electrochromic glass and film markets 2016-2023 slides

Electrochromic Glass and Film Markets2016-2023

Nano-865

Issued December 2015

n-tech Research

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About n-tech Research

n-tech ResearchPO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058

Phone: 804-938-0030



• The rebrand of industry analyst firm NanoMarkets founded back in 2004

• Specialization in analyzing and forecasting market opportunities arising from advances in and application

of advanced materials. Special focus on functional and smart materials and coatings and their impact on

markets

• Provide full length market reports, focused subject matter analysis and individualized consulting

engagements with emphasis on providing customer focused analytical content solutions

• Global client roster ranging from top tier multinational firms to start ups, research institutes and technology

transfer offices

• Founders have decades of experience in producing analysis of emerging technologies and markets

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Electrochromic Glass and Film Markets 2016-2023

Electrochromic (EC) glass has built up an established niche market for automotive mirrors, but n-tech Research'slatest analysis underscores the attractive revenue opportunities for EC glass in smart windows in both architectureand transportation.

Customers are becoming more receptive to messaging beyond energy efficiency, into more holistic cost comparisonstied to alternative glass systems with investments in shading, lighting, and heating and cooling. More customers alsoare "getting it" about connecting the dots from daylighting and interior building comfort to occupant productivity.Supporting these observations, project pipelines at Sage and View have doubled in the past year, which also providesmore reference points and de-risking for future customers of EC glass.

Meanwhile, EC technology and production continues to incrementally improve as companies learn more about howto better work with and scale up familiar processes and technologies. One area of emphasis has been in systemcontrols for the glass itself, which invokes favorable ties to the Internet-of-Things (IoT) meme, which we see as aneeded future direction for smart materials in general.

n-tech has covered smart glass across various sectors for more than seven years, through which we have acquired adeep understanding of the dynamics of the various markets and technologies, including how the EC glass sectoroperates. We believe this report will be valuable for business strategists, market planners, and product managementin the glass and specialty chemical industries, as well as at smart glass start-ups.

About the Report


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Applications and Markets

This report identifying and quantifying existing and evolving opportunities over the coming eight-year period in the following sectors:

- Residential windows- Commercial windows- Automotive windows- Automotive mirrors- Aerospace

Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass and Film

This includes granular eight-year forecasts in both volume and value terms, with breakouts by:- End applications- Technology platforms, glass and film-based

We also discuss changing manufacturing patterns within the EC glass business, and why we continue to anticipate changes at the manufacturing level that eventually should prove critical to the commercial future of EC glass.

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Profiles of Key Players

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Coverage and Plan


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Asahi GlassBoeingChromogenicsContinental Automotive SystemsCorningE-Chromic TechnologiesEControl-GlasFuyaoGentexGesimatGuardianHelioTrope TechnologiesMagna InternationalMerckNext EnergyNexTintNSG/PilkingtonPPGSage ElectrochromicsSaint-GobainSunPartnerSwitch MaterialsTeslaView

Plan of the Report

• In the Executive Summary we present a summation of our forecasts and analysis and in Chapter One we set the stage for the report along with providing the scope, objectives of the report

• Chapter Two of this report focuses on technology and materials topics relevant to EC glass markets, including EC itself as well as discussion of other competitive technologies.

• In Chapter Three we look at the end markets for EC glass, including our eight-year forecasts.

• Chapter Four includes our updated profiles of the leading EC glass firms: their technologies, product and market strategies, financial status, etc. This includes analysis of the EC supply chain structure and evolution.

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Chapter Three: Status of Electrochromic Glass Markets3.1 EC Commercialization: Who Needs What3.2 EC Windows in Buildings and Construction3.3 Eight-Year Forecasts of Electrochromic Materials in Smart Windows3.4 EC Glass and Automotive Markets3.5 Eight-Year Market Forecast of EC Glass Smart Windows and Smart Mirrors for Automotive and Public Transportation3.6 Smart Windows in Aerospace: Extending the Automotive Model3.7 Electrochromic Glass in Consumer Electronics3.8 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Chapter Four: Update on EC Glass and Film Suppliers4.1 Sage Electrochromics4.2 View4.3 Gentex4.4 ChromoGenics4.5 Continental Automotive Systems4.6 EControl-Glas4.7 e-Chromic Technologies4.8 Gesimat4.9 NexTintAcronyms and Abbreviations Used In this ReportAbout the Authors

Top Level Table of Contents


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Executive SummaryE.1 Electrochromic Glass: Changes in End MarketsE.2 Self-Dimming Options: Why EC is Still WinningE.3 Companies to Watch in Electrochromic Glass and FilmE.4 Summary of Forecasts for EC Glass

Chapter One: Introduction1.1 Background to This Report1.2 Objective and Scope of This Report1.3 Methodology of this Report1.4 Forecasting Methodology1.5 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Update and Review of Electrochromic Glass Technology2.1 A Generic Materials Platform2.2 Electrochromic Glass and Film2.3 Manufacturing Developments: Still Waiting in the Wings2.4 Electrochromic Materials for Smart Windows2.5 Latest Research into EC Glass and Films2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter

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Table of Figures


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Exhibit E-1: Comparison of Smart Windows Materials and Technologies.Exhibit E-2: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass Markets ($ Millions)Exhibit 2-1: Materials Platform Evolution in the Electrochromic Windows MarketExhibit 3-1: Customer Choice Possibilities in the Smart Windows Materials Markets.Exhibit 3-2: Building Codes Promoting the Use of Smart Windows.Exhibit 3-3: Trends in Green Building Regulations.Exhibit 3-4: Overall Addressable Market for EC Glass.Exhibit 3-5: Eight-Year Forecast of Worldwide Construction Glass by Type of BuildingsExhibit 3-6: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass Smart Windows in Residential Buildings by Substrate and Type of Building.Exhibit 3-7: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass Smart Windows in Commercial Buildings by Substrate and Type of Building.Exhibit 3-8: Eight-Year Forecast of EC Glass Smart Windows in Construction Markets by Major Geographical Regions ($ Millions)Exhibit 3-9: Value-Added Features for EC Automotive Mirrors and Possible Extensions.Exhibit 3-10: Worldwide Automotive Glass Production.Exhibit 3-11: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Smart Windows in Automotive by Type of Technology/Vehicle Type.Exhibit 3-12: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass and Film in Automotive by Major Geographical Regions ($ Millions)Exhibit 3-13: Forecast of Smart Mirror Technologies in Automotive Applications (including cost of integration)Exhibit 3-14: Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Smart Windows for Aerospace Applications Exhibit 3-15: Eight-Year Forecast of EC Glass by Primary Substrate Materials ($ Millions)

Market Forecast

• n-tech continues to see the brightest future for EC technology insmart windows. This sector is still relatively tiny today, but we seeit growing substantially over the next several years. We see smartwindows in buildings surging from barely $40 million today tonearly $500 million by 2019.

• Automotive smart windows will come along more slowly but wesee this sector approaching $500 million as well, by the end ofour eight-year forecast period. More novel applications are stillbeing evaluated, such as for camera assemblies in mobile devices,where potential addressable markets could be massive withbillions of annual shipments.

• Customers evaluating smart windows have become morereceptive over the past year or two to understanding a broadercost-comparison of not just glass but at avoided up-front costs,such as shading systems, interior lighting, and downsized HVACinvestments. Compared on that level, EC firms say they are nowmatching or even winning the business case.

• • ROI of the glass itself is still something of a touchy subject; costsare still far higher for EC (we're hearing 2x vs. low-end staticglass). Nevertheless, there are incremental improvements here ascompanies get more comfortable with and keep scaling up theirproduction efforts.

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$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Eight-Year Forecasts for EC Glass Markets ($ Millions)

Residential windows Commercial windows Automotive windows

Automotive mirrors Aerospace

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Comparison of Smart Windows Materials and Technologies


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Electrochromic Photochromic Thermo-chromic PDLC SPD Micro-blinds Hydrogels Electrophoretics

Status Increasingly dominant Niche Niche with limited

dimming capabilities

Likely limited to privacy

glass only

Widely licensed, but

mainly used in autos

Still in lab Still in lab Still in lab

Active/Passive Active Passive Passive Active Active Active Passive, but

potentially active

Active

Materials Polymers and transition

metal oxides

Photochromic film,

hybrid materials,

catalytic platforms

Enormous potential

range. Vanadium

dioxide often

referenced, but seldom

used

Liquid crystals of various

kinds

Polyiodide and

similar materials in a

polymer film

Chromium blinds, but

other materials are

possible

Hydrogels Electrophoretic

materials, E-paper

Opportunities EC seems to have more

practical materials

platforms that can be

commercialized

New sales

territories; more

hybrid solutions

New materials

platforms have

considerable

opportunities

Better power

consumption, PDLC/EC

hybrids, reverse PDLCs,

etc.

Limited by RFI

franchise,

but better materials

are being sought out

Ultimate mechanical blind.

Likely to try many new

materials

Multi-functional

windows

E-paper firms can

diversify from displays

Main

developers

Sage, View, Others SWITCH Materials,

Fraunhofer ISE

Pleotint, RavenWindow Toray, NSG RFI, Hitachi NRC Universities and

research institutes

Research groups, HP,

Merck

Advantage Good switching times

and low power

consumption

Unclear— maybe

price

Low price and easy to

integrated into IGUs

Switching times and

level of light blocking.

Especially suitable for

large panels. PDLC can

be applied as retrofit

Supposedly

compares favorably

with EC

Possible interesting color

effects, but advantages not

clear yet

Well developed

technology may be

easy to implement

Dis-advantage Switching can take

several minutes and is

uneven. Never

completely opaque

Passive technology Passive technology High cost. Only on-off

state and limited to

indoors

High-cost. Needs

battery power. Blue

tinge

Not well developed

commercially. May be

issues around mechanical

nature of technology

Early stage Early stage

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Customer Issues in EC Glass


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Customer Choice Possibilities in the Smart Windows Materials Markets

Options Influencing factors Emerging Opportunities Key Competitive Factors

Retrofit window

film vs. smart

windows

Retrofit window film is a large and

mature market, but markets looking

for more protection and control need

smart windows

All smart windows technologies are economic

substitutes for retrofit window film. Dynamic

windows technologies promoted by rising real

energy prices, zero-energy homes and LEED

designs.

Cost of retrofit film is hard to beat. Also, many

smart window technologies are not available as

retrofits. Also, while retrofit film has fixed

properties, there are many kinds of retrofit film

Passive vs. active

smart windows

Does the extra control associated

with active glass pay off in terms of

either money or additional control.

Active glass may also require retrofit

wiring, which can be expensive and

awkward

Minimizing the cost of additional electronics

for active smart windows. Passive smart

windows is a good match with passive solar

Can the additional cost of active smart windows

be justified? Is there enough interest in light

control for comfort requirements including glare

and thermal controls

Electrochromic or

other smart glass

Electrochromic glass is the dominant

smart glass technology

Most non-EC smart windows technologies are

aimed at particular niches. Breaking out of

those niches may be an opportunity

There are a number of competitive dimensions

around which various smart windows materials

platforms can compete. Price and switching

times seem most able to define the addressable

market

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Key Takeaways


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The most important opportunity in smart windows materials will be in the area of electrochromics, with electrochromic material being available as either coated glass or coated film. EC windows are shipping now, and revenues are now overtaking those of SPD windows.

EC windows appear to be adequate along a number of parameters, at least for buildings. For example, EC windows are reported as blocking as much as 98 percent of direct sunlight, and switching times have improved considerably in recent years.

Customer activity for EC smart windows is picking up; both Sage and View have doubled their project pipelines in the past year, each now with over 100 in the planning and development stages. Suppliers say they can market EC glass based on its performance and value (or at least perceived value) on a number of fronts.

Project installations are not only growing in number, they are also getting bigger. Many recently completed and in the pipeline are in the tens of thousands of square feet of EC glass, instead of one or two thousand sq. feet

What seems to be increasingly resonating with customers is steering conversations into a more holistic up-front cost comparison with higher-performance low-e glass systems. We've heard such comparisons can actually go in EC glass' favor when tallying up all the associated costs with non-dynamic glass, such as manual shading (e.g. blinds) and even larger HVAC systems.

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Key Takeaways


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Energy efficiency is taking something of a back seat with EC glass customer discussions; we're hearing this by itself doesn't"pencil out" as well in EC's favor. That said, in some cases where buildings need to meet specific "green" codes or mandates,dynamic glass can help designers achieve that while preserving the freedom to use desired amounts of glass.

In automotive, EC glass mirrors are not growth market, but to combat the threat of camera-based systems, is to serve as an early example of multifunctional glass systems, primarily in combination with embedded electronics, to preserve value and margins.

Smart automotive windows have been a small niche, and EC glass could make more inroads here at the expense of SPD technology if its response times could continue to improve.

For EC windows in an aviation context given the comparably small number of planes and windows where it could be used and the long timelines for commercialization and plane lifetimes, we don’t see great prospects in the aerospace sector.

A potentially vast end-market might be in mobile devices, where EC glass could be used as a micro-iris in the camera lens of smartphones and tablets, as a low-power component that could enable a thinner form factor—both of which are extremely valuable to device OEMs. As yet, however, this technology is only at the research stage.

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