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Education Recasts the 21st Century:New Population Projections for the

World’s CountriesWilliam P. Butz

Senior Research Scholar IIASAPresentation at Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Course on Feeding the World SustainablyFebruary 24, 2015

Wolfgang Lutz

William P. Butz

Samir KC

Editors

Oxford University Press, 2014

Project Objectives

1. Meet the Keyfitz Challenge2. Incorporate education into population

projections3. Produce transparent methodology

and replicable outputs

The Keyfitz Challenge

“Forecasting is one of theoldest of demographicactivities, and yet it hasnever been fully inte-grated with the mainbody of demographic theoryand data.”

Nathan Keyfitz, 1994

Assessment of State of Knowledge

A comprehensive scientific assessment of thedrivers of fertility, mortality, migration and

educational attainment. Based on:

• Six state-of-the-art review chapters by 26 lead authors and 46 contributing authors

• Online questionnaire with more than 150 arguments assessed in peer-review manner

• Five meta-expert meetings on five continents to decide projection parameters

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Production of Projections

• Prepare baseline estimates• Construct multi-state model• Estimate projection parameters for “missing”

countries• Incorporate projection parameters• Calibrate, evaluate and adjust model• Describe data challenges and the projection

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Projection Outcomes

• Country and global projections tend to be below UN projections

• Most likely global population peak in early last half of the century

• Different education assumptions make a substantial difference in country and global projected population size by 2050

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The Education Difference

Assuming identical education-specific fertility and mortality trends, different education scenarios make a difference of more than 1 billion people by 2050.

• CEN (Constant Education Numbers) gives the world population trend according to the most pessimistic scenario assuming that no new schools will be built

• FT (Fast Track) gives the most optimistic scenario assuming that countries can achieve the rapid education expansion that Singapore and South Korea achieved

Why Does Education Matter?

• Education is an important source of population heterogeneity. More educated women generally have fewer children and lower child mortality.

• More educated adults are healthier and live longer.• Education is associated with individual

empowerment, public health, economic growth, and quality of institutions.

• Education appears related to democratization and adaptive capacity to climate change.

Are these Education Effects Causal?

•Signaling, selectivity, reverse causality? Or is education a cause?

•Evidence from the “green revolution”•Evidence from neurology and cognitive science:•building new synapses•changing risky behavior• learning from past experience•extending personal planning horizon

•Evidence from demographic differentials

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World Population Pyramid 2010

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World Population Pyramid 2060:Fast Track Education

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World Population Pyramid 2060Global Education Trend

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World Population Pyramid 2060Constant Enrollment Rate

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World Population Projection:Sustainability/Rapid Development

World Population Projection:Continuation

World Population Projection:Fragmentation/Stalled Development

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Kenya Projected Population:Sustainability/Rapid Development

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Kenya Projected Population:Continuation

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Kenya Projected Population:Fragmentation/

Stalled Development

Take-aways

• Meeting the Keyfitz Challenge makes a big difference.

• Incorporating education makes a bigger difference.

• Transparency and replicability are darned hard to attain in this business, but we hope we came close.

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Thank You !