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Education Demographics
and Latinos
Mark Hugo Lopez
January 29, 2013
The Office of Diversity Initiatives Webinar
The College Board is a mission-driven organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. The organization promotes excellence and equity in America’s educational system through its programs and services in college readiness and college success, and through research and advocacy on behalf of students, educators and schools.
Changing U.S. Demographics
U.S. Population by Race & Nativity: 2010 Fastest Growth By Hispanics and Asians
Total U.S. Population — 309 million
Hispanic 50.5 million
16%
Black*38 million
12%
Asian* 14 million
5%
White* 197 million
64%
Source: 2010 U.S. Census.
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
68% 11%
13% 5%
Ages 25 or older Asian
Hispanic
Black
White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
57% 14%
20%
5%
Ages 18-24
68% 11%
13% 5%
Ages 25 or older Asian
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Black White White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
55%
14%
22%
4%
Ages 6-17 Asian
Hispanic
Black White
The New Face of America
Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey
51%
14%
25%
5%
Ages 0-5
55%
14%
22%
4%
Ages 6-17 Asian
Hispanic
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Black White White
87%
10% 11%12%
12%
13%
13%
14%
47%
85%
70%76%80%83%
67% 65% 60%56%
52%
11%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
5%9%
6%4%3%
14% 16% 19% 23% 26% 29%
9%8%7%6%5%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
White* Black* Hispanic Asian*
Hispanic Share Doubles to 29% by 2050— Asian Share also Doubles
Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.
Percent of Total Population
U.S. Hispanic Population Four Decades of Growth
14.622.4
35.3
50.5
1980 1990 2000 2010
In millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
50.5
3522
154.0
57
128
105
01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Middle "Baseline" Immigration
Hispanic Growth Likely to Continue (Largest “Minority” Since ~2001)
Population in millions
Hispanic Immigrants Exceed Births from 1970;
Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.
3.1
5.67.0
4.4
8.1
3.1
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Hispanic Births (millions)Hispanic Immigrants (millions)% Foreign-Born for Hispanics
Hispanic Immigrants Exceed Births from 1970; Pattern Reverses in 2000s
Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.
3.1
9.0
5.67.37.0
4.4
8.1
3.1
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Hispanic Births (millions)Hispanic Immigrants (millions)% Foreign-Born for Hispanics
Hispanic Births Exceed Immigrants from 2000; Percent Foreign-Born Has PEAKED
Source: Pew Hispanic Center population estimates & projections (2008).
3.1
9.0
11.3
13.9
16.5
19.3
5.67.3
10.3
7.0
4.4
8.1 8.49.3
7.7
3.1
14%
18%
28%
35%
40%38%
36%
33%
40% 40%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
Hispanic Births (millions)Hispanic Immigrants (millions)% Foreign-Born for Hispanics
Hispanic Population is Younger
Native-Born Hispanics are Younger
Latino School Enrollments
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
Growing Hispanic Representation in Public Schools and Colleges
23.9
16.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Pre-K through 12th-grade public school enrollment, ages 3 and older
College enrollment, ages18-24
2011
%
Hispanic share of enrollment
HISPANICS IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS)
Racial and Ethnic Composition of Public Schools by Grade, 2011
53
46
51
52
55
24
26
26
25
21
15
18
13
14
16
8
10
10
9
8
White Hispanic Black Other
All
Nursery school
KindergartenElementary
school
High school
(%)
YOUNG HISPANIC COLLEGE STUDENTS
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
College Enrollment of 18- to 24-Year-Olds, 2010-2011
(in thousands)
2010 2011 Change Percentage
Change All 12,213 12,570 357 3%
Hispanic 1,814 2,079 265 15% White 7,663 7,882 219 3% Black 1,692 1,639 -53 -3% Asian 811 748 -63 -8%
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
Hispanics the Largest Minority at Four-year Colleges and Universities
(millions of 18- to 24-year-old students)
5.6 6.0
1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2010 2011
White Hispanic Black Asian
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
Hispanic High School Completion is at a Record Level
(% of 18- to 24-year-old Hispanics)
76.3
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011
%
Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of the October Current Population Survey (CPS)
Hispanic College Enrollment Rate is at a Record Level
(% of 18- to 24-year-old high school completers)
45
51 46
67
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
White
Black
Hispanic
%
Asian
Some of the College Enrollment Growth may Reflect the Depressed Youth Labor Market
Source: Richard Fry, Hispanic College Enrollment Spikes, Narrowing Gaps with Other Groups
67.8
62.8
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007
Great Recession begins
Great Recession ends
%
2011
20- to 24-year-old employment to population
WHAT IS AT STAKE?
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Condition of Education 2012
Educational Attainment of 25- to 29-year-olds, 2011
13
39
20
56
Hispanic NH White NH Black NH Asian
(% with bachelor’s degree or higher)
20072010
20132016
20192022
20252028
20312034
20372040
20432046
2049
total school-age popHispanic school-age pop
School-age Population (in millions)
54
73
11
28
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008
Hispanic Children Are Projected to be the Major Growing Group of Children
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, National Population Projections Released 2008
58%
38%
20%
39%
15% 11%
4% 6%
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
2031
2034
2037
2040
2043
2046
2049
% of School-age Population
NH white Hispanic NH black NH asian
Hispanics Projected to be the Largest School-age Population by 2050
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Characteristics by Race and Ethnicity, 2011 and A New Look at Long-term Labor Force Projections to 2050
Civilian Labor Force, 2011 and Projected 2050
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Total Hispanic NH White Black Asian
2011 2050 (in thousands)
40-year Work-life Earnings by Education for Hispanic Full-time, Full-year Workers
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Education and Synthetic Work-Life Earnings Estimates, September 2011
Male Female
9 - 12th grade 1.1 0.8
High School completer 1.3 1.0
Some college 1.7 1.3
Associate's degree 1.8 1.4
Bachelor's degree 2.1 1.7
Master's degree 2.8 2.3
Professional degree 3.1 2.3
Doctorate degree 3.1 2.6
In millions of $
Unauthorized Immigrant Childhood Arrivals
States with Largest Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
In thousands
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2011.
Estimated Population Range
U.S. Total 11,200 (10,700 - 11,700)
California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950) New York 625 (525 - 725)
New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500)
North Carolina 325 (240 - 425) Maryland 275 (200 - 325) Washington 230 (140 - 325) Virginia 210 (170 - 250)
1.5 1.0
2.1
4.5
2000 2005 2010
Children with at Least One Unauthorized Immigrant Parent
Population in millions
Source: Pew Hispanic Center, 2011
U.S.-born children
Unauthorized immigrant children
Unauthorized Immigrants Ages 30 and Under Eligible for DACA
Source: Pew Hispanic Center.
61% 55%
45%
39% Immediately
In the future
Potentially eligible Ineligible
2.7 million 1.7 million
950,000
770,000
Many Know Someone Who Has or Will Apply for DACA
Percent of Latinos saying…
Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos.
31
24 37
28 37
48
26
Nativity
Among the foreign born
All Latinos
Registered voters
Native born
Foreign born
U.S. citizen
Legal resident
Not a U.S. citizen or a legal resident
Obama’s Program for Unauthorized Immigrant Childhood Arrivals
Percent saying…
Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos.
33
9
13
5
12
63
89
85
93
86
Disapprove Approve
Hispanics by nativity
U.S.
Registered voters
Native born
Foreign born
General population
All Hispanics
Issue Priorities for Latinos in 2012 Percent of Latino registered voters saying “extremely important”
Source: 2012 National Survey of Latinos.
55
54
50
36
34
33
Education
Jobs and the economy
Health care
Federal budget deficit
Immigration
Taxes
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Tel: 202.419.3600 Fax: 202.419-3608
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