elections and campaigns. campaigns: then and now parties are less important parties are less...
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Elections and Elections and CampaignsCampaigns
Campaigns: Then and Campaigns: Then and Now Now
Parties are less importantParties are less important Media, polling, and money are more Media, polling, and money are more
importantimportant People are hired to perform campaign People are hired to perform campaign
taskstasks Media consultantsMedia consultants Direct mail firmsDirect mail firms Polling firmsPolling firms Political technology firmsPolitical technology firms
Campaigns: Then and Campaigns: Then and NowNow
Today’s candidates spend the most on mediaToday’s candidates spend the most on media 2004: presidential and congressional candidates 2004: presidential and congressional candidates
spent a combined $1.2 billion on mediaspent a combined $1.2 billion on media Plurality of political ads were designed to appeal to Plurality of political ads were designed to appeal to
voters’ fears (impending war, losing a job, etc.)voters’ fears (impending war, losing a job, etc.)
Federal Campaign Federal Campaign Spending: Where the Spending: Where the
Money GoesMoney Goes 2003-2004 Election Cycle Spending2003-2004 Election Cycle Spending
Introduction to Presidential Introduction to Presidential and Congressional and Congressional
CampaignsCampaigns Two phases: getting nominated and getting electedTwo phases: getting nominated and getting elected Getting nominatedGetting nominated
Getting a name on the ballotGetting a name on the ballot An individual effort (versus organizational effort in Europe)An individual effort (versus organizational effort in Europe) Parties play a minor role (compared with Europe)Parties play a minor role (compared with Europe) Parties used to play a major roleParties used to play a major role
Major differences Major differences Presidential races are more competitive.Presidential races are more competitive.
House races have lately been one-sided for Democrats.House races have lately been one-sided for Democrats. Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of votePresidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of vote Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)
Fewer people vote in congressional electionsFewer people vote in congressional elections Unless election coincides with presidential electionUnless election coincides with presidential election Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)
Congressional incumbents can service their Congressional incumbents can service their constituents.constituents.
Can take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forthCan take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forth President can't: power is not localPresident can't: power is not local
Congressional candidates can duck responsibility.Congressional candidates can duck responsibility. "I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!""I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!" President is stuck with blamePresident is stuck with blame But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic
policies failpolicies fail Benefit of presidential coattails has declinedBenefit of presidential coattails has declined
Congressional elections have become largely independentCongressional elections have become largely independent Reduces meaning (and importance) of partyReduces meaning (and importance) of party
Running for president Running for president Getting mentionedGetting mentioned
Using reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognitionUsing reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognition Sponsoring legislation, governing large stateSponsoring legislation, governing large state
Setting aside time to runSetting aside time to run Reagan: six yearsReagan: six years May have to resign from office firstMay have to resign from office first
MoneyMoney Individuals can give $1,000, political action committees (PACs) Individuals can give $1,000, political action committees (PACs)
$5,000$5,000 Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for
matching grants to pay for primarymatching grants to pay for primary OrganizationOrganization
Need a large (paid) staffNeed a large (paid) staff Need volunteersNeed volunteers Need advisers on issues: position papersNeed advisers on issues: position papers
Strategy and themesStrategy and themes Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack?Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack? Setting the tone (positive or negative)Setting the tone (positive or negative) Developing a theme: trust, confidence, and so onDeveloping a theme: trust, confidence, and so on Judging the timingJudging the timing Choosing a target voter: who's the audience?Choosing a target voter: who's the audience?
Getting elected to Congress Getting elected to Congress
Malapportionment and gerrymandering.Malapportionment and gerrymandering. Establishing the size of the HouseEstablishing the size of the House
Getting elected to Getting elected to CongressCongress
Winning the primaryWinning the primary Ballot proceduresBallot procedures Developing a personal following for the "party's" Developing a personal following for the "party's"
nominationnomination Incumbent advantageIncumbent advantage
Sophomore surgeSophomore surge Using the perquisites (perqs) of officeUsing the perquisites (perqs) of office Campaigning for / against CongressCampaigning for / against Congress
Impact of the way we elect individuals to Impact of the way we elect individuals to CongressCongress Legislators closely tied to local concernsLegislators closely tied to local concerns Weak party leadershipWeak party leadership
Differences between Differences between primary and general primary and general
campaignscampaigns What works in a general election may not work in a primaryWhat works in a general election may not work in a primary
Different voters, workers, and media attentionDifferent voters, workers, and media attention Must mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nominationMust mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nomination Must play to the politics of activistsMust play to the politics of activists
Iowa caucusesIowa caucuses Held in February of general election yearHeld in February of general election year Candidates must do wellCandidates must do well Winners tend to be "ideologically correct"Winners tend to be "ideologically correct" Most liberal Democrat, most conservative RepublicanMost liberal Democrat, most conservative Republican The caucus system: "musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"The caucus system: "musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"
The balancing actThe balancing act Being conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominatedBeing conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominated Move to center to get electedMove to center to get elected True nationwide in states where activists are more polarized than True nationwide in states where activists are more polarized than
average voteraverage voter The "clothespin vote": neither candidate is appealingThe "clothespin vote": neither candidate is appealing
Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the average voteraverage voterExample: McGovern in 1972Example: McGovern in 1972
Two kinds of campaign Two kinds of campaign issues issues
Position issuesPosition issues Valence issuesValence issues
Television, debates, and Television, debates, and direct mail direct mail Paid advertising (spots)Paid advertising (spots)
Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each other outother out
Most voters rely on many sources of information.Most voters rely on many sources of information. News broadcasts (visuals)News broadcasts (visuals)
Cost littleCost little May have greater credibility with votersMay have greater credibility with voters Rely on having TV camera crew aroundRely on having TV camera crew around May be less informative than spotsMay be less informative than spots
DebatesDebates Usually an advantage only to the challengerUsually an advantage only to the challenger Reagan in 1980: reassured votersReagan in 1980: reassured voters Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988
Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debatesRisk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates Ford and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and treesFord and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and trees Forces candidates to rely on stock speechesForces candidates to rely on stock speeches Sell yourself, not your ideasSell yourself, not your ideas
Free television time to major presidential candidates in 1996Free television time to major presidential candidates in 1996 The computerThe computer
Makes direct mail campaigns possibleMakes direct mail campaigns possible Allows candidates to address specific votersAllows candidates to address specific voters Creates importance of mailing listsCreates importance of mailing lists
The gap between running a campaign and running the governmentThe gap between running a campaign and running the government Party leaders had to worry about reelectionParty leaders had to worry about reelection Today's political consultants don'tToday's political consultants don't
MoneyMoneyHow important is it?How important is it?
"Money is the "Money is the mother's milk of mother's milk of politics."politics."
Presidential Presidential candidates spent candidates spent $286 million in $286 million in 1992; up from $177 1992; up from $177 million in 1988million in 1988
Are candidates Are candidates being "sold" like being "sold" like soap? Answer is soap? Answer is not so obviousnot so obvious
The sources of campaign The sources of campaign money money
Presidential primaries: part private, part public Presidential primaries: part private, part public moneymoney
Federal matching fundsFederal matching funds Only match small donors: less than $250; Only match small donors: less than $250;
$5,000 in twenty states$5,000 in twenty states Gives incentive to raise money from small Gives incentive to raise money from small
donorsdonors Government also gives lump-sum grants to Government also gives lump-sum grants to
parties to cover conventionsparties to cover conventions Presidential general elections: all public money Presidential general elections: all public money
Congressional elections: all Congressional elections: all private money private money
From individuals, PACs, and partiesFrom individuals, PACs, and parties Most from individual small donors ($100 Most from individual small donors ($100
to $200 a person)to $200 a person) $1,000 maximum for individual donors$1,000 maximum for individual donors Benefit performances by rock stars, etc.Benefit performances by rock stars, etc. $5,000 limit from PACs$5,000 limit from PACs But most PACs give only a few hundred But most PACs give only a few hundred
dollarsdollars Tremendous PAC advantage to Tremendous PAC advantage to
incumbents: backing the winnerincumbents: backing the winner Challengers have to pay their own way; Challengers have to pay their own way;
only one-sixth from PACsonly one-sixth from PACs
Campaign finance rules Campaign finance rules Watergate Watergate
Dubious and illegal money raising schemesDubious and illegal money raising schemes Democrats and Republicans benefited from unenforceable laws.Democrats and Republicans benefited from unenforceable laws. Nixon's resignation and a new campaign finance lawNixon's resignation and a new campaign finance law
Reform lawReform law Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per election)Set limit on individual donations ($1,000 per election) Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations, but allowed them Reaffirmed ban on corporate and union donations, but allowed them
to raise money through PACsto raise money through PACs Set limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election to individuals, Set limit on PAC donations ($5,000 per election to individuals,
$15,000 per year to a party)$15,000 per year to a party) Federal tax money made available for primaries and general Federal tax money made available for primaries and general
election campaigns. election campaigns. Impact of the lawImpact of the law
Increase in money spent on electionsIncrease in money spent on elections Increase in PAC spendingIncrease in PAC spending Additional problems: independent expenditures and soft moneyAdditional problems: independent expenditures and soft money
Campaign finance reformCampaign finance reform Reforms can have unintended consequencesReforms can have unintended consequences Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002
Ban on soft moneyBan on soft money Increase on individual contributions (to $2,000 per candidate per Increase on individual contributions (to $2,000 per candidate per
election)election) Restrictions on independent expenditures Restrictions on independent expenditures
Money and winning Money and winning During peacetime, presidential elections During peacetime, presidential elections
usually decided by three things:usually decided by three things: Political party affiliationPolitical party affiliation State of the economyState of the economy Character of candidatesCharacter of candidates
Money makes a difference in congressional Money makes a difference in congressional racesraces
Challenger must spend to gain recognitionChallenger must spend to gain recognition Jacobson: big-spending challengers do betterJacobson: big-spending challengers do better Big-spending incumbents also do betterBig-spending incumbents also do better
Party, incumbency, and issues also have a Party, incumbency, and issues also have a rolerole
Advantages of incumbencyAdvantages of incumbency Easier to raise moneyEasier to raise money Can provide services for constituencyCan provide services for constituency Can use franked mailingsCan use franked mailings Can get free publicity through legislation and suchCan get free publicity through legislation and such
What decides elections? What decides elections?
Party identification, Party identification, but why don't but why don't Democrats always Democrats always win?win? Democrats less Democrats less
wedded to their partywedded to their party GOP does better GOP does better
among independentsamong independents Republicans have Republicans have
higher turnouthigher turnout
What decides elections?What decides elections? Issues, especially the economyIssues, especially the economy
V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own V. O. Key: most voters who switch parties do so in their own interestsinterests
They know which issues affect them personallyThey know which issues affect them personally They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, etc.)They care strongly about emotional issues (abortion, etc.)
Prospective votingProspective voting Know the issues and vote for the best candidateKnow the issues and vote for the best candidate Most common among activists and special interest groupsMost common among activists and special interest groups Few voters use prospective voting because it requires Few voters use prospective voting because it requires
information.information. Retrospective votingRetrospective voting
Judge the incumbent's performance and vote accordinglyJudge the incumbent's performance and vote accordingly Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically?Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically? Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and
19921992 Usually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worseUsually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worse Most elections decided by retrospective votesMost elections decided by retrospective votes Midterm election: voters turn against president's partyMidterm election: voters turn against president's party
What decides elections?What decides elections? The campaignThe campaign
Campaigns do make a differenceCampaigns do make a difference Reawaken voters' partisan loyaltiesReawaken voters' partisan loyalties Let voters see how candidates handle Let voters see how candidates handle
pressurepressure Let voters judge candidates' charactersLet voters judge candidates' characters
Campaigns tend to emphasize themes Campaigns tend to emphasize themes over detailsover details True throughout American historyTrue throughout American history What has changed is the importance of What has changed is the importance of
primary elections and tone of campaignsprimary elections and tone of campaigns Theme campaigns give more influence to Theme campaigns give more influence to
single-issue groupssingle-issue groups
What decides elections?What decides elections? Finding a winning coalitionFinding a winning coalition
Ways of looking at various groupsWays of looking at various groups How How loyalloyal, or percentage voting for party, or percentage voting for party How How important, important, or number voting for partyor number voting for party
Democratic coalitionDemocratic coalition Blacks most loyalBlacks most loyal Jews slipping somewhatJews slipping somewhat Hispanics somewhat mixedHispanics somewhat mixed Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition Catholics, southerners, unionists departing the coalition
latelylately Republican coalitionRepublican coalition
Party of business and professional peopleParty of business and professional people Very loyal, defecting only in 1964Very loyal, defecting only in 1964 Usually wins vote of poor because of retired, elderly Usually wins vote of poor because of retired, elderly
votersvoters Contribution to Democratic coalitionContribution to Democratic coalition
Blacks loyal but small proportionBlacks loyal but small proportion
The Effect of Elections The Effect of Elections on Policy on Policy
Political scientists are interested broad trends in Political scientists are interested broad trends in wining and losingwining and losing
Cynics: public policy remains more or less the Cynics: public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in officesame no matter which official or party is in office
Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 19451945
Reply: evidence indicates that many American Reply: evidence indicates that many American elections do make great differences in policyelections do make great differences in policy
Why, then, the perception that elections do not Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter? Because change alternates with matter? Because change alternates with consolidation; most elections are only retrospective consolidation; most elections are only retrospective judgmentsjudgments