Electric Vehicles in New Zealand:from Passenger to Driver?Scott Lemon, Dr Allan Miller

New Zealand Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGreenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand

Tonnes of greenhouse gases emitted by New Zealand in 2012

76million

New Zealand Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGreenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand

New Zealand Greenhouse Gas EmissionsGreenhouse gas emissions by sector and vehicle type in New Zealand

Electric VehiclesA shortcut to a greener future or just an expensive dead end?

Market Policy Environment

1 2 3

Market

1.1 New Zealand Vehicle FleetPassenger car ownership per 1000 people for OECD countries

Turk

eyChi

le

Mexico

Israe

l

Sout

h Kor

ea

Hunga

ry

Slov

akia

Denm

ark

Esto

nia

Czech

Rep

ublic

Irela

nd

Canad

a

Pola

nd

Japa

n UK

Swed

en

Nethe

rland

s

Norway

Fran

ce

Spai

n

Belgi

um

Greec

e

Germ

any

Switz

erla

nd

Slov

enia

Austri

a

Finla

nd

Austra

lia

New Z

eala

ndIta

lyUSA

Icela

nd

Luxe

mbo

urg

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Country

Passen

ger

Cars

(p

er

1000 p

eop

le)

Highest rate of passenger car ownership in the OECD

5th

Passenger cars per 1000 people in New Zealand60

0

Light passenger vehicles registered in New Zealand

2.6million

1.2 New Zealand Vehicle MarketSales of new and ex-overseas light passenger vehicles in New Zealand

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

New

Ex-overseas

Year

New

Lig

ht

Passen

ger

Veh

icle

Reg

istr

ati

on

s

(th

ou

san

d)

1.3 New Zealand Fleet CompositionAge distribution of passenger vehicles in the New Zealand fleet

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 400

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

Vehicle Age (years)

Nu

mb

er

of

Reg

iste

red

Passen

ger

Veh

icle

s

Average age of a light passenger vehicle in New Zealand in 2011

13.6

years

1.4 Electric Vehicles in the MarketOverview of current generation electric vehicles on the market

Model Year

Type

Body Motor(kW)

Battery(kWh)

Electric Range (km)

Efficiency(kWh/km)

RRP($)

Mitsubishi i-MiEV2012

EV5-door hatchback

47 16 100-160 0.168(NZ)

59990

Nissan LEAF2012

EV5-door hatchback

80 24 115-175 0.189(NZ)

69600

Holden Volt2013

PHEV

5-door hatchback

111 24 50-80 0.25(NZ)

85000

Smart Fortwo ED2013

EV 2-door coupe 35 17.6 140 0.151 -

Toyota RAV4 EV2012

EV 4-door SUV 115 35 165 0.27(US)

49800

Tesla Model S (40kWh)

2012

EV 4-door fastback 175 40 260 0.24(US)

59900

BMW ActiveE2012

EV 2-door coupe 125 32 160 0.14 -

Toyota Prius PHV2013

PHEV

5-door hatchback

60 4.4 20 0.27(US)

32000

Fisker Karma2012

PHEV

4-door sedan 210 20.1 80 0.40(US)

102000

1.5 Cost Analysis – Running CostsComparison of annual yearly fuel costs for different vehicle types

Type Fuel Consumption

(units/km)

Fuel Price (2012)

$NZD/unit

Annual Fuel Cost (2012)$NZD

Petrol - New 0.074 2.13 1923

Petrol - Old 0.088 2.13 2286

Diesel 0.056 1.52 1038

Hybrid 0.039 2.13 1013

Electric – Peak rate 0.19 0.277 643

Electric – Off-peak rate

0.19 0.15 348

Per km for an average petrol vehicle in NZ

18¢Per km for an average hybrid vehicle in NZ

8¢

Per km for an average electric vehicle in NZ

4¢

1.6 Cost AnalysisCumulative cost of owning a petrol, diesel, hybrid and electric vehicle from 2012

1.7 Cost Analysis – Tariffs Cumulative cost of owning an electric vs. petrol vehicle with off-peak charging

1.8 Electric Vehicle Sales in New ZealandAnnual number of registered electric light passenger vehicles in New Zealand

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Year

No.

of

Reg

iste

red

Ele

ctr

ic L

PV

in

New

Zea-

lan

d

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Projec-tion

MOT

Year

No.

of

Reg

iste

red

Ele

ctr

ic L

PV

in

New

Zea-

lan

d

1.9 Electric Vehicle Sales in New ZealandAnnual number of registered electric light passenger vehicles in New Zealand

Of light passenger vehicles sold in 2025 are to be EVs (NZ target)

15%

1.10 Electric Vehicle Sales WorldwideA global comparison of electric vehicle uptake by country

Norw

ay

Est

on

ia

Neth

erl

an

ds

Jap

an

Belg

ium

US

A

Den

mark

Fra

nce

Au

stri

a

Ch

ina

Sw

ed

en

Can

ad

a

UK

Germ

an

y

Irela

nd

Port

ug

al

Italy

Sp

ain

Au

stra

lia

New

Zeala

nd

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

Country

% o

f Ele

ctr

ic V

eh

icle

s in

LP

V F

leet

Policy and Regulation

2.1 Policy and RegulationBreakdown of measures available to governments for stimulating EV adoption

Organisational

Economic Suasive Regulatory

Sales tax Subsidies Bonus/malus Scrappage Annual tax Fuel taxation

Education Standards &

guidelines

Emission targets Vehicle standards

Infrastructure Usage incentives

Free parking HOV lane use

Measures

2.2 Economic Measures – Tax ReductionGlobal overview of countries implementing tax reduction measures for EVs

AustriaBelgiumCzech RepublicDenmarkFinland

FranceGermanyGreeceIndiaIreland

IsraelItalyJapanNetherlandsNorway

SwitzerlandPortugalSouth KoreaSpainSweden

TurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States

2.3 Economic Measures - SubsidiesGlobal overview of countries implementing direct subsidy measures for EVs

CanadaChinaFinlandIndiaIreland

JapanLuxembourgSouth KoreaSpainUnited Kingdom

2.4 Economic Measures - SubsidiesComparison of maximum price subsidy offered and EV uptake rate by country

Country % EVs in LPV

Fleet

Price Offset($USD)

Norway 0.390 20000

Estonia 0.140 24000

Netherlands 0.093 0

Japan 0.047 2700

Belgium 0.035 12250

USA 0.031 7500

Denmark 0.030 30000

France 0.026 8000

Austria 0.022 0

China 0.020 8800

Country % EVs in LPV

Fleet

Price Offset($USD)

Sweden 0.016 600

Canada 0.012 8650

United Kingdom 0.011 8200

Germany 0.011 0

Ireland 0.010 8000

Portugal 0.008 7000

Italy 0.007 0

Spain 0.004 9300

Australia 0.003 0

New Zealand 0.003 0

2.5 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New ZealandViable short-term measures for encouraging EV uptake

Short-term (2012-2015)

Mid-term (2015-2020)

Long-term (2020-)

Suasive/regulatory measures

Increase consumer awareness about importance of fuel economy

Tighten fuel economy standards on imported vehicles

2.6 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New ZealandViable medium-term measures for encouraging EV uptake

Short-term (2012-2015)

Mid-term (2015-2020)

Long-term (2020-)

Organisational measures

Installation of charging stations

Requirement for new homes and car parks to include provision for EVs

Renewable energy and smart grid developments

2.7 Electric Vehicle Incentives in New ZealandViable long-term measures for encouraging EV uptake

Short-term (2012-2015)

Mid-term (2015-2020)

Long-term (2020-)

Economic measures

Aim to increase fleet turnover rate and speed the transition to a greener transportation system

Scrappage schemes and decreased taxes/vehicle charges

Environment

3.1 Light Passenger Vehicle GHG EmissionsAmount of GHG emitted by average light passenger vehicles around the world

Portu

gal

Fran

ceIn

dia

Japa

nIta

ly

Denm

ark

Belgi

umSp

ain

Slov

akia

Pola

nd

Hunga

ry

Switz

erla

nd

Czech

Rep

ublic

Turk

ey

Icela

nd

Slov

enia

Irela

nd

Nethe

rland

s

Austri

a UK

Luxe

mbo

urg

Greec

e

Finla

ndChi

le

Germ

any

Swed

en

Sout

h Kor

ea

Canad

a

Esto

nia

Israe

l

Mexico

Russia

China

New Z

eala

nd

Austra

lia USA

0

50

100

150

200

250

Country

Avera

ge P

assen

ger

Veh

icle

Em

issio

ns

(gC

O2e/k

m)

Of CO2e gas emitted by an average passenger vehicle in New Zealand annually

2.4

tonnes

3.2 Average Grid GHG EmissionsAmount of GHG emitted per unit of residential electricity consumed

Icela

nd

Switz

erla

nd

Norway

Swed

en

Fran

ce

New Z

eala

nd

Austri

a

Canad

a

Belgi

um

Slov

akia

Finla

nd

Spai

n

Portu

gal

Luxe

mbo

urg

Denm

ark

Hunga

ry

Slov

enia

Italy

Nethe

rland

sChi

le

Russia

Japa

n

Germ

any

Mexico

Turk

ey UK

Irela

nd

Sout

h Kor

ea USA

Czech

Rep

ublic

Greec

e

Pola

nd

Israe

l

Austra

lia

China

Esto

niaIn

dia

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Country

Avera

ge G

rid

Em

issio

ns

(gC

O2e/k

Wh

)

Of CO2e gas emitted per kWh of electricity used by households in New Zealand

142

grams

Renewable energy powering the New Zealand grid in 2012

74%

3.3 Average Vehicle EmissionsGreenhouse gas emissions for electric and average fleet vehicles by country

Reduction in average vehicle emissions achievable by switching to EVs in NZ

85%

3.4 Vehicle Lifetime EmissionsCumulative GHG emissions for electric and petrol vehicles over their lifespan

Tonnes of CO2e produced manufacturing an EV

13.1

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

Average EV

Average ICV

Year of Ownership

Cu

mu

lati

ve V

eh

icle

C

O2e E

mis

sio

ns

(kg

)

6.5 Tonnes of CO2e produced manufacturing an ICV

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

EV Market Penetration (%)

Red

ucti

on

in

New

Zeala

nd

's T

ota

lC

O2 E

mis

sio

ns (

%)

3.5 Emission Reduction PotentialTotal greenhouse gas emission reduction based on EV market penetration

Conclusion

MarketNew Zealand’s fleet is old, inefficient and in need of change

EVs are currently too expensive, and the pay-back period too long despite lower operational costs

PolicyTax reductions and price subsidies are commonly used worldwide but are too expensive to justify in New Zealand

The short-term focus should be on improving fuel economy regulations, and educating consumers

EnvironmentEVs can achieve considerable GHG emission reductions in a green power system like New Zealand’sThe main focus worldwide should be increasing the use of renewable energy and preparing the grid so that when the time comes for EVs we are well-prepared

Questions?