eei financial conference/media/files/p/pnm... · 2019. 11. 8. · contact information and safe...

38
EEI Financial Conference November 2019

Upload: others

Post on 02-Feb-2021

3 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • EEI Financial ConferenceNovember 2019

  • Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement

    2

    Investor Relations Contact Information

    Lisa Goodman Director, Investor Relations and Shareholder Services U.S. [email protected]

    Safe Harbor StatementStatements made in this presentation for PNM Resources, Inc. (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced bymany factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.

    Non-GAAP Financial MeasuresFor an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and ongoing earnings guidance measures), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm.

    http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm

  • Company Overview

  • PNM Resources Overview

    4

    Generation Resources and Service Territories

    PNM Resources is a regulated electric utility holding company focused on providing environmentally responsible, affordable and

    reliable electricity to customers and above industry average earnings and dividend growth to shareholders

    NYSE Ticker: PNM Market Cap: $4B

    • Energy holding company• Based in Albuquerque, New Mexico

    • Located in New Mexico• 530,977 customers• 15,158 miles transmission and

    distribution lines• 2,701 MW generation capacity

    • Located in Texas• 255,879 end-users• 9,408 miles transmission and

    distribution lines

  • PNM Resources Strategic Direction and Financial Goals

    5

    • Plans to be coal-free by 2031• Goal to be emissions-free by 2040• Retire and replace coal-fired generation with

    cleaner energy portfolio• Invest to maintain system reliability

    Transform to Cleaner Energy

    Portfolio

    • Provide reliable, affordable energy while enhancing customer experience

    • Integrate technologies and customer insights to new products and services

    • Enhance grid to facilitate evolving customer needs

    Meet Customer

    Expectations

    • Deliver earnings and dividend growth at or above industry-average

    • Earn allowed returns• Maintain investment grade credit ratings

    Provide Earnings and

    Dividend Growth

  • $255 $275$306 $322

    $345

    $245 $337 $270

    $342 $348

    $125

    $176 $173

    $182 $202

    $128

    $99

    $94 $82

    $77

    $68

    $60 $53

    $109 $268 $48

    $177

    $72$37

    $27

    $22

    $27

    $21

    $21 $25

    2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    (in m

    illio

    ns)

    TNMP PNM T&D PV Lease Purchases/Other Replacement PowerPNM Existing Generation PNM Renewable Additions PNM Transmission ExpansionSJGS Replacement Power 50% NMRD Renewable Additions Business Technology Services/General ServicesDepreciation

    $641

    $771

    $991

    $818

    $694

    $3.9B investment plan results in 9.6% rate base growth$317M increase in TNMP investments

    6

    2019 – 2023 Investment Plan

    (1) Depreciation does not include amounts associated with NMRD(2) Western Spirit acquisition of $285M reflects assumed purchase price of $360M, net of $75M customer funding(3) For Palo Verde leases that expire in 2023, capex assumes either the purchase of the leases or replacement of the power through new resources

    (1)

    (2)

    Targeted 2018-2023 Rate Base CAGR (2018 base): Total 9.6% / PNM 6.6% / TNMP 17.3%

    (3)

    Chart1

    2019

    2020

    2021

    322

    345

    Depreciation

    255

    275

    306

    Sheet1

    20192020202120222023

    PNM Generation

    PNM T&D

    PNM Renewables

    TNMP

    Other

    Total

    Depreciation255275306322345

    Check

  • 2019 - 2023 Potential Earnings Power

    7This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2023 earnings guidance.

    Refer to Slide 31 for additional details and disclosures.

    Earnings Growth Target 5-6%; reflects updated investment plan• Additional earnings potential at TNMP strengthens target• Equity financing plans continue to reflect modeling assumptions that will be optimized

    (1) Assumes mid-year implementation(2) Optimization of timing/size not definitive, total equity need of $590M focused on forward block sale and/or mandatory convertiblesNote: 2018-2023 CAGR measured from 2018 Ongoing EPS of $2.00

    Allowed Return / Equity Ratio

    2019 Ongoing Earnings

    Guidance Midpoint

    2020 Earnings Potential

    2021 Earnings Potential

    2022 Earnings Potential

    2023 Earnings Potential

    Avg Rate Base Return EPS

    Avg Rate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPS

    PNM Retail 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 8.9% $1.37 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48 $2.4 B $1.48

    San JuanReplacement(1)

    9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.09 $280 M $0.17

    PNM Renewables 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.07

    PNM FERC 10% / ~50% $275 M 6.9% $0.12 $330 M $0.15-$0.20 $530 M $0.26-$0.30 $740 M $0.37-$0.42 $780 M $0.39-$0.44

    Items not in Rates $0.04 ($0.04)-($0.02) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)Total PNM $2.7 B $1.60 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.84-$1.90 $3.5 B $1.99-$2.06 $3.6 B $2.08-$2.15

    TNMP 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.67 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.5 B $0.84 $1.6 B $0.89 $1.9 B $1.02

    Corporate/Other ($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.19) - ($0.17) ($0.23)-($0.21)Equity Financing Plans(2) ($0.01)-$0.00 ($0.10)-($0.09) ($0.20) - ($0.19) ($0.24)-($0.23)Total PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.08 $4.2 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.7 B $2.37 - $2.46 $5.1 B $2.49 - $2.59 $5.6 B $2.63 - $2.73

  • Earnings Growth

    8

    2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

    $1.49 $1.64 $1.65

    $1.94 $2.00 $2.08

    $2.20 $2.42

    $2.54 5-6% Target: $2.55-$2.68

    Actual Ongoing EPS Midpoint Guidance / Earnings Potential

    $2.68

    2018 – 2023: Targeting 5 - 6% Ongoing EPS CAGR• 2014 - 2018: Achieved 7.6% Ongoing EPS CAGR• 2014 - 2023: Reflects 6-7% Ongoing EPS CAGR

  • $0.74Dec ‘13

    $0.80Dec ‘14

    $0.88Dec’ 15

    $0.97Dec ‘16

    $1.06Dec ‘17

    $1.16Dec ‘18

    $1.22-$1.23

    $1.28-$1.30

    $1.34-$1.38

    $1.41-$1.46

    8%

    10%10%

    9%9%

    55-56% payout

    53-54% payout

    53-54% payout

    53-55% payout

    Dividend Growth

    9

    Indicative annual dividend rate

    • Expect dividend growth at or above industry average (~5%) in the future while targeting the middle of a 50% - 60% payout ratio range

    • Next dividend review in December 2019

    Consistent Delivery of Dividend Growth At or Above Industry AverageExpect future dividend growth to mirror earnings growth (approximately 5-6%)

    Payout based upon midpoint earnings potential

  • Liquidity and Debt Maturity Outlook

    10

    • Completed:• Extended $700M revolving credit facilities through 2023• Refinanced $172 million of 9.5% TNMP First Mortgage Bonds

    • Equity issuances of up to $590 million through forward block and/or mandatory convertibles are projected to fund 2020 -2023 expenditures

    • New debt issuances projected at utilities through 2023 of ~$800 million and $361 million securitization bonds

    Maintain appropriate credit metrics

    Remain a solid investment grade

    rated company

    Target regulatory capital structures at PNM

    and TNMP

    Moody’s Rating/Outlook

    S&P Rating/Outlook

    PNM Resources Baa3(1) / Stable BBB+(1) / Negative

    PNM Baa2(2) / Stable BBB+(2) / Negative

    TNMP A1(3) / Stable A(3) / Negative

    PNM Resources FFO-to-Debt is maintained well within Moody’s Baa investment grade

    target range of 13% to 22%

    (1) Issuer rating (2) Senior unsecured rating (3) Senior secured rating

    $350 $306 $57$1,003$35

    $658

    $140 $300

    2020 2021 2022 2023 and Beyond

    Long-term Debt Maturities(in millions)

    PNM TNMP Corporate

  • Generation Portfolio Transformation

  • New Mexico Energy Policy

    12

    Nuclear 30%

    Senate Bill 489 (Energy Transition Act): passed in 2019 legislative session and signed by New Mexico Governor Lujan Grisham; effective June 14, 2019

    • Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon-Free Goal• Current: 20% renewables by 2020• Proposed:

    • 40% renewables by 2025• 50% renewables by 2030• 80% renewables by 2040• 100% carbon-free by 2045

    • Securitization measure for abandonment of coal-fired generating facilities reduces customer bills

    • Economic development funds provide needed financial assistance to workers and the communities impacted by retirement of coal-fired generating facilities

    50%

    Ren

    ewab

    les

    80%

    Ren

    ewab

    les

    40%

    Ren

    ewab

    les

    100%

    Car

    bon-

    Free2045

    20402030

    2025

  • Exit from Coal Generation, Emission Reductions

    13

    • The shutdown of Units 2 and 3 at PNM San Juan Generating Station in December 2017 reduced CO₂ emissions at this plant by 54% below 2005 levels

    • The 2017 Integrated Resource Plan called for a complete exit from coal generation by the end of 2031

    • New Mexico’s Energy Transaction Act, effective June 14, 2019, calls for 100% carbon-free energy by 2045

    • PNM has stated a goal to be 100% emissions-free by 2040

    983

    762

    200

    2005 2018 2023 2031

    Reduction of MW Coal Capacity

    22% reduction

    80%reduction

    100% coal free

    Read more in our Climate Change Report at http://www.pnmresources.com/about-us/sustainability-portal.aspx

  • San Juan Abandonment, Securitization and Replacement Power

    14

    Aban

    donm

    ent ● Requests

    abandonment of San Juan coal plant after participation agreement and coal supply contracts end June 30, 2022 Se

    curit

    izatio

    n ● $283M undepreciated investment in San Juan, proceeds available to fund replacement power

    ● $29M decommissioning and reclamation costs

    ● $20M job training and severance costs

    ● $20M economic development funds

    ● $9M financing costs

    Total $361M securitization

    Repl

    acem

    ent P

    ower ● Recommended

    scenario balances environment, cost and reliability

    ● 350MW solar drives 62% reduction in carbon emissions

    ● 130MW battery storage capacity responsibly integrates new technology

    ● 280MW natural gas peaking plants ensure reliability during energy transition, provides San Juan property tax base

    Total $298M investment

    Timing• Filed July 1, 2019• NMPRC decision on abandonment and

    securitization expected by April 2020; decision on replacement power expected by October 2020

  • Energy Transition Act Applicability - Intervenor Positions

    15

    Intervenor(s) BriefsAbandonment/Securitization(19-00018-UT)

    Replacement Power

    (19-00195-UT)Comments

    Board of County Commissioners for the County of San Juan and the City of Farmington

    Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan community

    Central Consolidated School District Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan communityCitizens for Fair Rates and the Environment Commission should disregard provisions that conflict with the New Mexico ConstitutionCoalition for Clean Affordable Energy IBEW/IUOE Interwest Energy Alliance New Energy Economy X X Cannot apply; ETA is unconstitutionalNMPRC Staff X X Cannot be applied to pending caseSan Juan Legislative Delegation Contingent upon provision of funds to the San Juan communitySierra Club Southwest Generation Operating Company No position on ETA applicability to abandonment/securitizationWestern Resource Advocates Parties that did not file a brief on ETA applicability: ABCWUA, Attorney General, Bernalillo County, City of Albuquerque, County of Los Alamos, Diné Citizens Against Ruining Our Environment, Greg Sonnenfeld, M-S-R Public Power Agency, Navajo Power, NM AREA, Prosperity Works, REIA, San Juan Citizen Alliance, and Westmoreland Coal, Inc.

  • PNM Owned Resources Third Party Resources

    __________________Total 350 MW

    ________________Total 410 MW

    Recommended Replacement Power Scenario Details

    16

    • Competitive RFP processes resulted in a cost-effective mix of resources owned by PNM and third-party providers

    • To manage the risks of integrating new battery storage technology, total storage capacity does not exceed 5% of peak load and the capacity at each location is limited to 40 MW

    280 MW Gas Peaking Units at San Juan$191M investmentin-service June 2022

    40 MW Storage$50M investment in-service June 2022

    30 MW Storage$37M investmentin-service June 2022

    300 MW Solar PPA + 40 MW Storage ESA$20M transmission investmentbegins June 2022

    50 MW Solar PPA + 20 MW Storage ESAbegins Jan 2022

    Note: All potential replacement power scenarios incorporated 140 MW wind energy PPA included in June 3, 2019 RPS Filing

  • Integration of Renewable Generation

    17

    2018 2020 2025 2035

    137 333 721

    1,137 356

    521

    681

    956

    Growing Solar and Wind Capacity Based on Recommended San Juan

    Replacement Scenario (MW)

    Solar Wind

    Integration of renewable generation requires T&D investment and addition of supporting backup capacity

    493

    854

    1,402

    1,955

    Note: Resources above and beyond the resources purchased to support the Facebook data center in New Mexico

  • Transmission and Renewable Expansion in New Mexico

    18

    Source: American Wind Energy Association, Oct. 2019New Mexico ranks:

    New Mexico added wind capacity at a higher growth rate than any other state in 2017 and currently has projects under construction or in advanced development that will more than double current installed capacity

    • 1,953 MW installed capacity• 1,227 MW under construction• 1,328 MW in advanced

    development

    Wind

    Solar

    Source: NREL

    New Mexico has abundant solar and wind resources Third-party development increases demand for transmission capacity

    Source: WINDExchange.energy.gov, Q3 2019in US wind capacity potential

    in US concentrating solar power technical potential

    Source: NREL, July 2012

  • PNM

  • PNM Load and Economic Conditions

    20

    Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers

    Economic indicators continue to be positive

    Weather and Load improved Q3 EPS by $0.05 • 14% increase in cooling degree days• Industrial, Residential growth partially offset by

    Commercial energy efficiency impacts

    PNMQ3 2019

    vs. Q3 2018

    YTD 2019vs.

    YTD 20182019E

    Total PNM Retail Load(1) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% – 1.0%PNM Avg. Customers 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% – 1.0%(1) Weather normalized, excludes Economy customers

    20-y

    r Avg

    20-y

    r Avg

    20-y

    r Avg

    20-y

    r Avg

    2014

    2014

    2014

    2014

    2015

    2015

    2015

    2015

    2016

    2016

    2016

    2016

    2017

    2017

    2017

    2017

    2018

    2018

    2018

    2018

    2019

    2019

    2019

    Q1 HeatingDegree-Days

    Q2 CoolingDegree-Days

    Q3 CoolingDegree-Days

    Q4 HeatingDegree-Days

    Weather Volatility

  • NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

    21

    District Name Term Ends Party

    District 1 Cynthia Hall 2020(1) Democrat

    District 2 Jefferson Byrd 2022(1) Republican

    District 3 Valerie Espinoza,Vice-Chairman 2020 Democrat

    District 4 Theresa Becenti-Aguilar,Chairman 2022(1) Democrat

    District 5 Stephen Fischmann 2022(1) Democrat

    NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas

    (1) Eligible for re-election to a second four-year term

    2019 Legislative Update – Appointed vs Elected:• A Senate Joint Resolution was passed in the New Mexico legislature to

    include a state constitutional amendment on the ballot in the next general election (2020) to move to a 3-member, appointed Commission

    • If the amendment is passed by a simple majority:• The legislature defines the nominating committee and the

    requirements for Commissioners• The terms for Commissioners elected in Districts 1 and 3 in 2020 will

    be for a two-year term ending in 2022; the terms for Commissioners in Districts 2, 4 and 5 already expire in 2022

    • Three appointed Commissioners would begin terms January 1, 2023

  • PNM Regulatory Agenda

    22

    Filing Action Timing Docket No.PNM:

    Western Spirit Transmission LineNMPRC approved acquisition on October 2, 2019; FERC approved acquisition on August 8, 2019 and incremental rate effective July 9, 2019

    Acquisition planned for mid-202119-00129-UT

    ER19-1824-000EC19-90-000

    Consolidated Application for San Juan (Abandonment, Securitizationand Replacement)

    PNM filed July 1, 2019; NMPRC bifurcated application on July 10, 2019

    NMPRC decision on abandonment/ securitization expected by April 2020, decision on replacement power expected by October 2020

    19-00018-UT19-00195-UT

    Appeal of 2015 General Rate Case to New Mexico Supreme Court

    New Mexico Supreme Court issued opinion May 16, 2019 affirming NMPRC decision but denying the disallowance of future Palo Verde decommissioning costs; full order was remanded back to the NMPRC

    No statutory timeline; oral arguments on remand held July 17, 2019

    15-00261-UTS-1-SC-36115

    Solar Direct ProgramPNM filed May 31, 2019 for approval of voluntary renewable program expected to begin March 31, 2021

    NMPRC decision expected in Q1 2020 19-00158-UT

    2020 Renewable Plan PNM filed June 3, 2019; hearings held October 24-25, 2019 NMPRC decision expected in Q1 2020 19-00159-UT

  • $68.59

    $76.12

    $106.17

    $115.42

    $137.51

    $50 $100 $150

    City of Seattle - (WA)Public Service Co of Colorado (CO)

    El Paso Electric Co (NM)El Paso Electric Co (TX)

    PacifiCorp (UT)Public Service Co of NM (NM)

    Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (MT)PacifiCorp (WY)

    City of Colorado Springs - (CO)NorthWestern Energy LLC - (MT)

    Avista Corp (ID)Avista Corp (WA)

    PacifiCorp (ID)Idaho Power Co (ID)

    Southern California Edison Co (CA)Sacramento Municipal Util Dist (CA)

    City of Tacoma - (WA)San Diego Gas & Electric Co (CA)

    Southwestern Public Service Co (NM)Montana-Dakota Utilities Co (WY)

    Tucson Electric Power Co (AZ)Portland General Electric Co (OR)

    PacifiCorp (OR)Regional Average Bill

    Black Hills Power, Inc. d/b/a (WY)PacifiCorp (WA)

    Pacific Gas & Electric Co. (CA)Nevada Power Co (NV)

    PacifiCorp (CA)US Average Bill

    City of San Antonio - (TX)Southwestern Electric Power Co (TX)

    Modesto Irrigation District (CA)Entergy Texas Inc. (TX)Salt River Project (AZ)

    Imperial Irrigation District (CA)LADWP (CA)

    Arizona Public Service Co (AZ)

    Comparison of Average Residential Bills(1)Western Region Average Bills by Utility

    PNM Bills Remain Below National and Regional Averages

    23(1)Based on U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Rate increases through June 2019

    - Current US Avg

    - Current Regional Avg

    - PNM 2019

    Customer bill impacts of increased investments are mitigated by:‘

    • Return of federal tax savings to customers

    • Load growth reduces per-customer cost of new investments

    • Energy Imbalance Market and renewable investments result in lower costs for fuel

  • TNMP

  • TNMP Load and Economic Conditions

    25

    Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers

    • Texas is the largest energy-producing state and the largest energy-consuming state in the nation(1)

    • ERCOT summer peak demand projected to grow by ~20% over next 10 years(2), extensive regional studies call for increased transmission infrastructure to support reliability and growth, particularly in West Texas

    TNMP Demand

    (1) Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) (2) Source: ERCOT 2019-2028 forecast

    TNMP Investment Plan by Region

    West Texas ~44%

    North/Central TX ~31%

    Gulf Coast ~25%● TNMP Service Area

    (1) Changes in load do not have a significant impacts on quarterly EPS; however, demand-based load growth is an indicator of increased infrastructure needs

    (2) Commercial and Industrial per-kw monthly peak billings; excludes retail Transmission customers

    TNMPQ3 2019

    vs. Q3 2018

    YTD 2019vs.

    YTD 20182019E

    Demand-Based Load(2) 5.4% 4.3% 4.0% – 5.0%TNMP Avg. End Users 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% – 2.0%

    Texas growth continues to lead nation

    Weather and Load improved Q3 EPS by $0.02 • 10% increase in cooling degree days• Strong demand-based load growth(1)

  • PUCT Commissioners and TNMP Regulatory Agenda

    26

    Commissioners are appointed by the Governor of Texas and confirmed by the Senate.

    Name Term Began Term Ends Party

    DeAnn Walker (Chair) Sept. 2017 Aug. 2021 Republican

    Arthur D’Andrea Nov. 2017 Aug. 2023 Republican

    Shelly Botkin June 2018 Sept. 2019 Republican

    PUCT Commissioners

    Filing Action Timing Docket No.

    General Rate Review Settlement approved December 2, 2018 Rates implemented January 2019 48401

    TCOS Filing Filed January 25, 2019 Rates implemented March 2019 49143

    TCOS Filing Filed July 23, 2019 Rates implemented September 2019 49785

    TNMP Regulatory Agenda

  • TNMP General Rate Review Settlement

    27

    Key Components of Approved Settlement

    Annual revenue increase $10.0M

    ROE (prior authorized 10.125%) 9.65%

    Capital structure (prior authorized 45% equity) 45% Equity

    Cost of debt 6.4%

    Increase to rate base $73M

    Return of excess deferred federal income taxes $11.0M

    • Settlement approved December 20, 2018• Rates implemented January 2019

  • TNMP Rates Comparable in Texas

    28

    $-

    $10

    $20

    $30

    $40

    $50

    $60

    Oncor Centerpoint TNMP AEP North AEP Central

    Residential Total Wires Charge for 1,000 kWh

    Current rate filing pending

    Current rate filing pending

    Current rate filing pending

    Current rate filing pending

    Source: TDU tariffs for retail delivery service effective September 1, 2019 and PUCT Filings Interchange.1Rates effective January 2019

    New Rates1

    Rates expected to be comparable to other IOUs after pending rate filings

  • Appendix

  • 2019 Consolidated Ongoing Earnings Guidance

    30

    $2.05 Consolidated EPS $2.11

    PNM$1.59 – $1.62

    TNMP$0.66 – $0.68

    Corp/Other($0.20) – ($0.19)

    2019 Earnings Guidance

  • 2019 - 2023 Potential Earnings Power

    31

    (1) Average rate base has been reduced by approximately $130M to represent ($0.05) of Earnings Potential for the lost equity return on Four Corners investment determined in the 2018 general rate review. 2022 and 2023 rate base also reflects the removal of $283M undepreciated SJGS investment upon its retirement in mid-2022 to be recovered through securitization.

    (2) Replacement Power includes $298M investment implemented mid-2022; $278M of generation investment and $20M of transmission investment.(3) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (4) PNM FERC in 2021-2023 reflects a return of 8%-9% to account for Western Spirit investment recovered through incremental rates.(5) Consists primarily of decommissioning/reclamation trust income (net of fees/taxes), AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 (prior to retirement).(6) TNMP earnings include additional recovery for Energy Efficiency, along with items excluded from rates (primarily AFUDC) and interest savings from the refinancing of existing debt. (7) Corporate/Other includes the earnings impacts associated with short and intermediate term bank debt and the 50% equity interest in NMRD.(8) Equity Financing Plans to fund capital growth reflect financing alternatives, including ATM Program or block sale of up to $290M (dilution impacts

    assume $50M issued in 2020, $90M to $140M in 2021, $50M in 2022 and $50M in 2023), and $300M mandatory convertibles beginning mid-2021.

    This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of 2020 - 2023 earnings guidance.

    Allowed Return / Equity Ratio

    2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint

    2020 Earnings Potential

    2021 Earnings Potential

    2022 Earnings Potential

    2023 Earnings Potential

    AvgRate Base

    Return EPSAvg Rate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPSAvgRate Base

    EPS

    PNM Retail(1) 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 8.9% $1.37 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.4 B $1.48 $2.4 B $1.48

    San JuanReplacement(2)

    9.575% / 50% $150 M $0.09 $280 M $0.17

    PNM Renewables(3) 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08 $130 M $0.07

    PNM FERC(4) 10% / ~50% $275 M 6.9% $0.12 $330 M $0.15-$0.20 $530 M $0.26-$0.30 $740 M $0.37-$0.42 $780 M $0.39-$0.44

    Items not in Rates(5) $0.04 ($0.04)-($0.02) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01) ($0.03)-($0.01)Total PNM $2.7 B $1.60 $2.9 B $1.64-$1.71 $3.2 B $1.84-$1.90 $3.5 B $1.99-$2.06 $3.6 B $2.08-$2.15

    TNMP(6) 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.67 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.5 B $0.84 $1.6 B $0.89 $1.9 B $1.02

    Corporate/Other(7) ($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.21)-($0.19) ($0.19)-($0.17) ($0.23)-($0.21)

    Equity Financing Plans(8) ($0.01)-$0.00 ($0.10)-($0.09) ($0.20)-($0.19) ($0.24)-($0.23)

    Total PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.08 $4.2 B $2.15 - $2.25 $4.7 B $2.37 - $2.46 $5.1 B $2.49 - $2.59 $5.6 B $2.63 - $2.73

  • Liquidity as of October 25, 2019

    32

    PNM TNMP

    PNMR

    PNM Resources

    Consolidated

    PNMR Develop-

    mentCorporate

    /Other

    Financing Capacity(1): (In millions)

    Revolving credit facilities $440.0 $75.0 $40.0 $300.0 $855.0

    As of 10/25/19:

    Short-term debt and LOCbalances $2.5 $15.4 $38.9 $84.1 $140.9

    Remaining availability 437.5 59.6 1.1 215.9 714.1

    Invested cash 20.5 - - 0.9 21.4

    Total Available Liquidity $458.0 $59.6 $1.1 $216.8 $735.5(1) Excludes intercompany debt and term loans

  • San Juan and Four Corners Generating StationsOwnership and Participants

    33

    Unit TotalMWPNM MW

    PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership

    1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

    4 507 392 77.3%City of Farmington 8.5% (43 MW)Los Alamos County 7.2% (36.5 MW)Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.0% (35.5 MW)

    Total 847 562

    Unit TotalMWPNM MW

    PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership

    4 770 100 13%Arizona Public Service Company 70% (539 MW)Salt River Project 10% (77 MW)Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW)

    5 770 100 13%Arizona Public Service Company 70% (539 MW)Salt River Project 10% (77 MW)Tucson Electric Power 7% (54 MW)

    Total 1,540 200

    San Juan Generating Station

    Four Corners Generating Station

  • Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Ownership and Leases

    34

    MW Owned vs. Leased

    Lease Expiration• Unit 1: January 15, 2015; exercised option to extend leases to 2023• Unit 2: January 15, 2016; exercised right to purchase 3 leases in 2016 and option to extend one lease to 2024

    Yearly Payment Amounts Total PV Unit 1 - $16.5M Total PV Unit 2 - $1.6M

    Unit 1

    Owned 2.3% 30 MW

    Leased 7.9% 104 MW

    Total 10.2% 134 MW

    Unit 2

    Owned 9.5% 124 MW

    Leased 0.7% 10 MW

    Total 10.2% 134 MW

    Unit 3

    Owned 10.2% 134 MW

    Leased 0% 0 MW

    Total 10.2% 134 MW

  • Battery Storage Integration

    35

    The following slides come to life with Augmented Reality (AR) powered by RealityX2

    This new technology runs in your smartphone or tablet and overlays a digital/virtual world on top of your physical reality.

    Experience AR for yourself by visiting the App store to download and open the RealityX2 app, then pointing your device at the images contained in these slides to learn more about

    battery storage and plans for the integration of battery storage at PNM.

  • The Case for Battery Storage

    36

    • Historically, large fossil fuel and nuclear plants were constructed to meet a constantly growing energy demand with 24/7 reliability

    • Battery storage provides a solution for an increasing amount of intermittent renewables resources without sacrificing reliability

    Utilize the app to visualize how energy flows under the “old” and “new” ways

  • Battery Technology

    37

    • Battery storage technology has evolved from lead acid batteries to lithium ion batteries in a variety of applications, including utility-scale energy storage

    • Flow batteries represent the next evolution of battery technology

    Utilize the app to see inside each battery and hear about each technology

  • Utility Integration and PNM Plans

    38

    • The PNM Prosperity Project was an early pioneer for grid-connected battery storage

    • PNM has proposed plans for future integration of battery storage through purchase power agreements and utility-owned facilities

    Utilize the app to tour the PNM Prosperity Project and hear our plans and considerations for future battery integration

    Slide Number 1Contact Information and Safe Harbor StatementSlide Number 3PNM Resources OverviewPNM Resources Strategic Direction and Financial Goals2019 – 2023 Investment Plan2019 - 2023 Potential Earnings PowerEarnings GrowthDividend GrowthLiquidity and Debt Maturity OutlookSlide Number 11New Mexico Energy PolicyExit from Coal Generation, Emission ReductionsSan Juan Abandonment, Securitization and Replacement PowerEnergy Transition Act Applicability - Intervenor PositionsRecommended Replacement Power Scenario DetailsIntegration of Renewable GenerationTransmission and Renewable Expansion in New MexicoSlide Number 19PNM Load and Economic ConditionsNMPRC Commissioners and DistrictsPNM Regulatory AgendaPNM Bills Remain Below National and Regional AveragesSlide Number 24TNMP Load and Economic ConditionsPUCT Commissioners and TNMP Regulatory AgendaTNMP General Rate Review SettlementTNMP Rates Comparable in TexasSlide Number 292019 Consolidated Ongoing Earnings Guidance 2019 - 2023 Potential Earnings Power Liquidity as of October 25, 2019San Juan and Four Corners Generating Stations�Ownership and ParticipantsPalo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Ownership and LeasesBattery Storage IntegrationThe Case for Battery StorageBattery TechnologyUtility Integration and PNM Plans