Employment’s Role in Enabling and Constraining Marriage in the Middle East and North Africa

Caroline Krafft, St. Catherine UniversityRagui Assaad, University of Minnesota

Economic Research Forum 23rd Annual ConferenceAmman, JordanMarch 18, 2016

2

Marriage & work in MENA• Marriage is sole socially acceptable route to most

important adult roles• Independent living, sexual relations, childbearing

• Islamic marriage contract provides for asymmetric bargaining power within marriage• Greatest bargaining power for women and their families is up front• Attempt to secure optimal living conditions up front raises costs of

marriage

• Youth unemployment is very high • Often due to strategic queuing behavior to obtain public sector

or the even scarcer formal private sector jobs

3

Employment in the life course• Interdependence of different life course transitions

• Transition to marriage contingent upon success of transition into labor market, particularly for men• Men and their families bear most of the costs of marriage in MENA• Men must signal economic readiness for marriage and must

accumulate savings to contribute to costs of marriage

• For women, work prior to marriage may generate key savings to assist in marriage costs, but may also pose reputational risks for marriage

4

Understanding the role of work• Previous research on Egypt and Iran looks at the impact

of having a job or a “good” job on enabling the transition to marriage for men• Assaad, Binzel and Gadallah (2010), Egel and Salehi-Isfahani

(2010), Assaad and Krafft (2015a)

• Those who obtain good jobs are a select group (endogeneity)• Higher socioeconomic status and higher aspirations for adult living

conditions• Or reverse causality where women leave work at marriage

• Why does work matter?

5

Key questions1. How do different labor market statuses (various types of

employment, unemployment, being out of labor force) affect the timing and probability of marriage for men and women?

2. How much of the effect of employment on marriage is mediated through non-pecuniary aspects of jobs, vs. earnings and ability to accumulate savings?

3. Is selection into different types of employment related to marriage timing?

4. Does remaining unemployed to queue/search for formal jobs pay off as a strategy for accelerating marriage?

6

Data• Data from three comparable surveys carried out by ERF

and the relevant National Statistical Office:• Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey of 2012 (ELMPS 2012)• Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey of 2010 (JLMPS 2010)• Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey of 2014 (TLMPS 2014)

• Include detailed labor market histories and information on timing of first marriage

• Use of panel data on Egypt (1998, 2006) to get at past employment characteristics not included in LM histories, such as earnings prior to marriage

7

How do we study the relationship between work and marriage?• Outcome of interest: age at marriage

• Model in terms of hazard: probability of getting married at a particular age if still unmarried

• Address selection/potential reverse causality in relationship between employment and marriage with instrumental variables• Local availability of public sector employment

8

What affects marriage timing?• Labor market status (time varying)

• Public sector, private formal wage work, private informal wage work, non-wage work, unemployment, out of labor force

• Education attained • Time-varying covariate indicating in-school status• Mother’s and father’s education • Father’s employment status and occupation when individual was

15• Number of brothers and sisters• Cohort of birth trends• Region of birth and urban/rural location of birth• Age in year dummies to model the baseline hazard non-

parametrically

9

Median Age at Marriage by Birth Cohort, Sex and Country

Median age at marriage rose substantially for both men and women in Tunisia. In Egypt, it rose and then fell, more so for men than for women. In Jordan, it is fairly flat for men, but rising for women.

10

Findings: The role of employment• For men, compared to private informal wage work:

• Public sector work speeds up marriage (All)• Private formal work speeds up marriage, but less than public (Egypt)• Non-wage work no different (All)• Being unemployed or out of the labor force delays marriage (All)

• For women, compared to being out of the labor force:• Public sector work speeds up marriage (All)• Private sector (formal/informal) work is associated with delayed marriage, but

likely reverse causality (Egypt, Jordan)• Having had a private sector job in the past speeds up marriage (All)

• Accounting for endogeneity (selection/reverse causality) increases the effect of public sector work on accelerating marriage.

11

Findings: Why does employment matter?• For men, public sector jobs have a benefit that is greater

than even formal private sector jobs• Job security and social insurance of formal jobs do not explain the

full benefit of a public sector job• Not driven by wage differences, wages prior to marriage do not

explain marriage timing or change the relationship with employment

• Having a higher wage in the past does appear to help women marry.• Contributions to savings and costs

12

Findings: Queuing in Unemployment • In seeking public sector work youth may queue in the

unemployed state.

• Using our models, we investigated whether queuing is an effective strategy for the marriage market• Unemployment may delay marriage, but public sector work

accelerates marriage--tradeoff

• Simulation results show tradeoff depends on: • Probability of obtaining a public sector job • Duration of queuing

13

Queuing for men in Egypt

0 1 2 3 4 5 605

101520253035

29 29 29 29 29 29 3030 30 30 30 30 30 31

Public sector job ever obtained YesNo

Years unemployed

Med

ian

age

at M

arri

age

14

Queuing for women in Jordan

0 1 2 3 4 5 605

101520253035

21 22 22 23 23 23 2322 22 22 23 23 23 23

Public sector job ever obtained YesNo

Years unemployed

Med

ian

age

at M

arri

age

15

Conclusions• Considerable public anxiety around delays in marriage

• Access to employment critical to transition to marriage and adulthood• Our work confirms the importance of (good) work, especially for men

• Especially public sector work—beyond wages or formality• Work helps women save

• Given the importance of good work, it may be worthwhile to queue in unemployment, seeking good work

• Policies must consider these links• Example: that entrepreneurship delays marriage relative to formal

employment may make it a less appealing alternative

16

Thank you