economic outlook orlando, fl january 11 th, 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Economic Outlook
Orlando, FL
January 11th, 2011
U.S. Forecast Are we past the gravy boat and
getting into the meat and potatoes of this recovery?
The recovery appears to be gaining momentum
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Stimulus QEII Extension Bush Tax Cuts, new payroll
tax cuts and investment stimulus
U.S. Forecast Tectonic Forces Impacting
Consumers:
Pent-up Demand, Rising Incomes
An upward force on consumer spending
Lost Wealth, Labor Market
Downward force on spending
U.S. Household Wealth(Trillions of $)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Q1
2010 Q3
Total Assets 71.6 77.6 78.6 65.8 63.1 68.8
Financial Assets 43.3 48.1 50.6 41.4 39.9 45.7
Net Worth 59.5 64.1 64.2 51.5 48.9 54.9
Home Equity 13.2 12.8 10.3 6.9 6.0 6.4
U.S. Economic Outlook
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
GDP% Change, Annual Rate 2.6 3.1 3.4 3.0 2.5 3.1
Consumer Price Index% Change, Annual Rate 1.5 2.8 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.9
Consumer Sentiment68.3
71.3 74.7 75.8 77.2 78.9
Consumption% Change, Annual Rate 2.4 4.2 3.4 1.1 3.0 2.6
1312111009080706050403020100999897
140.0
135.0
130.0
125.0
120.0
Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment(Millions)
Total Nonfarm Employment
U.S. Forecast
1312111009080706050403020100999897
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Civilian Unemployment Rate(%)
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Forecast
A look at the Florida housing data:
November 2010 Snapshot
Realtor Sales Median Sales Price
Region or MSANovember
2010November
2009%Chg
November2010
November2009
%Chg
STATEWIDE 11,900 13,961 -15 $132,700 $139,300 -5
Orlando 1,867 2,292 -19 $127,300 $137,100 -7
Miami 679 455 49 $171,500 $184,800 -7
Pensacola 263 330 -20 $134,200 $150,500 -11
Jacksonville912 1,101 -17 $144,700 $151,600 -5
Tampa-St. Petersburg 2,060 2,282 -10 $125,000 $139,100 -10
Florida Sales Report – November 2010Single-Family, Existing Homes
A look at the housing data:
January 1994–November 2010
Florida Forecast In 2010 the recovery began, we finished
some repairs, loaded up and pushed back from the gate and slowly taxied to the runway
2011 is our runway We are cleared for takeoff As year progresses we will pickup speed
Job growth doesn’t takeoff until 2012 and 2013
Turbulence Demographics hinder recovery Housing market woes weigh Budget shortfalls: State & local government
13121110090807060504030201009998
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
Florida Real Gross State Product(% change year ago)
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast
13121110090807060504030201009998
300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
Florida Housing Starts(thousands)
Total Private Housing Starts30 year Mortgage Rates
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate(%)
FL Unemployment RateU.S. Unemployment Rate
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast
13121110090807060504030201009998
8500.0
8000.0
7500.0
7000.0
6500.0
6000.0
Florida Employment(Thousands)
Wage & Salary Employment
Florida Economic Outlook IEC 4th Quarter 2010 Forecast
RegionPopulation Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida 0.9 ---
Deltona 0.1 8
Gainesville 0.3 7
Jacksonville 1.0 4
Lakeland 1.3 2
Miami 0.8 5
Naples 1.1 3
Ocala 1.8 1
Orlando 1.3 2
Palm Bay 0.5 6
Pensacola 0.5 6
Tallahassee 0.3 7
Tampa 0.8 5
2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast
RegionEmployment Growth
Average % Chg Rank
Florida 2.2 ---Deltona 1.3 6
Gainesville 1.0 7Jacksonville 2.1 3
Lakeland 1.4 5Miami 1.7 4Naples 2.2 2Ocala 1.4 5
Orlando 2.5 1Palm Bay 0.3 8Pensacola 1.4 5
Tallahassee 1.0 7Tampa 2.2 2
2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast
13121110090807060504030201009998
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate(percent)
FL Unemployment RateOrlando Unemployment Rate
Orlando Metro Forecast
13121110090807060504030201009998
1150.0
1100.0
1050.0
1000.0
950.0
900.0
850.0
800.0
Orlando Payroll Employment(Thousands)
Orlando Metro Forecast
2010-2013 Averages;Q4 2010 Forecast
ORLANDO
Sector% Average Annual
Growth
Professional & Business Services 7.6Education-Health Services 3.0Leisure & Hospitality 1.9Manufacturing 1.5Other Services 1.4Trade, Transportation & Utilities 1.1Construction & Mining 1.1Financial 0.7Information 0.6State & Local Government 0.4Federal Government -0.5
Sean M. SnaithSean M. Snaith, Ph.D.
Director Director
Institute for Economic CompetitivenessInstitute for Economic Competitiveness
(407) 823-1453(407) 823-1453
[email protected]@SeanSnaith.com
WWW.IEC.UCF.EDUWWW.IEC.UCF.EDU
Thank you