efficiency as a means to address india’s vulnerability to electricity shortages: a case study
DESCRIPTION
1. Efficiency as a means to address India’s vulnerability to electricity shortages: A case study Jayant A. Sathaye Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley, CA 7 March 2006 World Bank Energy Week, Washington DC Work supported by the US Agency for International Development, India. 2. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Efficiency as a means to address Indias vulnerability to electricity shortages: A case study
Jayant A. SathayeLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryBerkeley, CA
7 March 2006World Bank Energy Week, Washington DCWork supported by the US Agency for International Development, India1
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ContentsElectricity situation in India: BackgroundEnergy efficiency goals and motivationLoad shedding -- Maharashtra Case StudyEvaluation of economic benefitsConsumer Reduced electricity billsUtility company Lower fuel costs and higher revenueGovernment Lower subsidy payments and higher tax revenueConclusions2
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India Electricity Sector: BackgroundConsumption -- 400 kWh per capita (2004-05)Industrial 35.6% Residential -- 24.8%, and commercial -- 8.1%, Agricultural 22.9%Continued deficit supply:Peak power deficit 11.6% and Energy deficit 8 % in 2004-05Severe aggregate technical and commercial T&D lossAbout 50% in 2004-05Assuming 25% technical loss -- 100 billion kWh or about $6 billion a yearFive year plan targets have not been met:9th Plan (1997-02) Target -- 40,245 MW new capacity, realized addition was about 21,000 MW Private sector target: 17,589 MW, realized addition of 6,735 MW10th plan (2002-07) Target 41,010 MW, revised down to 36,956 MW, commissioned: 13,.416 MWDeficits likely to continue in the near term3
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Maharashtra State Electricity Board (MSEB) Capacity Deficit Annual average (2002-03) (7836 GWh load shedding over 20 hours a day; 1376 MW average evening peak load shedding )
4
Chart1
7017.2386998.852149.97534597.133431.53291751.382
6920.2436904.296114.65344584.659431.45751711.741
6901.566885.351105.75484578.966433.24381707.182
6936.4736919.993106.51784576.071433.77671737.626
7087.3197063.581152.88494587.112433.56441818.47
7738.0077568.369441.77124636.448434.06991915.456
8507.2387820.022624.22194682.96439.80411899.869
8566.4947788.704588.75074694.386440.13971911.195
8655.5187792.351546.65754690.602439.95481994.63
8503.8897547.553479.85344678.292434.57671864.456
8176.3257286.81321.17674657.243429.68361826.248
7961.3357131.954222.50414634.207428.79181806.83
7804.7417022.586159.99594625.197426.1371774.641
7666.3866919147.0524615.039425.28631700.697
7630.2646904.07139.86034612.168425.1261692.844
7714.5266982.188154.53564611426.54111753.236
7976.6417209.362222.69594627.445427.40141884.964
8250.3827449.181389.85754658.04428.83151905.085
8871.6467942.303877.10694681.004428.94111877.059
9248.5788296.5541296.8374686.966427.91641783.934
8923.2698094.2931075.5534692.915429.77671777.685
8550.3487839.468792.48084684.119432.27941827.045
7837.3447604.885512.72474660.085431.98361903.041
7321.537200.125250.02474631.024432.95341812.647
Demand
Supply
MSEB Hydro
MSEBthermal
MSEBgas
Central Sector
Hour
Demand/Supply
MSEB dispatch
Sheet1
HourDemandSupplyLSMSEB HydroMSEBthermalMSEBgasCentral Sector
17017.2386998.85218.386149.97534597.133431.53291751.382-50.19452
26920.2436904.29615.947114.65344584.659431.45751711.741-43.48493
36901.566885.35116.209105.75484578.966433.24381707.182-42.85069
46936.4736919.99316.48106.51784576.071433.77671737.626-48.12603
57087.3197063.58123.738152.88494587.112433.56441818.47-53.93973
67738.0077568.369169.638441.77124636.448434.06991915.456-122.7041
78507.2387820.022687.216624.22194682.96439.80411899.869-154.7082
88566.4947788.704777.79588.75074694.386440.13971911.195-136.9096
98655.5187792.351863.167546.65754690.602439.95481994.63-103.7562
108503.8897547.553956.336479.85344678.292434.57671864.456-73.94521
118176.3257286.81889.515321.17674657.243429.68361826.248-36.29041
127961.3357131.954829.381222.50414634.207428.79181806.83-23.69178
137804.7417022.586782.155159.99594625.197426.1371774.641-20.95617
147666.3866919747.386147.0524615.039425.28631700.697-15.55205
157630.2646904.07726.194139.86034612.168425.1261692.844-18.96301
167714.5266982.188732.338154.53564611426.54111753.236-21.62603
177976.6417209.362767.279222.69594627.445427.40141884.964-31.40137
188250.3827449.181801.201389.85754658.04428.83151905.085-50.63425
198871.6467942.303929.343877.10694681.004428.94111877.059-60.65342
209248.5788296.554952.0241296.8374686.966427.91641783.934-82.78904
218923.2698094.293828.9761075.5534692.915429.77671777.685-99.69726
228550.3487839.468710.88792.48084684.119432.27941827.045-84.79863
237837.3447604.885232.459512.72474660.085431.98361903.041-78.51644
247321.537200.125121.405250.02474631.024432.95341812.647-54.83562
01-02dispatch
6768.4496768.44989.928764633.43837.80822420.3096-13.536991573.967
6673.3186673.31873.553424617.01437.14795418.8274-6.4657541520.858
6658.9346659.67766.161644615.73435.99726420.5918-8.7178081513.022
6700.4446700.44466.542474615.61636.09315421.6685-14.736991546.129
6836.0466841.62589.238364626.0635.56165420.9069-14.298631650.323
7308.6937382.192297.03294691.69636.47397420.2329-93.887671770.005
7740.48156.121559.60274754.91237.94521426.1836-142.62471820.159
7766.2668219.449618.28494771.26336.29041425.6384-126.36711790.066
7808.1658291.021605.09864770.11535.41918428.2904-94.150691877.008
7577.8638077.49544.13424753.86334.77808423.2959-66.558911757.151
7302.6997762.918358.17544731.39733.98082418.3096-34.057531728.422
7073.7237510.099222.89594707.42733.50137418.0219-19.493151674.027
6928.8287351.395143.48774693.12332.96164415.1315-17.95891627.808
6812.0247218.463122.27674677.00332.59726413.6466-15.747941552.603
6792.3267185.6111.82474679.76732.26849413.3315-14.950681542.236
6865.4277261.534129.35074682.65232.7589413.3014-16.717811592.907
7096.9457505.699225.64934691.7533.2413.4493-29.246571705.943
7374.5187791.417396.02194719.41735.38356415.7836-49.361641760.469
7865.3298381.942814.94524743.82536.98082416.3507-62.701371792.43
8246.9738774.6631283.314743.24137.72877414.3041-94.93151674.964
8029.4038473.3751050.1314753.0339.18082417.3589-109.84111661.71
7713.1538110.734695.73434746.74539.40822419.3178-90.345211723.521
7398.2917489.507375.10144717.89138.50685419.1699-71.098631777.962
6977.7186982.102160.45484683.9738.38082421.4575-31.830141642.726
MSEBsupply
MSEBdemand
MSEBhydro
MSEBthermal
DPC
URAN
TEC
CENTRAL
HOUR
MW
01-02 dispatch
02-03dispatch
7229.2557266.027210.02194560.8280442.7562-86.852061928.797
7135.2747167.167155.75344552.3040444.0877-80.504111902.625
7111.7677143.444145.34794542.1970445.8959-76.983561901.342
7139.5427172.501146.49314536.5260445.8849-81.515071929.123
7291.1157333.014216.53154548.1650446.2219-93.580821986.616
7828.0448093.822586.50964581.20447.9069-151.52062060.907
7899.6448858.356688.84114611.0080453.4247-166.79181979.578
7811.1438913.54559.21644617.510454.6411-147.45212032.323
7776.5379020.014488.21644611.0880451.6192-113.36162112.252
7517.2448930.288415.57264602.7210445.8575-81.33151971.762
7270.928589.731284.17814583.0880441.0575-38.523291924.074
7190.1848412.572222.11234560.9860439.5616-27.890411939.633
7116.3458258.088176.50414557.2710437.1425-23.953421921.474
7025.9768114.31171.82744553.0740436.926-15.356161848.792
7015.8138074.929167.89594544.570436.9206-22.975341843.452
7098.9488167.518179.72064539.3480439.7808-26.534251913.564
7321.7788447.584219.74254563.140441.3534-33.556162063.986
7523.8448709.348383.69314596.6630441.8795-51.906852049.701
8019.2779361.348939.26854618.1840441.5315-58.605481961.688
8346.1349722.4931310.3644630.690441.5288-70.646581892.904
8159.1849373.1621100.9754632.80442.1945-89.553421893.66
7965.7848989.962889.22744621.4930445.2411-79.252051930.57
7811.4798185.181650.3484602.2790444.7973-85.934252028.121
7422.5327660.959339.59454578.080444.4493-77.841091982.567
MSEBsupply
MSEBdemand
MSEBhydro
MSEBthermal
DPC
URAN
TEC
CENTRAL
Hour
MW
02-03 dispatch
correct data
Year 01 - 02
HourMSEBsupplyMSEBdemandMSEBhydroMSEBthermalDPCURANTECCENTRAL
16768.4496768.44989.928764633.43837.80822420.3096-13.536991573.9676678.520246678.520240497.5787%0
26673.3186673.31873.553424617.01437.14795418.8274-6.4657541520.8586599.764586599.764580493.8497%0
36658.9346659.67766.161644615.73435.99726420.5918-8.7178081513.0226593.515366592.772360.743483.7677%0.743
46700.4446700.44466.542474615.61636.09315421.6685-14.736991546.1296633.901536633.901530472.0577%0
56836.0466841.62589.238364626.0635.56165420.9069-14.298631650.3236752.386646746.807645.579491.3897%5.579
67308.6937382.192297.03294691.69636.47397420.2329-93.887671770.0057085.15917011.660173.499711.6310%73.499
77740.48156.121559.60274754.91237.94521426.1836-142.62471820.1597596.51837180.7973415.721702.2359%415.721
87766.2668219.449618.28494771.26336.29041425.6384-126.36711790.0667601.16417147.9811453.183694.0918%453.183
97808.1658291.021605.09864770.11535.41918428.2904-94.150691877.0087685.92247203.0664482.856728.9939%482.856
107577.8638077.49544.13424753.86334.77808423.2959-66.558911757.1517533.35587033.7288499.627852.79811%499.627
117302.6997762.918358.17544731.39733.98082418.3096-34.057531728.4227404.74266944.5236460.219826.81311%460.219
127073.7237510.099222.89594707.42733.50137418.0219-19.493151674.0277287.20316850.8271436.376902.47312%436.376
136928.8287351.395143.48774693.12332.96164415.1315-17.95891627.8087207.90736785.3403422.567906.69312%422.567
146812.0247218.463122.27674677.00332.59726413.6466-15.747941552.6037096.18636689.7473406.439895.84712%406.439
156792.3267185.6111.82474679.76732.26849413.3315-14.950681542.2367073.77536680.5013393.274889.32912%393.274
166865.4277261.534129.35074682.65232.7589413.3014-16.717811592.9077132.18336736.0763396.107905.98412%396.107
177096.9457505.699225.64934691.7533.2413.4493-29.246571705.9437280.04976871.2957408.754941.88513%408.754
187374.5187791.417396.02194719.41735.38356415.7836-49.361641760.4697395.39516978.4961416.899917.93112%416.899
197865.3298381.942814.94524743.82536.98082416.3507-62.701371792.437566.99687050.3838516.613979.40612%516.613
208246.9738774.6631283.314743.24137.72877414.3041-94.93151674.9647491.3536963.663527.69947.8311%527.69
218029.4038473.3751050.1314753.0339.18082417.3589-109.84111661.717423.2446979.272443.972899.78711%443.972
227713.1538110.734695.73434746.74539.40822419.3178-90.345211723.5217414.99977017.4187397.581879.22811%397.581
237398.2917489.507375.10144717.89138.50685419.1699-71.098631777.9627114.40567023.189691.216695.6749%91.2167253.299
246977.7186982.102160.45484683.9738.38082421.4575-31.830141642.7266821.64726817.26324.384678.85710%4.3842647454.135
year 02 - 03HourMSEBsupplyMSEBdemandMSEBhydroMSEBthermalDPCURANTECCENTRAL
17229.2557266.027210.02194560.8280442.7562-86.852061928.7977056.00517019.233136.77236.772
27135.2747167.167155.75344552.3040444.0877-80.504111902.6257011.41366979.520631.89331.893
37111.7677143.444145.34794542.1970445.8959-76.983561901.3426998.09616966.419131.67731.677
47139.5427172.501146.49314536.5260445.8849-81.515071929.1237026.00796993.048932.95932.959
57291.1157333.014216.53154548.1650446.2219-93.580821986.6167116.48257074.583541.89941.899
67828.0448093.822586.50964581.20447.9069-151.52062060.9077507.31247241.5344265.778265.778
77899.6448858.356688.84114611.0080453.4247-166.79181979.5788169.51497210.8029958.712958.712
87811.1438913.54559.21644617.510454.6411-147.45212032.3238354.32367251.92661102.3971102.397
97776.5379020.014488.21644611.0880451.6192-113.36162112.2528531.79767288.32061243.4771243.477
107517.2448930.288415.57264602.7210445.8575-81.33151971.7628514.71547101.67141413.0441413.044
117270.928589.731284.17814583.0880441.0575-38.523291924.0748305.55296986.74191318.8111318.811
127190.1848412.572222.11234560.9860439.5616-27.890411939.6338190.45976968.07171222.3881222.388
137116.3458258.088176.50414557.2710437.1425-23.953421921.4748081.58396939.84091141.7431141.743
147025.9768114.31171.82744553.0740436.926-15.356161848.7927942.48266854.14861088.3341088.334
157015.8138074.929167.89594544.570436.9206-22.975341843.4527907.03316847.91711059.1161059.116
167098.9488167.518179.72064539.3480439.7808-26.534251913.5647987.79746919.22741068.571068.57
177321.7788447.584219.74254563.140441.3534-33.556162063.9868227.84157102.03551125.8061125.806
187523.8448709.348383.69314596.6630441.8795-51.906852049.7018325.65497140.15091185.5041185.504
198019.2779361.348939.26854618.1840441.5315-58.605481961.6888422.07957080.00851342.0711342.071
208346.1349722.4931310.3644630.690441.5288-70.646581892.9048412.1297035.771376.3591376.359
218159.1849373.1621100.9754632.80442.1945-89.553421893.668272.1877058.2091213.9781213.978
227965.7848989.962889.22744621.4930445.2411-79.252051930.578100.73467076.55661024.1781024.178
237811.4798185.181650.3484602.2790444.7973-85.934252028.1217534.8337161.131373.702373.70219937.595
247422.5327660.959339.59454578.080444.4493-77.841091982.5677321.36457082.9375238.427238.4277277222.175
24
Sept 20 - 2004
49265492755022272-1777307773
485854947545423360779007790
48685494754642309-7776607766
48425493754282251-6767307673
48925494754882241-6772307723
490554937958332615-884409199159
497054534358582533083919509541
495251120556682500-781619819142
498947711255782674-882449819225
49854327754942703-4281559759130
49594305254412532-8378909688838
49304319254532413-6578018348655
489244142537522161176028348436
49634454754552198376565388194
496955937556521769775007750
492452332547921158760207602
494053832551025539807208072
49165326055082385979028008702
492554062560902551786488009448
497054211396651274717941572010135
50705348536457265132914009244
50425316156188268136890509030
50045391205663269544840208558
5063539455647232420799108181
MSEB Generation MSEB Thermal (MW) 2
MSEB Generation MSEB Gas (MW) 3
MSEB Generation MSEB Hydro (MW) 4
MSEB Generation MSEB Total (MW) 5
Central Sector + Purchase (MW) 6
From TPCL (MW) 7
MSEB Demand Met (MW) 8=5+6+7
Load Shed (MW) 9
MSEB Demand (Incl LS) (MW) 10=8+9
Sheet3
Time in Hrs.MSEB GenerationCentral Sector + Purchase (MW)From TPCL (MW)MSEB Demand Met (MW)Load Shed (MW)MSEB Demand (Incl LS) (MW)TEC + BSES Demand (MW)State Demand Met (MW)State Demand (Incl LS) (MW)Hourly Avg. Freq. (MW)
MSEB Thermal (MW)MSEB Gas (MW)MSEB Hydro (MW)MSEB Total (MW)
2345678=5+6+7910=8+91112=8+1113=9+1214
149265492755022272-177730777314459218921850.13
248585494754542336077900779013029092909250.22
348685494754642309-777660776612759041904150.31
448425493754282251-676730767312328905890550.21
548925494754882241-677230772312378960896049.85
6490554937958332615-884409199159129497341045350.1
7497054534358582533083919509541142898191096950.12
8495251120556682500-781619819142150996701065150.1
9498947711255782674-882449819225176110001098650.14
1049854327754942703-4281559759130203410181116450.12
1149594305254412532-8378909688838223210121107050.1
1249304319254532413-6578018348655221910021087450.12
13489244142537522161176028348436214697481058250.17
1449634454754552198376565388194210697621030050.2
1549695593755652176977500775021089858985850.26
1649245233254792115876020760220949696969650.21
17494053832551025539807208072204210111011450.09
1849165326055082385979028008702203899401074050.16
19492554062560902551786488009448200610651145449.85
20497054211396651274717941572010135212311531225850.05
2150705348536457265132914009244200911141125350.02
2250425316156188268136890509030189510801092550.16
2350045391205663269544840208558176310161032149.93
24506353945564723242079910818116979688987850.2
-
Average cost of electricity supply: 6.7 cents/kWh5State subsidy and cross subsidy for domestic (residential) and agricultural sectors
-
MSEB: Electricity Tariff and Consumption by Category (2002-03)
Type of consumptionConsumption (GWh)Percentage
Domestic (6 cents/kWh)7,41119.1
Commercial (9 cents/kWh)1,6434.2
Industrial (6.7 cents/kWh)15,59340.3
Railways1,0122.6
Public Lighting5761.5
Agriculture (< 1 cent/kWh)10,20226.3
Public Water Works1,3873.6
Miscellaneous1,0142.4
Total38,837100
-
StrategyReduce electricity consumption through implementation of cost-effective end-use efficiency (EE)Non-shortage hours: EE can reduce fuel and O&M costs agricultural sectorOn-shortage hours: Saved electricity can be resold to unserved net-positive revenue customers commercial and industrial sectorsEstimate potential for Electricity savingsReselling electricity to unserved customers6
-
Potential for Reselling Electricity: Unserved Electricity Demand byMSEB Consumer Category7Total commercial and Low and High-Tension Industrial Customers 1,890 GWh
Sheet1
MSEB load shedding allocation
MU shed
Number taken for calculation7836
Based on MSEB's calculation7836
Based on hourly load shedding data7277
Based on MSEB's correction2664.24
Rural-Urban distribution of load shedding (based on the load shedding plan on MSEB's seb-site)
Rural load shedding planUrban load shedding plan
Time BlockMWHoursMW-hrTime BlockMWMW-hr
5.00 to 5.308900.54458.30 to 11.3090032700
5.30 to 11.0020055.511027.511.30 to 14.3090032700
11.00 to 11.3020050.51002.514.30 to 17.3090032700
11.30 to 17.0020055.511027.5
17.00 to 17.3020050.51002.5
17.30 to 23.0020055.511027.5
23.00 to 23.3011150.5557.5
Total (MWH/day)360908100
Ratio of rural to urban load shedding0.820.18
Total load shedding MUUrban total1436Rural total6400
Categorywise consumption for MSEB consumers ( based on MSEB annual report 2002-2003 Annex 13)
Urban MURural MuTotal
Domestic4912.462498.147410.6
Commercial1230.75412.091642.84
L. T.2317.32875.233192.55
H. T.6480.075920.2412400.31
Agri. & Irrigation720.669481.0310201.69
Street lights312.19263.5575.69
Railway Traction665.91277.22943.13
Railway Non-Traction56.4811.9168.39
P.W.W.610.85776.281387.13
Military255.9131.43287.34
Mula Pravara631
MS TATA16
Inter State80
Total17562.620547.0738836.67
Allocation of load shedding to different categories of consumers0.3192938529
1. Exclude MIDC consumption
MIDC consumption for the year 02-03
ZoneUnits sent outLoss levelConsumption
Amravati844%80.388
Aurangabad4921%485.112
Beed622%60.822
Bhandup(U)6573%639.261
Kalyan7932%779.519
Kolhapur5592%545.584
Konkan600%59.88
Nagpur941%92.684
Nagpur (U)1463%141.182
Nasik7084%676.848
Pune1683%162.96
Total3724.24
MIDC areas are not subject to load shedding
Allocation of MIDC consumption to industry
Urban% of totalMIDC consumptionRural% of totalMIDC consumption
L. T.2317.3215%553875.236%209
H. T.6480.0742%15485920.2438%1414
Total15592.86
Consumption elegible for load shedding ( after excluding the consumption form MIDC areas) & load shedding allocation
UrbanRuralTotalLoad shedding allocation 2002-03 (GWh)
Consumption% eligibleEligible Consumption% of totalLoad shedding allocationConsumption% eligibleEligible Consumption% of totalLoad shedding allocationConsumer CategoryUrban (GWh)(%)Rural (GWh)(%)Total (GWh)(%)
Domestic4912.5100%491243%6112498.1100%249815%9547410.6Domestic59441%95415%154820%
Commercial1230.8100%123111%153412.1100%4122%1571642.8Commercial14910%1572%3064%
L. T.1763.880%141112%176666.2100%6664%2543192.6L. T. (non-MIDC)17112%2544%4255%
H. T.4932.450%246621%3074506.250%225313%86012400.3H. T. (non-MIDC)29821%86013%115915%
Agri. & Irrigation720.7100%7216%909481.0100%948157%362010201.7Agri. & Irrigation876%362057%370847%
Street lights312.2100%3123%39263.5100%2642%101575.7Street lights383%1012%1382%
Railway Traction665.90%00%0277.250%1391%53943.1Railway Traction403%531%931%
Railway Non-Traction56.5100%560%711.9100%120%568.4Railway Non-Traction70%50%110%
P.W.W.610.950%3053%38776.350%3882%1481387.1P.W.W.373%1482%1852%
Military255.950%1281%1631.450%160%6287.3Military151%60%210%
Mula Pravara00%0631.01.06314%241631.0Mula Pravara00%2414%2413%
MS TATA00%000%016.0Total1436100%6400100%7836100%
Inter State00%000%080.0
Total115431436167596400
Avg realization form various categories of consumers
For the future tariff ( MERC order 03-04)
Consumer categoryAvg realization (Rs/Unit)
LT
Domestic2.79
Commercial3.91
LT indsutry2.83
PWW (U)2.83
PWW 1.54
Agriculture1.94
Street lighting2.41
HT
HT I3.09Mumbai Pune
HT II2.9Other HT
HT III2.78PWW MP
HT IV2.78PWW other
HT V3.35railway traction
HT VI2.64res/com complex
HT VII1.41AG
Mula Pravara2.08
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Consumer Benefits: Cost of Conserved Electricity < Tariff8
Chart1
1.72386726172.79
1.22712878922.79
9.01872861092.79
1.02010675333.91
1.22712878923.91
0.70341831790
0.4884849430
1.74960652030
0.58447271673
0.73059089593
0.79866936363
CCE (Rs./kWh)
Electricity Tariff (2003-04)
Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) (Rs./kWh)
reporttables
Cost-Benefit tables
Rural and Urban Load Shedding PlanConsumer categorywise consumptionConsumption Slabs (Units Con./month)0-3030-100100-300300 & aboveSlabsPrecentageMillion UnitsResedential Sector
Consumer CategoryConsumptionConsumption excluding MIDC consumption% eligible for load sheddingConsumption Subject to load sheddingLoad shedding allocation% of the total load sheddingTable for reportAppliance% breakup of Consumption1 to 30 units40%4877
Time BlockMWHoursMW-hrConsumer CategoryConsumption (MU)UrbanEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy SavingsTubelights14%16%12%11%14%31 to 100 units35%4309Incandescent0.0008219178204.5655799286566.6466564023949.11780705531045.15756236861133.99595516991230.38561135941334.96838832491448.44070133251571.5581609458
UrbanRuralTotalRs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unitIncandescent14%12%6%12%12%101 to 300 units14%1770Refridgerator0.00015566224.751058408512.388384800323.244157342337.640540191255.887805481578.2835705574105.1132364989133.1473940485162.5458132592
Rural load shedding planDomestic491224987411Domestic49124912100%49126149.6%Redential SectorFans30%23%21%20%25%Above 300 units11%1310Geyser0.00271989969.6849508689182.0519341449342.4806280352556.4381871367829.46552791531167.17208346361575.24013291662113.23950386932676.7636233702
5.00 to 5.308900.5445Commercial12314121643Commercial12311231100%12311542.4%Total C&I639Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963air-conditioner0%5%8%11%4%
5.30 to 11.0020055.511028L. T.23178753193L. T. Industry2317176480%14111762.8%Total I485Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Desert Cooler0%0%0%1%0%
11.00 to 11.3020050.51003H. T.6480592012400H. T. Industry6480493250%24663084.8%Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164Refridgerator0%21%21%16%21%Commercial sector
11.30 to 17.0020055.511028Agri. & Irrigation721948110202Agri. & Irrigation721721100%721901.4%Commercial SectorWashing m/c0%0%1%1%0%
17.00 to 17.3020050.51003Street lights312264576Street lights312312100%312390.6%Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126Toaster0%0%0%1%0%
17.30 to 23.0020055.511028Railway Traction666277943Railway Traction66666650%000.0%Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Geyser5%9%20%22%10%Incandescent0.000284931526.474709787273.0119546512121.6564707198132.2318635645142.6649575997153.9212227544166.0656072297179.1681836401193.3045533293
23.00 to 23.3011150.5558Railway Non-Traction561268Railway Non-Traction5656100%000.0%Agricultural SectorTelevision14%10%7%6%11%
Total Rural (MW-hr/day)36090P.W.W.6117761387Public Water Works61161150%305380.6%New pump set300025%0.5901582Immersion Rod0%2%1%0%1%Refridgerator0.00015566221.03040836592.67736157755.00480789778.073120108311.938665246416.653624459222.266077293828.092100290829.9172282139
% of the total load shedding82%Military25631287Military25625650%128160.2%Rectification250025%0.4801898Mixcer/Juicer0%1%1%1%1%
Mula Pravara631Total Urban11487143622.4%Replacement900025%1.7301898Electric Oven2%1%1%0%1%
Urban load shedding planMS TATA16Industrial SectorAgricultural sector
8.30 to 11.3090032700Inter State80RuralMotors800018%0.7633846New IPS0.000147368110.029860879630.247777192560.6360132091101.049136164141.2232821178181.6121333401223.7857841432267.9247662312314.2192834219
11.30 to 14.3090032700Total175632054738837Domestic24982498.14100%249896215.0%Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Pump replacement0.000147368118.347306487135.642700735551.571872999465.859124419878.270331307178.270331307178.270331307178.270331307178.2703313071
14.30 to 17.3090032700Commercial412412.09100%4121592.5%Total C&I1284Lighting (CFL)14918%0.523346IPS rectification0.000196490824.463075316147.523600980768.762497332587.8121658931104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428104.3604417428
Total Urban (ME-hr/day)8100L. T.875666.1877476358100%6662574.0%Total I1125
% of the total load shedding18%H. T.59204506.234191084950%225386813.6%Total CostsIndustrial Sector
Agri. & Irrigation94819481.03100%9481365357.1%Energy SavingsMotors0.0000910.9107730452.33157899524.29320197956.82170604569.938205849813.658778602417.994519407123.502539119629.0555451306
Street lights264263.5100%2641021.6%Cost Benefit form Utilites PerspectiveMW savingsVSD0.0000919.47203966819.417681319429.860605053440.82567497452.338998390764.427987978377.121427045290.449538065590.4495380655
Railway Traction277277.2250%000.0%End-use deviceGrowth Rate of consumption (%)Retirement rate of old appliaces (%)Starting Penetration rate(%)Equilibrium Penetration Rate (%)Years to each Equilibrium Penetration RateEnergy Savings MULighting0.000284931522.406493698664.978831726119.5946601164175.5100651414207.9781439115218.3770511071229.2959036625240.7606988456252.7987337879
Railway Non-Traction1211.91100%000.0%End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced saleRedential SectorYear of the program123456789392.13625645351036.91846252551776.22272174062257.41914600712768.06231473253307.12283667173934.48184957174707.35619849295503.2432525741
P.W.W.776776.2850%3881502.3%Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWhLighting (CFL)6%100%20%80%4End useMU saved
Military3131.4350%1660.1%Redential SectorWater Heating9%10%20%50%8Resedential SectorAnnaulized expenditure each year
Mula Pravara631631100%6312433.8%OutputEmployment MultipliersLighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.79Refrigerator12%7%10%80%8Incandescent2496891,1551,2721,3801,4971,6241,7621,912Cost of Conserved EnergyMillion Rs Spent
Total Rural166096399MultipliersSolar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.79Commercial SectorRefridgerator31801492423595036758551,044Resedential Sector
Total(Rural + Urban)280967835Total C&I19222.003838.93983334221.943735.3091922095Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.79Lighting (CFL)8%100%20%80%4Geyser2667126205305429579777984
Total I16092.093363.74345565180.842.083347.6489893568Commercial SectorRefrigerator8%7%10%80%Commercial sectorIncandescent0.5946483073148.0009005915409.9624946384686.6760784517756.1597632628820.4333431401890.170177307965.83464237811047.93058698021137.0046868736
Total C3131.52475.19637769040.161.24387.6602028527Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.91Agricultural SectorIncandescent93256427464501540583629678Refridgerator0.49305361115.048782927339.23970148373.6249164067119.2248694703177.0223349524247.9600036016332.9418716504421.7389175371514.8572063616
Total LT4330.23Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.91New pump set7%7%20%80%5Refridgerator717325277107143180192Geyser2.614898549366.9947953701175.0239029044329.2593208055534.95714668797.44439246041122.11394165321514.42871161892031.65886413862573.4283940208
Total HT11760.61Methodology tableAgricultural SectorRectification7%7%10%80%8Agricultural sector
IndexParameterFormulaNew pump set0.371.440.842.280Replacement7%7%10%50%8New IPS682054116869581,2321,5191,8182,132
Tax Revenue17921254.332446023AUsage (Hours/Yr)Rectification0.261.440.842.280Industrial SectorPump replacement124242350447531531531531531Commercial sector
% of state tax rev=0.0842099485716.7613977274BLife (Hours)Replacement0.921.440.842.280Motors5%10%10%50%8IPS rectification124242350447531531531531531
CLife (Years)B/AIndustrial SectorVariable speed drives5%10%10%50%8Industrial Sector
235792505DIncremental capital cost (Rs.)Motors0.400.582.352.923Lighting (CFL)5%100%20%80%4Motors10264775109150198258319Incandescent0.474355112444.0752027564121.5505941615202.5341790975220.1401354083237.5091920921256.2486673481276.4666872019298.2799088221321.8141936282
State revenue deficit =93711432ETransaction costs (% of capital cost)Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923VSD104213328449575708847994994
FTotal Investment (Rs.)D*(1+E)Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Lighting79228420616730766805845887Refridgerator0.4930536113.26377629818.480433144215.852524041925.571277304737.815233214452.749673417870.526887910788.980577146694.761595094
Table 16: Potential impact of EE Measures on State Government FinancesGDiscount rateTTotal9142,2653,7964,9536,0566,9958,0359,18110,206
(2002-03)HCapital Recovary Factor (CRF)C/(1- (1+C)^(-B))Incandescent0.800.20
Subsidy ReductionTotal Subsidy Reduction and Revenue IncreaseIAnnulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)F*HEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet BenefitRefridgerator0.800.20Agricultural sector
(Rs. Crores)Tax Revenue Increase(Rs. Crores)JLoad Saving while in operation at end user (Watts)Rs./kWhRs./kWhGeyser1.000.10New IPS0.36920110125.127796660975.7797145803151.9113204595253.1582617914353.806494371454.9926277646560.6502170919671.2315481832787.2131384013
(Rs. Crores)KT & D lossesRedential SectorPump replacement0.9230027525114.9137042418223.2390227737323.0073561602412.4919344722490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155490.2263833155
No backup30% backup60% backupNo backup30% backup60% backupLAnnual Energy Savings at the bus bar (kWh/Yr)J*B/(1-K)Lighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.10IPS rectification0.256389653531.920473400562.010839659489.7242656001114.5810929089136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654136.1739953654
Agriculture527MPeak coninsidance factorSolar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08
Residential11NPeak load saving at the bus bar (Watts)J*M/(1-K)Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46Commercial sectorIndustrial Sector
Total5391,7921,2547172,3311,7931,256OCost of Conserved Energy (CCE) (Rs/kWh)L/ICommercial SectorTMotors0.40493976764.052837639310.375264356619.104266064130.35582484344.223898540260.780028933280.0735879863104.5836563631129.2939087098
As a % of State Revenue Deficit (Rs. 9,371 crores)5.8%19.1%13.4%7.6%24.9%19.1%13.4%PAnnual cost of per peak kW savedI/NLighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.71Incandescent0.800.20VSD0.506174709552.6868893109108.0081230874166.0954185527227.0870787913291.1283220418358.3716274548428.9770981385503.1128423564503.1128423564
Direct and Indirect Impact3,5792,5051,4324,0623,0061,949Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46ALighting0.474355112437.3024203386108.177018982199.1016685574292.1898585124346.2428459259363.5549882222381.7327376333400.819374515420.8603432407
As a % of State Revenue Deficit (Rs. 9,371 crores)38.2%26.7%15.3%43.3%32.1%20.8%Agricultural SectorRefridgerator0.800.20543.38757953541341.84710977092256.89131419722985.91724344553732.02643541924433.34211438355238.03282029096194.73665472317108.7466873673
New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07
Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19
Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Agricultural sector
Industrial SectorIrrigation pumping systems0.800.20
Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37
Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27Industrial Sector
Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36Motors0.500.10
VSD0.500.10
Lighting0.500.20
Potential Estimation
1. Estimating end use wise consumption for the base year
Resedential Consumption
Composition of resedential consumption: results from various studies
1. Calculations based on data gathered in SRC consultants report
Slab wise consumption: resedential
SlabsPrecentage12267
1 to 30 units40%4877
31 to 100 units35%4309
101 to 300 units14%1770
Above 300 units11%1310
Appliance0-3031-5051-170170-400400+Approximation for 30-100Approximation for 100-300Approximation for 300 & aboveEnd use wise consumptionIn % termsConsumption Slabs (Units Con./month)0-3030-100100-300300 & above
kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)Appliance% breakup of Consumption
Tubelights13.922.313.811.410.416.212.010.61729.514%Tubelights14%16%12%11%14%0.001390.00162285710.0011960.00106
Incandescent13.918.88.85.413.111.76.211.61442.712%Incandescent14%12%6%12%12%0.001390.00116571430.00061933330.001156
Fans29.530.120.121.519.923.021.220.23070.625%Fans30%23%21%20%25%0.002950.00229571430.00211733330.002022
air-conditioner0078.511.15.08.210.6498.84%air-conditioner0%5%8%11%4%00.00050.0008150.001058
Desert Cooler000.300.90.20.10.719.90%Desert Cooler0%0%0%1%0%00.00002142860.0000070.000072
Refridgerator10.22619.815.321.521.216.22560.321%Refridgerator0%21%21%16%21%00.00214857140.00212466670.00162
Washing m/c000.30.710.20.60.932.30%Washing m/c0%0%1%1%0%00.00002142860.00006066670.000094
Toaster000.20.50.50.10.40.520.30%Toaster0%0%0%1%0%00.00001428570.0000430.00005
Geyser5.16.19.723.521.68.720.322.01270.510%Geyser5%9%20%22%10%0.000510.00086714290.0020280.002198
Television14.38.59.95.95.49.56.85.51301.111%Television14%10%7%6%11%0.001430.000950.00068333330.00055
Immersion Rod002.1101.51.30.289.61%Immersion Rod0%2%1%0%1%00.000150.00012566670.00002
Mixcer/Juicer0.10.70.90.90.80.80.90.867.91%Mixcer/Juicer0%1%1%1%1%0.000010.00008428570.000090.000082
Electric Oven1.73.20.80.801.50.80.2163.31%Electric Oven2%1%1%0%1%0.000170.00014857140.000080.000016
Total
2. Demand survey IIEC study
All India MU 1995-96
Lamps1324126%
Refrigerators1221624%
TVs/radios508010%
Fans573611%
Mixers/grinders33867%
Geysers28806%
Air/desert coolers18093%
Electric stoves8552%
Room heaters3061%
Electric Irons6751%
Washing machines8222%
Air conditioners3181%
Others44109%
Total51734
3. Kulkarni et. Al study 1991
Share of household consumption
Lighting35%
Water Heating19%
Fans/AC18%
Refirgieration10%
Others18%
We make estimation for the year 2002-2003 based on SRC consultant report estimates
Commercial consumption
1. Calculations based on data gathered in SRC consultants report
Appliance0-100101-500500+Approximation for rangesTotal consumption4469
kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)kWh/mo(%)1 to 100100 - 200200 & aboveDistribution of consumption
Tubelights25.115.18.425%15%12%811.918%
Incandescent11.49.915.811%10%13%529.112%
Mercury vapor1.13.40.61%3%2%79.72%
sodium vapor001.90%0%1%18.00%
CFL0.60.101%0%0%13.50%
Fans10.47.41.910%7%5%338.98%
Air-conditioner6.322.329.66%22%26%748.217%
Desert cooler00.30.10%0%0%5.50%
Refrigetor13.4200.413%20%10%577.413%
stove/Oven0.11.30.10%1%1%22.81%
Deep Freezer11.817.211.912%17%15%611.814%
Geyser0.1025.70%0%13%246.06%
Copier0.302.80%0%1%32.61%
computer00.50.20%1%0%9.60%
Typewriter00.100%0%0%1.50%
Other19.42.3019%2%1%422.49%
Total10099.999.4100%100%100%4469.0
Slab wise consumption
1-10045%
100 -20013%
above 200 units42%
2. Demand survey IIEC study
Lamps862551%
Fans502530%
Refrigerators10046%
Electric Irons6734%
Audios/Radios4893%
Air/desert coolers2151%
Air conditioners3702%
Others5954%
16996
3. World Bank Study
Lighting50%
Indsutrial SectorTotal Consumption18156
Motors70%12709
Variable Speed Drives14%2542
lIghting5%908
Agricultural ConsumptionTotal Consumption7757
Energy efficiency potential estimation
cYear12345678910
TechnologyBase year ConsumptionSector Growth Rate (10 year cagr)2003 - 42004-52005-20062006-2007200820092010201120122013
Resedential Sector0.011
Tubelights17298.5%1876203622092397260128223061332236043910
Incandescent14436.0%1529162117181821193120472169229924372584
Refridgerator256012.3%2875322836254070457051315762647072648157
Geyser12719.0%1385151016451793195521312323253227593008
1070030.096899972876668395919710082110561213013315146221606517659
0.00%
Commercial sector7.89%
Tubelights8127.9%87694510201100118712811382149216101737
Incandescent5297.9%57161666471777383490097110481131
Air-conditioner7477.9%8068699381012109211781271137114801596
Refridgerator5777.9%623672725782844911983106011441234
1026657.9%2876310333483612389742054536489452815698
Agricultural sector0.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.078930.07893-1.000
Irrigation pumping systems77577.0%83008881950310168108801164112456133281426115259
10 year CAGR from 90-2000
Industrial Sector5%
Motors127095%13345140121471215448162211703217883187771971620702
Variable Speed Drives25425%2669280229423090324434063577375539434140
Lighting9085%953100110511103115912171277134114081479
New demand
Technology
Resedential Sector
Incandescent879297103109116123130138146
Refridgerator315353397445500561630708795892
Geyser114125136148161176192209228248
Commercial sector
Tubelights646975818794101109118127
Incandescent42454952576166717783
Air-conditioner59646974808693100108117
Refridgerator46495357626772788490
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems7757543581622665712762815872933998
Industrial Sector
Motors635667701736772811852894939986
Variable Speed Drives127
Lighting45485053555861646770
Stock of CET facing replacement(Total Consumption - Stock of EET)
Resedential Sector
Incandescent144315291297836376386409434460487
Refridgerator2560287531193334351336453724374036823644
Geyser1271138514831576166317431814187519251943
Commercial sector
T
Incandescent529571492323148155167180194210
A
Refridgerator577623653676691696692677651628
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems7757830078247206646356154906480747254660
Industrial Sector
Motors12709133451381214200145051472114847148811482214551
Variable Speed Drives2542266928022942309032443406357737553943
Lighting908953896747544337243255268282
Stock of EET
Resedential Sector
T
Incandescent03248821446154516371735184019502067
Refridgerator010929055792414072022278836204528
Geyser026691302123174486068161038
Commercial sector
Tubelights0
Incandescent0124342569619668720777838905
A0
Refridgerator0194992148219306409516549
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems02276841372228631944108506260607107
Industrial Sector
Motors0200512944149921843002395551656386
Variable Speed Drives0000000000
Lighting01053045608219731022107311271183
New EET
Resedential Sector
T
Incandescent0324558564388402426451478507
Refridgerator0109181267367483615766832908
Geyser026436182105131159210221
Commercial sector
T0
Incandescent0124218228167176190205222168
A0
Refridgerator019304356718710310733
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems02274576879149099149549981047
Industrial Sector
Motors020031243155668581895312111220
Variable Speed Drives0000000000
Lighting0105199256262181146153161169
Replacement DemandLife of the equipmentReplacement Rate
Technology
Resedential Sector
T
Incandescent1100%144315291297836376386409434460487
Refridgerator157%171192208222234243248249245243
Geyser1010%127138148158166174181187193194
Commercial sector
Tubelights
Incandescent1100%529571492323148155167180194210
Air-conditioner1001%
Refridgerator157%38424445464646454342
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems157%517553522480431374327320315311
Industrial Sector
Motors1010%1271133413811420145014721485148814821455
Variable Speed Drives00000000
Lighting250%454477448373272169122128134141
Total Consumption eligible for new choice
Resedential Sector
Tubelights
Incandescent152916211394940485502532564598634
Refridgerator48554560566873480487995710401135
Geyser241263284306328350373397420443
Commercial sector
Tubelights69758187941011091181270
Incandescent574619544379209221238257277210
Air-conditioner6469748086931001081170
Refridgerator889510110711311812412913442
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems1060113411431146114311361142119212481309
Industrial Sector
Motors1906200220822156222322832336238224212441
Variable Speed Drives
Lighting499524498426327227182192201211
Replacement of the exsiting equipment
Equilibrium%Start rate
Ag pump sys rectification0.50.10.10.10.10.10.1
Ag pump replacement0.50.10.10.10.10.10.1
Stock replaced every year
Ag pump sys rectification830782721646561
Ag pump replacement830782721646561
Cumulative stock replaced
Ag pump sys rectification83016122333297935413541354135413541
Ag pump replacement83016122333297935413541354135413541
Variable speed drivesEquilibrium Adoptionstart rate
0.80.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
Adoption every year0267280294309324341358376
Cumulative adoption0267547841115014751815217325492549
Next step:
Estimate the energy saving potential for each category
New Demand
% adoption of the new demandEqulibrium Ratestart rate
Resedential Sector
T
Incandescent0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80
Refridgerator0.800.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.800.800.80
Geyser1.000.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50
Commercial sector
T
Incandescent0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80
A
Refridgerator0.800.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.800.800.80
Agricultural sector
Irrigation pumping systems0.800.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80
Industrial Sector
Motors0.500.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50
VSD0.500.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.500.500.50
Lighting0.500.200.400.600.800.800.800.800.800.800.80
Energy Savings MU
% energy saving potential
Resedential Sector
Incandescent0.7502436611084115812281302138014621550
Refridgerator0.3503810219532449270897612671585
Geyser1.00026691302123174486068161038
Commercial sector
Incandescent0.75093256427464501540583629678
Refridgerator0.350717325277107143180192
Agricultural sector
New IPS0.300682054116869581232151918182132
Pump replacement0.300124242350447531531531531531
IPS rectification0.300124242350447531531531531531
Industrial Sector
Motors0.050.0010.0125.6247.1874.96109.21150.10197.74258.27319.29
VSD0.390.00104.09213.38328.14448.63575.15708.00847.49993.95993.95
Lighting0.750.0078.64228.05419.73615.97729.92766.42804.74844.98887.23
Total0.00916.942261.403774.864928.996049.717023.358118.379332.7710438.50
MW savings during the peak period
kW peak/kWh
Resedential Sector
Incandescent0.0008220054489195210091070113412021274
Refridgerator0.00020820396598141195253316
Geyser0.0034879224045473911061561211428473619
Commercial sector
Incandescent0.000373494156170183197213230248
Refridgerator0.00015613581217222830
Agricultural sector
New IPS0.00144386143200257316379444
Pump replacement0.0026507393111111111111111
IPS rectification0.0026507393111111111111111
Industrial Sector
Motors0.0013691318233037
VSD0.0012253852678399116116
Lighting0.002983153225267280294309324
44211551973254931763844463256156630
Annaulized expenditure each year
Cost of Conserved EnergyMillion Rs Spent
Resedential Sector
Incandescent1.72441911401869199721172244237825212672
Refridgerator1.22747125239397604869119715551945
Geyser9.0192376221173191228604038546873649360
Commercial sector
Incandescent1.0295261436473511551595641692
Refridgerator1.23821396494131176221236
Agricultural sector
New IPS0.70348144289482674867106812791500
Pump replacement1.750218423612782929929929929929
IPS rectification0.48861118171218259259259259259
Industrial Sector
Motors0.5861528446488116151187
VSD0.7376156240328420517619726726
Lighting1.0280233428628745782821862905
1295325855257326927711275136261650919411
Net Benefit (without EE program)
For Consumer
Incandescent1.8645312322020215822882425257027242888
Refridgerator1.76671793445708681247171922322792
Geyser-2.81-74-194-365-596-891-1258-1703-2294-2916
Commercial sector
Incandescent2.472296321054114512361333143815521674
Refridgerator2.68184686139206287384484516
Agricultural sector
New IPS
Pump replacement
IPS rectification
Industrial Sector
Motors2.402461113180262360474619766
VSD2.25234480738100812931592190522342234
Lighting
Increased Realization for MSEB
Incandescent2.8769818983112332535243736396041974449
Refridgerator2.579826150183012641817250432524068
Geyser2.87761983736099101285174023432979
Commercial sector
Incandescent2.742557021170127213721480159717231859
Refridgerator2.57174483133197275367463
Agricultural sector
New IPS2.0313841683313891941249630750.5
Pump replacement2.032524907099051076107610760.45
IPS rectification2.032524907099051076107610760.4
6424647
Industrial Sector
Motors2.612667123196285392516674
VSD2.6127255785611711501184822122594
Lighting2.87226655120517682095220023102425
Net Societal Benefits
Incandescent3.7491024764058433645964872516454745802
Refridgerator2.8711029256092914142032280236384551
Geyser-0.93
Commercial sector
Incandescent2.902697431237134514511566168918221966
Refridgerator2.87194992149220307411518552
Agricultural sector
New IPS1.83
Pump replacement0.80
IPS rectification2.05
Industrial Sector
Motors3.4134871612563725126748801088
VSD3.263396951069146218742307276132383238
Lighting2.902286611216178521152221233224492571
Net Benefits (with EE program)190950038394102611204313816158331802019769
0%0%0%0%
0%0%0%
000
Potential Estimation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Cost-Benefit-Consumer
:
(All Costs in 2004 Constant Rs.):Consumer Perspective
Based on IGIDR HT industry survey:Table for report
Technology`CommercialNew IPSIPS rectificationIPS replacementEnergy efficientVariableIndsutrial LightingEfficiency ImprovementGood House Keeping Pratices:End-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy Savings
CompactSolar WaterRefri-LighitingmotorsSpeedIn Arc Furnaces:Rs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unit
FluorescentHeatersgeratorsImprovementDrives:Redential Sector
Usage (Hours/Yr)1,095-NA--NA-2,1901,2001,2001,2006,0006,0006,000:Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963
2Life (Hours)8,000-NA--NA-8,000-NA--NA--NA--NA--NA-8000:Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Maharashtra sales tax revenue (2002-03) croresMaharashtra elec. consumption (2002-03) GWhEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsPotential (2003-04)End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEB
3Life (Years)7.310153.710101010101.3:Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(GWh)(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)
4Incremental capital cost (Rs.)231.817,0005502223,0002,50011,9398,0006,000222.20:Commercial SectorResidentialResidentialCFL (Lighting)6071.567898368945.997.3059360731251.72386726172.79865.62254498390.24679487182.792.5432051282
5Transaction costs:Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126CFL (Lighting)6,07246.07.3251.722.79866Refrigerators15820.2985074627127.7515251.22712878922.79716.89327908770.83910256412.791.9508974359
(% of incremental capital cost)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%:Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Refrigerators15,820127.815251.232.79717Solar water heater8311.1111111111580.720092915210259.01872861092.791270.53898227740.24679487182.792.5432051282
6Total Investment (Rs.)25518,7006052443,3002,75013,1338,8006,600244:Agricultural SectorSolar water heater8,311580.710259.022.791271Commercial LightingLighting5431.47345369498.553.6529680365201.02010675333.91317.46048706240.49358974363.913.4164102564
7Capital Recovary Factor (CRF)0.3110.2800.2590.4110.2390.2390.2390.1990.1990.882:New pump set300025%0.59015824,669Commercial Lighting5,43198.63.7201.023.91317Refrigerators15820.2985074627127.7515201.22712878923.91746.30364715720.493.913.42
8Annulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)79.35,237157100.5787.1655.93,132.51,753.41,315.1215.6:Rectification250025%0.4801898Refrigerators15,820127.815201.233.91746Agriculture IPSNew unit3538.8739946381111910200.70341831790620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385
9Other Added/Avoided costs(Rs./yr)0.000000000:Replacement900025%1.7301898Agriculture IPSRectification2457.55138516531342.810200.4884849430620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385
10Total annulised Cost (Rs./Yr)79.35,237157100.5787.1655.93,132.51,753.41,315.1215.6:Industrial SectorNew unit3,5391,11910200.700.00621Replacement8802.21179624661790.410201.74960652030620.66666666671.85096153850-1.8509615385
11Load Saving while in operation:Motors800018%0.7633846Rectification2,4581,34310200.490.00621IndustrialMotors17600300010180.58447271673317.730.740384615432.2596153846
at user-end (Watts)422,25038.2459331,1191,49250030045:Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Replacement8,8021,79010201.750.00621Variable Speed Drives22000180010180.73059089593495.65880.740384615432.2596153846
:Lighting (CFL)14918%0.52334618,156IndustrialLighting5431.4734536942703.6529680365180.79866936363340.4250.3432.66
12Annual Energy Savings (kWh/Yr)46.0580.7127.898.61119.01342.81790.43,0001,800270:Motors17,6003,00010180.583.00318CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost0000006932.6327405685
13Average load saving (Watts)5.366.314.611.3128153204342205:Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.733.00496
Peak coninsidance factor0.90.90.660.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.70.500.5Lighting5,431270.03.7180.803.00340
14Peak load saving (Watts)37.82025.038.236.023328037335021032:Cost Benefit form Utilites Perspective0.5913,48822,825CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost6933
15Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE):1,1171890equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost
(Rs./kWh)1.729.021.231.020.700.491.750.580.730.800.200.86:End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced sale354
16Conservation Load Factor (CLF)0.140.030.380.310.550.550.550.980.98:Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWh1,471End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEBLong term cost to MSEB (Rs.2.83)Long term cost to MSEB (Rs.3.26)Realized electricity revenue *Net realized electricity revenue**Potential for Energy SavingsTotal MSEB RevenueNo. of unitsProgram Cost
17Annual cost per peak kW saved:Redential Sector9371(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh/year)(Rs. Crores/yr)(Millions)(Rs.Crores)
(Rs./kWbus-bar)2,0972,5864,0992,7933,3762,3458,3985,0106,2622,0003,800:Lighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.7915.7%Col 1.Col 2.Col 3Col 4Col 5Col 6Col 7
The Real discount rate used =25%25%25%20%20%20%20%15%15%15%12%12%:Solar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.79Residential2.833.26
Avg. T&D losses assumed =-:Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.79CFL (Lighting)6,07246.07.3251.720.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.871.158669918.8
Cosnumer Perspective CalculationsCommercial SectorRefrigerators15,820127.815251.230.842.791.95-0.04-0.472.571.34717965.6
Discount rate assumed25%25%20%20%20%25%25%25%18%18%Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.91Solar water heater8,311580.710259.020.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.87-6.151271-7812.2
Transaction cost30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.91Commercial Lighting5,43198.63.7201.020.493.913.421.080.652.741.72317553.2
CCE1.14.891.030.670.590.481.730.760.750.52Agricultural SectorRefrigerators15,820127.815201.230.493.913.421.080.652.871.647461235.8
Societal Perspective CalculationsNew pump set0.371.440.842.280Agriculture IPS
Discount rate assumed12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%Rectification0.261.440.842.280New unit3,5391,11910200.701.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.33621820.6166.4
Transaction cost10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Replacement0.921.440.842.280Rectification2,4581,34310200.491.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.54621960.5115.6
CCE0.592.610.490.470.370.260.920.400.510.40Industrial SectorReplacement8,8021,79010201.751.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.030.28621170.3413.9
MSEB detailsMotors0.400.582.352.923Industrial
Average cost of supply2.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.83Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923Motors17,6003,00010180.580.743.002.260.17-0.262.612.03318640.1
Average realization (tariff)2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.00Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.730.743.002.260.17-0.262.611.88496930.3
Marginal cost off peak (avg MC of kawas + Nasik) per delivered kWh (incl. 22% T&D loss)2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.47Lighting5,431270.03.7180.800.343.002.660.17-0.262.611.81340621.3
Avg realization form most valued consumer (Com + Dom)3.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.35CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost69336695.8
Societal valueEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet Benefit* -- Realized electricity revenue realized from resale of electricity to customers with electricity shortage assuming a tariff of Rs. 3 per kWH0.17575498880.1387258564
Value of lost load5556444666Rs./kWhRs./kWh0** -- Net revenue with CCE subtracted. Assumes utility program to promote energy efficiency measures.0.885440613
Redential SectorAnnual demand growth =2324.46
MSEB perspectiveLighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.103.0
Increased Revenue form avoided marginal cost0.250.250.840.491.851.851.850.740.740.74Solar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08
Increased Revenue form sale of saved energy3.023.022.212.680.840.840.842.352.352.35Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46
Total Increase in Revenue3.263.263.053.172.692.692.693.093.093.09Commercial Sector2.872.872.56666666672.742.0252.0252.0252.612.612.612.61
Benefit form reducing load shedding4.54.53.34.81114.24.24.2Lighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.710.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86
Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46Subsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvement (2002-03)
Agricultural SectorSubsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvementEstimated Subsidy AmountEfficiency Improvement potentialSubsidy Reduction Potential
% of the total energy saved during the load shedding hoursSignificant load shedding Senario ( LS > 1500MU)0.90.90.66666666670.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.7New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07(Rs./kWH)(GWh/yr)(Rs. Crores/yr)(GWh)(Rs. Crores/yr)
When LS < 1500Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19Agricultural2.837,7572,1951,863527
11pm to 7am no load shedding6Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Residential0.047,003282,85311
8 am to 9 pm significant load shedding18Industrial SectorTotal14,7602,2234,716539
Energy saving potential % of the consumption75%100%35%75%25%30%30%5%30%30%20%Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37
Ratio of kW saved during load shedding period/ kWh saved0.0008220.0034870.0002000.0003650.0002080.0002080.0002080.0001170.000117Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27
Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36
Consumer perspective
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
Discount rate25%25%25%20%25%25%25%18%18%18%18%
Cost of conserved energy0.935.601.031.440.690.481.730.600.750.200.86
Price faced by the consumers2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.003.00
Savings per kWh saved1.86-2.811.762.47-0.69-0.48-1.732.402.252.802.14
Annual Savings128.31620.2356.4385.30.00.00.09000.05400.00.00.0
Pay - back period1.312.252.011.131.50
Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51
Form increased realization2.702.702.002.400.750.750.752.102.102.102.10
Total2.872.872.572.742.032.032.032.612.612.612.61
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51
Reduced loss of production4.504.503.334.001.251.251.253.503.503.503.50
Total4.674.673.904.342.532.532.534.014.014.014.01
Net benefit3.74-0.932.872.901.832.050.803.413.263.813.15
Consumer perspective with energy conservation program
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10
Discount rate0.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.12
Cost of conserved energy0.592.610.490.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86
Price faced by the consumers2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.003.00
Savings per kWh saved2.200.182.302.93-0.37-0.26-0.922.602.492.802.14
Annual savings128.311620.21356.42385.330.000.000.009000.005400.000.000.00
Pay - back period1.9911.541.700.630.000.000.000.981.220.000.00
Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal costsame as above
Form increased realization
Total
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost
Reduced loss of production
Total
Net benefit4.082.063.413.362.162.271.603.613.503.813.15
MSEB perspective
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)
Discount rate
Cost of conserved energy
Net benefit for MSEB-0.51-2.53-0.72-2.151.661.771.10-0.79-0.90-0.59-1.25
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost
Reduced loss of production
Total
CFL assumptions
Incremental capital cost
For CFL
For philips
MRPWLPWSMLife
2602252608000
For Orpat
1601401198000
Incandescent
MRPWSPWSMLife
87.16.0351000
Incremental Capital Cost CalculationResedential SectorCommercial SectorIndsutrial Sector
Life of CFL in years7.33.71.3
Money Spent of Incandescent every year8.7615.54936.21
NPV of money spent$28.18$37.80$41.04
Incremental Capital Cost$231.82$222.20$218.96
peak coinsidance factor considered by various studies
Resedential lighting
Peak coinsidance is .36 in south mumbai ( which is quite affuluent)
Other areas usage is much more hence peak coinsidance is assumed to be 60 %
Prayas LCP0.6
Gadgil at all0.38For south bombay
Nandel at all0.6
SCR load shape
Commercial consumption131.439.42
Solar water heaterswith improved collectors
Present EWH efficiency0.75
Water requirement (Liters/day)100(25 liter bucket per day per person * falimy of 4)
Temp increase (degree c)15
For 250 days476kWh/SWH/year580.7580.7
For more efficient694.96kWh/SWH/year
Peak coinsidance factor0.04evening peakSant at all 1993
Maharashtra has evening peak
Incremental capital cost
EWH cost3000
Solar water heater costMRPWSP (20 % retail margin)WSMIncremental Capital Cost
100 lpd20000170001445011450
Energy effcient refrigeratorsBEE reportThe bulletin on energy efficiency April 2004 Vol 4 Issue 5
BrandEnergy consumption in a daywattsNo. of hourskWH/yr
Videcon0.6Videcon costs about 300- 500 Rs more than some of the inefficient models1103328.8366.168
Allwyn0.64The main issue is energy efficiency is not mentioned and is not used as a selling point723328.8239.6736
BPL1Average
Consumer
IPSOldNewSavingsBus-bar
Substandard brands have 20 % lower effciencyKBS dealerSavingskWh/yrkWh/yrkWh/yr
They are cheaper by 3000 rs300025%2.79754476335711191435
Pipe replacementSavings
Efficient foot valve250030%2.6114476313313431722
25 % lower consumption
Replacement9000Savings
Very inefficient pumps are replaced with new pumps40%2.2384476268617902295
IPS prices
MRPWith discoutWSM
3 HP998682386590.76
5 HP1193998507879.74
3.732.7975
Official discount18%
Wholesale margin20%
Conventional IPS pump89397375
2475
DSM in HT indsutry
Energy efficient motors: still need to get a price list
Variable speed drive: cost about 6000 - 7000 Rs/kW
Energy saving potential is about 30 % on avergage
Good house keeping practices improved electric arc furnaces numbers are taken form IGIDR HT indsutry survey
Cost-Benefit-Consumer
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Rs./kW
Capacity cost (May be compared with electricity supply cost > Rs.50,000/kW)
Cost-Benefit-Society-Govt
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
CCE (Rs./kWh)
Electricity Tariff (2003-04)
Cost of Conserved Electricity (CCE) (Rs./kWh)
Multiplier analysis
:
(All Costs in 2004 Constant Rs.):Consumer Perspective
Based on IGIDR HT industry survey:Table for report
Technology`CommercialNew IPSIPS rectificationIPS replacementEnergy efficientVariableIndsutrial LightingEfficiency ImprovementGood House Keeping Pratices:End-use deviceIncremental Capital costDiscount RateCCEAvg. TariffAnnual Energy Savings
CompactSolar WaterRefri-LighitingmotorsSpeedIn Arc Furnaces:Rs./Unit%Rs./kWhRs./kWhkWh/year/unit
FluorescentHeatersgeratorsImprovementDrives:Redential Sector
Usage (Hours/Yr)1,095-NA--NA-2,1901,2001,2001,2006,0006,0006,000:Lighting (CFL)16025%1.092.7963
2Life (Hours)8,000-NA--NA-8,000-NA--NA--NA--NA--NA-8000:Solar Water Heater1000025%4.892.79745Maharashtra sales tax revenue (2002-03) croresMaharashtra elec. consumption (2002-03) GWhEnd-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Potential for Electricity SavingsPotential (2003-04)
3Life (Years)7.310153.710101010101.3:Refrigerator50025%1.032.79164(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh)(GWh)
4Incremental capital cost (Rs.)218.917,0005502163,0002,50011,9398,0006,000216.08:Commercial SectorResidential
5Transaction costs:Lighting (CFL)15420%0.673.91126CFL (Lighting)5,73346.07.3251.122.79866
(% of incremental capital cost)10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%:Refrigerator50020%1.033.91Refrigerators15,820127.815250.702.79717
6Total Investment (Rs.)24118,7006052383,3002,75013,1338,8006,600238:Agricultural SectorSolar water heater8,311580.710255.702.791271
7Capital Recovary Factor (CRF)0.2130.1770.1470.3540.1770.1770.1770.1770.1770.856:New pump set300025%0.59015824,669Commercial Lighting5,28298.63.7200.853.91317
8Annulised capital Cost (Rs./Yr)51.33,3108984.1584.0486.72,324.31,557.51,168.1203.4:Rectification250025%0.4801898Refrigerators15,820127.815200.703.91746
9Other Added/Avoided costs(Rs./yr)0.000000000:Replacement900025%1.7301898Agriculture IPS
10Total annulised Cost (Rs./Yr)51.33,3108984.1584.0486.72,324.31,557.51,168.1203.4:Industrial SectorNew unit3,5391,11910200.520.00621
11Load Saving while in operation:Motors800018%0.7633846Rectification2,4581,34310200.360.00621
at user-end (Watts)422,25038.2459331,1191,49250030045:Variable speed drives600018%0.7532308Replacement8,8021,79010201.300.00621
:Lighting (CFL)14918%0.52334618,156Industrial
12Annual Energy Savings (kWh/Yr)46.0580.7127.898.61119.01342.81790.43,0001,800270:Motors17,6003,00010180.523.00318
13Average load saving (Watts)5.366.314.611.3128153204342205:Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.653.00496
Peak coninsidance factor0.90.90.660.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.70.500.5Lighting5,282270.03.7180.753.00340
14Peak load saving (Watts)37.82025.038.236.023328037335021032:Cost Benefit form Utilites Perspective0.5913,48822,825CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost6933
15Cost of Conserved Energy (CCE):1,1171890equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost
(Rs./kWh)1.125.700.700.850.520.361.300.520.650.750.200.86:End-use deviceCCEIncreased revenue form avoided MCIncreased revenue form sale of saved energyTotal increase in RevenueLoss in revenue form reduced sale354
16Conservation Load Factor (CLF)0.140.030.380.310.550.550.550.980.98:Rs./kWhRs./kWhRs./kWhRs/kWhRs./kWh1,471End-use deviceIncremental Capital CostIncremental Electricity SavingsLifetimeDiscount Rate (Real)CCEAvoided cost of supply -- short termElectricity Tariff (2003-04)Short term cost to MSEBLong term cost to MSEB (Rs.2.83)Long term cost to MSEB (Rs.3.26)Realized electricity revenue *Net realized electricity revenue**Potential for Energy SavingsTotal MSEB RevenueNo. of unitsProgram Cost
17Annual cost per peak kW saved:Redential Sector9371200092127912703060.1619047619(Rs./kW)(kWh/yr/unit)(years)(%)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(Rs./kWh)(GWh/year)(Rs. Crores/yr)(Millions)(Rs.Crores)
(Rs./kWbus-bar)1,3581,6342,3232,3372,5051,7406,2314,4505,5622,0003,800:Lighting (CFL)0.590.193.023.212.7915.7%21828228259974250.2248677249Col 1.Col 2.Col 3Col 4Col 5Col 6Col 7
The Real discount rate used =12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%:Solar Water Heater2.610.193.023.212.795.8%0.91666666670.93226725081.273821464411590.6132275132Residential2.833.26
Avg. T&D losses assumed =-:Refrigerator0.490.652.212.872.794062.97020810522300.9851040526937118.8%1761.98510405263523.970208105218901CFL (Lighting)5,73346.07.3251.120.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.871.7586615218.8
Cosnumer Perspective CalculationsCommercial Sector43.4%24.6%0.082803943Refrigerators15,820127.815250.700.842.791.95-0.04-0.472.571.877171345.6
Discount rate assumed25%25%20%20%20%25%25%25%18%18%Lighting (CFL)0.470.392.683.073.913005.77914567361772.389572836813.2%1233.38957283682466.7791456736Solar water heater8,311580.710255.700.252.792.54-0.04-0.472.87-2.831271-3592.2
Transaction cost30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%Refrigerator0.490.652.212.873.9132.1%18.9%7.5%704.7940416211409.5880832421Commercial Lighting5,28298.63.7200.850.493.913.421.080.652.741.89317603.2
CCE1.14.891.030.670.590.481.730.760.750.52Agricultural Sector1948.58808324211243.794041621Refrigerators15,820127.815200.700.493.913.421.080.652.872.177461625.8
Societal Perspective CalculationsNew pump set0.371.440.842.28020.8%13.3%Agriculture IPS
Discount rate assumed12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%12%Rectification0.261.440.842.280New unit3,5391,11910200.521.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.51621940.6166.4
Transaction cost10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%Replacement0.921.440.842.280Rectification2,4581,34310200.361.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.031.676211030.5115.6
CCE0.592.610.490.470.370.260.920.400.510.40Industrial SectorReplacement8,8021,79010201.301.850.00-1.85-2.83-3.262.030.73621450.3413.9
MSEB detailsMotors0.400.582.352.923Industrial
Average cost of supply2.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.832.83Variable speed drives0.510.582.352.923Motors17,6003,00010180.520.743.002.260.17-0.262.612.09318660.1
Average realization (tariff)2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.00Lighting (CFL)0.420.582.352.923Variable Speed Drives22,0001,80010180.650.743.002.260.17-0.262.611.96496970.3
Marginal cost off peak (avg MC of kawas + Nasik) per delivered kWh (incl. 22% T&D loss)2.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.472.47Lighting5,282270.03.7180.750.343.002.660.17-0.262.611.86340631.3
Avg realization form most valued consumer (Com + Dom)3.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.353.35CCE: Cost of conserved electricity includes a transaction cost equal to 10% of the incremental capital cost6933618695.8
Societal valueEnd-use deviceCCEValue of lost loadBenefit form avoided MCBenefit form reducing load sheddingTotal BenefitNet Benefit* -- Realized electricity revenue realized from resale of electricity to customers with electricity shortage assuming a tariff of Rs. 3 per kWH0.17575498880.1387258564
Value of lost load5556444666Rs./kWhRs./kWh0** -- Net revenue with CCE subtracted. Assumes utility program to promote energy efficiency measures.0.885440613
Redential SectorAnnual demand growth =2324.46
MSEB perspectiveLighting (CFL)0.5950.194.54.694.103.0
Increased Revenue form avoided marginal cost0.250.250.840.491.851.851.850.740.740.74Solar Water Heater2.6150.194.54.692.08
Increased Revenue form sale of saved energy3.023.022.212.680.840.840.842.352.352.35Refrigerator0.4950.653.33.953.46
Total Increase in Revenue3.263.263.053.172.692.692.693.093.093.09Commercial Sector2.872.872.56666666672.742.0252.0252.0252.612.612.612.61
Benefit form reducing load shedding4.54.53.34.81114.24.24.2Lighting (CFL)0.4760.394.85.194.710.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86
Refrigerator0.4960.653.33.953.46Subsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvement (2002-03)
Agricultural SectorSubsidy RateConsumption targeted for efficiency improvementEstimated Subsidy AmountEfficiency Improvement potentialSubsidy Reduction Potential
% of the total energy saved during the load shedding hoursSignificant load shedding Senario ( LS > 1500MU)0.90.90.66666666670.80.250.250.250.70.70.70.7New pump set0.3741.4412.442.07(Rs./kWH)(GWh/yr)(Rs. Crores/yr)(GWh)(Rs. Crores/yr)
When LS < 1500Rectification0.2641.4412.442.19Agricultural2.837,7572,1951,863527
11pm to 7am no load shedding6Replacement0.9241.4412.441.52Residential0.047,003282,85311
8 am to 9 pm significant load shedding18Industrial SectorTotal14,7602,2234,716539
Energy saving potential % of the consumption75%100%35%75%25%30%30%5%30%30%20%Motors0.4060.584.24.784.37
Ratio of kW saved during load shedding period/ kWh saved0.0008220.0034870.0002000.0003650.0002080.0002080.0002080.0001170.000117Variable speed drives0.5160.584.24.784.27
Lighting (CFL)0.4260.584.24.784.36
Consumer perspective
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
Discount rate25%25%25%20%25%25%25%18%18%18%18%
Cost of conserved energy0.935.601.031.440.690.481.730.600.750.200.86
Price faced by the consumers2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.003.00
Savings per kWh saved1.86-2.811.762.47-0.69-0.48-1.732.402.252.802.14
Annual Savings128.31620.2356.4385.30.00.00.09000.05400.00.00.0
Pay - back period1.312.252.011.131.50
Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51
Form increased realization2.702.702.002.400.750.750.752.102.102.102.10
Total2.872.872.572.742.032.032.032.612.612.612.61
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost0.170.170.570.341.281.281.280.510.510.510.51
Reduced loss of production4.504.503.334.001.251.251.253.503.503.503.50
Total4.674.673.904.342.532.532.534.014.014.014.01
Net benefit3.74-0.932.872.901.832.050.803.413.263.813.15
Consumer perspective with energy conservation program
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)0.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.100.10
Discount rate0.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.120.12
Cost of conserved energy0.592.610.490.980.370.260.920.400.510.200.86
Price faced by the consumers2.792.792.793.910.000.000.003.003.003.003.00
Savings per kWh saved2.200.182.302.93-0.37-0.26-0.922.602.492.802.14
Annual savings128.311620.21356.42385.330.000.000.009000.005400.000.000.00
Pay - back period1.8811.541.700.620.000.000.000.981.220.000.00
Increased realization for MSEB (per kWh saved)From avoided marginal costsame as above
Form increased realization
Total
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost
Reduced loss of production
Total
Net benefit4.082.063.413.362.162.271.603.613.503.813.15
MSEB perspective
Transcation costs( includes search costs, retail margins, learning costs)
Discount rate
Cost of conserved energy
Net benefit for MSEB-0.51-2.53-0.72-2.151.661.771.10-0.79-0.90-0.59-1.25
Benefit for the society (per kWh saved)Form avoided marginal cost
Reduced loss of production
Total
CFL assumptions
Incremental capital cost
For CFL
For philips
MRPWLPWSMLife
2602252608000
For Orpat
1601401198000
Incandescent
MRPWSPWSMLife
87.16.0351000
Incremental Capital Cost CalculationResedential SectorCommercial SectorIndsutrial Sector
Life of CFL in years7.33.71.3
Money Spent of Incandescent every year8.7615.54936.21
NPV of money spent$41.10$43.92$42.32
Incremental Capital Cost$218.90$216.08$217.68
peak coinsidance factor considered by various studies
Resedential lighting
Peak coinsidance is .36 in south mumbai ( which is quite affuluent)
Other areas usage is much more hence peak coinsidance is assumed to be 60 %
Prayas LCP0.6
Gadgil at all0.38For south bombay
Nandel at all0.6
SCR load shape
Commercial consumption131.439.42
Solar water heaterswith improved collectors
Present EWH efficiency0.75
Water requirement (Liters/day)100(25 liter bucket per day per person * falimy of 4)
Temp increase (degree c)15
For 250 days476kWh/SWH/year580.7580.7
For more efficient694.96kWh/SWH/year
Peak coinsidance factor0.04evening peakSant at all 1993
Maharashtra has evening peak
Incremental capital cost
EWH cost3000
Solar water heater costMRPWSP (20 % retail margin)WSMIncremental Capital Cost
100 lpd20000170001445011450
Energy effcient refrigeratorsBEE reportThe bulletin on energy efficiency April 2004 Vol 4 Issue 5
BrandEnergy consumption in a daywattsNo. of hourskWH/yr
Videcon0.6Videcon costs about 300- 500 Rs more than some of the inefficient models1103328.8366.168
Allwyn0.64The main issue is energy efficiency is not mentioned and is not used as a selling point723328.8239.6736
BPL1Average
Consumer
IPSOldNewSavingsBus-bar
Substandard brands have 20 % lower effciencyKBS dealerSavingskWh/yrkWh/yrkWh/yr
They are cheaper by 3000 rs300025%2.79754476335711191435
Pipe replacementSavings
Efficient foot valve250030%2.6114476313313431722
25 % lower consumption
Replacement9000Savings
Very inefficient pumps are replaced with new pumps40%2.2384476268617902295
IPS prices
MRPWith discoutWSM
3 HP998682386590.76
5 HP1193998507879.74
3.732.7975
Official discount18%
Wholesale margin20%
Conventional IPS pump89397375
2475
DSM in HT indsutry
Energy efficient motors: still need to get a price list
Variable speed drive: cost about 6000 - 7000 Rs/kW
Energy saving potential is about 30 % on avergage
Good house keeping practices improved electric arc furnaces numbers are taken form IGIDR HT indsutry survey
LSallocation
Distribution of GVA, Value of Output and Employment
Organised and UnorganisedOverallUnorganised
GVAVOEmploymentOutputIndustryGVAVOEmployment
OrganisedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganisedSectorsMultipliersMultipliersOrganisedUnorganisedOrganised+UorganizedUnorganisedOrganisedUnorganised
1rice1672972261061376987rice1.553514652140419.08875294
2wheat76832106091646092wheat1.641736271057387.3526085
3pulses2454263686092244828pulses1.686210043781913.6683463
4sugarcane3010734128032513973sugarcane1.586528783976024.90108565
5Other foodgrains3035013572612175717Other foodgrains1.324704132864817.2534203
6other crops1699173202397312325996other crops1.34271792416552157.5610482
7animal husbandry & fishery87619913533558241931animal husbandry & fishery1.54208852012719085.0236103
8Forestry194859216508312034Forestry1.19256895370240.902323227
9Coal154806215397102308Coal1.55333876158582.207586803
10Other minerals241902782613217Other minerals1.253468916476.5798696502
11Sugar*166259247187862540268986336289Sugar2.261995536285209.311220845
12Other foodgrains22115417563317224216716953269077867413Other foodgrains2.4157716869972166.38796928
13Textiles204948202045942293675013150690673031Textiles2.390386509716131711968559.817359751608435.1808559
14Textile products44946322111833045272620591168409Textile products2.33550742123028441004.426432204392957.67148371
15Wood products2435512524313629527503214063745198Wood products2.068478325668991564997.515011791536011.15908783
16Paper products913906606534610520336143551153518Paper products2.411321966489268474130.629497907369351.489086604
17Leather76663652032117826483614173652Leather2.16247414178175382156.13797016374364.261187407
18rubber49404242571574881001211450439676rubber2.36608398236457127957.69730427993702.3391154667
19plastic504988701922706930112425242194340plastic2.561349634769430561075.440121811496576.384400026
20petroleum products163828749112759434299994396038petroleum2.0827492948962932260.352314121812585.2143754169
21coal tar231514118117719672414coal tar2.434579217492642.14876176831007.5408482929
22fertilisers102690333128056928005126981395fertilisers2.317131906472732572.09066000613223.4945402735
23other chemicals101568816775831412431016629142168497439other chemicals2.38988128024160431520042.652181131182176.0359867
24Cement3652014951315633491233194877Cement2.24302887782963234.533673011210937.6359949781
25Other non-metallic mineral products31289320161150197303820386207976Other non-metallic mineral products2.11397281154296482427.916137123439360.644466898
26Iron and steel1368177189140809983561781051Iron and steel2.76255239527574158073.6067477872901.7652240005
27Non-ferrous20520900166808297188862318Non-ferrous2.74465452814430716.2449576296353.875473337
28Metal products10414011216249101728473953590353427Metal products2.5519773327257731037449.57264157900853.016739702
29Non-eletrical machinery4334701247761746077413032395430196746Non-eletrical machinery2.58557615910667061529365.82822507508120.612296526
30Electrical machinery21797434831108936610427673644113211Electrical machinery2.683204506279944501637.901134921303930.420818219
31Transport equipment37920763365128637817781788046101611Transport equipment2.423546191430661459338.247261354246096.363536078
32Miscellanoeus products12524918928078379840433744184679804Miscellanoeus products2.62310727910574461893413.366762131777861.96410193
33Construction113866026904242322579Construction2.0755578344797945.94887038
34Electircity5132071524936128134Electircity2.303513192295199.013100671
35Gas and water supply788521162289766Gas and water supply1.6218795315792.8760084558
36Railways14308330600598270Railways2.08635824204186.68551718
37Other transport114429828822751775948Other transport2.0458905613629539.65061165
38Communication598939698880288762Communication1.29900638372124.638701234
39Trade hotel and restaurants and storage268608237102854791922Trade hotel and restaurants and storage1.4955300827142233.92781423
40Banks and Insurance26647533438020549623Banks and Insurance1.384738247757485.446664808
41Ownership of dwellings1119402120065727573Ownership of dwellings1.14136802531416.630160916
42Other services166609130366643320754Other services1.8756828796214529.51060167
43Public administration827546827546764456Public administration1.00827546764456.09548873
Total202545951489728418055454927781485907075217833Industry Multiplier93611414103069499138244710266807
93.1%6.9%89.5%10.5%90.3%9.7%2.242.092.192.08
Total217443234673332553808540Commercial Multiplier1731923314145666
Total C& I Employment18828359
Total C& I Elec.Use (GWh)22825
Employment/GWh825
Employment1.9415854591109821.43873837634183.679279071
Maharashtra I-O Table 1998-993075791215305412303161.521.24
12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243Total IusePFCEGFCFRow total
ricewheatpulsessugarcaneOther foodgrainsother cropsanimal husbandry & fisheryForestryCoalOther mineralsSugarOther foodgrainsTextilesTextile productsWood productsPaper productsLeatherrubberplasticpetroleumcoal tarfertilisersother chemicalsCementOther non-metallic mineral productsIron and steelNon-ferrousMetal productsNon-eletrical machineryElectrical machineryTransport equipmentMiscellanoeus productsConstructionElectircityGas and water supplyRailwaysOther transportCommunicationTrade hotel and restaurants and storageBanks and InsuranceOwnership of dwellingsOther servicesPublic administration
Sectors
1rice193171682040002015748650002576194450318700000087803000000000002902523500419601533403098240463163
2wheat161115941002011547248130002993157457013100000076101000028000000106601303000418501454843416440487128
3pulses122608282980059711433300062349900000000001880000000000000426608289008370864161930590279475
4sugarcane0003259504783846009482238579800000000001910000000000810000010110000527967752520603218
5Other foodgrains29858017926936503000312806000000000010900000000000000032002780223732373030259676
6other crops683671601148032913061900222425449512300751240147582242922153621211168061916587284101020304224530905014469097001002907101528706114862202677328
7animal husbandry & fishery89091971295461142921084855584898000552017859873471109725569142772302611781124838725410928710120821614039440002776300125160454052964561190851437698
8Forestry0060017410836000177152093142381199964924312217213132331578206922256225187127289204284210000041550040880168221890980257319
9Coal0190017300605011047958803375501727188118140235453053519491011610271295184838411134741554721853544565166098041900307500594003685197240369243
10Other minerals006000430339430141596772345524752192847428351912076382437321021866301983000922039157263793404638154991450200420003348002297201279558001279558
11Sugar065500115000094370800000000006016000000001100000038000010950548161483710203186
12Other foodgrains322235801545318440004502041862043818133789362401300100330225014806603327000144074183223054300349204164823701997441
13Textiles563222462001189717190011645685918612859421121233762438365455815710160026524465172631470412491374102822327184924002817580650834403028403765454525310829076
14Textile products21000347502214066115473012316292226929176375246613136115203181876563176935723688981414824545159215137432709631737400050650853431492631590236196
15Wood products53167253125215189112115383473025442340111385168562000156236115180342551423185239818562225213453103231372083487564152511355196109911826016404028084211895729706429505
16Paper products34224467181934845932151172299372081497929291334794221007650643313201115334147313820398178263707983426480261856549017840121473250911700365440285760453267293490482617
17Leather000000175000020390465176323418142914900011601417201618364293747745415003170135800299303358729019062606
18rubber214011931498424350237178343157934499362552546665354655531055405112411140115423183819803771981239545932873310440237201693571539658173242926
19plastic021700333037002731366418071586756767231765128509521345034301327038936313712241102730548365312786995000137190263500506001787765621922273257269
20petroleum17327852706135921817819365314161562279337817354741471024262489399969989134911119152611670868319391163464602000895641205942091081627037142565834756718523234873090756306114092121420823551
21coal tar003000400097153282469350014334131222077661300110130848284461913148114135973262286009210063200148101227031710122873
22fertilisers171511006628201407931734796793130000231738000000003258624463000000101335380900001484005400027741400277414
23other chemicals2087431559815301432482942414486539065726187711370011858816540988616454152187311203021505934411412845579415832866571289338786455214472961858553983340408127378018347002001250226973819456802464306
24Cement00000000010000000229000628833324404416181545515139601070007000247015682600156826
25Other non-metallic mineral products00300341300117012873672112103117391091675750362011362248151681144118155845596386309213668677002182565081300245301477974614509152920
26Iron and steel00000525411020707145131817965825152032829218129513388985926321712300180681442417137769207608107983178382015012580104260043814016009190256791626598
27Non-ferrous006001739500016232284274427455308268802859938112355824286531014166863676265870825101526883904335016651100029067590021599082699700826997
28Metal products227723616517251932211370212211785078329502038636328023745433611273411067158145927412528690543081501346264545136726351732814440287234192888012222037198862370122690557048
29Non-eletrical machinery2491072135691483175519884868840393796821474912101814167422457083311155814331170356077735197394214241298635218207190523951923018338926516426463519980118280405966252875972041028457
30Electrical machinery2177120131171300319517213951124119456434610001977221962252723671632226333523971149906179045186252914774685814221352220422402514020758036301890447523397976863
31Transport equipment6127183111933704933485146263226808135311676900030101193912177114367781078341797807140345327314458869213396446051250216407122637336629675674
32Miscellanoeus products5347321226192460218311621730441231423062842967362491543391359414424361507777250374061876514297104374789869212414119484280228921319701173600276024139005231731646760
33Construction8506734694349024004664674540563831219047566336058919401180240518948135282581976334360014213631242602824852770201214125872316322168953383715145120024132181019268840337358023531742690532
34Electircity22271813193538547976511367186111914118691274991287697878201302554615531136128279330194361017920579210565661942305150092728179828385717072031909438833983934234547431813491321650722496520388850169631112429001820600
35Gas and water supply0100001