emerging growth: mid-decade economic trends
DESCRIPTION
Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends. University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http ://cedr.unt.edu. July 2014. U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change. 2013: 1.9%. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends
University of North TexasCenter for Economic Development and Research
http://cedr.unt.edu
July 2014
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change
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'90
'91
'92
'93
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 2013:1.9%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14
1Q 2014:-2.9%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012 2013 2014
Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
June 2014:288,000
Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands
Jan-08
FMAMJJASONDJan-09
FMAMJJASONDJan-10
FMAMJJASONDJan-11
FMAMJJASONDJan-12
FMAMJJASONDJan-13
FMAMJJASONDJan-14
FMAMJ-900-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300400500
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012 2013 2014
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J0
25
50
75
100
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
Jun ’14:31,434
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0255075
100125150175200225250
Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas
Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)
U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted
J J A S O N D J F M A M J5.00%
5.50%
6.00%
6.50%
7.00%
7.50%
8.00%
June ’14:6.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2013 2014
M J J A S O N D J F M A M$13.0
$13.5
$14.0
$14.5
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
May ’14:$14.6 trillion
2013 2014
Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
$13.0
$14.0
$15.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates
M J J A S O N D J F M A M$10.0
$10.5
$11.0
$11.5
$12.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
2013 2014
Personal ConsumptionIn trillions
May ’14:$11.8 trillion
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$6.0
$7.0
$8.0
$9.0
$10.0
$11.0
$12.0
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions
J J A S O N D J F M A M J$350
$375
$400
$425
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
June 2014:$439.9 billion
2013 2014
Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Source: U.S. Commerce Department
Retail Sales 2007-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2012 2013 201492
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
Source: Federal Reserve Board
June 2014:103.9Industrial Production
Index, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
M J J A S O N D J F M A M$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
2013 2014
May 2014:$956.1 billion
Source: Commerce Department
Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
J J A S O N D J F M A M J0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014
June ’14:893,000
Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies
Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
43.8
20.8
Sources: Dallas Morning News; National Association of Home Builders
Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands)
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '130
10
20
30
40
50
60
36.2
20.8
49.6
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M300
400
500
600
New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands)
May 2014:504,000
2012 2013 2014
Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau
Source: The National Association of Realtors
Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units.
2012
2013
2014
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
May 2014:4.89 million
2000:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 Low Point Date of Low PointUnited States 62.8 69.3 64.5 40.4 2006 : Q3Los Angeles 40.2 28.3 21.1 1.8 2006 : Q3New York 42.1 29.8 23 5.1 2006 : Q3/Q4Miami 58.8 57.8 54.5 10 2007 : Q1Austin 57.5 64.2 62.9 49.9 2000 : Q4Dallas 65.3 63.4 60.4 53.7 2007 : Q3Houston 66.2 64 61.5 47.4 2007 : Q3San Antonio 63.3 68.7 65.7 46.5 2006 : Q3Source: NAHB - Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index
Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability
(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)
Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR
ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%1Q 2014:
-3.2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.
J J A S O N D J F M A M J-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
June 2014:0.4%
0 0
Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)
J J A S O N D J F M A M J-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2013 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
June 2014:0.3%
0
Source: The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2013 2014
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
June 2014:85.2
Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2030405060708090
100110120
Source: The Conference Board
Source: The Conference Board
Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.
J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J90
94
98
102
106
110
June 2014:102.2
2011 2012 2013 2014
Things to Worry About
Pace of job growth Unfunded pension liabilities European sovereign default Corporate and consumer debt Federal Deficits/Debt Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes Political gridlock Environmental regulations Market volatility
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'01
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'03
'04
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'13
'14
'15
'16
-$1,900
-$1,600
-$1,300
-$1,000
-$700
-$400
-$100
$200
Source: Congressional Budget Office
Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars
2012: -$1.09 trillion2013: -$679.5 billion2014 Projected: -$492 billion2015 Projected: -$469 billion2016 Projected: -$536 billion
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.
M J J A S O N D J F M A M$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
2013 2014
May 2014:$44.4 billion
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Household Net WorthIn trillions
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14
1Q 2014:$81.8 trillion
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
'90
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'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13-0.3
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)
Business Bankruptcies
1999 37,884 2007 28,322
2000 35,472 2008 43,546
2001 40,099 2009 60,837
2002 38,540 2010 56,282
2003 35,037 2011 47,806
2004 34,317 2012 40,075
2005 39,201 2013 33,212
2006 19,695 --- ---
Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
May ’14:4.8%
2012 2013 2014
Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income
Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009
Aug'29…May'37…Feb'45…Nov'48…
Jul'53…Aug'57…Apr'60…Dec'69…Nov'73…Jan'80…Jul'81…Jul'90…
Mar'01…Dec'07…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
4313
811
108
1011
166
1688
19
Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
TXLI ComponentsChanges Mar-Apr-May
Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
Average Weekly Hours
Texas Stock Index
Well Permits
US Leading Index
Net Change in Texas Leading Index
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
0.16
-0.17
0.20
0.13
0.08
0.01
0.56
0.30
1.27
Last Data Entry: May 2014Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032006200820102012201485
95
105
115
125
135
Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro
Jun '11
Jun '12
Jun '13
Jun '14
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%Texas U.S.
U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted *D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted
U. S. June 2014 = 6.1%Texas June 2014 = 5.1%D/FW June 2014 = 5.4%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Ft. Worth-Arlington MSANonagricultural Employment
June 2013 June 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 924,000 948,100 2.61%Mining, Logging, Construction 63,100 65,800 4.28%Manufacturing 92,600 94,200 1.73%Wholesale Trade 42,100 45,700 8.55%Retail Trade 101,500 102,000 0.49%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 66,200 67,800 2.42%Information 13,700 12,700 -7.30%Financial Activities 55,000 52,100 -5.27%Professional & Business Services 104,000 112,400 8.08%Education & Health Services 117,700 118,800 0.93%Leisure & Hospitality 105,100 109,200 3.90%Other Services 36,300 37,300 2.75%Government 126,700 128,300 1.26%
Dallas-Plano-Irving MDNonagricultural Employment
June 2013 June 2014 % Chng
Total Non-Farm 2,176,500 2,264,500 4.04%Mining, Logging, Construction 113,300 125,000 10.33%Manufacturing 166,400 163,400 -1.80%Wholesale Trade 126,100 134,700 6.82%Retail Trade 218,100 223,400 2.43%Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities 80,500 86,700 7.70%Information 65,700 68,500 4.26%Financial Activities 199,300 202,100 1.40%Professional & Business Services 379,700 411,400 8.35%Education & Health Services 264,400 273,900 3.59%Leisure & Hospitality 221,500 227,700 2.80%Other Services 76,600 76,500 -0.13%Government 264,700 271,200 2.46%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Sales and Use Tax Allocations
2010 2011 2012 2013% Chg 12-13
Allen 24,606,228 27,499,534 29,874,634 31,856,091 6.63%
Arlington 83,143,848 86,127,967 88,941,229 94,043,810 5.74%
Dallas 204,732,898 215,394,908 232,445,766 242,456,290 4.31%
Fort Worth 100,569,555 105,424,832 112,745,846 118,919,449 5.48%
Frisco 40,303,106 44,280,590 49,889,488 58,676,772 17.61%
Plano 58,888,948 66,325,563 68,410,251 69,804,509 2.04%
Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts
Conclusions
The US recession is technically over.Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-
2013 Financial sector risk Texas has performed better than nation
We’ve been “lucky puppies” Market / consumer confidence is major headwind Political failure is hurting growth
Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility Housing market will start recovery Local job market growing
