10,000 in total.
Assumptions are: 500 additional jobs in
tourism, which looks reasonable given
attractions of cotswolds; retail/town centre
growth possible though may be questionable.
RAF Brize Norton - privatisation of support
services means that RAF jobs are likely to be
replaced by private sector jobs over time -
little net employment increase in total.
Economic Forecasting for Oxfordshire
123