ECOOP WP11

ENSEMBLE AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE FORECASTING

(TO UPGRADE EXISTING REGIONAL AND COASTAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS)

MOTIVATION• THE PREDICTABILITY LIMIT OF OCEAN WEATHER

AND SEA LEVEL IS SHORT– LIMITS FOR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ARE SET BY

• 1) ATMOSPHERIC FORCING INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim.)• 2) INITIAL/LATERAL B. C. INACCURACY (intrinsic pred. lim)• 3) MODEL INAPPROPRIATE REPRESENTATION OF PHYSICAL

PROCESSES (uncertainity of dyn. eq.)

• GIVE THE CORRECT INFORMATION TO USERS WITH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF FORECAST (‘ERROR BARS’)

• ADVANCE THE UNDERSTANDING OF CAUSES OF ERRORS IN THE REGIONAL/COASTAL FORECAST SYSTEMS

PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE

• METEOROLOGY– Ensemble methods for global ten days

forecasts is now done routinely– Meteo LAM ensemble forecasts are also done

routinely by some services around Europe– Ensemble forecasts are done for seasonal

forecasts (El Nino)– Multi-model ensemble forecast shown to be

better for extended range forecast

Ensemble forecasting for El Nino: changes in the initial SST of forecast

1996-19971996-1997El Nino eventEl Nino event

DEMETER results: multi-model estimation

Precipitation Precipitation AnomalyAnomalyCorrelationCorrelationin the tropicsin the tropicsand for JJAand for JJA

Red is ensembleRed is ensemblemean of different mean of different modelsmodels

WP11 Targeted products and services

• Targeted ECOOP PRODUCTS improvement– Currents, temperature, salinity forecasts IN

DEMONSTRATION AREAS– Sea level forecasts (storm surge) IN DEMONSTRATION

AREAS– Biochemical state variables ??

• Targeted ECOOP SERVICES that will be impacted– Storm surge – Oıl spıll– Search and rescue– Coastal protectıon– Oxygen depletıon ???– HABs ???

What is a ‘demonstration area’?

• It is a geographical area with an existing forecasting system for the given ECOOP basic products where we would like to develop the ensemble forecasting methods

• Where to show the benefit for one of the many impacted services

• Where to show the functioning of the upgraded system for a Target Demonstration Period-TDP to show pre-operationality

WP11 Specific Objectives• Develop and implement new technologies

for ensemble forecasts for currents and storm surges

• Develop and implement methodologies for multi-model ensemble forecasting (super-ensemble)

• Develop these technologies/methodologies so as to cast uncertainties in probabilistic terms for services

WP11 tasks• Task 11.1 Ensemble experiments

– Subtask 11.1.1 Med Sea currents– Subtask 11.1.2 N-W shelf storm surge– Subtask 11.1.3 ????biochemistry???– This task will develop and implement real time 3-10 days

ensemble forecasting methods/technology by perturbing atmospheric forcing and initial/lateral boundary conditions and will evaluate the quality of ECOOP products

• Task 11.2 Super-ensemble experiments– Subtask 11.2.1 Med area currents– Subtask 11.2.2 ????– This task will develop the super-ensemble methods to meld

information from overlapping existing forecasting systems to create a multi-model estimate and will evaluate the quality of the resulting ECOOP products

WP11 Tasks (cont.)• Task 11.3 TDP exercise

– This task will show for six months the production of super-ensemble and ensemble forecasts in the demonstration areas and will evaluate the quality of the products internally (scientific validation)

• Task 11.4 Impact of ensemble forecasts on services– This task will connect the TDP exercise products with final services

for• Oıl spıll• Oxygen depletıon ???• HABs ????• Coastal protectıon • Search and rescue

In order to show benefit of ensemble methodology in regional/coastal forecasting (end-user evaluation)

• Task 11.5 Presentation of ensemble forecast on ECOOP portal – This task will develop the relevant probability maps for the ECOOP

products to be presented in the ECOOP portal (WP5) with particular attention to give ‘correct’ information to end-users

WP11 Main deliverables

• Three-four regional/coastal operational systems for currents and storm surges upgraded to do ensemble and super-ensemble forecasts

• Probability characteristics of ECOOP products for several European areas

• Improved services for ECOOP

Comment: Physical data assimilation improvements?

• It is taken out of here because too limited (do not need everywhere ensemble to ameliorate data assimilation)

• But it should go somewhere together with the upgrade and implementation in existing systems of data assimilation systems