electrification and decarbonization -...

© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electrification and Decarbonization

Geoffrey J. Blanford, Ph.D.Technical Executive

Energy and Environmental Analysis, EPRI

Energy and Climate Seminar, Washington, DCMay 10, 2017

2© 2017 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing carbon emissions through electrification

In many cases, replacing fossil fuels with electricity at the end-use results in lower overall carbon emissions– Leverage will only increase with tighter constraints on power sector CO2Key questions:

– What are the potential drivers?– How much fossil use could be cost-effectively replaced by electricity even

without a carbon price?– For the remainder, how does carbon pricing change the equation, i.e.

how does electrification compare with other mitigation options? – In either case, how do we think about adoption and diffusion in the

context of consumer behavior?


Potential Drivers of Electrification

Policy drivers (at federal, state, or local level)– Economy-wide carbon incentives– Sector-specific targets or mandates– Air quality regulations in non-attainment areasNon-policy drivers

– Technological change (e.g., declining battery costs)– Fuel markets– New business models (e.g., autonomous vehicles,

indoor agriculture)– Changing rate structures


Final Energy by Sector / End-Use (2014)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18Q

uad

BTU

s

Electricity Coal Petroleum Natural Gas Bioenergy

* Excludes upstream and midstream energy use, e.g. power generation, oil & gas extraction, refining, and pipelines

Electric Vehicles

Heat Pumps Electric arc furnaces,Infrared drying, etc.

Water heaters, dryers, ranges, etc. Public buses,

Delivery trucks, etc.HVAC, forklifts, etc.

Indoor Ag?


Electrification Prospects by Sector

Transportation– Light duty vehicles– Heavy duty road vehicles– OtherBuildings

– Heat pumps for space heating– Water heaters / dryers / ranges Industry

– Specialized / low-heat process– Boilers / high-heat process– Facility energy use

Scale Potential

//

/

/


US-REGEN End-Use Model

End-Use Simulation ModelChoice by

region/vintage/sector/ class (e.g., climate zone/

consumer type)

Building Data(RECS / CBECS)

Industrial Energy(MECS)

Industrial Mix(IMPLAN)

Hourly Temperature(MERRA)

Vehicle/Driver Data(NHTS)

Service Demands(AEO)

Cost/Performance(EPRI)

Electricity Load Profile

Pacific

US-REGEN Electric Sector

Model

Non-Electric Energy Use

Emissions/ Air Quality

Energy Prices

Updated Electricity

PricesRECS = Residential Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA)CBECS = Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA)MECS = Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (from EIA)IMPLAN = Impact Analysis for Planning (state- and industry-level economic data)MERRA = Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (gridded historical weather data from NASA)NHTS = National Household Transportation Survey (US Department of Transportation)AEO = Annual Energy Outlook (from EIA)


Light-Duty Vehicles

Currently EVs and PHEVs have a very small market share but may be on the cusp of much more widespread deployment– Technology is moving fast, especially battery costs– Autonomous vehicle service could change the landscape dramaticallySignificant customer heterogeneity

– Urban / Suburban / Rural– Low / Medium / High annual mileage– Single / multiple car households– Attitude / Access to electric charging / ride serviceModel trade-offs including economic and non-economic factors


-$1,500

-$1,000

-$500

$0

$500

$1,000

PHEV-10 PHEV-20 PHEV-40 EV-100 EV-150 EV-250

Annu

alize

d Co

st D

elta

vs I

CEV

Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV

Electric Vehicle Cost Delta vs Conventional Vehicle- EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) - ORNL estimates of behavioral costs - current fuel prices + $100/tCO2

Median consumer type


Electric vehicles may not work for all consumer types

-$1,500

-$500

$500

$1,500

$2,500

$3,500

$4,500

$5,500

PHEV-10 PHEV-20 PHEV-40 EV-100 EV-150 EV-250

Annu

alize

d Co

st D

elta

vs I

CEV

Purchase Price Behavioral Maintenance Fuel Carbon Net Delta vs ICEV

Rural, high mileage, late majority, high electricity price consumer type

- EPRI assumptions about vehicle costs for 2030 (no incentives) - ORNL estimates of behavioral costs - current fuel prices + $100/tCO2


Modeling Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous Vehicle Service

Private Vehicle Ownership

ICEV Electric

PHEV EV

Typical weekday distribution of vehicle miles traveled (based on NHTS, 2009)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Pe

rcen

t of D

aily

VM

T by

hou

rHours (typical weekday)

Household-level Decision


Electric Heating in Buildings

Currently about 1/3 of residential buildings in the US have electricity as the main heat source, according to EIA surveys– Concentrated in regions with mild climates / favorable relative fuel

prices, e.g. Florida and Pacific NW– Higher shares in smaller housing units / recent vintages– 25% share of floorspace in commercial buildingsNew opportunities for air source heat pump (ASHP) technologyWe model the economic trade-offs for ASHP vs. conventional

furnace (+ A/C) in each region / climate zone based on temperature profile and retail fuel prices


120°W 110°W 100°W 90°W 80°W 70°W

45°N

40°N

35°N

30°N

25°N

Heating/Cooling Zones based on HDD × CDD

CDD

HDD

Based on hourly temperature data in NASA

MERRA2 dataset


Distribution across US of Electric Heating Cost Premium

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 50 100 150 200

Cost

Pre

miu

m fo

r Ele

ctric

Hea

ting

($ p

er y

ear)

Cumulative square footage installing new equipment 2015-2030 (billions)

Based on today’s fuel prices and new vintage technology

Areas where electric heating has the

lowest total costs

Areas where electric heating has a cost

premium relative to gas

FloridaPacific

SE-CentralMtn-S

CaliforniaTexas SW-CentralS-Atlantic

Mid-Atlantic

New York

Mtn-N

NW-Central

NE-CentralNew England


Higher carbon prices more electric heating in the money

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 50 100 150 200

Cost

Pre

miu

m fo

r Ele

ctric

Hea

ting

($ p

er y

ear)

Cumulative square footage installing new equipment 2015-2030 (billions)

$0/tCO2

$100/tCO2

$200/tCO2

$300/tCO2

Based on carbon-adjusted fuel prices and new vintage technology

FloridaPacific SE-Central Mtn-S

California

TexasSW-Central

S-Atlantic

Mid-Atlantic

New York

Mtn-N

NW-Central

NE-CentralNew England


0

10

20

30

40

J F M A M J J A S O N D

GWEffect of Electrification on Load Shapes

Space Heating

Space Cooling

Non-Seasonal

• As end-use mix changes, relative size of heating and cooling vs. non-seasonal loads will result in potentially very different aggregate profile / alignment with renewables

• New shapes will be introduced, in particular vehicle charging

• Result could improve or exacerbate generation asset utilization

• Better resource integration could allow more flexibility in demand response

Florida 2010

Preliminary: Subject to further calibration

High Electric Heating Share, Mild Climate


Key Insights and Ongoing Research

What is the role of the electric sector along potential pathways for energy system transformation?– Significant potential to reduce non-electric fossil fuel use and emissions

through increased electric share, especially in vehicles and buildings– Some energy applications unlikely to be electrified even with carbon

policy incentives, e.g. aviation, heavy industry, heating in cold climates– Need to ensure that policies, regulations, and rate structures align

incentives for electrification where appropriate– First-order electric system impacts: need integrated modeling approachNational Electrification Assessment: EPRI study Dec 2017


Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity

electrification and decarbonization -...

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