Has The Market Finally Made Up Its Mind?

Though the trend could reverse course as early as Monday morning, I am very pleased to report that, for the first time in a great while, several of the major indices I use to gauge the health of the overall market (see Eyebrow Levels table below) are finally managing to push into new high territory on good volume rather than fading away just as they seem poised to start setting records again (as has happened the last three or four times they’ve been in such a position)… and, has been mentioned regularly over the past several quarters, this is the signal that we have been waiting for in order to feel more confident about starting to put money back to work in the Model Portfolio (as well as become a bit more aggressive again when it comes to the size of our margin debit in the Aggressive Portfolio)!

That being said, as has also been mentioned many times, if the “frothy, blow-off stage” of the bull market is finally

getting back on track after being derailed by the opening round of tweets regarding tariffs and China way back in early 2018, history suggests that the remainder of the run ought to be a very good one for investors, and, consequently, this means that we do not have to be in a huge rush to put all of our money back to work in one fell swoop (since we will likely be earning decent returns even if we are not fully invested).

As it stands (and despite the fact that the chips stocks are all up substantially from where they were trading when last month’s issue went to press, mind you), I am putting roughly 15% of our cash position in the Model Portfolio back to work this month, with the bulk of the money being used to increase our exposure in the semiconductor space – we had become fairly underweighted in the sector, and I am increasing the sizes of our positions in almost all the stocks by between 10% and 20% (and, at the same time, doing a bit of trimming in a few stocks that have been underperforming in order to help pay for those purchases).

*changes since last issue ^we will use closing prices 11/18/19 for all transactions

CORE

STO

CKS

A monthly publication by Nate Pile www.NatesNotes.com Issue 298 November 15, 2019

N A T E ’ S N O T E S

A man cannot be convinced against his own convictions, but he can be talked into a state of uncertainty and

indecision, which is even worse, for that means that he cannot trade with confidence and comfort.

- from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Edwin Lefèvre)

Inside this issue

Pot Stocks, Bit Coins, and more 2

Top Picks 8

Portfolio Review 8

Winning Ideas for the Individual Investor

Since Last Issue

Year To Date

Since Inception (10/31/97)

Model +2.7% +15.2% +1,994.8%Aggressive +0.3% +36.8% +4,786.3%

DJIA +4.4% +20.1% +276.4%

NASD +6.0% +28.7% +435.9%

Company SymbolOriginally

Rec'd. @

Closing

Price

Strong

Buy !Buy !

New Orders^

(Aggressive Portfolio in parentheses)

First

Buys

Apple AAPL $0.97 $265.76 $240* $270* !

Celgene CELG $0.44 $110.02 $94 $100 !

Illumina ILMN $17.92 $305.98 $270 $310 Sell 25 (50) !

MannKind MNKD $42.55 $1.195 $5 $10 Buy (100,000) !

NVIDIA Corp. NVDA $4.49 $204.19 $185* $205* !

Tekla Life Sciences Investors HQL $21.17 $16.69 $14* $17* !

Walt Disney Co. DIS $13.00 $144.67 $140* $155* !

AS Ranger Equity Bear HDGE $10.56 $5.88 $5* $7*

Catasys CATS $10.51 $15.10 $14 $22 !

Cirrus Logic CRUS $38.39 $72.71 $65* $76* Buy 100 (300) !

Cleveland-Cliffs CLF $11.15 $7.18 $7 $10

Electronic Arts EA $17.01 $97.54 $94 $105 Buy 100 (150) !

First Solar FSLR $60.91 $53.36 $50* $58* Sell 150 (500)

Luminex LMNX $19.58 $20.16 $18 $22 Sell 200 (1,000)

NXP Semiconductors NXPI $24.26 $117.48 $108* $122* Buy 100 (250) !

PowerShares DB Ag. DBA $36.90 $16.13 -- $17

PowerShares DB Cmdties. DBC $35.30 $15.58 -- $16

Qorvo QRVO $8.29 $103.75 95* $110* Buy 150 (250) !

Skyworks Solutions SWKS $29.63 $99.42 $90* $105* Buy 250 (250) !

SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD $93.39 $138.21 -- $144 !

Nate’s Latest Stock Recommendations (as of 11/15/19)

N A T E ’ S N O T E STo be sure, it can be hard to buy stocks right after they

have made big moves to the upside, but as one of our mantras in the newsletter reminds us, trends often go on for longer than seems reasonable… and now that we are finally seeing what is looking more and more like a legitimate breakout to the upside, I believe that we can feel comfortable paying higher prices today than we could have paid a month ago for the simple reason that we now have more evidence (and therefore can have more confidence) that the trend is actually in our favor now.

Of course, there cannot help but be pullbacks along the way in any rally, but instead of trying to pick short-term tops and bottoms as part of a trading strategy (which can be oh-so-tempting to do when stocks are going up and volatility is also on the rise!), you are encouraged to remain disciplined about making several small purchases on a regular basis than rather than establishing an entire position in one fell swoop, as such an approach will help eliminate a lot of the anxiety and/or anguish that often goes along with trying to decide whether to pull the trigger on a trade… or to try and buy the stock “just a nickel cheaper” (and risk missing out on establishing ANY position at all if the order doesn’t fill!)… when, in fact, all that is important is building a position in the first place and then letting the stock market worksits magic as the bull market charges higher!

Having said all of that, I want to remind newer subscribers that the trades I make in the newsletter’s Portfolios each month are always made in the context of what those already established Portfolios already own (or don’t own, as the case may be), and though I am focusing primarily on buying chip stocks this month, if you are still working on building up to being fully invested in your own “Nate’s Notes portfolio,” please keep in mind that there are many other stocks also flagged as “first buys” this month (see table on page 1 of the “pretty” version of the newsletter, or in the spreadsheet that can be downloaded from the same page on the website that you get the newsletter itself from).

In particular, I want to point out that even though we already own “enough” of each in both Portfolios (and are therefore not buying any more this month), Apple, Catasys, Electronic Arts, MannKind, the SPDR Gold Trust, and Disney would also be high on my list for new purchases if we were not already so overweighted in them (MannKind, of course, is its own unique situation, and you can read more about why I am actually buying back the shares we sold in the Aggressive Portfolio last month even though it is already – and quite intentionally, I might add – the largest position in that Portfolio by a pretty wide margin).

And, speaking of stocks I like (or don’t like, as the case may be)… I want to devote a portion of this month’s commentary section to discussing a few situations that I have been getting asked about lately… enjoy!

Pot Stocks, Bitcoin (vs. Gold), and more…

Though I do not get asked about “bitcoins” (and “crypto-currencies”) anywhere near as often as I get asked about pot

stocks, it has been a little over two years since I last spent any meaningful time discussing either topic, and since both are once again starting to show up in my stream of questions from subscribers, I thought it would be a good idea to touch base on both in hopes that there are even more of you who have been wondering about these two sectors.

As far as “pot stocks” go, while it is true that many of the big names in the sector are down substantially (70–90% in many cases – yipes!) from their 52-week highs , I am afraid that many of these companies are still trading at valuations that are probably still quite a bit too high relative to their eventual earnings potential (or even revenue potential, if one wants to spend some time measuring investment opportunity via that metric), and with an acknowledgement that it is

certainly possible that a few of the companies will manage to find a way to both survive and prosper as the industry continues to grow, this continues to be a sector that I would encourage to avoid until the dust finally settles, especially when contrasted with the opportunities

presented by the likes of Catasys and MannKind from their current market capitalizations, for example (and,

speaking of which, I want to remind you that we technically already have a toe in the water when it

comes to the cannabis industry via the license that privately-held Receptor Life Sciences has taken out to utilize MannKind’s Technosphere platform for some of their potential products)!

With regards to investing in bitcoins (especially when looked at in the context of being an alternative to buying gold), I continue to feel the same way as I did two years ago, namely, though I can’t promise you that crypto-currencies won’t eventually play a more meaningful role in the global

economy than they do today, I want to also repeat what I had to say on the topic last time around, namely, one does not need to participate in every great idea that comes along in order to beat the market, as it only takes a few big winners to outperform the markets by a wide margin as time goes by… and, given the line-up of stocks that we are currently betting on in the newsletter, along with the relative infancy of the crypto-currency opportunity (even

if it is, in theory, quite a large opportunity if all goes the way those in the bullish camp suggest it will), I would still rather see you own gold if you are looking for a hedge against “uncertainty, chaos, and potential meltdowns in the system.”

In addition, though we only have a very short period of data (relatively speaking) to look at when trying to understand how investors view crypto-currencies during times of crisis, we do know with a very high degree of confidence that, historically, investors have always flocked to gold during times of extreme uncertainty, and though it remains to be seen whether the current pause in the action for gold is merely an example of the sort of temporary cooling off period that one would expect any asset class to experience after a quick run… or the beginning of the end of the run… I believe the fact that the precious metal is essentially trading at a six-year high is a fairly convincing piece of evidence that a longer-term uptrend is, in fact, getting underway.

Nate Pile

Either way, though I have no problem if you want to throw some money at crypto-currencies too as a way to play to the situation, I want to make sure that any of you who are concerned about “the state of the world” these days to realize that investing in gold is a great way to hedge your portfolio (“small purchases regularly,” of course!) against the uncertainties that we are facing on so many different fronts.

Getting to the “and more” portion of this section’s heading,

• while some (and perhaps even most) of them may eventually prove to be good investments, you are encouraged to avoid just about all of the “big name” stocks that have come public over the past twelve months (Uber, Lyft, Beyond Meat, to name just a few, but you get the idea) until at least another quarter or two of earnings have gone by AND the potential selling related to lock-up periods associated with stock held by insiders has had a chance to play itself out,

• though I am being asked about it more and more frequently, I believe it is still too early to start handicapping (and potentially repositioning our Portfolios in anticipation of) next year’s election, and so I am going to refrain from doing so until it gets much closer – for now (as another of our favorite mantras tells us), keep in mind that our job is to position our portfolios based on what the market is actually doing, not on what we think (or are worried) it might do… and, at the moment, what the market is doing is breaking out into new high territory (a circumstance that can never be considered anything but a “bullish” indicator!),

• please note that while I am leaving things untouched for the other four indices in the Eyebrow Levels table, I did slightly raise the thresholds for the SOX semiconductor index this month, and, if the market does continue to power higher in the weeks ahead, I will likely raise the numbers for the other four as well next month (or soon thereafter),

• and, yes – even though Disney’s stock has made a massive move to the upside over the past couple of days in response to a very impressive launch of its new Disney+

streaming service (which, so far, my family agrees is an “awesome” service in terms of ease of use and the content available), it is still worth buying; to be sure, it will likely experience a bit of a pullback at some point as shorter-term traders take profits, but, especially in the current market environment, I believe the recent move higher suggests there is even more to come!

And, finally, since the MannKind questions keep coming, I cannot help but devote a tiny bit of space to addressing them as well (quick bullet-points to hit the main topics):

• no, there is no “bad” outcome for the warrants – if they are exercised, MannKind gets a large chunk of cash, if not, those shares will be available for other deals; if the warrants are held by folks short the stock, they will have some tough decisions to make heading into the expiration date – if the stock is above $1.60, they’ll cover that way, but if it’s not, they’ll be facing the less desirable situation of needing to cover via open market purchases and/or options (which simply causes the option seller to buy stock in the open market if they’re not already long),

• speaking of short sellers, if you are “worried” that short sellers are protected by calls they’ve purchased, keep in mind that if they exercise those calls, folks who wrote covered calls will then find themselves without shares (which they may or may not choose to replace via new purchases – either way, note that there is still the potential for “a buying surge” ),

• no, for a variety of reasons, I am not part of the Hope for MannKind movement,

• though I understand that there is a lot of chatter going on amongst traders around loan covenants, I want to remind you that the interest rate MannKind will be paying on a loan is not likely to have any influence the ultimate fate of Afrezza (and Technosphere) – at this stage, as an investor, you just have to ask yourself whether you think MannKind is going to succeed or not succeed, and then place your bet accordingly (and, as you know, our underlying reason for owning the stock – and especially for being so aggressive at these lower prices – is that I believe the company’s assets and intellectual property are worth quite a bit more than $250 million).

“Eyebrow Levels” (used to help us gauge the overall health of the market*)

Index Current One Eyebrow Two Eyebrows

DJIA 28,005 24,350 23,000

Nasdaq 8,541 7,250 6,500

S&P 500 3,120 2,675 2,500

BTK 4,670 4,200 3,900

SOX 1,743 1,375 1,275*As long as all five indices are trading above their “one eyebrow” levels, it is a sign that the current uptrend is still intact; however, if the indices start to dip below those levels, it will cause me to raise an eyebrow and wonder if the trend may be coming to an end… and if both eyebrows go up, it will mean that things are deteriorating in a hurry (if you see eyebrow levels being broken, start looking for a “Special Alert” from me in your email box).

New To The Newsletter?Here are a few guidelines to help you get started:• Decide how much of your overall portfolio you'd

like to allocate to the ideas in Nateʼs Notes... and then plan on investing it in roughly equal amounts each month over a period of several months.

• Make your initial purchases based on the “first buys” that are check-marked in the table on the front page of the newsletter (note that you do not have to buy all of them each month!), as well as in the commentary found in the company write-ups.

• Try to invest slightly more money in “core stocks” vs. “non-core stocks” (60%-40%, respectively, is a reasonable ratio to aim for when first starting out).

You can read more on this topic in the May 2013 issue of the newsletter online.

Issue 298 • November 2019 • www.NatesNotes.com

N A T E ’ S N O T E S

Apple • AAPL Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$0.97 $265.76 $265.78 $142.00 4,520.8 $1,201,447.8Whether it is a sign that “big money” knows that things are actually going well on the trade war front, a short squeeze, an example of FOMO (“fear of missing out”) on the part of investors, or simply a case of Wall Street waking up to the fact that Apple still does a lot of things right, the stock has been on fire lately, and though you are naturally encouraged to sell a bit if it will help you sleep more easily at night, you are also encouraged to be as patient as possible when it comes to taking profits. For its fourth quarter, Apple reported revenues of $64 billion and net income of just under $13.7 billion, or $3.03 per share. Bought in small lots on a regular basis rather than all at once, AAPL is now a strong buy under $240 and a buy under $270.

Core Stocks shown in orange • Charts courtesy of BigCharts.com • All prices shown are as of the publication date

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Net Assets(millions) AdvisorShares Ranger Equity Bear • HDGE

$10.56 $5.88 $8.99 $5.87 ETF $179.0As we would hope to see given the inverse relationship between this ETF and the overall market, shares of HDGE are hitting new all-time lows as the market pushes into new high territory, and though this is a very small fund, we can still count it as an additional piece of evidence that the rally in the market may actually have some legs this time around. As always, please recognize that this “inverse ETF” is only in the newsletter at the request of a small, very aggressive group of subscribers… and, though I am not ready to drop coverage just yet, I am willing to say that the idea is crossing my mind more and more often these days. In the meantime, HDGE is now considered a strong buy under $5 and a buy under $7.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Catasys • CATS

$10.51 $15.10 $20.83 $8.71 15.9 $240.1Though we can’t actually say that a new uptrend is underway until the stock is starting to hit new 52-week highs again, I can tell you that I am very pleased with the manner in which the stock has been consolidating for the past six months, and the longer it can trade sideways without breaking $12, the more confident we can feel that the next move higher ought to be a very good one, especially if the company is able to fire on all cylinders for an extended period once the move gets underway. The company is in a great position to cash in on the early lead it has built in this emerging segment of healthcare – the challenge will be to grow at the “right” pace (vs. “too fast”). CATS is considered a strong buy under $14 and a buy under $22.

Celgene • CELG Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$0.44 $110.02 $110.70 $58.59 808.7 $88,973.2As more and more pieces fall into place regarding the proposed merger with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY – $58.59), shares of both companies have been working their way higher. My apologies for those of you who are “planning to do whatever Nate does” (and have been patiently waiting for some guidance), but I am afraid that I still have not made up my mind about whether I will continue to hold BMY after the merger or not. That being said, there are plenty of good places to put your money at this point in time, and so, even though Celgene is not a bad place to be, there is nothing wrong with selling a bit of Celgene to buy something else if you are so inclined! CELG remains a strong buy under $94 and a buy under $100.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

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Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Cirrus Logic • CRUS

$38.39 $72.71 $73.50 $31.25 60.4 $4,391.7As you can see in the chart to the right, Cirrus’ stock gapped up nicely in response to the company’s most recent earnings report, and though your guess is as good as mine as to how it will behave next week, it is hard to argue with the idea that the trend is pretty clearly up at this point in time! For its second quarter, Cirrus reported revenues of $388.9 million and net income of $76.2 million, or $1.27 per share, as compared to revenues of $238.3 million and net income of $4.6 million, or $0.08 per share, in the same period a year ago. In response to both the outlook and the price action, I am raising the buy limits and adding to our positions in both Portfolios this month. CRUS is now a strong buy under $65 and a buy under $76.

Issue 298 • November 2019 • www.NatesNotes.com

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Electronic Arts • EA

$17.01 $97.54 $108.80 $73.91 313.0 $30,530.0No, we cannot count our chickens before they’ve hatched, but looking at the chart to the right, my experiences suggest that if EA’s stock can continue to work its way higher in the weeks ahead (and provided the market has not abruptly reversed course on no news, of course), the stage appears to be set nicely for it to also make an extended run to the upside once it finally breaks into new 52-week high territory. For its third quarter, EA reported revenues of just over $1.3 billion and net income of $854 million, or $2.89 per share, as compared to revenues of just under $1.3 billion and net income of $255 million, or $0.83 per share, in the same period a year ago. Especially as a “first buy,” EA is a strong buy under $94 and a buy under $105.

Page 5

Cleveland-Cliffs • CLF Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$11.15 $7.18 $12.26 $6.59 301.3 $2,163.3Though the stock is probably worth patiently accumulating at this point if you have strong convictions that, at some point, “inflation” is going to return to the conversation… or that our government will eventually come up with and implement a major infrastructure plan… as you can see in the chart to the left, CLF has been spending the past few months just trading sideways right above its 52-week low, and though it remains to be seen whether that price level will continue to hold or not, there are clearly other stocks that are behaving better these days (and so you are encouraged to remain patient when it comes to adding to your position here). In the meantime, CLF is considered a strong buy under $7 and a buy under $10.

First Solar • FSLR Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$60.91 $53.36 $69.24 $38.45 105.4 $5,624.1While it is possible that the stock may find support here, form a base, and then start working its way higher again, I have to admit that I am once again perplexed by the price action we have been seeing in the stock lately, and in the same way that I was puzzled by its good relative strength while the trade war was turning more ugly, I am equally surprised by its underperformance lately in light of where things supposedly stand on the trade war front. For its third quarter, First Solar reported revenues of $546.8 million and net incomes of $30.6 million, or $0.29 per share. Though I still like the company long-term, I am selling a few shares out of both Portfolios. FSLR is a strong buy under $54 and a buy under $62.

Luminex • LMNX Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$19.58 $20.16 $30.16 $17.35 44.2 $891.1Yep – along with Illumina’s stock, Luminex’s is also struggling to make much headway to the upside, and though I do find the stock attractive at current prices, I am also selling a few shares out of our Luminex positions in both Portfolios this month in order to help pay for the purchases I am making elsewhere. For its third quarter, Luminex reported revenues of $78.7 million and a net loss of $5.2 million, or $0.12 per share, as compared to revenues of $72.4 million and net income of $1.7 million, or $0.04 per share, in the same period a year ago. No, I am not giving up on the stock – I am simply redeploying some of the capital, as I do with the Portfolios every month! LMNX remains a strong buy under $18 and a buy under $22.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

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Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Illumina • ILMN

$17.92 $305.99 $380.76 $263.30 147.8 $45,225.3Unfortunately, I am afraid that there is not a lot of good that can be said about the chart to the right, other than, on a longer-term basis, the stock appears to be forming a fairly solid base in the $300 range... and, of course, history suggests that the more time it spends trading sideways, the stronger the next move to the upside will likely be, especially given where we seem to be in the current market cycle these days. For its third quarter, Illumina reported revenues of $907 million and net income of $234 million, or $1.58 per share, as compared to revenues of $853 million and net income of $199 million, or $1.33 per share, in last year’s third quarter. With patience, ILMN is a strong buy under $270 and a buy under $310.

N A T E ’ S N O T E S

Core Stocks shown in orange • Charts courtesy of BigCharts.com • All prices shown are as of the publication date

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) NVIDIA Corp • NVDA

$4.49 $204.19 $211.86 $124.46 627.0 $128,031.2Though its very near-term action is not quite as impressive as what we are seeing from a few of the other chip stocks in the newsletter this month, there is no doubt that NVIDIA’s stock is also in a nice uptrend at the moment when looked at on a longer-term basis. That being said, please note that because it is such a larger company than our other plays in the sector (and it is also already one of our largest chip positions in the Portfolios), it is the one chip stock I am not buying more of this month (but I still like the company’s long-term prospects very much!). For its third quarter, NVIDIA reported revenues of just over $3 billion and net income of $899 million, or $1.45 per share NVDA is now a strong buy under $185 and a buy under $205.

NXP Semiconductors • NXPI Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$24.26 $117.48 $120.84 $67.62 285.1 $33,493.5Yep – everything that was said about the price action of NVIDIA’s stock lately applies to NXP’s as well; however, because we are slightly more underweighted in NXP than we are in NVIDIA, I am comfortable adding a few more shares in both Portfolios this month (and despite the fact that the stock is “already up so much,” you are encouraged to think about adding a few shares to your own portfolios as well). Those of you who have been involved with the stock for awhile now will recall that the all-time high of roughly $125 was set a little less than two years ago, and, yes – it will be a very bullish sign if the stock ends up clearing that level in the weeks ahead. NXPI is a strong buy under $108 and a buy under $122.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Net Assets(millions) PowerShares DB Agriculture • DBA

$36.90 $16.13 $17.51 $14.62 ETF $663.4On the one hand, there is no doubt that the shares of the agricultural ETF have staged a nice little rebound over the past couple of months; on the other hand, however, the chart to the right is still more depressing than uplifting to look at, and given just how much uncertainty there is in the world these days in terms of who will be buying what from whom (and at what “extra” cost), I do not see any reason to start being more aggressive about buying back shares that we have sold (on net) over the past several quarters. To be sure, only a fool would argue that inflation has been vanquished forever, but I will be the first to admit that I have been wrong in my (continued under “DBC” below) DBA remains a buy under $17.

PowerShares DB Commodities • DBC Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Net Assets(millions)

$35.30 $15.58 $16.37 $14.32 ETF $2,500.0(continuing from “DBA” above) assessment of the situation, and as surprising as I find it to be, it is hard to find much evidence that inflation is on the verge of making a comeback at this point in time. Not surprisingly, much of what was just said about DBA also applies to DBC, and this is another situation in which I am comfortable sticking with our intentionally underweighted positions in the ETFs… but am also not willing to exit them altogether, as I believe there is still plenty of time left on the clock, so to speak, and if/when we do finally start to see first a firming, and then an uptick, in commodity prices, I will be more than happy to start adding to our positions in these commodity-based ETFs. DBC is a buy under $16.

MannKind Corp. • MNKD Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$42.55 $1.20 $2.34 $0.94 187.4 $223.9There were only “good” cards turned over during the most recent earnings call, and though sentiment seems to be at an all-time low thanks to the never-ending chorus of “there’s nothing right going on at MannKind!” being sung in the world of social media these days, I have to say that, from where I sit, the company actually appears to be in the best shape it has been in since Viehbacher was let go from Sanofi; consequently, I am taking advantage of the recent sell-off to repurchase the shares we sold last month in the Aggressive Portfolio (and, in doing so, will also restore the much more “satisfying” 1:10 ratio between the Model and Aggressive Portfolio’s position sizes – heh). MNKD is a strong buy under $5 and a buy under $10.

Issue 298 • November 2019 • www.NatesNotes.com

Page 7

Tekla Life Sciences Investors • HQL Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$21.17 $16.69 $18.02 $13.95 20.1 $335.9Unfortunately, as nice as the bounce we have seen in shares of HQL over the past six weeks has been, I have to admit that I still do not find the chart to the left to be terribly encouraging looking, especially when stacked up against the observation that the BTK biotech index is also still lagging the other four indices in the Eyebrow Levels table by a somewhat concerning margin. That being said, I am comfortable being so underweighted in HQL at this stage of the game, but rest assured that I will be watching the situation closely, and as soon as the biotech sector looks like it might be ready to join the party, I will likely become much more aggressive about repurchasing the stock. HQL is now a strong buy under $14 and buy under $17.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Net Assets(millions) SPDR Gold Trust • GLD

$93.39 $138.21 $146.82 $114.59 ETF $36,370.0While it is true that I would have preferred to have seen shares of this ETF hold above the $140 level , they can actually trade all the way back down to $125(ish) level without violating the longer-term uptrend; that being said, I would naturally like to see the price of gold start heading higher again rather than continuing to trend lower, but we’ll see what happens between now and next month’s issue. In the meantime, though both Portfolios already own “enough” gold for the time being, if you are still underweighted in the precious metal (and/or find yourself feeling especially anxious about the state of the world), you are encouraged to think about adding a few shares of this ETF to your portfolio. GLD is a buy under $144.

Skyworks Solutions • SWKS Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions)

$29.63 $99.42 $102.87 $60.12 174.6 $17,358.7Though the two-week jump in Skyworks’ valuation hasn’t been quite as dramatic as the one seen with Qorvo’s, the price action we are seeing here is also a very welcome sign, as it helps provide additional confirmation that the rally in chips stocks may be for real (and this, in turn, is a very welcome piece of evidence to support the idea that the whole market may be gearing up for another leg higher). For its fiscal 2019, Skyworks reported revenues of just under $3.4 billion million and net income of $853.6 million, or $4.89 per share, as compared to revenues of just under $3.9 billion and net income of $918.4 million, or $5.01 per share, in the prior fiscal year. SWKS is now considered a strong buy under $90 and a buy under $105.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Qorvo • QRVO

$8.29 $103.75 $104.88 $54.74 129.5 $13,435.6Heh – is Qorvo, as a company, really worth 30% more today than it was just two weeks ago? Of course not! However, this is exactly the sort of price action we have been hoping to see while watching for clues that the “frothy, blow-off stage” of the bull market might be getting back on track! Yes, the trend could reverse course as soon as Monday (and, yes, there will be “cooling off” periods along the way), but unless you need to lighten up on your position in order to resume sleeping easily at night, you are encouraged to view the recent price action as a reason to buy (“small lots regularly,” mind you) rather than sell; I am adding a few shares to both Portfolios this month. QRVO is now a strong buy under $95 and a buy under $110.

Originally Rec’d.

Current Price

52-WkHigh

52-WkLow

Shares Out(millions)

Market Cap(millions) Walt Disney • DIS

$13.00 $144.67 $150.63 $100.35 1,530.0 $221,345.1While it remains to be seen where the stock will find support after shooting higher in response to a very impressive launch of its new Disney+ streaming service, I believe the chart patterns that are being traced out by the stock when looked at over just about ANY time period cannot be considered anything but “bullish looking,” and given the combination of where we seem to be at in the market’s fear-greed cycle these days and the manner in which Disney’s management team has been running the organization under Bob Iger’s leadership, I believe that you should be working on making Disney one of your largest holdings (within reason, or course) if it not one already. DIS is now a strong buy under $140 and a buy under $165.

N A T E ’ S

Subscription Rates are $289 for 1 year, $519 for 2 years • Order online at NotWallStreet.com or call 707-433-7903 to order by phone • Customers may cancel at any time for a pro rata refund. • Nate’s Notes is published by Nate Pile DBA NotWallStreet.com P.O. Box 667 Healdsburg, CA 95448 • This entire newsletter is Copyright © 2019 by Nate Pile and NotWallStreet.com. All Rights Reserved. • Members of the press should contact Nate at the above number or at Nate@NatesNotes.com.

The Model and Aggressive Portfolios are designed to hypothetically track the results of our recommendations over time. The Model Portfolio was started with $100K in February 1995. The Aggressive Portfolio was started with $100K in October 1997 and is designed for investors with a shorter time horizon and higher tolerance for risk (due to regular use of margin). For the purposes of tracking performance, a commission of 1% is charged on all stock transactions. All realized gains (and any dividends paid on existing positions) are reinvested in their respective Portfolios. As is standard in the newsletter industry, due to the variability of tax rates and margin rates depending on an individual’s situation, no effort is made to factor either of them into the returns reported.

Information contained herein was derived from sources believed to be reliable. However, no guarantees can be made concerning the completeness or accuracy of said information. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. The Editor and affiliates of the Editor (family members, friends, etc.) may have positions in and may from time-to-time buy or sell any security mentioned herein. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Top Picks (for new money this month)

All else being equal (i.e. you already own “pretty much everything” in the newsletter), my top picks for you this month are:

Cirrus Logic (CRUS) – After spending a fair amount of time lagging its peers, Cirrus’ stock has come to life with a vengeance… and such momentum is usually worth buying (especially in the context of being a “top pick”).

Electronic Arts (EA) – Though it has not broken into new 52-week high territory just yet, if the overall market continues to rally, I expect EA’s stock to also break out to the upside (and, given the amount of time it has spent trading sideways, the move could be a good one once it gets underway).

MannKind (MNKD) – Despite the fact that only “good cards” were turned over for us in the most recent earnings call, the stock dropped sharply in response, and, in doing so, most likely washed

out the last of the long-time shareholders who have given up hope… and this, in turn, should help clear the way for a quicker move to the upside as new investors start taking a look at what is (slowly, but steadily) becoming a very intriguing turnaround story.

Outstanding Orders

For the reasons discussed above and below, the Model (Aggressive) Portfolio will sell 150 (500) First Solar, 25 (50) Illumina, and 200 (1,000) Luminex and purchase 100 (300) Cirrus Logic, 100 (150) Electronic Arts, (100,000) MannKind, 100 (250) NXP Semiconductors, 150 (250) Qorvo, and 250 (250) Skyworks Solutions. We will use the closing prices on Monday, November 18th, for all transactions.

Nate Pile, Editor

POSITION

AS Ranger Equity Bear 3,000 $31,271 $17,640 -43.6% 10,000 $103,263 $58,800 -43.1%Apple 325 $29,971 $86,372 +188.2% 800 $54,620 $212,608 +289.2%Catasys 15,000 $201,642 $226,500 +12.3% 70,000 $877,295 $1,057,000 +20.5%Celgene 400 $37,788 $44,008 +16.5% 500 $47,229 $55,010 +16.5%Cirrus Logic 900 $42,059 $65,439 +55.6% 2,700 $112,849 $196,317 +74.0%Cleveland-Cliffs 7,500 $68,418 $53,850 -21.3% 25,000 $229,213 $179,500 -21.7%Electronic Arts 700 $51,537 $68,278 +32.5% 2,750 $173,700 $268,235 +54.4%First Solar 1,150 $57,846 $61,364 +6.1% 4,250 $218,016 $226,780 +4.0%Illumina 225 $34,963 $68,846 +96.9% 550 $79,630 $168,289 +111.3%Luminex 1,800 $36,725 $36,288 -1.2% 7,000 $139,056 $141,120 +1.5%MannKind 250,000 $496,653 $298,750 -39.8% 2,400,000 $5,849,386 $2,868,000 -51.0%NVIDIA Corp. 350 $22,120 $71,467 +223.1% 1,000 $16,976 $204,190 +1,102.8%NXP Semiconductors 500 $45,758 $58,740 +28.4% 1,500 $130,711 $176,220 +34.8%PowerShares DB Ag. 1,750 $37,400 $28,228 -24.5% 4,000 $86,916 $64,520 -25.8%PowerShares DB Cmdties. 2,000 $32,285 $31,160 -3.5% 3,500 $58,269 $54,530 -6.4%Qorvo 650 $39,341 $67,438 +71.4% 2,500 $127,271 $259,375 +103.8%Skyworks Solutions 250 $20,381 $24,855 +22.0% 1,000 $74,241 $99,420 +33.9%SPDR Gold Trust ETF 1,300 $157,113 $179,673 +14.4% 7,500 $908,567 $1,036,575 +14.1%Tekla Life Sciences Investors 1,250.0 $9,913 $20,863 +110.5% 4,500.0 $37,062 $75,105 +102.6%Walt Disney Co. 1,200 $114,833 $173,604 +51.2% 4,000 $370,622 $578,680 +56.1%

$1,683,361 $7,980,274$333,535 ($3,093,961)

$2,016,896 +1,916.9% $4,886,313 +4,786.3%

Sold 200 (1,000) LMNX @ $19.86

PORTFOLIO #2: AGGRESSIVETotal Cost

Shares owned

Today's Value

Cash (Debit):Stocks:

Cash (Debit):

Company

Total Value:

Sold (5,000) CATS @ $14.56

Total % Change

Orders Filled 10/14/19(Aggressive Portfolio in parentheses)

Total Cost

Today's Value

PORTFOLIO #1: MODELTotal % Change

Total Value:

Stocks:

Shares owned

Sold 500 (2,500) CLF @ $7.17Sold 100 (300) CRUS @ $55.22

Sold 286 (620) HQL @ $14.90

Sold 150 (500) FSLR @ $56.49Sold 25 (50) ILMN @ $310.31

Sold 50 (200) QRVO @ $84.98Sold 10,000 (100,000) MNKD @ $1.29

Bought 100 (500) NXPI @ $111.24Sold (400) DIS @ $129.70

credited $800 ($2,750) from CLF dividend 10/15/19credited $180 ($720) from LMNX dividend 10/17/19credited $250 ($616) from AAPL dividend 11/14/19