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2017

Electric Mobility - Opportunities for India

Where Policy Meets Technology

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Presenter

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Barath Rajagopalan

Divisional Manager – Business Development

Ashok Leyland

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3

Barath Rajagopalan

• 15+ years of experience in automotive industry.

• Bachelors in Mechanical engg. and Masters in

Manufacturing systems engg.

• 10 years of experience in new product program

management at Ashok Leyland.

• Currently in charge of EV business development at Ashok

Leyland.

Energy Crisis The world has 53 years of oil usage left *

* Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2016 (65th Edition)

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Key triggers for faster adoption of

EV’s

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Fluctuating Fuel Price India imports Rs. 5,61,976 Crores of oil equal to Srilanka’s GDP

Increased Air Pollution

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Public Transportation in India – Industry

Snapshot

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Decade Share of buses by volume in total vehicles in India

1951 11.00%

1961 9.00%

1971 5.00%

1981 3.00%

1991 2.00%

2001 1.22%

2011 1.19%

2012 1.10%

2013 1.09%

Source: Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturing (SIAM)

Source: Motor Transport Statistics of India, Ministry of

Shipping, Road Transport & Highways, Government of

India.

66.5

In spite of carrying max. passengers in land based transportation, % of

buses by volume is very low.

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Public Transportation in India –

Air Pollution (CO2 emissions)

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Vehicle pollution comparison

(Per passenger km)

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0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

Bus 2 Wheeler LMV(Passenger)

Cars and Jeep Taxi

CO2 (MT)

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

Bus 2 Wheeler LMV(Passenger)

Cars and Jeep Taxi

PM (GG)

One BUS Co2 emission equals 17.2 two wheelers (or) 37.96 Cars

One Bus PM emission equals 7.9 two wheelers (or) 4.68 Cars

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Pollution – A big issue to tackle

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Accelerated adoption of alternate fuels

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Accelerated adoption of alternate fuels (CNG/LNG/Hybrid/Electric Vehicles)

Green Transport Goals Alternate Technologies 2010 BS III

2017 BS IV

2020 BS VI

2030

Improvement in Energy Efficiency Reduction in air pollution and greenhouse

gases. Increased use of renewable resources Reduced use of non renewable resources Reduced Noise Pollution

Conventional Diesel Vehicles ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺

Alternative fuel technologies - Biofuels, CNG,etc., ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺

Hybrid and plug in Hybrid vehicles - ⁺ ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺

Battery Electric Vehicles - ⁺ ⁺⁺ ⁺⁺⁺⁺

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Smart City and focus on buses

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One Bus Can Replace

1. 44 cars / 55 two

wheelers

2. 1/10 of the car

space

3. 1/3 of the 2

wheeler Space

4. Increased

Efficiency

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Evolution of EV Buses..

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Energy crisis and pollution – Accelerated adoption towards electric and hybrid fleets since 2009.

Key Markets – China , Europe and USA.

Key Policy initiative's and subsidies accelerated growth.

• China subsidies extended till 2020 (Avg. $48,000 to $61,000 per bus)

• Formation of ZeUS in Europe with €22.5 million funding.

• UK - £30.4 million funding for electric mobility in public transportation

• USA - $22.5 million from FTA through Low or No Emission Vehicle Deployment Program

(LoNo) with another $16 million of funding from the California Climate Investment fund for

electric bus.

Evolution in Batteries – Moving towards higher energy density and lower costs

• Over 80% EV market controlled by Li-Ion (LFP chemistry)

• Battery cost at $150 / kwH is expected to be breached by 2018 and widely considered as

the tipping point for mass adoption of EV’s.

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Electric Bus - Major manufacturers and battery technology

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Performance

SpecificEnergy

SpecificPower

Life

Safety

Cost

Performance

Specific Energy

Specific Power

Life

Safety

Cost

Performance

Specific Energy

Specific Power

Life

Safety

Cost

Over

80%

Source : Battery chemistry comparison

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion

LFP LTO NMC

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Current Market Scenario

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China – Global leader in EV sales

• 36,500 EV bus sale in 2015

• 183% CAGR since 2009

Washington DC –

Plying over 400 EV buses. To

increase to 900 buses by 2019.

California–

Inducting 150 EV buses by

2017

Great Britain & EU –

Deploying 600+ EV buses by

2019.

Netherlands

100% EV buses by 2020

South Korea

50% EV fleet by 2020.

India

50+ EV buses in 2017

Over 102 cities around the world have deployed EV buses in pilots/major fleets.

China OE's Sales Figures (EV & Hybrid) (2009 - 2014)

Yutong 15369

King Long 7115

Nanjing KL 9012

Zhongtong 8904

Dongfeng 5761

BYD 5631

China – EV Bus growth story

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Electric Bus – Forecast 2025

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Ashok Leyland

China ~ 28 k (68.7 %)

S.America ~ 2.4 k (5.9 %)

Europe ~ 3.2 k (7.8%)

N.America

~ 1.6 k (4%)

India ~ 3.8 k (9.4%) Other

Markets

~ 1.7 k (4.3 %)

~ 5.7 k in 2015

Legend

% denotes the respective region’s forecast

share of electric buses of totlal global electric

bus sales in 2025 Markets for 10Ton or above (Fully electric buses).

Source : Frost & Sullivan, Strategic Analysis of Global Hybrid and Electric

Heavy-Duty Transit Bus Market , August 2015 Other Markets include Africa, Middle-East, CIS, Asia (Excluding China and India) and Oceania

~ 40.7 k in 2025

40.7 k Electric bus sales in 2025

India expected to be 2nd largest EV bus market after China with TIV of ~3500+ and 9% global share.

Other industry estimates place the figures between 50k to 80k sales by 2025.

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Evolution of Li-ion battery Cost and energy density *

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Notes: USD/kWh = United States dollars per kilowatt-hour; Wh/L = watt-hours per litre. Data is based on an observed industry-wide trend, include useful energy only, refer to battery packs and suppose an annual battery production of 100 000 units for each manufacturer.

* Sources: US DOE (2015 and 2016) for PHEV battery cost and energy density estimates; EV Obsession (2015); and HybridCARS (2015)

Battery cost at $150 / kwH is expected to be breached by

2018 and widely considered as the tipping point for mass adoption of EV’s.

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India – EV policy progression

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National Green Tribunal (NGT) • Recent NGT interventions with respect to

vehicle air pollution cases, including restriction of old vehicles and restriction on the number of vehicles adds further stimulus to alternate fuels.

• Recent ban on diesel vehicle at Rohtang lead to HRTC tender of 25 Electric buses.

Summary • FAME pilot incentive scheme expected to be rolled out by March 2017. Will spur more STU adoption of EV buses. • Pollution becoming a major policy initiative and will pave way for alternate fuels technologies. • MoP initiative on Swap EV Bus – On Fast Track mode

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India’s policy initiatives in EV space

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FAME-India is short for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles in India and part of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan. The scheme, envisages Rs. 795 crore supports for pilot & demand incentive. Formal policy roll out for pilot incentive expected by Dec 2017. Government aims to bring 6-7 million (60-70 lakh) electric and hybrid vehicles on road by 2020 • Government will set up the Governing Council for Electric Vehicles • Operate under the Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises • It will develop infrastructure for electric mobility - charging stations • Council to have representatives from various Ministries – includes Road Transport and Highways,

New and • Renewable Energy and Power and also industry representatives. • Promote Joint Ventures, esp. in EV battery manufacturing & technology transfers.

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India – Happening place for EV’s

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India – Key factors for success

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Price

Falling battery prices

Policy Initiatives to spur “Make in India” program

Range Anxiety

Battery swap

Newer chemistries (LTO) with rapid charging.

Comprehensive maintenance strategy

End to end AMC

Training to mechanics

Charging time

PPP partnerships for establishing country wide charging/swap stations.

PSU’s contribution a major factor.

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THANK YOU

EV Bus Architecture

22

Air Compressor & Steering Systems

Traction motor and controller

Power Distribution Box & Charger Sockets

HV Batteries String 1 & 2

HV Batteries String 3

FDSS