EMERGING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE

GEOSCIENCE WORKFORCE

Keynote Presented at the Geoscience andthe 21st Century Workforce Workshop

Sponsored by the National Science FoundationPenn State University, June 2013

Roger H. Bezdek, Ph.D., PresidentManagement Information Services, Inc.

Washington, D.C., rbezdek@misi-net.com

2

THIS PRESENTATION

• Discuss job market for geoscience workforce• Assess future supply of geoscience workers• Analyze supply & demand for geoscience jobs• Evaluate demographic trends• Identify challenges for maintaining adequate workforce• Analyze drivers of future job requirements• Identify new & emerging geoscience occupations• Discuss options for alleviating future workforce shortages• Identify challenges & opportunities• Identify areas of required research

3

“SHORTAGE” OF GEOSCIENCE WORKERS?

• “Consensus” in the literature seems to be that there is a shortage of geoscientists. For example, some recent findings:

-- “Society needs more geoscientists than there are presently students”

-- “Near-term demand for geoscientists that exceeds the available supply”

-- “Supply falls short of current and projected demand”

-- “Supply shortage of geoscience graduates”

• Is there a current & impending

shortage of geoscientists?

• This is an important question

4

IS THERE A GLUT OF U.S. STEM WORKERS?

• Geoscientists are a subset of STEM professions -- science, technology, engineering, & math

• Is there a shortage of STEM workers?• Everyone seems to think so• However, studies question this; for ex.,

EPI & Boston Consulting Group Economic Policy Institute (EPI) concludes:-- U.S. has more than a sufficient supply of workers available to work in STEM occupations-- For every 2 students that U.S. colleges graduate with STEM

degrees, only 1 is hired into a STEM job-- Wages have remained flat, with real wages hovering around

their late 1990s levels.• So, what is going on here? Need H1-B visas?

What does this imply for the NSF STEM Talent Expansion Program?

5

SALARIES ARE INDICATIVE

• If there is a “shortage” of geoscience workers, then salaries should be increasing. Is this true? Yes!

Mean Annual Salaries of Geoscience Occupations

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Geoscience salaries continue to increase significantly over period when average U.S. salaries are flat

6

PETROLEUM GEOLOGIST SALARIES

$50

$70

$90

$110

$130

$150

$170

$190

$210

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Entry Level 10-15 Yrs 20 Yrs +

Source: AAPG Annual Salary Survey

Average Petroleum Geologist Salary

Petroleum geologists salaries have increased ~ 75% over past decade!

7

FUTURE DEMAND > SUPPLY

Oil & Gas Industry Geoscientist Supply and Demand

Source: American Geological Institute

8

GEOSCIENCE JOB GROWTH

Forecast Job Growth, Selected Occupations, 2010 - 2020

Geoscience jobs expected to increase 21% by 2020 – 3X average job growth

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Geoscience occupations forecast tobe among the most rapidly growing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

9

FUTURE WAVE OF RETIREMENTS

Age Distribution of Geoscientists in the Oil and Gas Industry

Source: American Geological Institute

Oil & gas industries have been downsizing & shedding employees for2 decades, & now face a large impending wave of retirements

½ of total O&G workforce

eligible to retire ~ 10 years

10

FEDERAL RETIREMENT TSUNAMI

Age Distribution of Geoscientists in the U.S. Government

Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Office of Personnel Management

Most Federal geoscientists eligible to retire < 10 years

11

MANY SPECIALTIES AT RISK

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Mining Eng. Geodesy Petrol. Eng Geology Geophysics Oceanography

Percentage of Federal Workforce > 50 Years Old

Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Office of Personnel Management

In some fields retirement risk may be acute

12

ATTRITION, GROWTH, & REPLACEMENT

• What is overall outlook for geoscience jobs in the U.S.?• At present ~ 265K U.S. geoscience jobs• Geoscience grads continuing on to geoscience careers:

Bachelor’s, 30%; Master’s, 43%; Doctorate, 66%• Over next decade in U.S.:

-- ~ 130K geoscientists expected to retire

-- 72K geoscience job growth by 2021 (BLS)

-- 45K total new graduates -- BS/BA, MS, Ph.D.• Thus, potential net deficit of > 150,000 geoscientists• Actually, net deficit likely to be even lager due to new sources of

geoscience job growth

13

SHORTAGES WILL BE WORSE IFNON-U.S. WORKERS UNAVAILABLE

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2015 2020 2025 2030

Nu

mb

er

of

Ge

os

cie

nti

sts

Potential Shortage of Oil & Gas Industry Geoscientists

Why do we think thatU.S. can continue

indefinitely to poachworld’s supply

of geoscientists?

However, potential shortage likely to be even more severe due to new sources of geoscience job growth

Source: American Geological Institute and Management Information Services, Inc.

14

GEOSCIENCE WORKFORCE SHORTAGE

• Thus, there is no current or impending “glut” of

geoscience professionals• In fact, just the opposite is true:

-- Recent salary data indicate robust job market

-- Forecasts indicate that demand will > supply

-- Workforce deficit could exceed 150K – &

this may be a conservative estimate• The EPI study looked at all STEM occupations, and surplus labor

was concentrated in computer programming & some IT fields• It did NOT indicate a surplus of geoscience professionals• The EPI study has important implications for future

geoscience workforce, which we will discuss shortly

15

FUTURE SUPPLY OF GEOSCIENCE WORKERS

• Enrollments -- flat• Graduation rates -- flat• Career choices after graduation

-- most geoscience grads do

not remain in field• Inflow from other specialties• Foreign workers -- H-1B visas• Increased participation of women in geoscience• Increased participation of minorities in geoscience

16

GEOSCIENCE STUDENTS NOT INCREASING

U.S. Geoscience Enrollments

Source: American Geological Institute

Geoscience undergrad enrollments plateaued past 2 decades;geoscience grad enrollments plateaued past 4 decades

17

GEOSCIENCE GRADUATES NOT INCREASING

U.S. Geoscience Degrees Conferred

# of geosciences degrees awarded flat for past 3 decades

18

WOMEN UNDERREPRESENTED

Percentage of Women in Environmental Scienceand Geoscience Occupations

Source: American Geological Institute and U.S. Bureau of labor Statistics

19

STUDENT POPULATION WILL BE MINORITIES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2010 2025 2050

Po

rtio

n o

f T

ota

l

Hispanic Black Combined

U.S. Population, 18 and Younger

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

“Minorities” – especially Hispanics -- will comprise majority of U.S. studentsThis will have profound impact on future U.S. workforce

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FEW HISPANICS IN GEOSCIENCES

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Environmental Eng.

Environmental Sci.

Mining & Geo Eng.

Oceanography Hispanic % Students 2025

Hispanic % Students 2050

Hispanic Percent of Federal Geoscience Workforce Compared to Hispanic Percent of Students

Hispanics not underrepresented in Geoscience; they are hardly present at all

Source: U.S. Office of Personnel Management

21

U.S. GEOSCIENCE EMPLOYMENT

Government (17%)

Oil & Gas (48%)

Environmental8%

--- Other (1%)Mining (10%)

Academia (16%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Science Foundation

Geosciences employment overwhelminglydominated by energy industry and related sectors

22

FUTURE OF GEOSCIENCE JOBS

• Historically, fortunes of geoscientists have been tied to the boom and bust cycles of the natural resource industries – oil, gas, & mining.

• Thus, future of geoscience jobs depends on future of energy industries

• What does the world’s energy future look like?• The future energy mix will likely look much like the

current one: Oil, natural gas, & coal continue to dominate

“The key to past performance has not been the expansion of resources in the ground but rather the sustained application of new

technologies by skilled professionals. Technology will be even more important to sustaining industry growth in the future. So, too,

will be the availability of skilled professionals to apply that technology.” American Petroleum Institute

23

FOSSIL FUELS HERE TO STAY

Fossil Fuels (86%)

Fossil Fuels (80%?)

Other Energy (14%)

Other Energy (20%?)

2012 World Energy Mix

2050 World Energy Mix

What does this imply for geoscience workforce?

In 2050, fossil fuels will still provide ~ 80% of the world’s (much larger) energy supply

24

FUTURE WORLD ENERGY SUPPLYForecast World Energy Consumption

(Mtoe: Million Tons Oil Equivalent)

Source: International Energy Agency

25

FOSSIL FUEL DEMANDAND PRICES INCREASING

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

20

10

$/M

MB

TU

Oil Natural Gas Coal

In real terms, oil prices increase 37%, natural gasprices increase 56%, and coal prices increase 20%,

and these may be conservative estimates

Forecast U.S. Fossil Fuel Prices

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

WORLD LIQUID FUELS PRODUCTION: HISTORY

26

World Liquid Fuel Production Increased up to Mid 2004 & Then Hit Fluctuating Plateau

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

World “conventional” oil production willlikely never exceed ~ 70 MMbbl/day

WORLD OIL PRICESO

il Pri

ce (

Bre

nt)

27

The era of “easy” oil is past; future oil will beincreasingly difficult, expensive, “dirty,” and

increasingly “technology-challenged”

World in a race between declining conventional oil production & increasing

unconventional oil production

COAL: PRIMARY WORLD ENERGY SOURCEOF THE PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE

• Coal was the world’s dominant energy source in the 19th century• Coal was the world’s major energy source in the 20th century:

-- More energy was obtained from coal than from oil

-- Thus, contrary to common perception, 20th century was really the “coal century,” not the “oil century”

• Coal is the world’s most rapidly growing

energy source in the 21th century:

-- Coal use grew twice as fast as any

other energy source over past decade

-- Coal’s dominance is forecast to

continually increase• Coal necessary to meet world’s

rising energy demand

28

COAL WILL PROVIDE CONTINUALLY INCREASING SHARE OF WORLD ENERGY

29

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

2000 2007 2015 2020 2030 2035

Wo

rld

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n

Coal’s share of total world energy consumption forecast to increase by > 1/4: From < 23% in 2000 to > 29% in 2035.

Coal Share of Total World Energy Consumption: 2000 - 2035

Source: International Energy Agency, 2010.

30

FRAC GAS INCREASING RAPIDLY

Hydraulic fracturing (fracing) has revolutionized natural gas production

SHALE GAS REQUIRED TO OFFSET LOST PRODUCTION OF CONVENTIONAL GAS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 -

5

10

15

20

25

Prod

uctio

n in

Tri

llion

cub

ic fe

et o

f nat

ural

gas

Alaska

Shale gas

Coalbed methane

Non-associatedOnshore

Non-associatedOffshore

Gas associatedwith oil

Net imports

History Projections

Source: EIA

31

“EIA is increasingly relying on huge production increases from shale gas to meet its U.S. natural gas forecast.”

GAS WELL PRODUCTIVITY DECLINING RAPIDLY

32

Number of U.S. Natural Gas Wells vs. Average Productivity Of Each Well, 1990 - 2010

IT IS ALL ABOUT DECLINE RATES

• Shale gas wells have very high annual production decline rates:-- Conventional gas wells decline 25% - 40% in 1st year-- SG wells decline at much higher rates, ~ 85%.

• Initial productivity can be very high• However, steep decline rates mean

that relying on SG will exacerbate“exploration treadmill” problem

• # of SG wells that must be drilledto maintain production will continueto increase.

33

“Estimated ultimate recovery from shale gas wells has been overstated by operators, and shale gas plays are marginally commercial at best in

the current low gas price environment.”

TREADMILL: DRILLING MORETO STAY CONSTANT

34

Annual Successful U.S. NG Wells v. U.S. NG Production

Drilling tripled, but production increased only ~ 20%

SHALE GAS GHG IMPACTS EXCEED COAL

35Fuel switching from coal to natural gas could INCREASE GHGs Source: Cornell University.

GHG Emissions (grams carbon per million joules of energy)

36

BOTTOM LINE: CARBONMANAGEMENT IS IMPERATIVE

• No shortage of carbon-based fuels – world awash in hydrocarbons: Heavy oil, oil sands, shale oil, frac gas, methane hydrates, coal, etc.

• Given: Fossil energy will continue to dominate• May 2013: CO2 > 400 ppm

• Trend is that GHGs will continue to increase• THUS:

-- IF world is serious about controlling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

-- THEN carbon capture, utilization, & sequestration (CCUS) on massive scale becomes critical

37

CARBON CAPTURE AND SEQUESTRATION

Worldwide, carbon capture & sequestration (CCS) will requiretrillions $ of investments, generate millions of jobs, &have profound impacts on the geoscience workforce

Capture the carbon produced and safely and permanently sequester it

CO2 FROM SOURCE USED FOR EOR

38

CURRENT U.S. CO2 EOR ACTIVITY

39

U.S. has > 40 years of experience in EOR, and it’soil industry is the world leader in CO2 EOR

EXAMPLE: TEXAS ADVANCED POWER PLANT INTEGRATING CO2 EOR & CO2 STORAGE

40

This is a first-of-its-kind commercial clean coal power plant that uses the CO2 generated for EOR

HOW CO2 CAPTURE/TRANSPORT/STORAGE COULD EVOLVE

41

Source: ARI for NRDC, 2010.

CO2 EOR opportunity in Texas is so large that it could absorb CO2 from all planned coal power plants…and much more

42

CCUS ESSENTIAL

• Carbon capture, utilization, & sequestration

(CCUS) increasingly imperative, e.g.:

-- Carbon capture in power plants,

factories, refineries, etc.

-- Carbon sequestration in aquifers

-- Carbon utilization in enhanced

oil recovery (EOR)

-- Carbon utilization as a feedstock• Studies have estimated economic & job impacts of CCUS initiatives &

found them to be huge: Annually, ~ $200 billion, > 1 million jobs• Found that even modest CCUS initiatives will greatly increase demand for

geoscience workers• Future CCUS initiatives will be more than modest• This is good news for geoscience workers• But presents daunting challenges for workforce development in

industry and academiaCarbon mgt./CCUS may be world’s major energy,

environmental, and technology challenge of the 21st century

43

VAST NEW SOURCES OF GEOSCIENCE JOBS

• Growth in U.S. CCUS & related “green” sectors will lead to vast new employment opportunities – many related to geoscience

• Jobs will be created across a new spectrum of work activities, skill requirements, responsibilities, & salary levels

• Many of these jobs do not currently exist & do not have occupational titles defined in federal & st. govt. classifications

• Many of the new jobs require different set of skills than current jobs• Education & training requirements must be assessed so that these

rapidly growing sectors have enough qualified workers• Eventually, federal government will classify the occupations & add them

to the employment classification system• Until then, geoscience jobs analysis &

forecasting is conducted using the current

set of U.S. Labor Dept. occupational titles

44

LARGE NUMBERS OF JOBS CREATEDIN MANY INDUSTRIES

Jobs Created in 2030 by CO2 EOR

(Selected Industries)

Source: Management Information Services, Inc.

45

CCUS CREATES MANY GEOSCIENCE-RELATED JOBS

New & Emerging Jobs, Salaries, and Educational Requirements in the CCUS Field

Occupational Title Average Salary Minimum Education

Director of CCUS project development $148,700 Bachelor's (Business) Plant technical specialist - safety instrument testing & repair $69,400 Bachelor's (various) Safety investigator - cause analyst $97,300 Bachelor's (various) Plant supervising technical operator $56,100 Bachelor's (Engineer) Plant safety engineer $98,800 Bachelor's (various) Air quality control engineer $99,700 Bachelor's (CE) Field technician $25,800 HSD/GED Sequestration research manager $80,100 Master's (Science) Emissions accounting & reporting consultant $69,400 Bachelor's (various) GHG emissions report verifier $60,200 Bachelor's (Science) CCUS sampling technician $38,300 HSD/GED Energy trading specialist $69,000 Bachelor's (various) CCUS power generation engineer $111,800 Bachelor's (ME) CCUS technician $46,800 Associate's Emissions reduction credit marketer & market analyst $79,600 Bachelor's (Business) Emissions reduction credit portfolio manager $50,800 Bachelor's (Business) Emissions reduction project developer specialist $68,500 Bachelor's (various) Commercial energy field auditor $26,000 Associate's Air pollution specialist $69,400 Bachelor's (Science) Air resource engineer $79,200 Bachelor's (Engineer) CCUS policy analyst $44,900 Bachelor's (Science) Air quality specialist & enforcement officer $67,100 Bachelor's (Science) Air emissions permitting engineer $70,600 Bachelor's (Science) CCUS engineer/scientist intern $6,800 HSD/GED Source: Management Information Services, Inc.

46

GREEN SECTOR-RELATED GEOSCIENCE JOBS

New & Emerging “Green” Geoscience-related Jobs, Salaries, and Educational Requirements

Occupational Title Average Salary Minimum Education

Water purification systems service technician $41,400 HSD/GED Environmental engineering manager $74,200 Bachelor's (Science) GHG emissions permitting consultant $68,800 Bachelor's (Science) Water resource consultant $81,500 Bachelor's (Science) Water resource engineer $69,600 Bachelor's (Science) Environmental research manager $78,100 Master's (Science) GIS specialist $51,000 Bachelor's (Geography) Engineering geologist $69,800 Bachelor's (Engineer) Environmental sampling technician $38,800 HSD/GED Climatologist $69,000 Bachelor's (Science) Restoration planner $79,200 Master's (Science) Carbon sequestration plant installation, operations, eng. & mgt. $75,200 Bachelor's (Engineer) Carbon emission specialist $69,300 Bachelor's (various) Emissions reduction project manager $85,700 Bachelor's (various) Conservation of resources commissioner $94,400 Master's (various) Water resources policy specialist & advocate $45,500 Bachelor's (Science) Climate change & energy policy specialist & advocate $46,800 Master's (Various) Environmental compliance specialist $50,200 Bachelor's (Science) Geothermal operations engineer $66,100 Bachelor's (Engineer) Hydrologist-Hydrogeologist $67,900 Bachelor's (Science)

Source: Management Information Services, Inc.

47

HOW DO WE ADDRESS FUTURE SHORTAGE OF GEOSCIENCE WORKERS?

• On-the-job training?• Retooling of existing personnel?• Crash education and training programs?• Delayed retirements?• Lure people out of retirement?• Increased reliance on foreign workers? • Energy/CCUS demands are worldwide & foreigners may not be

available – other nations may be poaching our people.• It takes 5 - 10 years, or more, to produce highly trained

geoscientists required, so we have to begin more than a decade in advance

• How do companies, universities, & governments, plan for this?• Have to forecast workforce requirements more than a decade into

future & then have universities come up to speed. Is this possible?Likely solution is a combination of options to fill the void until

geoscience graduation numbers increase to meet demand

48

REDIRECT STEM STUDENTS TO GEOSCIENCE?

• EPI study:

-- Supply of STEM-educated students remains strong

-- In computer & information science & in engineering, U.S. colleges graduate 50% more students than are

hired into those fields each year

-- Of the computer science graduates not entering IT workforce, 32% say it is because IT jobs are unavailable; 53% say they found better jobs outside of IT

-- Supply of STEM graduates larger than demand for them in industry

• If true, redirect STEM/IT/CS students to geoscience: They have the basic skills required & should be good fit

49

CONCLUSIONS: OPPORTUNITIES

• Current job market for geoscientists is robust

-- High salaries

-- Tight job market: Demand > supply• Future job market for geoscientists excellent:

Demand likely to continue to exceed supply• Energy industries will continue to grow & create numerous geoscience jobs• Carbon mgt./CCUS & related environmental programs provide sources of

immense job growth for geoscientists during 21st century -- jobs immune from infamous “Boom & Bust” cycle

• Very good news for current & future geoscientists• Especially good news in era when many college grads are saddled with

huge educational loans & cannot find jobs (or are working as baristas)• Good career advice: Tell your children, students, etc. to become

geoscientists

Be realistic about future geosciences jobs: Many more miningengineers working for Shenhua and geologists working for

Chevron than “sustainability experts” working for Greenpeace

50

CONCLUSIONS: CHALLENGES

• Good news for students & workers may be

bad news for employers & schools• High rates of geoscientist attrition in near future• Large % of impending retirees are in middle & upper

mgt. positions that require many years of experience• Energy industries: Workforce shortage causes

project delays, cost overruns, & cancellations• Governments: How can public sector compete

for future geoscience workers?• Academia: How to make case for large increase in geoscience

resources when budgets are tight & shrinking?• High rates of geoscientist attrition in near future• World priorities: Carbon mgt./CCUS/climate goals not achievable

without adequate geoscience workforce – no one is addressing this• Where are required, qualified future geoscience workers to come from?

Next year? 5 years from now? 10 years from now?• How to increase minorities’ enrollment in geosciences

51

REQUIRED RESEARCH

• Forecast alternate demand and supply scenarios

or geoscience workforce• Methods for alleviating shortage of geoscience

workers – short term & long term solutions needed• Geoscience least diverse of all STEM fields – why?• How can minorities be attracted to the geoscience professions?• Assess why most geoscience graduates do not enter the profession and

identify remedies• Assess ed. & training requirements & salaries for new, emerging

geoscience occupations & develop appropriate classifications• Analyze impacts of growth of carbon mgt./CCUS on geoscience workforce• Geoscientists required to address problems only beginning to emerge; e.g.

CCUS monitoring, verification, insurance, liability, transactions costs, litigation, etc.

• Determine if geoscience workforce constraints may limit world’s climate change mitigation efforts & assess implications – questions no one is even asking