emerging trends in us vehicle travel demand · emerging trends in us vehicle travel demand . ....

Emerging Trends in US Vehicle Travel Demand

www.travelbehavior.us

2014 EIA Energy Conference Nancy McGuckin

Travel Behavior Analyst

• Historic pattern of VMT per capita • Differences in changes since 2007 by State • Private and Commercial VMT in context • Why Millenials?


8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

10,500

VMT/

Capi

ta p

er Y

ear


VMT per capita: an unprecedented change:

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census Population (Jul 1) and HPMS Historic VM-1 Tables including all VMT and Census Population Estimates

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

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th D

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orni

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ylan

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ucky

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ticut

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aine

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Virg

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izona

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exic

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lina

Penn

sylv

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Flor

ida

Miss

issip

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aska

Chan

ge in

VM

T pe

r Cap

ita, 2

007-

2012

Changes in per capita VMT by State 2007-2012:


Overall US decline is -6%

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of HPMS VM-2 including all VMT and ACS population estimates by state

Changes in per Capita VMT by State (graphic):


Source of graphic: Steve Polzin, CUTR

Sources of Roadway VMT:


Private vehicle travel:

Percent of Household-based VMT

Percent of Total

Roadway VMT Commuting 27

76

Shopping 15

Personal errands 19

Social and recreational 25

School/Medical/All Other 14

Subtotal Private vehicle VMT 100%

Commercial and Utility Vehicles: 24

Total Roadway Vehicle Travel: 100%

Commuting

Shopping

Personal business and

errands

Social and recreational

All other

Commercial and Utility

Vehicles

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS 2009 and HPMS VM-1 2009

All Roadway VMT

Private vehicle travel for all purposes has declined: (Measured in VMT per Capita)


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data series

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1995 2001 2009

Per c

apita

Ann

ual V

ehic

le M

iles

Trends in per Capita Annual Vehicle Miles by Major Purpose

Commuting

Shopping

Errands

SocRec inc. Visit

-20% -19% -20% -20%

-11%

-2% -3% -5%

1% 5%

8%

2%

24% 22%

10%

Perc

ent C

hang

e in

VM

T pe

r Cap

ita fr

om

1995

-200

9

Percent Change in VMT per Capita: 1995 to 2009

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Why focus on millenials?


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series, comparing VMT per capita from the NHTS data series, 1995-2009

15-19

• The Economy • Social Trends • Changes in Values • Information-Communication Technology


Millenials are a big cohort, as numerous as the baby-boom:


In 2030, Millenials will outnumber Baby-Boomers by 22 million:

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census historic tables 1900 to 2010, and 2030 forecast

For young people, travel by all means is declining and the shift really took place between 2000 and 2009:


Source: FHWAs “The Next Generation Of Travel”, 2011. Note that all travel is included, not just VMT

Young men’s vehicle travel rates declined more than women (16-29 years old):


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1995 2001 2009

Trends in Vehicle Miles : 16-29 year olds

Men Women

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 1995 2001 2009

Daily

Trip

s or M

iles p

er P

erso

n

Trends in Vehicle Trips : 16-29 year olds

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series

Factors influencing Millenials changing travel demand: www.travelbehavior.us

Information and Communications Technology

Historic low workforce participation among 16-29 year olds (coupled with historic high participation by 55 and older):


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1995 2001 2009

Perc

ent W

orke

rs

Percent Workers within Age Group

16-24

25-29

55-64

65+

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series * The quote is from an informal survey (web-based) conducted by McGuckin, 2010

I'm not so sure how much of this has to do with technology or the driving age. I think it has more to do with the fact that young people are one of the largest portions of the population who have been hurt by the recent recession.

-Courtney

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1995 1997 2002 2004 2007

Men Drivers as Percent of the Male Population

25-29

20-24

15-19

Young people (esp. men) delay licensing:

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Table D20 Highway Statistics Historic Summary


-- 39 percent said they’d rather walk/bike or use public transportation --37 percent said they were either too busy or didn't have the time to get a license. --32 percent said that owning and maintaining a vehicle was just too expensive. --31 percent said they could hitch a ride with someone else if needed. ---9 percent said they were worried about driving's effects on the environment. --8 percent said they could work or communicate online. Source: The Reasons for the Recent Decline in Young Driver Licensing in the U.S:, UMTRI, Schoettle and Sivak m Aug 2013, at: http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/99124/102951.pdf?sequence=1


Delayed marriage is at an unprecedented high:

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Age

at F

irst M

arria

ge

Men Women

Source: Age at first marriage from McGuckin’s analysis from data at http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/

According to Pew, only 21 percent of 18-29 year olds are married. “Marriage these days signals that you’ve figured out how to be a grown up. You’ve “arrived,” having finished school, settled into a career path, bought a condo, figured out who you are, and found your soul mate. The fairytale wedding is your gateway into adult life.” 2010 Pew Research Report

Millenials are more likely to live at home:

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1970 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

Percent of Young People Living at Home

18-24 Men

18-24 Women

25-34 Men

25-34 Women

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present * The quote is from an informal survey (web-based) conducted by McGuckin, 2010

“He could be helping his parents ... maybe they need assistance with paying bills / taking care of the house/etc. He may have had some financial troubles in the past or he might just be saving up his money to buy a nice home of his own in the near future. Don’t assume the worst!” -Eric


Some young people may have a different attitude toward auto ownership:


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1995 2001 2009Pe

rcen

t

Percent of People by Age in Zero Veh HHs

25-29

All Other

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series

“For Millennials, cars are not status symbols; they are perceived as unnecessary luxuries that are:

▫ Expensive ▫ Harmful to the environment ▫ Antisocial

They would rather own a great smartphone or laptop instead. (Real-time, portable technology helps to confer the sense of “freedom” that owning a car does not)”

Latitudes Report on Phase 1 findings for TCRP “Millenials and Mobility”

Most non-drivers live in households with other drivers...part of the car-sharing culture:


0

20

40

60

80

100

16-19 20-24 25-29 All other Non-Drivers

Percent of Non-Drivers who Live with Other Drivers “My roommate thinks I'm nuts for not driving a car, but I think he's nuts for going around the block for a half hour just to find a suitable parking spot.” -Jake

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 National Household Travel Survey * The quote is from an informal survey (web-based) conducted by McGuckin, 2010

Millenials are more likely to use transit:


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS

Millenials who use transit prefer it for both practical and ideological reasons:

It is significantly more affordable

It gives them “me time” to rest, reflect, or do work

It makes them feel more ethical:

It reduces traffic

It benefits the environment

It feels more social, more a part of the community vs. feeling isolated in a car

It allows people to avoid car hassles (often costly), including parking, traffic, and car upkeep

--Latitudes Report on Phase 1 Findings for TCRP

“Mobility and Millenials” - 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Millenials

Gen Xers

Boomers

Matures

Annual Trips Per Capita on Transit


• Widespread adoption of new technology • Some evidence for substitution effects for social and shopping • System-wide changes in the brick-and-mortar and delivery for goods and services

Unprecedented adoption of communications technology: www.travelbehavior.us

Source: Exploring America’s Online Experience::http://www.ntia.doc.gov/files/ntia/publications

Household Adoption Rates, 1997-2011

“The Internet is becoming the

town square for the global village of

tomorrow.”

Bill Gates Business@the Speed

of Thought

The Connected Generation • 72 percent of US households have internet

connection – 83 percent of individuals 18-29 (Census 2011)

• 90 percent of millenials use the Internet daily, compared to 79 percent of boomers

• 75 percent of millenials use social networking sites, compared to only 30 percent of boomers.

• There was a 21 percent increase in online course enrollment in colleges across the country in 2012.


Percent who BYOD (Bring their own device) to the Office—Desk Phones Just Don’t Work for Me:

http://www.eweek.com/mobile/byod-trends-millennials-have-little-use-for-desk-phones-report.html The last three bullets from: Pew Research Center. The

Millenials: Confident. Connected. Open to Change.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-change

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2010/02/24/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-change

Over all ages, 72 percent of Americans go on-line everyday, but not all activities have a direct travel substitute:


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Take a virual tour of a location

Take part in chat rooms

Buy a product on-line

Look for How-To, Do-it-Yourself or Repair info

Used Classified ads like Craigslist

Did banking on-line

Watch video on-line (You-Tube)

Played On-Line Games

Go on-line just to pass the time

Get News

Used social or professional sites (FB, LN)

On-line activities reported “Yesterday”:

2010

2005

2001

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the Pew “Usage over Time” data, all ages. Only people reporting on-line activity

There may be a substitution effect in time-use--people are spending more time on-line for leisure and less time in travel for leisure:


Source: McGuckin’s analysis of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data

“Computers and the internet play a huge role in [millenials’] everyday lives; they depend on this technology for everything from work to socializing to getting around.”

--Latitudes Phase 1 findings for TCRP “Millenials and Mobility”

8.5 7.0

11.5 8.1

10.8

6.4

16.7

7.4

Computer Usefor Leisure

Travel forSocializing

Computer Usefor Leisure

Travel forSocializing

All Ages 18-30 yrs

Trends in Time Spent on the Computer and for Traveling for Leisure and Social Activities

Minutes per capita per day

2005 2010

We need to be able to link on-line behavior and travel behavior more conclusively...


339

412 418 406

317

395 388 392

16-24 24-34 35-54 AllAge of Respondent

Small but significant differences in shopping behavior on-line and on-road

Did Not Shop On-Line Made Purchases On-Line

Per capita shopping trips by on-line purchase behavior

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS, self reports only

77.1 percent of millennial respondents reported browsing online before purchasing in the store, nearly 17 percentage points higher than the general population. 58 percent of millennial respondents admitted to ‘showrooming’, nearly 10 percentage points higher than older shoppers. 56.3 percent of millennial respondents admitted to looking at an item in one store, yet purchasing the item online from a different retailer – double the rate of the general population.

Source: Millennial Shopping Habits By Samer Forzley Pythion.com

“Showrooming’ is browsing in a brick and mortar shop and then purchasing on-line for lower cost

http://www.pythian.com/blog/author/sforzley

System-wide changes are taking place all around us: (and faster than I can make a new slide!)

Old School New School • Bookstores • Travel Agent • Blockbuster • Avis/Hertz • Greyhound • Taxi

• Priceline • Facebook/Myspace • Big Data • The Internet

• Amazon /Kindle • On-line booking • Streaming Video • Zipcar • Megabus • Uber/Lyft

• Hotel Tonight • IM/Skype/Vine • Bigger Data • The Internet of Things


People are responding to those changes the way people do:


Incrementally

Via Peer Culture

Economically

Hard-to-quantify

• We are at a critical juncture • Many of the demographic factors that pushed VMT in the last few decades have played out • Need to re-evaluate our forecasts


Several demographic ‘push’ factors for VMT growth have leveled off:


0

20

40

60

80

100

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Pe

rcen

t of o

f Hou

seho

lds

Changes in Family Structure

Single Person

Other Family (single parent, roomates, same sex couples)

Nuclear Family (Married Couple w/ or w/o children)

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009

Workers per Household

0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009

Vehicles per Household

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88

Millenials (16-27)

Gen X (28-44)

Boomers (45-63)

Matures 64+

Mode Share in POV

• Percent of Families with Children

• Women’s entry into labor force

• Migration from city to suburbs

• Vehicle occupancy (-->Drive alone)

Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS data series

Millenials: Will their changes persist? • Emerging adulthood as a life-stage • A tough economy • A skeptical eye toward car ownership:

Is it affordable? More of a hassle than a convenience? Are other options better (for health, environment, etc)?

• Favorable attitudes toward dense urban living, low-speed modes and car-sharing

• Modest measurable effects from connected-ness and ICT



The Past is history....

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,00019

3619

3819

4019

4219

4419

4619

4819

5019

5219

5419

5619

5819

6019

6219

6419

6619

6819

7019

7219

7419

7619

7819

8019

8219

8419

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9019

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0020

0220

0420

0620

0820

1020

1220

1420

1620

1820

2020

2220

2420

2620

2820

30

Vehi

cle

Mile

s of T

rave

l (00

0,00

0)

Source: McGuckins analysis and projection of HPMS VM-1 data, re-creating the US PIRG graphic Fig 1 in “New Directions’

Return to Historic Growth Slow and Steady per Capita Declines

Stable per Capita VMT

The future is uncertain: • The evidence suggests that

the nation’s per-capita decline in driving cannot be dismissed as a temporary side effect of the recession.

• At stable per-capita rates, total passenger VMT would grow about 40% between 2010 and 2050.

• In contrast some ‘optimistic’ forecasts have 170% increase to 2050.


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

2042

2046

2050

VMT

Fore

cast

in T

rillio

ns

(000

,000

,000

,000

)

Business asUsual (3%Growth)

Stable perCapita (1%growth)

ContinuedDecline (-.01%)

Source: McGuckin’s forecast of VMT scenarios using historic HPMS VM-1

Thank you! Emerging Trends in US Vehicle Travel Demand

Nancy McGuckin



emerging trends in us vehicle travel demand · emerging trends in us vehicle travel demand . ....

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