employment trends global and regional labour market information & employment trends and issues...

Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends

Global and Regional Labour Market Information & Employment

Trends and Issues

Lawrence Jeff Johnson

Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation

Geneva Switzerland


Global employment trends

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Tot

al e

mpl

oyed

(bi

llions

)

50.0%

52.0%

54.0%

56.0%

58.0%

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

70.0%

Em

ployment-to-population ratio

Total employed (billions)

Employment-to-population ratio


Global Unemployment trends

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

To

tal u

ne

mp

loye

d (

mill

ion

s)

5.7%

5.8%

5.9%

6.0%

6.1%

6.2%

6.3%

6.4%

6.5%

6.6%

6.7%

Un

em

plo

yme

nt ra

te

Total unemployed (millions)

Unemployment rate


Unemployment Rates: by region, 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

World DevelopedEconomies

andEuropean

Union

Central andEasternEurope

(non-EU)and CIS

East Asia South EastAsia and

the P acific

South Asia LatinAmericaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Sub-SaharanAfrica

%

Youth Female Male Total


The share of working poor in total employment, 1995-2005

0

500'000

1'000'000

1'500'000

2'000'000

2'500'000

3'000'000

3'500'000

4'000'000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Wor

kers

(in

mill

ions

)

Workers living on more than US$2 per dayUS $2 Working Poor ('000s)US$1 Working Poor ('000s)


US$1 working poverty around the world(global estimate 520 million in 2005)

East Asia20%

South East Asia and the Pacific

6%

South Asia38%

Latin America and the Caribbean

5%

Central and Eastern Europe

(non-EU) and CIS1%

Sub-Saharan Africa29%

Middle East and North Africa

1%


2 dollar pie


Share of US$1 working poor, 1990-2015

Sub-Saharan Africa

27.9

55.854.055.8

0

20

40

60

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Transition Economies

0.9

5.2

1.72.1

0

3

6

9

12

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

East Asia

17.9

35.9

6.5

17.0

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

South-east Asia

9.9

19.9

7.3

11.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

South Asia

26.5

53.0

19.3

38.1

0

20

40

60

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


1.9

2.3

3.9

2.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


8.0

16.1

11.5

13.5

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Rate of progress needed to halveworking povertyProgress to date and projection

Projected progress (2003-2015)


Share of US$2 working poor, 1990-2015

Rate of progress needed to halveworking poverty

Progress to date and projection

Projected progress (2003-2015)


19.7

39.3

28.833.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sub-Saharan Africa

44.5

87.689.1 89.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Transition Economies

2.5

9.85.0

23.6

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

East Asia

39.5

25.8

79.1

49.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

South-east Asia

34.6

69.1

47.758.8

0

20

40

60

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

South Asia

46.6

77.4

93.187.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


16.9

33.9

24.9

30.4

0

6

12

18

24

30

36

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015


430 million new entrants into the global labour force (2005-2015)

Sub-Saharan Africa19%

Central and Eastern Europe

(non-EU) and CIS1%

East Asia11%

South East Asia and the Pacific

13%

South Asia31%

Developed Economies and European Union

3%


10%


12%


Starting Point

• In today’s world of widening inequality, differences in productivity emerge as an important policy factor towards creating the conditions for decent work and poverty reduction.

• The promotion of decent and productive work should be the central aim of economic development


Policy Issues

• How to ensure that we get the right balance between productivity growth and job creation for each country?

• What are the most important rural development policies for improving productivity, generating decent employment and reducing poverty?

• How to balance flexibility and security in the labour market to promote economy-wide productivity and growth?

• How to overcome the “productivity divide” between large and small scale business activities?


Increased Productivity

Increased Real Wages

Poverty Alleviation

Productivity & Output Growth

Decent Work & Employment

Growth

Poverty Alleviation

Sustainable & Expanding Growth

Increased Earnings

Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality

Increased Investments & Demand

IncreasedReal Earnings & Social Benefits

Technological Improvements

Increased Demand, Increased Output

Increased Demand & Well-Being

Increased Technological Change

Virtuous Spiral


KKey

IIndicators of the Labour

MMarket 2 0 0 52 0 0 5

K I L MK I L M


Questions:

What types of economic activities are people engaged in?

What is the size and composition of the labour force?

How many hours do people work and how much do they earn for this work?

How many people are without work and looking for work?

What types of inequalities exist, for example in terms of earnings and employment situation?

Are earnings keeping pace with the cost of living?

How are youth and women faring in the labour market?


When developing indicators, one must strike a balance between:

Maximize scope of coverage, i.e., provide the greatest number of data points for the greatest number of countries

Harmonize the indicators across countries and time (same type of sources, sampling procedures, methodologies and definitions)

Coverage Comparability


• Informal sector employment

• Hours of work

• Part-time workers

• Employment by sector

• Status in employment

• Employment-to-population ratio

• Labour force participation rate

Key Indicators of the Labour Market

Educational attainment and illiteracy

Inactivity rate

Time-related underemployment

Unemployment by educational attainment

• Long-term unemployment

• Youth unemployment

• Unemployment

Poverty and income distribution

Labour market flows

Productivity and unit labour cost

Hourly compensation costs

Occupational wages rates & earnings

Real manufacturing wage indices


60

70

80

90

100

0 5'000 10'000 15'000 20'000 25'000

GDP per capita at PPP

Ma

le l

ab

ou

r fo

rce

pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n

rate

(p

erce

nta

ges

)

Note: The middle curve is a smooth version of the scatter plot, obtained by cubic splines.

Labour force participation rates and GDP per capita at PPP, 1990

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

GDP per capita at PPP

Fem

ale

la

bo

ur

forc

e p

art

icip

ati

on

rate

(p

erce

nta

ges

)


0

5

10

15

20

25

0 5 10 15 20 25Males (% of total employment)

Fem

ales

(% o

f tot

al e

mpl

oym

ent)

F - Construction J - Financial intermediation

K - Real estate, renting and business activities M - Education

Employment by 1-digit sector level (ISIC 3), latest years


Annual number of hours worked per personAnnual number of hours worked per person

Annual Hours WorkedLatest Year

2,011 to 2,480 (7)1,891 to 2,010 (9)1,821 to 1,890 (8)1,691 to 1,820 (10)1,360 to 1,690 (10)


Growth in value added per worker, total economy (1993-latest year)


Employment Trends Research

Global Employment TrendsSpecial Reports for Youth & Women

WER KILM


Labor Market Information & Employment Trends

Lawrence Jeff Johnson

Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation

Geneva Switzerland

employment trends global and regional labour market information & employment trends and issues...

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