economics 113 slides - brad delong's grasping …2017/01/30 · 1700 atlantic trade: in...
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Economics 113 Slides
J. Bradford Delong http://bradford-delong.com [email protected]
@delong
2017-01-30
key: https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0CDQiI21n5A2CJ4ecF16hzdJw#2017-01-30_Econ_113_Slides
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Outline…• AtlanticTrade• Administrivia…• BritishColonialSettlement(andDutch)• Review:BigIdeas• TowardRevolution
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iClickers:Supply,Demand,andSurplusinAtlanticTradein1700
AWesternEuropeanpopulationof80millionproducing$3/dayandanAmericaspopulationof12millionproducing$5/dayin1700.Atlantictrade2.5%ofWesternEuropeanGDP—$0.075/person/dayx80Mpeople=$6M/day• AmericasproduceNewWorldcrops—tobacco,(transplanted)sugar,(transplanted)coffee,chocolate,rum,high-qualitytimber,tobacco,indigo,silver(soldtoChinafortea),rubber,etc…
• WhichEuropecannot—Europetradesmanufacturesforthem…
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:Equilibrium
Price:• Per$1of“value”inEuropeinequilibrium
Quantity:• $2B/year
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:SupplyofNewWorldCrops
Supply:• Epidemicsandconquesthaveleftlotsoffreeland
• SimplysailtoAfricaandgrabsomeslaves—tradinggunstolocalpotentatesforthem
• MovethemtotheAmericas(orenserfAmerindians)andsetthemtowork
• Inthelongrun,constantreturnstoscaleaslongasthefreelandholdsout…
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:SupplyCurve
Supply:• Elastic(long-run)supplyofNewWorldproducts
• Butwhataboutdemand?
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:DemandCurve
Supply:P=1Demand• Backin1500,averyhealthydemandfor“spicesandsilks”at5x1700’srealprice
• P=5-2Q
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:Equilibrium
S:P=1D:P=5-2QWhat’sourequilibriumprice&quantity?A. P*=3,Q*=2B/yrB. P*=1,Q*=2B/yrC. P*=5,Q*=2B/yrD. noneoftheaboveE. cannotbe
determinedfrominformationgiven
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:What’stheProducerSurplus?
E:P*=1,Q*=2B/yrS:P=1D:P=5-2Q
A. $8B/yrB. $4B/yrC. $0D. cannotbedeterminedwith
informationgivenE. noneoftheabove
Remember:• D:P=Pd0-dxQ• S:P=Ps0+sxQ• P*=Ps0(d/(s+d))+Pd0(s/(s+d))
• Q*=(Pd0-Ps0)/(s+d)• TS=(Pd0-Ps0)
2/(2(s+d))
• CS=(d/(s+d))TS• PS=(s/(s+d))TS
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:What’stheConsumerSurplus?
E:P*=1,Q*=2B/yrS:P=1D:P=5-2Q
A. $8B/yrB. $4B/yrC. $0D. cannotbedeterminedwith
informationgivenE. noneoftheabove
Remember:• D:P=Pd0-dxQ• S:P=Ps0+sxQ• P*=Ps0(d/(s+d))+Pd0(s/(s+d))• Q*=(Pd0-Ps0)/(s+d)• TS=(Pd0-Ps0)
2/(2(s+d))• CS=(d/(s+d))TS• PS=(s/(s+d))TS
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iClickers:1700AtlanticTrade:IsThisaCompleteWelfareAccounting?
E:P*=1,Q*=2B/yrS:P=1D:P=5-2QCS:$4B/yrPS:$0
A. YesB. noC. maybeD. cannotbedeterminedwith
informationgivenE. noneoftheabove
Remember:• D:P=Pd0-dxQ• S:P=Ps0+sxQ• P*=Ps0(d/(s+d))+Pd0(s/(s+d))• Q*=(Pd0-Ps0)/(s+d)• TS=(Pd0-Ps0)2/(2(s+d))• CS=(d/(s+d))TS• PS=(s/(s+d))TS
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1700AtlanticTrade:InPerspectiveW.Europe:80Mpeople,$80B/yrGDPAmericas:12Mpeople,$20B/yrGDPAtlantictrade:$2B/yr
• Butthat$2B/yrisproviding$6B/yrinvaluetoEuropeanconsumers—$4B/yrinsurplus
• 7.5%ofvalue—important,butnotdecisive• Buthalfofthatgoes(orisabouttogo)toBritain—with13Mpeople.Nowwearemorethan20%
• AndallofthatgoestothetophalfoftheBritishpopulation:a30%boosttoresources
• Plus:inequalityandexploitationintheAmericas
• Plus:what’sgoingoninAfrica?
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CatchOurBreath…• Comments? • Questions?
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British Settlement (and Dutch)• Toofarsouthtohavegoodfurs• Thusnothinggreattotradefor/with
• Toofarnorthtoraisestapleplantationcrops• Exceptfortobacco• Whichkillsyoursoilstonedeadinaremarkablyshorttime
• Nogoldorsilver—andfewAmerindians• Algonquin:24Kin1607—>2Kin1669
• Wampanoag:12Kin1607—>400in1676
• Settlement…
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Administrivia…• bCourses• bCoursesunacceptablebecauseitdoesnotindicateitsstate• Youcanbeloggedoutwithnosign…
• Inwhichcaseyouloseallyourworkifyoutrytosaveit…
• Wewillkeepitfor:• Assignmentturn-in• iClickergradingintegration• Messages• Homepage
• Ifthosecanbemadetowork• Otherwise,movingthingsbacktomyownwebsite…
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Administrivia: Time…• Tenhours/week• Threeinlecture• Oneinsession• Sixoutside
• Reading• Reviewing• Exercising
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Administrivia: Lectures…• Mixof
• Exercises• Review• Lecturesproper• Background
• Lectureslides• Lecturenotes—whentheyarereadyenoughtobeuseful(theymaynotbeuntilthenexttimeIteachthis)
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Administrivia: Outside Class…• Readings
• Readingnotes• Review!
• Structuredrepetitionandreview…
• Exercises• Mapexerciseouttomorrow…
• SamplemidtermoutonFriday…
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Administrivia: Cognitive Science
• Isthehomepageuseful?• Buildinganintellectualweb• Thingsyoucanuse• Thingsyouknow• Thingsyoucanremember
• Thingsyoucanrefresh• Thingsyouknowwheretolookup
• Thingsyoudonotunderstand
• Thingsyoucannotfind…
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AnInvestment• Thisisaninvestmentbythehumanrace• Thevaluetousofyourgettingaliberaleducation
• ThisisaninvestmentbythestateofCalifornia• Thevaluetousofyourgettingaliberaleducation
• Thisisaninvestmentbyyouinyou• Expectedbenefits• Surprisebenefits• A“liberaleducation”• Thevaluetoyou(andus)ofa“liberaleducation”
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ALiberalEducationaValuableThing• Ata$40,000/yearaverageearningslevel…
• 82.2%x$40,000/year=$32,884/year
• Gotocollege:invest$15K/yr(tuitionandfees)+$20K/yr(earningsnotmade)for5years=$175,000
• Getanextra$32,884/yearfor40yearsifyou’rethekindofpersonwhocangraduate
• Plus:freedom,depthofexperience…
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CatchOurBreath…• Comments? • Questions?
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Settler Population of British North American Colonies
• 1610:350• 1650:50,000• 1700:250,000• 1750:1,170,000• 1780:2,780,000• 1810:7,240,000• 1840:17,000,000• 1860:31,000,000• Union:22million(21millionfreewhite;0.4millionfreeblack;0.4millionslave)
• Confederacy:9million(5millionfreewhite;0.1millionfreeblack;3.9millionslave)
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Three Important Strains• “Virginia”—tidewaterpluspiedmont
• “Kentucky”• “NewEngland”—Puritan,followedbycommercial
• Twomore:• Slavesociety:GeorgiaandCarolina,plusCaribbeanslavecolonies
• Middlecolonies:Maryland,Pennsylvania,NewJersey,andNewAmsterdam(York)
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Immigration: Virginia• Aquarterofwhitepopulation“free”
• Threequartersindentured• Buthowdoyouholdontotheindentured?
• Ferociousmortality:1620-40VApopulation7K—>14Kwith25Kindenturedservants
• Slaves:300in1650—>13000in1700—>150000(40%)by1750
• WhatdidVAexport?Tobacco(andcorn)
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Settlement: New England• Buildingautopia…• Godlyandprosperous…• Timber,fish,shipbuilding,shipping…• InreturnforBritishmanufacturedgoods…
• AndCaribbeanandothercolonialstaples…
• 20,000migrantsby1640—thereafternaturalincrease
• Notyoung,unskilledyoungmenonthemake…
• Notindenturedservants…• Healthierandclosertogenderbalanced…
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CatchOurBreath…• Comments? • Questions?
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Big Ideas• Structuredrepetition• Allofourbigideasliveinthefuturestill,exceptfortwo
• Whichbigideashavewebrushedsofar?A. AmericannationalismandAmerican
exceptionalismB. AmericanexceptionalismandAmericanslaveryC. ThetyrannyofgeographyandAmerican
nationalismD. SocialdemocracyandGildedAgesE. Noneoftheabove
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BIG IDEAS• Which of these do you think will turn out to be most important in this
course? A. Narrative: We are animals that live by it—hence by studying
history… B. American nationalism: There are three:
A. The City Upon a Hill: “Let it be as it was in New-England…” A. A place where we can live freely… B. “But here was Old Kentucky!”
C. American exceptionalism: The American project has been astonishingly successful—in Trotsky’s words: “the furnace where the future is being forged…”
D. American slavery: But the American project has been much worse than shadowed by plantation slavery and its echoes down the centuries…
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BIG IDEAS II• Which of these do you think will be most important? A. Immigration: One big contributor to the success of the
American project has been immigration… B. Liberty: American society has generated a large—in
comparative context—but unevenly distributed quantum of liberty…
C. Opportunity: American society used to deliver an unusually large quantum of opportunity—but not any more…
D. Prosperity: American society has delivered an unprecedented and unequalled quantum of prosperity
E. Public Interest: Growth: The story of industrialization requires focusing on growth-oriented industrial policy…
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BIG IDEAS III• Which of these do you think will be most important?
A. Public Interest: Distribution: The story of industrialization requires focusing on societal well being-oriented industrial policy
B. Gilded Ages: The story of opportunity and prosperity is the story of our two Gilded Ages: their rise, fall, and rise
C. Social Democracy: The apogee of American success is the mid twentieth century era of social democracy
D. Structural Transition: Society has moved from agriculture to industry to post-industrial services, and is now moving on to ?…
E. The Tyranny of Geography: Much of what has gone wrong with America can be traced to regional geography—and to the cultures that entrenched themselves in that geography…
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CatchOurBreath…• Comments? • Questions?
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TowardRevolution• TheconquestofNewFrance• NewOrleans(1718-64French;1764-1803Spanish;1803French)
• RoyalProclamationof1763
• “NavigationActs”• Taxation?Representation?Quartering?Royalgovernors?
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ThomasJefferson’sView• ThefamilypsychodramaofThomasJefferson
• “Whydoweheartheloudestyelpsforlibertyfromthemastersofnegroes?”
• VirtuousRomanfarmers• ThecorruptionandfalloftheRomanRepublic• Britain’sAugustanAge
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BenefitsofRevolution?• Torevolutionaries—youngmenonthemake…
• Tosupportersofrevolution…• Coststosupporters…• Coststoothers…
• Tories…• Amerindians…• Slaves…
• Howcanwedrawaplusoutofthis?• EffectsofAmericanRevolutiononEuropeanpoliticaldevelopment…
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ArtemasWard• Seriousrabble-rouser• MilitaryexperienceintheFrenchandIndianWar
• Organizerofthearmy• DecisiontofortifyBunkerHill• BattleofBunkerHillJune17,1775• GeorgeWashingtonarrivesJuly3,1775
• GeorgeWashingtonlosestheentirearmyinNewYork• August-December1776:BattleofLongIsland,captureofFortWashington:from24Kdownto2Kinthemainfieldarmy
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CatchOurBreath…• Comments? • Questions?