effects of immigration on age structure and fertility of the u.s
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Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S. David Pieper Departments of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, & Social Sciences, City College of San Francisco APPAM Conference Maastricht 19 Feb 2010. Background. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S.David PieperDepartments of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, &Social Sciences, City College of San FranciscoAPPAM ConferenceMaastricht19 Feb 2010
Background U.S. has more immigrants than any other
country 13% of population was born outside the
country Age structure and fertility effects on social
security, labor markets, etc. Conventional wisdom
Conventional Wisdom “International migration does not play a major role
in the demography of aging” “Immigrants themselves age” “Initial labor migration often becomes family
migration” (National Research Council 2001: 44)
Over half of U.S. residents surveyed believe immigrants make up 25% or more of the population (vs. actual figure of about half that) (Massey 2007)
Stock vs Flow Stock of immigrants is the existing
population living in the U.S. Flow is the stream of new immigrants
arriving each year The stock ages each year, but they also have
children The flow has very different characteristics
than the stock
Data and Methods American Community Survey 2007
Large sample size Individual micro data
Figure 1Native-Born US Popluation 2007
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
Ag
e
% of TotalSource: American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Female
Male
Figure 2Foreign-Born US Population 2007
10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
Ag
e
% of TotalSource: American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Female
Male
Figure 3Foreign Born as Percentage of Total U.S. Popluation 2007
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
% of Total PopulationSource: American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Female
Male
Ag
e
Figure 4Current Year Migrants as Percentage of Total Foreign Born U.S. Population 2007
25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
% of Total Foreign-Born PopulationSource: American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Female
Male
Ag
e
Figure 5Current Year Foreign-Born Migrants to the U.S. 2007
125000 100000 75000 50000 25000 0 25000 50000 75000 100000 125000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
Number of Current Year Foreign-Born Migrants 2007Source: American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Female
Male
Ag
e
Table 1Fertility Rates, U.S. 2007
Age Total U.S. Native Born Foreign BornCurrent Year
Migrants0 to 5 Years
in U.S.
15-19 0.028 0.027 0.039 0.022 0.037
20-24 0.092 0.089 0.109 0.047 0.091
25-29 0.118 0.114 0.134 0.062 0.125
30-34 0.102 0.096 0.121 0.057 0.112
35-39 0.055 0.050 0.075 0.047 0.081
40-44 0.016 0.014 0.024 0.021 0.029
45-49 0.004 0.004 0.005 0.015 0.008
50-54 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.007
Total Fertility Rate 2.07 1.97 2.54 1.35 2.45
Source: Author’s computations using data from American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
Conclusions Immigrants more likely to be young adults Public perceptions or misperceptions about
the number of immigrants may come from age structure and fertility patterns
Immigrants have higher fertility U.S. population is growing due to both
immigration itself and higher fertility among immigrants
Flow and stock of immigrants differ
Future Research Trends over time Patterns over space Country of origin Ethnicity Socioeconomic variables Comparisons to other countries