Effects  of  Everglades  Restora1on  on    Sea  Level  Rise  Resilience  in  Urban  Miami  

Dr. Todd A. Crowl Director, Institute for Water & the Environment

Director, Southeast Environmental Research Center Florida International University

Sustainable  South  Florida  

Global  Change  

SLR,  Storms  

Urban  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Restora=on  Ecosystem  Services  

Everglades  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

     Sea  level  rise  will  interact  with  changes  in  precipita=on  and  temperature  

South Florida Temperature Projections

South Florida Rainfall

Projections

IPCC  Climate  Change  Scenario  Descrip=ons:    Most  Pessimis=c      Assumes  a  “business  as  usual”  aItude,  or  liJle  to  no  response  to  adverse  climate  change  affects.    Most  Op=mis=c  Assumes    a  concerted,  global  effort  to  mi=gate  human  impacts.      

South  Florida  is  very  vulnerable  to  SLR  

Sustainable  South  Florida  

Global  Change  

SLR,  Storms  

Urban  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Restora=on  Ecosystem  Services  

Everglades  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Sea  Level  Rise  Projec=ons  

Inunda=on  in  Urban  Miami  

Maps  courtesy  Pete  Harlem,  GIS  lab,  FIU  

Flooding  in  Miami  

Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade County

Credit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM

Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM

Miami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERMMiami-Dade CountyCredit: Miami-Dade DERM

Alton  Rd  between  8th  and  10th  streets  has  been  flooding  every  year  for  the  past  7  years  at  least.  

What  is  a  perigean  spring  =de  “aka  King  Tide”?    

 

Alton  Road,  Miami  Beach    October  2013  

Sea  level  rise  and  saltwater  intrusion  

Limestone  

SLR  +  popula=on  growth  =    a  threatened  urban  water  supply  

In  2010    Popula=on  =  5.6  million  Water  demand  =  1.8  billion  gal./day  

By  2030    Popula=on  =  6.6  million  Water  demand  =  2.1  billion  gal./day  

Since  1985,  there  has  been  a  decline  in  the  available  freshwater  resources  of  12–17%  in  the  Biscayne  Aquifer.  

A  threatened  water  supply  

Blanco et al. Applied Geochemistry 38, 48-58. 2013.

Sustainable  South  Florida  

Global  Change  

SLR,  Storms  

Urban  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Restora=on  Ecosystem  Services  

Everglades  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

The Florida Everglades – Pre-human management

The Changing Everglades Landscape

Pre-Drainage Post-Drainage The Everglades is now half its original extent

Recr

eati

ons

by C

. M

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Phot

o: F

. To

bias

The Changing Everglades Landscape

Everglades  is  also  very  vulnerable  to    climate  change,  sea  level  rise  

 

Pre-Drainage Post-Drainage

               Vulnerability  due  to:    •  Porous,  shallow  limestone  aquifer  suscep=ble  to  intrusion  

•  Thin  peat  soils  caused  by  evapora=on  and  drainage  

 •  Long  exposed  coastline,  low  &  flat  topography  

•  Lost  natural  water  storage  (small  changes  in  rain  triggers  floods  or  droughts)  

Peat  Collapse  

Peat  Collapse  -‐  a  possible  consequence  of  rapid  SLR  

Marsh  Subsidence  

Peat  accre=on  needs  to  keep  pace  with  sea  level  rise  

Peat  Collapse  –  a  subject  of  intense  scien=fic  study  in  the  Everglades  

Large  and  small  scale  experiments    to  understand  the  causes  and  consequences  of  soil  collapse  

Troxler,  Sklar  et.  al.  experiment  

Exposure  of  sawgrass  peats  to  nutrients  and  salinity  s=mulates  microbial  decomposi=on  of  soils,  causing  a  posi=ve  feedback  to  salt-‐water  encroachment    

Experimental  manipula=on  of  salinity  and  phosphorus  

Peat  Collapse  –  a  subject  of  intense  scien=fic  study  in  the  Everglades  

Sustainable  South  Florida  

Global  Change  

SLR,  Storms  

Urban  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Restora=on  Ecosystem  Services  

Everglades  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Adapta=ons  to  Climate  Change  and  Sea  Level  Rise  

Historic  Flow   Current  Flow   Restored  Flow  

 Everglades  restora=on  will  increase  the  resilience  of  the  natural  &  built  ecosystem  

Adapta1ons  to  Climate  Change  and  Sea  Level  Rise  

Historic  Flow   Current  Flow   Restored  Flow  

Arrows show dry season seawater INFLUX into the Everglades creeks and groundwater

(not to scale)

2  Foot  SLR    No  Flow  Restora=on  

Sea  level  rise  with  freshwater  restora=on  2  Foot  SLR    +  Flow  Restora=on  

Southeast Environmental

Research Center

Protec=ng  mangroves  protects  “blue  carbon”  in  mangrove  soils  

Mangroves accumulate more CO2 than many tropical forests Soils build at rate similar to SLR ~3 mm per year

Barr, Fuentes, Engel, Rivera-Monroy

   •  Increase  water  storage,  extending  the  life  of  

wellfields,    •  Restore  freshwater  flows  through  the  

Everglades,  •  Push  back  saltwater  intrusion,  securing  water  

supply,  •  Protect  water  quality,    •  Protect  soils  and  mangrove  buffering,    

 Everglades  restora=on  will  increase  the  resilience  of  the  natural  &  built  ecosystem  

Sustainable  South  Florida  

Global  Change  

SLR,  Storms  

Urban  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Restora=on  Ecosystem  Services  

Everglades  Vulnerability  

and  Adapta=on  

Total  Ecosystem  Value  (TEV)    Decreases  with  SLR  

•     TEV  dec  from  $74B  to  $5B  with  5  p  SLR  •     C  sequestra=on  value  dec  from  $32M  to  $490K    

 •     Sea  level  will  keep  rising  –  projec=on  certainty  will  improve  in  coming  years  

•     Sea  level  rise  affects  surface  flooding,  fresh  groundwater  supplies  and  natural  resources    •   Adapta=on  strategies    exist  through  Everglades  restora=on  

Southeast Environmental

Research Center

Southeast Environmental

Research Center