Efectos de los cambios ambientales y económicos

globales en la resiliencia del Nexo en Brasil

Dr. Pablo Salas

Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource

Governance (C-EENRG)

Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge

Introducción

BRIDGE 2016/2019 – Proyecto de Investigación

Building Resilience In a Dynamic Global

Economy: Complexity across scales in the

food- water- energy nexus.

NEXO Cambio

Ambiental

Global

Cambio

Económico

Global

Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil

Potenciales anomalías climáticas futuras en Brasil

Source: CMIP5 climate data

Arriba: Chatham House (2018), ‘resourcetrade.earth’, http://resourcetrade.earth/

Abajo: E3ME, based on data from Eurostat, OECD, national statistics, Asian

Development Bank, UN prodcom

Mercado global de productos agrícolas

Top 5 trade flows Top 5 exporters Top 5 importers

Porcentajes de las exportaciones correspondientes a productos agrícolas y alimentos, por país

Nexo en Brasil: Cuatro grandes desafios

1. Agua y Energía: Dependencia de la hidroelectricidad

2. Energía y Alimentación: Políticas de biocombustibles y competencia

por los alimentos

3. Agua y Alimentación: Cambio climático, cambios hidrológicos y su

efecto en la agricultura

4. Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo

y deforestación

Carne de Vacuno Carne de Ave Carne de Cerdo

La industria global de carne esta cambiando, especialmente en países en desarrollo

Producción de carne a nivel global

Data: FAO Stat 2016

4 - Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos

en el uso de suelo y deforestación

Arima EY, Richards P, Walker R, & Caldas MM (2011). Statistical confirmation of

indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ Res Lett 6(2).

Statistical evidence: Soybeans buy out pastures, cattle farmers move into the forest

Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación

- Aumenta la demanda por carne en China debido al aumento del ingreso

- Se importa soya para alimentar los animales

- Brasil produce soya para exportar

- Productores de soya desplazan a los ganaderos

- Ganaderos deforestan las zonas de Amazonia y Cerrado

- La deforestación intensifica el cambio climático a nivel local, afectando la

disponibilidad de agua

Brasil

Productores de soya

desplazan a los ganaderos

Ganaderos producen

deforestación

China

Crece la demanda

por carne

Amazonia y Cerrado

Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación

https://www.ceenrg.landecon.cam.ac.uk/publications/working-papers-1

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Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil

Oficinas de

Transferencia

Tecnológica

(OTT)

Investigadores

INVESTIGACIÓN INNOVACIÓN

Nexo

Sector

Privado Tomadores de

Decisión

Creando un Nexo resiliente en Brasil

Obrigado

pas80@cam.ac.uk

Macroeconomics

(Lead: Hector Pollitt)

Building Resilience In a

Dynamic Global Economy

Biophysical modelling,

Climate change

(Lead: Neil Edwards)

Land-use, energy, diffusion of

technology, emissions

(Lead: J-F Mercure)

WP2 Quantitative modelling

Environmental law,

policy, policy

engagement

(Lead: Jorge Vinuales)

WP3 Policy Engagement

Pilot action projects,

Dissemination, public engagement

(Lead: Baltazar Guerra)

WP4-5 Quantitative modelling

Linking UK-Brazil

technology transfer offices

(Lead: Pablo Salas)

WP6 Technology transfer

Policy sphere

BRIDGE:

Nuestra plataforma de modelamiento integrada

Transport Transport technology

substitution model

Agriculture Competing uses

of land

Industry Technological change in

Industrial processes

Power Power sector technology

substitution model

Energy Prices /

Resource costs

Energy Resources Natural resource use and

depletion

Global Economy Macroeconometric model of

the global economy

Co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

Global warming Precipitation

anomalies Other climate

impacts GHG Emissions

Carbon cycle model

simulation

Climate System Climate model

simulation

Plant growth Land productivity

Policy

assumptions

Policy Assumptions Economic feedbacks GHG Emissions

Environmental Changes GHG Concentrations

Land productivity

Our integrated Science-Policy BRIDGE

Policy-

Makers,

Stakeholders

Policy

experts

International

Lawyers

Perspectives

Modellers,

scientists,

economists,

etc

Cross-sectoral

Policy

formulation

Multidismensional

Outcomes, impacts,

within uncertainty Science-policy

dialogue

Mercure, Pollitt, Vinuales, Bassi & Edwards, Global Env. Change 2016

LINKS 2015 – Networking Grant

Linkages between energy, food and water

consumption for Brazil in the context of climate

change mitigation strategies.

Cambios indirectos en el uso de suelo y deforestación

‘Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food

security and the environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious

concerns is loss of Amazonian forest through indirect land use change . […]’

IOP PUBLISHING ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS

Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011) 024010 (7pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/2/024010

Statistical confirmation of indirect landuse change in the Brazilian Amazon

Eugenio Y Arima1,4, Peter Richards2, Robert Walker2 andMarcellus M Caldas3

1 Department of Geography and the Environment, The University of Texas, GRG 334,

Mailcode A3100, Austin, TX 78712, USA2 Department of Geography, Michigan State University, 116 Geography Building,

East Lansing, MI 48824, USA3 Department of Geography, Kansas State University, 118 Seaton Hall, Manhattan, KS 66506,

USA

E-mail: arima@austin.utexas.edu

Received 21 December 2010

Accepted for publication 3 May 2011

Published 24 May 2011

Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/6/024010

Abstract

Expansion of global demand for soy products and biofuel poses threats to food security and the

environment. One environmental impact that has raised serious concerns is loss of Amazonian

forest through indirect land use change (ILUC), whereby mechanized agriculture encroaches on

existing pastures, displacing them to the frontier. This phenomenon has been hypothesized by

many researchers and projected on the basis of simulation for the Amazonian forests of Brazil.

It has not yet been measured statistically, owing to conceptual difficulties in linking distal land

cover drivers to the point of impact. The present article overcomes this impasse with a spatial

regression model capable of linking the expansion of mechanized agriculture in settled

agricultural areas to pasture conversions on distant, forest frontiers. In an application for a

recent period (2003–2008), the model demonstrates that ILUC is significant and of considerable

magnitude. Specifically, a 10% reduction of soy in old pasture areas would have decreased

deforestation by as much as 40% in heavily forested counties of the Brazilian Amazon.

Evidently, the voluntary moratorium on primary forest conversions by Brazilian soy farmers has

failed to stop the deforestation effects of expanding soy production. Thus, environmental policy

in Brazil must pay attention to ILUC, which can complicate efforts to achieve its REDD targets.

Keywords: soy, cattle, deforestation, Amazonia, biofuel

1. Introduction

Brazil’s commitment in 2008 to reduce deforestation in the

interest of the UN’s Reducing Emissions from Deforestation

and Forest Degradation (REDD) program has raised hopes for

a new era of sustainable relations between coupled natural

and human systems in Amazonia (Nepstad et al 2009).

Nevertheless, deforestation continues here, with the expansion

of pastures for cattle ranching accounting for the lion’s share

of forest loss (Naylor et al 2005, Margulis 2004, Walker

et al 2009a). Recently, some have called attention to the

4 Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.

impacts of soy production, and direct encroachments of soy

fields into the Amazonian forest have been observed (Brown

et al 2005, Morton et al 2006, Hecht and Mann 2008, Walker

et al 2009b). The present research letter considers the threat

posed by soy, and mechanized agriculture more generally,

which arises by virtue of indirect land use change, or ILUC.

ILUC takes place when agricultural activities displaced from

one region are reconstituted in another one (Searchinger et al

2008, Lapola et al 2010). In such a situation, deforestation

at particular locations occurs partly due to events far away,

a circumstance that complicates measurement. This letter

uses spatial regression modeling to provide the first statistical

1748-9326/11/024010+07$33.00 © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd Printed in the UK1

Arima EY, Richards P, Walker R, & Caldas MM (2011). Statistical confirmation of

indirect land use change in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ Res Lett 6(2).

Balances de Soya entre Brasil y China

Data: FAO Stat 2016

4 - Agua, Energía y Alimentación: Cambios indirectos

en el uso de suelo y deforestación