eelco van beek marjolijn haasnoot adaptive delta management how to deal with the uncertainties...
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Eelco van Beek
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Adaptive Delta Management
How to deal with the uncertaintiesinvolved in Sea Level Rise?The Dutch approach
European-American – Transatlantic Solutions to Sea Level Rise Adaptation
Norfolk, VA, 30 October 2013
Adaptive Delta Management – What’s new?
What is not new?• we have for centuries adapted our delta to
changing conditions• but always in response to (near) disasters
New is:• we now want to anticipate the change (SLR-CC) or
consider transitions• but these changes are uncertain• this requires new approaches and methods for
problem analysis, policy analysis and management planning
Dealing with ‘fundamental uncertainties’ is the key issue of ADM:• “what to do and when to do it?”• “not too much, not too little”• “not too early, nor too late”
Sea Level Rise (SLR) – one of the uncertainties
Uncertainties we face in anticipating changes• SLR• Other climate change effects (e.g. higher peak discharges
rivers)• Socio-economic changes• Subsidence (and our ability to stop or decrease the rate)• Perspective of society on how to manage the system• Events
SLR is actually the most certain of these uncertainties• is taken place, also without climate change• accelerated SLR, how fast?
Scenario approach• integrated scenario’s• tendency to focus on ‘the worst credible’
Perpectives in views and management stylesBased on Cultural Theory
Sea level rise: many scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1900 2000 2050 2100
Observations
IPCC low
IPCC high
WB21 Low
WB21 High
KNMI06 Low
KNMI06 High
KNMI06 + Th Exp + GL High
KNMI06 + Th Exp + GL + WAIS High
MAX
Al Gore, inconvenient truth
Before long The Netherlands
will look like this
Now look who is talking….
He didn’t mention that the Netherlands has the highest safety levels in the world:
1 : 10,000 years for flooding from the sea1 : 1,250 years for flooding from rivers
7
Now we had a problem:
The risk of climate change / sea level rise is not the flood hazard itself
but
The image that the Netherlands might not be safe anymore for investments
Now that is a major risk!!
2nd Delta commission
First finding:Scientists do not agree on magnitude of Climate change and sea level rise
Asked basically four questions1. What is the maximum plausible SLR between now and 2100? (130cm)
2. Are we able to defend the Netherlands to that rise? (YES)
3. What will it cost? (1 B-EURO/yr)
4. Can we pay this? (YES)
OK, than that is what we will do, discussion closed
Working with transient scenario’s
• Classical approach: end-point scenario’s (e.g. 2040, 2100)
• But:• society changes also (perspectives, beliefs)• society learns and with that their response changes
• Events are important triggers for changes• events in the Netherlands (near floods)• Al Gore• Katrina and Sandy
• Wait or take action now?• Answer: combine the two• Use transient scenario’s in
which events and changing
perspectives are included
Adaptation Tipping Points (ATP)
Classical approach: What if…(climate) changes according to scenario x?
Tipping point approach:How much (climate) change can we cope with?
When will this occur? sell-by date of tipping point for each scenario
tipping point • Spatial limits• Technical limits• Financial limits• Socially unacceptable• Governmental unacceptable
EEA, 2013
KNMI W 2050KNMI G 2100
Example ATP, Rhine Meuse Estuary
Determining ATP’s – Sell by dates
ATP depends on:• scenario’s (e.g. SLR, socio-economic developments)• occurrence of events (which are stochastic)
> need to consider multiple transient scenario’s• perspectives
Many combinations are possible• computer can generate range of ATP
Moment of an ATP:Sell-by date policy actions based on ensemble of futures
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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90
100
No policy
DH1000 DH1.5 RfRl RfRs CopU FloatH FaC Mound No policy
SmallShip
MediumShip
SmallDredge
LargeDredge
yea
r
EGA all scenariosIND all scenarios
flood management policy options low flow policy options
HIE No climate changeHIE G scenario
HIE Wp scenario
Median values
HIE all scenarios
Minimum value
Maximum value
Upper quantile
Lower quantile
DH500
Results of all Scenarios for HIE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
No policy
DH1000 DH1.5 RfRl RfRs CopU FloatH FaC Mound No policy
SmallShip
MediumShip
SmallDredge
LargeDredge
yea
r
EGA all scenariosIND all scenarios
flood management policy options low flow policy options
HIE No climate changeHIE G scenario
HIE Wp scenario
Median values
HIE all scenarios
Minimum value
Maximum value
Upper quantile
Lower quantile
DH500
Results of all Scenarios for HIE
Example: Waas case
Adaptation pathwaysSequence of policy actions to achieve targets under changing conditions
Adaptation pathwaysSequence of policy actions to achieve targets under changing conditions
Application in Delta Programme in the NetherlandsExperiencing pathways in a game-setting
http://deltagame.deltares.nl
2
Adaptation PATHWAYS provide insights into options, lock-in possibilities, and path dependencies.
Some lessons learned
4MONITORING plan and CONTINGENCY actions help to stay on track. Not for extremes. Autonomous adaptation of stakeholders can be important.
5 Pathways can be developed based on EXPERT JUDGEMENT or/and on MODELLING results.
1Adaptation TIPPING POINTS help in assembling paths. However, the sell-by date interval can be large.
3KEEP IT SIMPLE: screen or group actions (n=< 20). Concretize actions. One pathways map for one objective/area.
