electrifying the uk automotive propulsion supply chain · 2020. 3. 10. · public future powertrain...
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![Page 1: Electrifying the UK Automotive Propulsion Supply Chain · 2020. 3. 10. · Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020 G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 9](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052020/6034199cf9218316341988c9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
G. Ragowsky
AVL List GmbH (Headquarters)
Public
Electrifying the UK
Automotive Supply
ChainFPC2020
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 2Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
AVL Facts
RESEARCH of turnover in-houseR&D
INNOVATION 1,500granted patents
ENGINEERS andSCIENTISTS
1995 0.15 billion €
2018 1.75 billion €
Plan 2019
1.98 billion €
STAFF10,400 employees
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT45 Affiliates 40 Tech & Engineering Centers
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
10% 65% 70 YEARS OFEXPERIENCE
POWERTRAIN ELEMENTS 5
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 3Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Details of our project tasks (2018/19)
Target Sizing of opportunities for UK suppliers in advanced powertrain technologies
Methodology
Team www.apcuk.co.uk www.avl.com
Strategic Study to Guide Advanced Propulsion Supply Chain Development in the UK
market scenarios
opportunities for UK players
portfolio analysis
value chains
Sizing of opportunities and provide guidance to strategic investment decisions
As of today:
AVL study results have been used by APC as a starting point and further developed.
Overall target
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 4Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
xEV penetration rate [%]xEV penetration rate [%]
Different electrification penetration rates: AVL (progressive) vs. IHS (conservative)
90
100
68
84
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2015 2020 2025 2030
51
25
32
Sources: AVL, IHS Q4/2018
xEV penetration rate [%]
UK NAFTAEU 28
97100
4
33
40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2015 2020 2025 2030
1
57
11
2
91
100
2
90
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2015 2020 2025 2030
2725
80
xEV penetration rate [%]
China
1
74
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2015 2020 2025 2030
10
52
AVL
IHS
AVL
IHS
AVL
IHS IHS
Note: xEV = MHEV, FHEV, PHEV, BEV, Fuel Cell!
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 5Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Assumptions for cost calculationsSelection of vehicle segment
01
Fuel cell
1
BEV
5
MHEVPHEV
223
FHEV
100 0
21 0 1
13
8
20
2
10
6
2
A Segment
D SegmentB Segment
E SegmentC Segment
F Segment
2025 distribution of vehicle segments1
(all regions)
in millions
1…IHS database Q4/2018
As C-segment is the vehicle sales segment with highest numbers throughout the regions in focus, market sizing will consider C-segment costs!
<< 1 million
Sizing of components
2025 distribution of vehicle segments1
(all regions)
Sizing of components
E-motors:
Batteries:
Power electronics:
20 110kW
kWh0,8 50
Inverter, DC-DC converter, charger (7&15 kW)
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 6Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Market scenarios
Sources: AVL, IHS Q4/2018, Passenger cars only; 1…assumes each electrified vehicle contains power electronics and one electric machine
Increase of electrification components in EU28
20%
80%
Electrified
Conventional
90%
10%
Conventional
Electrified
Technology shares:
2019:
2025:
2019 2025
Battery demand [GWh]
+425%
2019 2025
Electrical machine volume1
+367%
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 7Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
BatteryValue chain and value shares
7 5
9
6
7
4
4
3
8
4
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
ste
p 1
ste
p 1
0
ste
p 5
ste
p 2
ste
p 8
1
ste
p 2
9
ste
p 1
9
2
01
ste
p 1
7
ste
p 3
1
ste
p 4
2
14
ste
p 3
1
ste
p 6
tota
l
ste
p 3
8
2
ste
p 3
9
10
ste
p 4
0
00
ste
p 4
1
1
ste
p 2
1
ste
p 3
4
10
0
ste
p 4
4
ste
p 3
7
0
ste
p 4
5
ste
p 3
5
ste
p 3
3
0
ste
p 4
6
0
ste
p 4
7
21
ste
p 3
2
ste
p 3
0
ste
p 2
8
ste
p 2
6
00
ste
p 2
5
ste
p 2
4
ste
p 2
7
0
ste
p 2
3
2
ste
p 2
0
ste
p 2
2
0
21
0
ste
p 1
6
0
ste
p 1
5
ste
p 3
6
1
ste
p 1
4
2
2
2
ste
p 1
8
ste
p 1
3
ste
p 1
2
0
ste
p 1
11
ste
p 4
3
ste
p 9
ste
p 7
1
ste
p 4
75% Cell 10% Module 15% Pack
Valu
e s
hare
in %
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 8Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
On a UK level we have assessed the opportunities and picked 12 of what seem to be the most attractive ones for further analysis
Portfolio assessments
highlow
low
high
Market
att
racti
ven
ess
Margin attractiveness
highlow
low
high
Tech
no
log
yatt
racti
ven
ess
Competitive attractiveness
highlow
low
high
Cu
rren
t sta
te
Ease of implementation
Can do (case by case)
Must do
Don’t doCan do
(case by case)
highlow
low
high
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 9Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Assumptions for battery capacity demand
1. Assumptions taken for battery capacity (in kWh) for different powertrain types (BEV, PHEV, FHEV, MHEV)
2. Number of vehicles w/ certain powertrain type from market scenario (See work-package 1)
3. No consideration of different cell formats, e.g. cylindrical vs. pouch
4. Non-automotive demand for Li-Io batteries not considered
AssumptionsPass car battery capacity demand (in GWh)1:According to avicenne energy, the future non-automotive demand for Li-Io batteries might be in the same order of magnitude as the automotive demand
65
369
95
119
2018
10
2025
85
474
UK
EU w/o UK
other regions
Installed lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity, Q1 2017 (in GWh)2:
Investment in battery (cell) production in Europe announced3:
1…AVL; 2…https://data.bloomberglp.com/bnef/sites/14/2017/07/BNEF-Lithium-ion-battery-costs-and-market.pdf 3…Various sources, all public domain, 4…jrc – Joint Research Centre
17,016,0
8,58,4
7,56,06,0
3,02,52,42,32,1
22,0
LG ChemBYD
PanasonicAESCCATL
Guoxuan High-TechSamsung SDI
LishenCBAKCALB
LEJWanxiang
Other
MakerCapacity [GWh]
Investment[m EUR]
CATL 14 to 100 240 (For 14 GWh)
Northvolt 32 3,500 to 4,200
Tesla n.a. n.a.
BMZ et al 8 1,200
SK Innovation 7,5 n.a.
LG Chem 4 n.a.
Samsung SDI 3 300 to 400
Demand of 105 GWh for EU could be covered by ~50 to 100% by EU production (Today’s production ass. is ~ 5 GWh)4.
Open:• Uncertainty of CATL’s plans
(Strong impact)• Business as usual (Supply
from other regions)• Evolution of battery demand
(Based on scenario from work-package 1)
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 10Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Electrolyte landscape
1. Assumptions taken for electrolyte demand (in kt) for different powertrain types and their battery sizes
2. Number of vehicles w/ certain powertrain type from market scenario (See work-package 1)
3. Non-automotive demand for electrolyte not considered
AssumptionsPass car electrolyte demand (in kt)1:According to avicenne energy, the future non-automotive demand for electrolytes might be in a similar order of magnitude as the automotive demand
49
280
72
2018
115
8
2025
64
360
UK
EU w/o UK
other regions
Regional production, demand and major suppliers in 2015/20162:
Production capacity:
1…AVL;
2…https://www.google.at/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwipq8Da38LhAhVwlIsKHdZ2BNsQFjAAegQIAxAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fec.europa.eu%2Fjrc%2Fsites%2Fjrcsh%2Ffiles%2Fjrc105010_161214_li
-ion_battery_value_chain_jrc105010.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1Dc_yuNecWMIYiiOQ0jlLl; 3…http://www.nbdpress.com/articles/2018-09-28/5413.html
Region Major supplier(s)Production
[kt]Demand
[kt]
Japan Mitsub. Chemical, Ube, Guasa 12 14
South Korea LG Chem 9 22
China Capchem … (many) 40 25
USA Johnson controls, 3M 1.1 <1
EUBASF (Sold business to
Capchem)0.1 <0.5
SUM ~62 ~62
Available production capacity in the range of 140 kt. Current utilization only around 40%.
The full capacity for automotive electrolyte is estimated to be necessary in years 2021 to 2022 using market scenarios from work-package 1 (Assuming constant annual growth rates).
(De) investments3:
1. BASF sold its electrolyte business (est. capacity 200 t/a) to Capchem for 1.2 m EUR (Including customer base …) – 1 kt for 6 m EUR
2. Capchem announced investment in Poland for 40 kt electrolyte, investment almost 50 m EUR – 1 kt for 1.2 m EUR
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G. Ragowsky | Product Portfolio Management | 04 März 2020 | 11Public Future Powertrain Conference 2020
Final statements
electrification is growing
time to act is now
supply chain is changing
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www.avl.com