el paso county cooperative extension meeting nolan j. doesken, state climatologist colorado climate...
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El Paso County Cooperative Extension Meeting
Nolan J. Doesken, Nolan J. Doesken, State ClimatologistState Climatologist
Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate CenterPresented to El Paso County Ranchers, August 31, 2006.
Prepared by Odie Bliss
Where Have We Been?
U.S. Drought Monitor for July 12006 2005 2004
2003 2002 2001
48-month SPI graph
Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI
(1890 - June 2006)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1890
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1900
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1915
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1987
1990
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1995
1997
2000
2002
2005
Year
Fra
cti
on
(in
pe
rce
nt)
Colorado Springs Water Year Precipitation*
* Colorado Climate Center adjusted for station changes.
Colorado Springs Water Year Precipitation (Adjusted Values*)from 1893-2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
18
93
18
97
19
01
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93
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97
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01
20
05
Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Summary
• After generous moisture in 1980s and 1990s, drier than average conditions have been dominant since fall 1999.
• Above average temperatures have also prevailed since the mid 1990s.
• Recent drought episode has been severe (with respect to recent history) with some similarities to the droughts of the 1930s, 50s and 70s.
Where Are We Now?
From http://home.fuse.net/Wyght/WestHP2000c.html
NWS National Precipitation Analysis for Past 60 days
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php
Colorado Springs Accumulated Deficit
Colorado Springs Accumulated Precipitation Deficit
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Year
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n D
efi
cit
(in
ch
es
)
Colorado Monthly PrecipitationColorado Springs Monthly Precipitation vs. Average Precipitation
0
1
2
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7
Month
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Precip 1971-2000 average
El Paso County Average Precipitation
El Paso County Average Precipitation, 1971-2000
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug SepMonth
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n (
inc
he
s)
Colo Spr Rush Karval Pueblo Monument Ruxton Park
El Paso County PrecipitationEl Paso County Precipitation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Pre
cip
itat
ion
(in
ches
)
Colo Spr Rush Karval
Pueblo Monument Ruxton Park
Summary of Current Conditions
• Rainfall has been spotty, but generally above average in El Paso County and most of southern and Central Colorado since early July.
• Summer rains have been sufficient to bring substantial short-term drought relief to this area.
What Comes Next?
Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Projections
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/
Multivariate ENSO Forecast
Last updated 4 August 2006
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
CPC Sep-Nov 06 Forecast
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Temperature Precipitation
CPC Dec 06-Feb 07 Forecast
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Temperature Precipitation
CPC Mar-May 07 Forecast
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Temperature Precipitation
CPC Jun-Aug 07 Forecast
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Temperature Precipitation
Summary of Forecast Information
• Weak La Nina of recent months has given way to weak El Nino − probably a positive sign
• Very dry winters (like last winter) are more likely to be followed by a wetter winter
• Prediction of next spring and summer very "Iffy"• Long range prediction for this area will almost
always be "Iffy"• Best to be thankful for recent rains, but anticipate
more dry weather ahead
Volunteers Wanted To Help Measure El Paso County Precipitation!
Join CoCoRaHS or RainCheck!
http://www.rain-check.org/index.html
http://www.cocorahs.org
For More Information, Visit the CoCoRaHS Web Site
Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program,National Science Foundationandmany local charter sponsors.
http://www.cocorahs.org
Colorado Climate CenterColorado State University
• Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading
• http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu
click on “Drought”
then click on “Presentations”