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EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT Michael Liebreich Chairman of the Advisory Board Twitter: @mliebreich London 11 October 2016

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Page 1: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT

Michael Liebreich

Chairman of the Advisory Board

Twitter: @mliebreich

London

11 October 2016

Page 2: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

1Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

The world must

achieve greenhouse

gas neutrality some

time in the second half

of the century

Paris Agreement

December 2015

Picture: UNFCCC

PARIS – LONG TERM VISION

Page 3: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

2Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

PARIS – HIGH HOPES

The Paris Agreement is a monumental

triumph for people and our planet.

Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG

This is a turning point. This gives us the best

possible shot to save the one planet we got.

Barack Obama, US President

Today's agreement signals nothing less

than a renaissance for humankind.

Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly

Together we have opened the door to a

sustainable and climate-safe future for all.

Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC

It is a sign of hope. It can have a

positive influence on the living

conditions of billions of people.

Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany

The Paris Agreement has been an

unprecedented historic success.

Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for

Climate Action and Energy

Page 4: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

3Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Historical emissions

Pre-COP21 pledges

Page 5: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

4Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Historical emissions

INDC trajectory

Pre-COP21 pledges

Page 6: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

5Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Historical emissions 2 C trajectory

INDC trajectory

Pre-COP21 pledges

Page 7: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

6Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

0

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 8: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

7Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

1975

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 9: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

8Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1980 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

1980

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 10: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

9Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1985 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

1985

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 11: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

10Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1990 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

1990

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 12: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

11Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1995 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

1995

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 13: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

12Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2000

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 14: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

13Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2005 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2005

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 15: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

14Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2010 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2010

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 16: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

15Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2015 (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2015

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

Page 17: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

16Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2015

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

BNEF 2040

Page 18: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

17Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2015

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

BNEF 2040

IEA 450ppm

2040

Page 19: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

18Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA

GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)

10,000

5,000

1,000

2015

Renewable energy

Natural gas

OilCoal

Nuclear

BNEF 2040

IEA 450ppm

2040

Illustrative

Paris scenario

before 2100

Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro.

Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture.

Page 20: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

19Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

We need an

energy miracle

Picture: Bloomberg

ENERGY MIRACLE

Bill Gates

February 2016

Page 21: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

20Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

3.1%

6.3%

12.5%

25.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

RENEWABLES SHARE OF GENERATION, 2000–15 (% OF SYSTEM TOTAL)

Note: Y-axes are logarithmic with base 2 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, UNEP

WIND

Four

doublings

SOLAR

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

3.1%

6.3%

12.5%

25.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Seven

doublings

0.05%

0.03%

0.01%15 years 15 years

Page 22: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

21Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Peru

Enel Green Power

February 2016

2017

US$ 4.8 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons

Page 23: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

22Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Coahuila, Mexico

Enel Green Power

March 2016

2018

US$ 3.6 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons

Page 24: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

23Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Dubai

Masdar Consortium

May 2016

2019

US$ 2.99 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons

Page 25: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

24Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Morocco

Enel Green Power

January 2016

2018

US$ 3.0 c/kWh

Location:

Bidder:

Signed:

Construction:

Price:

Chile

Solarpack Corporation

August 2016

2019

US$ 2.91 c/kWh

2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons

Page 26: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

25Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES

Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.4/W

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock

Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt

(bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

1976

1985

2003

2012

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2016

2008

SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)NORTHERN EUROPE ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED

COST ($/MWH)

Learning rate 24.3%

y = 3,582.42x-0.30

R² = 0.91

16

32

64

128

256

512

1,024

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

1985

2025

2016

Learning rate = 19%

1999

2009

WIND COSTS HAVE

FALLEN

50% SINCE 2009

SOLAR COSTS HAVE

FALLEN

>99% SINCE 1976

90% since 2009

Page 27: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

26Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Averages are capacity-weighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using

real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy

Finance

GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS, 1997-2015 (%)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020

Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada

299MW

Page 28: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

27Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: X-axis denotes commissioning date, bubble size denotes project capacity. A project-weighted average was used for projects with multiple turbine

models. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

OFFSHORE TURBINE CAPACITY BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 1995-2025 (MW)

Page 29: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

28Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS

LONGER BLADESLOW-WIND TURBINES

AT HIGH-WIND SITES

SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES HIGHER TOWERS

Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas

Page 30: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

29Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED)

Solar PV

(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)

Onshore Wind

(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)

: non-tariff price signals

: tariffs

: auctions

KEY

EMEA

Other LatAm

Brazil

India

South Africa

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

+3+2+10-1-2-3

- 30% - 50%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

+3+2+10-1-2-3

- 35% - 60%

Page 31: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

30Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

$62bn

$88bn

$128bn

$175bn

$206bn $207bn

$274bn

$318bn$297bn

$272bn

$316bn$329bn

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly

statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE, CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS ROSE FASTERGLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS 2004-15

87GW

20GW

“Spend more,

get more”

“Spend the same,

get more”

147GW

Investment

+431%

Installations

+635%

Page 32: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

31Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, 2008–15 ($BN)

Renewables ex large hydro

Fossil fuel

Nuclear

Large hydro

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 33: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

32Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT BY REGION 2004-2015 ($BN)

5.611.9

29.133.2

35.5

23.9

34.7

49.140.6

35.337.0

44.1

'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15

United States

0.83.15.2

11.411.8

7.97.210.2

7.74.4

8.07.1

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Brazil

1.73.33.75.06.15.5

12.09.3

10.112.0

13.3

12.8

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

AMER (excl. US & Brazil)

24.833.3

46.9

66.8

81.882.7

113.4122.9

89.0

60.062.0

48.8

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Europe

7.39.010.012.413.613.919.3

23.8

30.2

44.4

48.847.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

ASOC (excl. China & India)

3.08.3

11.216.7

25.6

38.839.6

47.461.7

62.0

87.8

102.9

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

China

2.73.04.96.75.64.38.8

12.87.86.68.3

10.2

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

India

0.60.81.11.82.31.64.13.0

10.29.37.912.5

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Middle East & Africa

Page 34: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

33Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

401

87

0

187

5

188

0

188

5

189

0

189

5

190

0

190

5

191

0

191

5

192

0

192

5

193

0

193

5

194

0

194

5

195

0

195

5

196

0

196

5

197

0

197

5

198

0

198

5

199

0

199

5

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

Note: Includes NGL and processing gain, but excludes biofuels

Source: IEA; CDIAC; BP; Bloomberg New

Energy Finance

GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS(GIGATONNES CO2/YEAR)

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%

30

32

34

36

5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

2012

20

13

20

14

2015

5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%

Global GDP growth (real)

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34Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: BNEF; OECD; UN; UNFCCC

TRENDS IN GLOBAL ECONOMY, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS

2000-2015

(emissions +40%)

2015-2030

(emissions flat)

2015-2030

(emissions -20%,

in line with 2°C as

expressed in the

Paris Agreement)

Index (2000 = 100)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2005 2010 2015

Population

GDP

Emissions

Energy- related

emissions Population x x x= GDP

Capita

Energy

GDP

Emissions

Energy

1.2%1.5%

-0.5%0.0%

1.0%1.5%

-1.20% -1.20%

1.0%1.5%

-2.00% -2.00%

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35Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GLOBAL EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF POWER GENERATION AND SHARE OF ELECTRICITY IN FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CAIT, BP Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CAIT, BP

EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF POWER

GENERATION (TCO2E/MWH)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

ELECTRICTY SHARE IN FINAL

ENERGY CONSUMPTION (%)

On current trend it

will take 150 years

to decarbonise

power generation

And 332 years to

fully electrify

energy the global

energy system

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36Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy

storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGYQ1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN)

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37Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

ItalySpain

DenmarkFranceUnited KingdomGermany

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

QUARTERLY NEW INVESTMENT – EUROPEAN COUNTRIESQ1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN)

Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects

(reported in annual statistics only). Excludes investment in nuclear.

$2.6bn $2.6bn

$0.7bn $0.03bn

$0.6bn$2.7bn

$0.3bn $0.4bn $0.2bn $0.1bn

$0.2bn $0.1bn $0.02bn $0.1bn $0.01bn $0.1bn

$12.3bn$12.4bn

$12.8bn

$9.3bn Portugal Greece

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38Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Waste

Agriculture

IndustrialProcesses

Other energy

Transport

Power

LULUCF

Historical emissions

2030target

2020target

2050target

Note: 2020 and 2030 targets have been pledged by the EU under the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement respectively. The 2050 target is set at

80% below 1990 levels, and the aspirational target established under the EU’s 2050 low carbon economy roadmap.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, European

Energy Agency, Eurostat, CAIT

EU28 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR AND 2020-50 TARGET LEVELS(MTCO2E/YR)

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39Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Other

Renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Coal

Emissions intenisty and trajectory consistent with climate goals

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat,

European Energy Agency

EU28 POWER GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS INTENSITY

% generation mix Emissions intensity of power

generation (TCO2e/MWh)

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40Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1990

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41Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1991

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42Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1992

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43Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1993

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44Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1994

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45Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1995

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46Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1996

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47Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1997

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48Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1998

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49Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

1999

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50Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2000

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51Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2001

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52Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2002

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53Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2003

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54Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2004

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55Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2005

Page 57: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

56Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2006

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57Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2007

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58Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2008

Page 60: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

59Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2009

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60Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2010

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61Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2011

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62Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2012

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63Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2013

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64Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2014

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65Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2015

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66Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions; Coal and gas generation data is for 2015. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS

2030 range

0 100 200 300

Portugal

Romania

Bulgaria

Netherlands

Greece

Czech Rep

Spain

Italy

UK

Poland

Germany

0 50 100 150

Portugal

Romania

Greece

Ireland

Belgium

France

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

UK

Italy

Coal (TWh) Gas (TWh)

100% zero carbon

100% gas100% coal

1GtCO2e

2015

2050 target

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67Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Source: BEIS, Prof. David Rutledge, Bloomberg New

Energy Finance

UK COAL CONSUMPTION 1850-2030 (MT/YR)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

BNEF NEO

2016 forecast

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68Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

HINKLEY C – KEY METRICS

Source: NAO, EDF Energy. Image rights: EDF

Power cost: £92.50/MWh

($114.81/MWh)

Indexed for inflation

35 years

Construction cost: £18 billion

35-year power

cost:

£82 billion*

* Assuming 90% uptime; ** National Audit Office estimate

Commissioning

year:

2017

2025

Total net subsidy £30 billion**

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69© New Energy Finance, 2005

Executive Summary• New Energy Finance surveyed nearly 3500

organisations in the clean energy industry

• Of 300 start-ups identified, 201 were in the USA, 75 in Europe and 25 in Asia

• Changing patterns of energy use will require Innovation, as well as Regulation

• Europe leads the world in policy, but lags the USA in entrepreneurship in clean energy

• Current policy approaches need to be rethought

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70Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

HORIZON 2020

Horizon 2020 is the biggest EU

Research and Innovation

programme ever with nearly €80

billion of funding available over 7

years (2014 to 2020)

Hydrogen 28

PV 25

Batteries 18

AI 17

3D Printing 4

Graphene 2

Supercomputers 2

Cohesion 18

Ethics 27

Cultural 77

Social 262

Most of the EU-funded projects are collaborative

projects with at least 3 organisations from different

EU Member States or Associated Countries

Total open and recent

calls for proposals1973

Keywords:

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71Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

EUROPE POWER GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE (TWH/YR)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other RE

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil

Historical Forecast 1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other RE

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil

Historical Forecast

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other RE

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil

Historical Forecast

Intermittent renewables

will account for 53% of

European power

generation in 2040

● Assumes power demand from EVs grows to 80TWh/yr by 2040, or 21% of total demand

● GDP growth assumed to be around 2% per year, in line with forecasts from the IMF

% share of generation

from intermittent (RHS)

Note: Includes EU 28, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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72Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

BALANCING THE GRID

Coal-fired generation

Inc

um

be

nt

tec

hn

olo

gie

s

Gas-fired generation

Nuclear

Reservoir hydro

Pumped hydro

Interconnectors

Renewable generation

Demand response

New

tec

hn

olo

gie

s Electrochemical storage

Thermal storage

Mechanical storage

Chemical

Years to weeks Weeks to hours2016

Hours to seconds

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

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73Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Coal-fired generation

Inc

um

be

nt

tec

hn

olo

gie

s

Gas-fired generation

Nuclear

Reservoir hydro

Pumped hydro

Interconnection

Renewable generation

Software solutions

New

tec

hn

olo

gie

s Electrochemical storage

Thermal storage

Mechanical storage

Chemical storage

Hours to seconds

BALANCING THE GRID

Years to weeks Weeks to hours2016

Future

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Power to gas

Interconnectors

Heating/cooling solutionsAmmonium H2

Flywheels

Compressed airBiomass

/biogas

Electric vehiclesElectric vehicles

Demand responseDemand response

Smart Grid and “Gridchain”

Gravity systemsBiofuel

BatteriesBatteriesFlow

batteriesSolar CSP

UHV Supergrid(GEIDCO) Interconnectors

Page 75: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

74Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

POTENTIAL GRIDCHAIN APPLICATIONS

TRANSMISSION

MICROGRID/

MINIGRID

SMART DISTRIBUTION

& COMMUNITY STORAGE

SMART HOMES

AND

BUILDINGS

SMART DISTRIBUTION

NETWORK EDGE

Carbon market with fraud-proof

distributed registry

Community minigrid buys &

sells power, settles payments,

no central controller

EV charging

payments

settlement

Home energy

management with

no central controller

Transmission

network settles all

payments peer-to-

peer

Carbon tax

collected directly

from appliances

Distribution grid balances

supply and demand with no

central controller

Shared and

autonomous vehicle

payments

Secure distributed

asset registries

Page 76: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

75Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

Tesla Model 3

BMW i3

VW e-Golf

Chevy Bolt

Nissan Leaf

Images: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, Nissan

EV MASS MARKET$30,000 + 200 MILES RANGE

Page 77: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

76Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales

Note: forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’

scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025). High scenario assumes greater vehicle

utilisation. Low scenario assumes $20 per barrel oil price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE AND EV ANNUAL SALES, 2015–40(M VEHICLES SOLD PER YEAR, %)

By 2040

Up to 50%

of new cars

will be EVs

Shared vehicle

scenario

$20 oil

scenario

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

020406080100120140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

ICE + HEV BEV PHEV EV % of new sales

m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales

Page 78: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

77Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

CONVERGENCE OF RIDE-SHARING, CAR-HAILING, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TRENDS

$300m

$500m

$1bn

Page 79: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

78Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit

THE GREAT CLEAN ECONOMY MIGRATION

Renewable

Energy

Smart

Appliances

Smart

Grid

Smart

Buildings

Green

Infrastructure

Precision

Agriculture

Circular

EconomyElectric

Vehicles

Energy

Efficiency

Advanced

manufacturing

Distributed

Energy

Smart

Cities

Drivers of Innovation

1. Technological

2. Digital

3. Financial

4. Social

Page 80: EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT - bbhub.io · Natural gas Coal Oil Nuclear. ... Dubai Masdar Consortium May 2016 2019 US$ 2.99 c/kWh 2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGY WORLD RECORDS

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving

change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy

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Michael Liebreich

Twitter: @MLiebreich

Thanks!