Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicagofor the U.S. Department of Energy

Work sponsored by[sponsor name for logo inserted above]

Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-

Decade, 2000-2010By Danilo J. Santini

Center for Transportation Research

For presentation at the Annex I Experts Meeting,

under the International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement

for Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Technologies and ProgramsRome ItalyOct. 5, 2005

2

EPA’s “Green” Top 10 Includes 5 Hybrid Powertrains, 3 Hybrid Models

(4 cyl)2FORD Focus(4 cyl)2MAZDA 3(4 cyl)1.8NISSAN Sentra(4 cyl)1.8NISSAN Sentra(4 cyl)2.3FORD Escape HEV(4 cyl)1.7HONDA Civic (Compressed Natural Gas)(4 cyl)2.3FORD Escape HEV(4 cyl)1.3HONDA Civic Hybrid(4 cyl)1.3HONDA Civic Hybrid(4 cyl)1.5TOYOTA PriusCylDisplModel

3

Where Available, HEVs are “Greenest”within Size Class

13Ford E150Large Van 67Nissan Frontier Pickup 67Honda OdysseyMinivan 89.5Ford Escape HybridSUV

Trucks

67Toyota AvalonLarge car79.5Ford FocusStation Wagon109.5Toyota Prius HybridMidsize Car109.5Honda Civic HybridSmall Car

Cars

GreenhouseScore

EPA Air ScoreMake and ModelEPA Size Class

4

The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance in a Vehicle Body Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration

> 40

% d

eclin

e vs

. gas

olin

eThe Estimate of HEV Fuel Consumption Reduction (or Fuel Economy Gain) Depends on Basis of Comparison

36%

5

Weight and Fuel Consumption Comparisons of HEV with Non-HEV Model Depends on Who Does the Comparison

Note: The Prius does not have a direct ‘non-hybrid’ version, is not included in comparisons.* CO2 reduction based on comparison of base model to HEV EPA ratings

26.5 % [36%]7.4 %4365 AWD4065 AWDLexus 400H (Parallel – Series)

36.7 % [58%]13.3 %3792 AWD3346 AWDFord Escape (Parallel – Series)

23.7%[31.1%]4.5 %35013349Honda Accord (IMA)

30.6 %[44.1%]2.7 %26842612Honda Civic (IMA)

CO2Reduction*(Percent)

[MPG increase]

WeightIncrease(Percent)

Weight of Hybrid Electric

Vehicle (pounds)

Weight of Base Vehicle

(pounds)Vehicle

Center for Automotive Research Estimates, 2005

6

Hybrid Technologies Vary

Center for Automotive Research Comparison of Hybrid Electric Vehicles

Source: Company Literature

288 (V)Front: 123ks/109kw (Gen)Rear: 50 kw

Parallel – Series (AWD)

Lexus 400h

330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)Parallel – Series (AWD)

Escape

202 (V)49kw/10kw (Gen)Parallel – SeriesPrius THS II (2004)

274 (V)33kw/10kw (Gen)Parallel – SeriesPrius THS I (2000)

144 (V)12kwIMA Accord

144 (V)10kwIMA Civic

Battery(Volts)

Electric Motor/Generator(GEN)TypeModel

7

Hybrid Technologies Vary

Source: ORNL/TM-2004-181

8

Hybrids and diesels are expected to deliver both higher MPG and more torque.

• Hybrids

• Diesels

35%15%Full Lg. Trk.

40%20%Full Car & Sm. Trk.

20%15%IMA

12.5%10%ISAD7.5%0%S/S

MPGTorque

35%15%Full Lg. Trk.

40%20%Full Car & Sm. Trk.

20%15%IMA

12.5%10%ISAD7.5%0%S/S

MPGTorque

33%25%2012

30%25%2008

35%25%2005

MPGTorque

33%25%2012

30%25%2008

35%25%2005

MPGTorque

Greene/ORNL/2005

Oak Ridge Analysts Predict A Mix of Hybrids Will Enter the Market; Expect a Maximum 40% MPG Gain

9

EPA Data Implies Higher HEV MPG Gains than ORNL and CAR

No1042VRWDISADGM 5.3 L Pickups

No942VRWDISADGM 5.3 L Pickups

No30-46

288 (V)45 kWFront:123kW/109k(Gen): Rear 50 kW

4WDParallel/SeriesToyota Highlander

No39

288 (V)45 kWFront:123kW/109k(Gen): Rear 50 kW

4WDParallel/SeriesLexus 400h

Yes57-62330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)4WDParallel/SeriesEscape

Yes46-56330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesEscape

Yes70 est.202 (V)21 kW49kw/10kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesPrius THS II (2004)

Yes?274 (V)20 kW33kw/10kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesPrius THS I (2000)

Intermittent20-35 +144 (V)12 kW12kwFWDParallel (IMA)Accord

Yes23-47144 (V)10 kW10kwFWDParallel (IMA)Civic

Downsize?%(Volts)(GEN)

Engine~ mpggainBatteryBattery

Electric Motor/Generator

TypeModel

10

“Constant Glider” MPG Gain Approximation for the ’04 Prius Showed One Year Old Estimates Were Obsolete

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

HEV MPG GainEstimates

EEA150VEEA300VTMC/ANL500V

• EEA estimates from 2002 study for California, ANL for actual 2004 Prius

• Lower drag and rolling resistance (than ’04 Prius) in the EEA cases

• EEA estimates greater increase in mass of HEV

• All are “mid-size” cars

Multiple Argonne Analysts Have Estimated a 70% Gain in l/km (mpg) for the Prius Powertrain in a Prius Body, with

Prius-like Engine Power Levels, on Certification Tests

11

The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance in a Vehicle Body Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration

> 40

% d

eclin

e vs

. gas

olin

eToyota Has Recently Claimed the Equivalent of > 67% l/km Gain (>40% km/l cut) with the New RX400 Hybrid, in the EU

36%

12

M. Duoba’s ANL Analysts Show a Sharp MPG Drop for the Prius When Driven “Hard”

Urban Drive Cycle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6Scaling Factor

Fuel

Eco

nom

y [m

pg]

Insight

Prius

Echo

Focus

Escape

Jaguar!32% Drop1.0 to 1.4

Investigating Vehicle Fuel Economy Robustness of Conventional and Hybrid Electric Vehicles. M. Duoba et al, Argonne National Laboratory, USA Presented 4/5/05 EVS-21 Monaco

13

The HEV “On-Road” vs. Official Rated Fuel Economy is Being Debated

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

HondaInsight

HondaCivic

ToyotaPrius

HondaAccord

FordEscape

Lexus RX

Lite

rs p

er 1

00 K

ilom

eter

s (U

.S.) U.S. Owner Reports

EPA City Rating

EPA Highway Rating

Owner reports from http://www.greenhybrid.com/compare/mileage/Reported in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_car. 9/30/05

On-road reported fuel economy (5-47 responses) vs. “window sticker” ratings, in l/100 km

14

EPA Evidence to Date Implies a Larger On-Road Discount for FWD HEVs

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Honda

Civi

c 4 A

uto

Accord

4 cy

l Auto

Toyota

Cam

ry 4 A

uto

Accord

V6 A

uto

Scion X

A 4 Auto

Nissan

Altima 4

Auto

Toyota

Coro

lla 4

Auto

Scion X

B4 Auto

Toyota

Matr

ix 4 A

uto

Ford Foc

us 4

AutoCivi

c HEV1

Accord

HEV

Escap

e HEV

Prius

Civic H

EV2

Lite

rs/1

00 k

m

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

On-

road

per

cent

diff

eren

ce

Rated Reported% Difference

Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum)

15

For 4WD, the Scant EPA Evidence Says the HEV Penalty is the Same as Gasoline

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jeep Liberty4WD 4 SUV

Diesel

Honda Pilot4WD V6 SUV

Auto

Equinox 4WDV6 SUV Auto

Escape 4WD 4SUV HEV

Lite

rs/1

00 k

m

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

On-

road

per

cent

cha

nge

Rated Reported% Difference

Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum)

16

Not all hybrids are full hybrids, which increases hybrids’market share but decreases their fuel economy impact.

Hybrid Vehicles by Degree of Hybridization:

2012 "Best Guess Scenario"(Total Hybrid Market Share = 14.9%)

Stop-Start, 4.2%

ISAD, 0.7%

IMA, 2.9%

Full Hybrid, 7.1%

Greene/ORNL/2005

Oak Ridge Analysts Predict the “Full Hybrid” Will Capture the Largest Share of a Growing U.S. Hybrid Market in 2012

Not a hybrid by SAE and EPACT definitions

17Center for Automotive Research Estimates, June 2005

Though Entering Different Market Segments, Both Diesel and HEV Shares of the <10K GVW New Vehicle Market

are Projected to Expand Significantly by 2009

18

Prius vs. Civic HEV Sales Imply the Complete Prius “Package” Attracts Buyers

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Y E A R

Ann

ual S

ales

(100

0s)

Total

Prius

Civic

Escape

Accord

Insight

Note: 2005 sales = 2 x sales through June

19

9.1%15,0231,363Ford Escape5.1%46,1532,336Honda Accord

11.9%34,7624,146Honda Civic27.0%9,6442,607Toyota Rx400h

22.4%13,0422,925Toyota Highlander

% HybridsFull modelHybridsModel

Hybrids as Percentage of Model Sales August 2005

0.50%288,4291,363Ford4.20%156,1736,562Honda7.50%205,36215,382Toyota

% HybridsTotalHybridsHybrids as Percentage of Total LDV Sales August 2005

Toyota Hybrid Powertrains Are Selling in Higher Percentages of the Model and Brand than Honda or Ford

20

Sources: Fueleconomy.gov, J.D. Power-LMC; Energy & Environmental Analysis (EEA); manufacturer Web sites.

2008Mid-size CarMilan Hybrid Mercury

2008Full-size PickupSierra Hybrid (AHS II)GMC

2008Mid-size CarFusionFord

2008Full-size PickupSilverado Hybrid (AHS II)Chevrolet

2007SUVTribute HybridMazda

2007SUVYukon Hybrid (AHS II)GMC

2007SUVTahoe (AHS II)Chevrolet

2007Mid-size CarMalibuChevrolet

2007SUVEquinoxChevrolet

2006Mid-size CarAltima HybridNissan

2006SUVVUESaturn

June 2005Mid-size SUVHighlanderToyota

Later in 2005Mid-size SUVMariner HybridMercury

Just introducedMid-size SUVRX 400hLexus

Later in 2005Full-size PickupRam HybridDodge

ETATypeModelManufacturer

Several Hybrids Were “On the Horizon” Before June

21

GM May Introduce “Dual Mode” “Full”HEVs In Large Trucks First, Then DC

Manufacturer/Model (CARB Classification1) Type Date Available

Daimler Chrysler Dodge Ram ‘Contractor Special’ (LDT2) ISG 2005 Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles – Resulting From Partnership With GM (PC/LDT1, LDT2)

Parallel – Series2 2009-2010 est.

Ford Ford Escape Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2004 Mercury Mariner Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Mazda Tribute Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2006 Ford Fusion Hybrid/Mercury Milan Hybrid (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2008

General Motors GMC Sierra/Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (LDT2) ISG 2004 Chevrolet Malibu (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 Saturn Vue (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 GMC Yukon/Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid (AHSII) (LDT2 / MDPV) Parallel – Series 2007

AHSII Hybrid Pickup (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2008 (est.) Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles – Resulting from partnership with DCX (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2009 (est.) 1 PC/LDT1: Passenger cars and light trucks 0 – 3750 LVW. LDT2: 3751 LVW – 8500GVW. MDPV: Passenger vehicles > 8500GVW. The pickup trucks may qualify as MDV’s (and thus avoid regulation) if used for commercial purposes; however CARB documents state that differentiating those pickups used for commercial and non-commercial purposes is impossible and believes that using 8500 as the cutoff will produce minimal error. Since the ISG pickups and future AHS II pickups have GVWs < 8500 they will be classified as LDT2s.

Center for Automotive Research, June 2005

22

As of June, Asian Companies Had Not Announced HEVs in Their Big Trucks

Honda Insight (PC/LDT1) IMA 1999 Civic (PC/LDT1) IMA 2002 Accord (PC/LDT1) IMA 2004 Nissan Altima (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 Toyota Prius (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2000 Highlander (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Camry(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006(est.) Corolla(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 (est.) Sienna (expected) (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2007 (est.) Lexus 400h (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Lexus GS 450 (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006

Center for Automotive Research, June 2005

23

New Variable Incentives Have Been Incorporated in 2005 EPACT

Fuel cellsLean burn (diesel)HybridsAlternative fuels (Implies flat $4000 for EVs)

24

In EPACT 2005, New Fuel Cell and Lean Burn (Diesel) Incentives Have Been Created Requiring a Percent Increase vs. the City Mpg Baselines Shown Below

Incentive baselines for FCVs and Diesels (lean burn) as defined in EPACT 2005

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1500

-1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000

-8500

Inerita Weight Class

2002

Lite

rs/1

00 k

m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2002

refe

renc

e m

pg

Car l/100 kmTruck l/100 kmCar mpgTruck mpg

25

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150 &above

Lean Burn (Diesel) Percent City MPG Increase over Reference Vehicle

Inco

me

Tax

Cre

dit

The Diesel Has Difficult Hurdles to Obtain Significant Credits

< 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 56000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8

26

The IMA and Full HEVs Can Easily Increase City MPG by > 30% and Exceed Emissions

Requirements to Obtain Credit

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

30-40% 40-50% >50%Gain in City MPG over Comparable Vehicle

Cre

dit a

s Pe

rcen

t of I

ncre

men

tal C

ost

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Max

imum

Cre

dit (

$)

% of Incremental CostMaximum $ Amount

< 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 56000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8

27

1500-1750

2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000-8500

25%50%

75%100%

125%150%

175%

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

Tota

l Cre

dit

Inertia Weight Class

City MPG % Gain

Light Truck “Credit Surface”

Total Credits Are A Complex Combination of % Gains and Lifetime Fuel Savings