en-roads review andrew jones, lori siegel, jack homer, and john sterman november 26, 2014

En-ROADS Review

Andrew Jones, Lori Siegel, Jack Homer, and John Sterman

November 26, 2014

Agenda• Welcome, Introductions and Context• Model background• Operating the model (brief

demonstration of reference scenario)

• Model structure, reference scenario vs. data, and policy/sensitivity testing

• Questions, comments, and “what-ifs”

• How to proceed

Model Development Team for En-ROADS

Dr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana SystemsDr. Jack Homer, Homer ConsultingAndrew Jones, Climate InteractiveDr. Phil Rice, Climate InteractiveDr. Beth Sawin, Climate InteractiveDr. Lori Siegel, Climate InteractiveStephanie McCauley, Climate InteractiveProf. John Sterman, MIT System Dynamics Group

• Purpose of the External Review:• Assessment from experts of En-ROADS’

appropriateness relative to its purpose• Determine areas for improvement

• Purpose of En-ROADS:• Improve understanding of important energy,

land use, and climate dynamics among non-scientists as a means to effective action by:

• Policymakers• Educators• The Public

Purposes

Building Confidence in This Simulation

• Policy relevance• Evidence-based structure and parameters• Fit to history• Reference run compared with others’

projections and structurally explained• Policy/sensitivity results, structurally

explained

The Simulation in Action

What global changes over the next decade do you think are required and possible to drive the energy transition?

* As a driver of energy demand, not technological innovation or investment

** New Zero C: technological innovation leading to a new zero carbon energy supply, such as Thorium fission

Population and Economic Growth*

Energy Efficiency and

Demand

Energy Supply

Other

Population growth

No changeDecrease Increase

GDP per capita

Mobile

Stationary

No change

Modestincrease

Big increase

Coal

Oil

Gas

Solar & Wind

Biofuels

New Zero C**

Nuclear

CCS

No changeLess More

No change $/ton

Achieved by (year)

Land use emissions

Other green- house gases

No change

Small decrease

Big decrease

Carbon price

like methane & N2O

Other Policy and Regulatory

(Example Handout for Workshop Participants)

• EMF Model Suite• BP Energy Outlook• HYDE (PBL)• US EIA WEO• LBL• HADCRUT• IPCC

Incorporate structure, equations, and data from diverse research teams

DOE UN IEA GISS CDIAC NCDC NOAA MIT EPPA V. Smil Maddison Houghton

Historical DataGDP Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965.

Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000

Total Final Energy Demand

Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965 Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014

Electricity production

WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035

CO2 emissions from energy

Hyde energy consumption by fuel type, 1925-1965 Hyde historical data for Kaya identity, 1800-2000WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035

Primary Energy Demand by Source

WEO 2012 data for final and primary energy by source, 1990-2035

Energy Intensity World Resources Institute (2011), US Energy Information Administration (2014), International Energy Agency (2011), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (1998)

Published ProjectionsProjected Energy Mix, GHG emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and temperature

Energy Information Agency (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2014World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2012Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)Hyde 2010British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 20104

Projected Population

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2014). World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, CD-ROM Edition. Medium, Low, and High Scenarios.

Energy Prices British Petroleum (BP) Statistical Review of World Energy 20104Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release 2013

Studies on Carbon-Temperature DynamicsCarbon Cycle and Temperature

Bolin, B. 1986. Fiddaman. T.S. 1997. Nordhaus, W. D. 1992, 1994, 2000 Goudriaan, J. and P. Ketner. 1984. Oeschger, H., U. Siegenthaler, et al. 1975.Rotmans, J. 1990. Schwartz, S.E. 2007. Schneider, S.H., and S.L. Thompson. 1981. Wullschleger, S. D., W. M. Post, et al. 1995.

Studies Providing Key Parameter EstimatesCommercialization Time

Akiner, S. & Aldis, A. (2004) Smil,V. (2006)

Progress Ratios Junginger, M., et al. (2010)McDonald, A., Schrattenholzer, L (2001)

Non-Renewable Energy Resources

IPCC. (2007)World Energy Council. (2010)

Renewable Energy Resources

IPCC. (2011)Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)

Construction Materials

J. Sullivan, et al. (2010)Kris R. Voorspools, et al. (2000)

Development Time Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)US Department of Energy (2008)

Construction Time Jacobson, M. Z. (2009)US Department of Energy (2008)

Lifecycle Emissions Hiroki, H. (2005)White, S. & Kulcinski, G. (1998)

Building Efficiency US Department of Energy (2011)

Transportation US Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2011)

En-ROADS and C-ROADS Scope

Other GHG emissions

Population and

GDP/capita(1 or 6

regions)

En-ROADSSystem of Energy/Economics/Climate

Land use

Energy Demand, Supply, and Prices

Technology and Policies

CO2 emissions

GHG cycles

Climate Tempera-ture

C-ROADS

Other forcings

Impacts(pH, SLR)

GHG emissionsby regions

GHG emissions

Simulation Demonstration

Overview of Structure and Reference Scenario

Assumptions

En-ROADS Simulation Structure

Energy Supply• Carbon intensity by source• Costs, learning, R&D

success, complementary assets, resource availability

Energy Demand• Energy intensity• Stationary & mobile• Elec & Non-elec• Aging, efficiency, &

retrofits

Economy• GDP/capita• Population

Climate• Emissions• Concen-

trations• Temp.• Sea level

rise

GHGs emissions and removals• Other gases • Land use CO2

EnergyCO2

EmissionsPolicies andScenarios• Carbon price• Subsidies/Tax• Tech.

breakthrough

PricesMarket-clearing

Utilization

Hydro

Nuclear

Stationary• Electric• Non-Elec

Mobile• Electric• Non-Elec

ElectricityProduction•Elec thermal •CCS•Renewables•Hydro•New Tech•Nuclear

Nonelectric Consumption

s

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

Biofuels

Extracted Fuels

s

Oil

NaturalGas

Coal

Biofuels

Delivered Fuels Carriers Demand

Renewables (Solar, Wind, Geothermal)

New Tech

En-ROADS Energy Flows

En-ROADS, though aggregate, captures realistic energy/economy dynamics

1. Separate pricing of 4 fuel types (extracted/spot, delivered) and electricity

2. Short-term and long-term consumer responses to price: curtailment, rebound, energy efficiency, choice of fuels and electricity

3. Extracted fuel prices fluctuate via endogenous commodity cycle4. Delivered fuel prices affected by extracted prices, but more stable5. Electricity source decisions based largely on cost comparison, but

also network complementarities and performance standards6. Learning curves reduce energy production costs7. Time delays (and possible “overheating”) in building new supply

capacity8. Fossil fuel production costs increased by resource depletion9. Other production costs (biofuel, hydro, renewables) potentially

increased by flow limits

• In the reference scenario, extracted fuel prices are set equal to their historical values during 1990-2013, and change endogenously thereafter. • It is possible to reproduce the cyclical nature of extracted prices

broadly but not all of the historical ups and downs

• 1990-2013 energy volumes, which we want to reproduce, are affected by extracted prices

• We want to give the model the proper head start to produce plausible future cycles; without that head start, the 2013 disequilibrium is muffled and the future cycles are less prominent as a result

• The reference scenario assumes no carbon pricing or other policy interventions

• UN medium population scenario

• Growth in GDP per capita at a decreasing rate

Reference Scenario Assumptions

• Kaya Variables• Compared with EMF suite to 2100

• Energy Supply by Source• Compared with WEO to 2020

• Energy Prices by Source• Fossil fuel prices compared with EIA to 2040

Reference Scenario Results

Kaya Variables to 2100 vs. EMF27

GDP Comparisons to EMF

700

525

350

175

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

T$U

S20

10/Y

ear

EMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS GDP

Global GDP to 2100

Energy Intensity Comparisons to EMF

20

15

10

5

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

T$U

S20

10

EMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref energy intensity of GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Total Primary Energy Intensity of GDP

Energy Intensity to 2100

Energy Comparisons to EMF

2000

1500

1000

500

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Total energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv Demand

Energy Use to 2100

Carbon Intensity Comparisons to EMF

80

60

40

20

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

MtC

O2/

EJ

EMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of energy[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Carbon Intensity of Primary Energy

Carbon Intensity of Energy to 2100

Carbon Intensity of GDP Comparisons to EMF

.7

.525

.35

.175

0

2000 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075 2090Time (Year)

GtC

O2/

T$U

S20

10

EMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 intensity of GDP[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Average Carbon Intensity of GDP

Carbon Intensity of GDP to 2100

CO2 from Energy Comparisons to EMF

100

75

50

25

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

GtC

O2/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref FF CO2 emissions[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS CO2 Emissions from Energy

CO2 Emissions from Energy to 2100

Energy Supply by Source to 2020 vs. WEO

Fuel Production to 2020

INCLUDES• Renewables

e.g., solar, wind, geothermal • HydroEXCLUDES • Bio

Primary Energy from Coal

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADSWEO

BPEIA

Primary Energy from Oil

300

225

150

75

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADSWEO

BPEIA

Primary Energy from Gas

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADSWEO

BPEIA

Primary Energy from Nuclear

40

30

20

10

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADSWEO

BPEIA

Primary Energy from Renew

90

67.5

45

22.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Note: Blue line = En-ROADS outputRed dots represent single data points from WEO 2012.


Main

Final Energy from NonElec Oil

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Gas

70

52.5

35

17.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Bio

60

45

30

15

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from NonElec Coal

50

37.5

25

12.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Mobile Fuel

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Total Final Energy (Consumption)

500

375

250

125

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

CO2 FF Emissions

40

30

20

10

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Fuel End-Use to 2020

INCLUDES• Renewables

e.g., solar, wind, geothermalEXCLUDES • Hydro• Bio

Final Energy from Nuclear

20

15

10

5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Hydro

20

15

10

5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Elec Oil

8

6

4

2

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Elec Gas

30

22.5

15

7.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Elec Bio

3

2.25

1.5

.75

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Elec Coal

50

37.5

25

12.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Renewables

6

4.5

3

1.5

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADS WEO

Final Energy from Electricity

200

150

100

50

0

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EnROADSWEO

BP

*

Electricity Production to 2020


Fossil Fuel Prices to 2040 vs. EIA

Note: En-ROADS extracted prices for oil, coal, and gas are set equal to their historical values during 1990-2013, and are simulated starting thereafter; delivered fuel prices are simulated throughout.

Fuel Price of Extracted Oil

200

100

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/bo

e

En-ROADS Extracted Oil PricesEIA Extracted Oil Prices

Fuel Price of Delivered Oil

200

100

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/bo

eEn-ROADS Delivered Oil PricesEIA Delivered Oil Prices

Oil Prices 1990 to 2040 vs. EIA

Fuel Price of Extracted Coal

70

35

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/tc

e

En-ROADS Extracted Coal PricesEIA Extracted Coal Prices

Fuel Price of Delivered Coal

100

50

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/tc

e

En-ROADS Delivered Coal PricesEIA Delivered Coal Prices

Fuel Price of Extracted Gas

20

10

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/M

CF

En-ROADS ExtractedGas PricesEIA Extracted Gas Prices

Fuel Price of Delivered Gas

20

10

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Time (Year)

$/M

CF

En-ROADS Delivered Gas PricesEIA Delivered Gas Prices

Coal and Gas Prices to 2040 vs. EIA

Policy/Sensitivity Testing

Two Settings for Each Policy: High & ModeratePolicy Lever Setting

Carbon priceBase: 0 $/TonCO2High: 100 $/TonCO2

Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2

Electric subsidy

Base: 0 $/GJ

High: 20 $/GJ (~0.072 $/kWh)

Moderate: 10 $/GJ (~0.036 $/kWh)

Source subsidy renewables

Base: 0 $/GJ

High: 10 $/GJ (~0.036 $/kWh)

Moderate: 5 $/GJ (~0.018 $/kWh)

Coal taxBase: 0 $/GJHigh: 5 $/GJ (~147 $/tce)

Moderate: 1 $/GJ (~29 $/tce)

Energy efficiency improvement (e.g., in response to performance standards)

Base:Stationary: 1.2 %/yearMobile: 0.5 %/year

High: 5 %/yearModerate: 2 %/year

Key Uncertain Parameters for Sensitivity Testing

Parameter Ref. Run Value Min Max Notes

Carrier network sensitivity [“CNS”] 0.2 0.1 0.5

Exponent (positive) for the effect of current carrier share on carrier attractiveness. Early adoption of electricity is slow but facilitates more rapid adoption later on.

Demand elasticity of fuels [“DE”]

Fuels: 0.1Electricity: 0.2 0.05 0.2

Short-term elasticity (negative) of end-use demand to effective energy price (i.e., price adjusted for end-use energy efficiency). Affects expressed energy demand and market-clearing prices.

End use carrier share cost sensitivity [“EUCS”]

2 1 3Exponent (negative) for the effect of aggregate fuel vs. electricity cost on the shares of new end-use capital investment.

Long term GDP growth rate 1.6 1 2.4 Global long-term GDP growth rate approached

gradually 2014 to 2100.Initial available resource remaining in EJ [“IARR”]

Coal: 100000, Oil: 12500, Gas: 9000

Coal: 70000, Oil: 6000, Gas: 6000

Coal: 150000, Oil: 25000, Gas: 25000 Recoverable resource remaining as of 1990.

Profit effect on desired extraction capacity [“EC”]

1.15 1.05 1.25 Determines the rate of expansion for extraction capacity in response to profitability.

Progress ratio renewables (“PR”) 0.80 0.75 0.9 Ratio of unit cost per doubling of cumulative

production. Equals 1 minus the learning rate.

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

High Carbon TaxCO2 Emissions from Energy vs. Ref-

erence

CNS highCNS lowDE fuels highDE fuels lowDefault RefEUCS highEUCS lowGDP growth rate highGDP growth rate lowIARR highIARR lowProfit on desired EC highProfit on desired EC lowProgress ratio highProgress ratio low

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

High Carbon TaxCO2 Emissions from Energy vs. Ref-

erence


Results most sensitive to uncertainty in initial available resources remaining (IARR).

Summary of Policy/Sensitivity Results – 2100(% of reference scenario result; sensitivity conditions)

Policy Lever SettingCO2

EmissionsEnergy

IntensityCarbon

Intensity

Carbon priceHigh:

100 $/TonCO2

23 - 47 % 80 - 89 % 26 - 58 %

Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2 46 - 64 % 86 - 93 % 49 - 72 %

Electricity subsidy to consumers

High: 20 $/GJ 151 - 185 % 169 - 207 % 83 - 94 %

Moderate: 10 $/GJ 113 - 132 % 113 - 140 % 91 - 100 %


High: 10 $/GJ 80 - 86 % 114 - 124 % 64 - 75 %

Moderate: 5 $/GJ 92 - 95 % 105 - 109 % 84 - 90 %

Coal taxHigh: 5 $/GJ 42 - 73 % 89 - 94 % 47 - 78 %

Moderate: 1 $/GJ 55 - 92 % 90 - 99 % 61 - 93 %

Energy efficiency improvement

High: 5 %/year 39 - 47 % 44 - 50 % 89 - 94 %

Moderate: 2 %/year 58 - 87 % 59 - 89 % 97 - 102 %

How to Proceed• Feedback on this presentation• Set date for next review meeting• Invitations

Goals or principles• We want to have

• Disciplines: three groups of people • Modeling professionals of two types: Energy and Climate. Some

people are both.• Learning, communications, interface design people.• User representatives. Policy people with a science/economics

scholarly background.

• Diversity• At least 1 or 2 women • At least 1 from developing world, likely China• At least 1 from EU

• Recognition• Naki, Wigley, or Edmonds. IE, perhaps we set a goal of at

least one of the three (unless someone else nominates someone for that list)

Draft invite(email from John Weyant)Dear [insert name] –

I’m writing to invite you to review the En-ROADS simulation of Climate Interactive and MIT Sloan.No travel would be necessary – you would attend a small webinar, review the PPT deck and experiment with the simulation online if you want, and share your comments with me.I’m chairing the review because I think this simulation is so important – it extends their earlier C-ROADS simulation and complements the Energy Model Forum suite of models (indeed, they calibrated to the suite and included all the results in their software), aiming at policymaker use, online/app accessibility and broad education.We’ve used the simulation with great success for the last three years in a workshop with our incoming grad students here at Stanford – a two minute video of the event is here. A MIT video is here. And they’ve engaged policymakers in London and elsewhere. A short abstract is here.If you are willing to help, please reply to this email and share your availability here on a doodle poll. We are hoping to hold two webinars (you attend the more convenient one) on TKTK. Please use the doodle link to let us know which days are best for you. If necessary, we could schedule a private meeting with you.I appreciate your urgency on this. We want to be ready for the Paris COP and other engagements.Thank you for your help. I think it could make a big difference in the world.

Sincerely,John Weyant

http://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/

http://www.climateinteractive.org/

http://jsterman.scripts.mit.edu/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id4DZ0NiKk4

https://vimeo.com/101516531

http://www.climateinteractive.org/policy-exercises-and-serious-games/climate-interactive-in-the-uk-building-grounded-optimism-on-climate-solutions/

http://www.climateinteractive.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/En-ROADS-Abstract.pdf

http://doodle.com/m5qw2q5byd6xtnug

Reviewers to Invite• Modeling Geeks

• Chair John Weyant (yes) [email protected] • Nebojsa (Naki) Nakicenovic, IIASA

• Or Kewyan Riahi

• Rich Richels• Ottmar Idenhoffer• Brian O’Neil• Bill Moomaw, [email protected] • Susan Solomon, MIT• Jae Edmonds

• Policy and Users• Jonathan Pershing, DOE [email protected]

• Learning, Communications, Interface• George Richardson, [email protected] • Elke Weber from Columbia (female)

• China• Zhao Xiusheng, Tsinghua, [email protected]

• John W says either Jae OR Rich Richels

mailto:[email protected]





Appendix A: Supply & Demand Curves

Long Term Supply - Flow Constraints

2

1.45

0.9

0 75 150 225 300 375 450Potential Energy Resource Demand (EJ/Year)

Dm

nl

Supply curve for flow constraint[RBio] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RNuc] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RHydro] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RRenew] : RefSupply curve for flow constraint[RNew] : Ref

Long Term Supply - Cum Production

2

1

0

0 2500 5000 7500 10000Cumulative production (EJ)

Dm

nl

Supply curve for depletion[RCoal] : RefSupply curve for depletion[ROil] : RefSupply curve for depletion[RGas] : RefSupply curve for depletion[RBio] : Ref

Short Term Supply Curve for Elec

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0

-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Indicated utiliz by source Y axis : Ref

Short Term Supply Curve for Fuels

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0

-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Indicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RCoal] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[ROil] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RGas] : RefIndicated fuel utiliz by source Y axis[RBio] : Ref

Effect on Normal Retirement

4

3

2

1

0

-2 -1.40 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 1 1.60PCCR X axis (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Effect of profitability on retirement by source Y axis[NonElec] : RefEffect of profitability on retirement by source Y axis[Elec] : Ref

Price sensitivity of demand = 1.0

Long Term Demand Curve

2

1.5

1

.5

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Energy cost ($/GJ)

Dm

nl

End use energy substitition effect for demand curve : Ref

Effect of Energy Cost on Capital Lifetime

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

0 1 2 3 4Market price to price basis ratio (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Effect of energy cost on capital lifetime curve[Stationary] : RefEffect of energy cost on capital lifetime curve[Mobile] : Ref

Demand Elasticity of Fuels = 0.1(for each fuel type)

Short Term Demand Curve for Fuels

2

1.5

1

.5

0

0 1 2 3 4Ratio of market market to price basis (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Industry fuel demand to ref demand[RCoal] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[ROil] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[RGas] : RefIndustry fuel demand to ref demand[RBio] : Ref

Demand Elasticity of Electricity = 0.2

Short Term Demand Curve for Elec

2

1.5

1

.5

0

0 1 2 3 4Ratio of market market to price basis (dmnl)

Dm

nl

Industry demand to reference demand : Ref

Appendix B: More Policy/Sensitivity Results

56

572020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Carbon TaxEffect on Primary Energy Use


582020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Carbon TaxEffect on Carbon Intensity of Energy


Summary of Policy/Sensitivity Results – 2050(% of base run result; range across sensitivity conditions)

59

Policy Lever Setting Carbon Emissions Energy Intensity Carbon Intensity

Carbon taxHigh: 100 $/TonCO2 55 - 62 % 79 - 84 % 66 - 77 %

Moderate: 50 $/TonCO2 71 - 77 % 88 - 91 % 78 - 86 %

Electricity subsidy to consumers

High: 20 $/GJ 103 - 105 % 110 - 113 % 93 - 95 %

Moderate: 10 $/GJ 102 - 103 % 105 - 107 % 96 - 97 %


High: 10 $/GJ 89 - 99 % 101 - 107 % 85 - 99 %

Moderate: 5 $/GJ 96 - 100 % 100 - 103 % 94 - 99 %

Coal TaxHigh: 5 $/GJ 73 - 79 % 91 - 93 % 80 - 87 %

Moderate: 1 $/GJ 92 - 94 % 98 - 98 % 94 - 97 %


High: 5 %/year 63 - 69 % 62 - 67 % 101 - 103 %

Moderate: 2 %/year 92 - 93 % 91 - 92 % 101 - 101 %

60

Scenario 2050 2100

tonsCO2/EJ % of Base tonsCO2/EJ % of Base

Base 49.7 43.9

C tax

High 36.3 73% 20.1 46%

Moderate 41.3 83% 27.7 63%

Electricity subsidy

High 46.3 93% 39.5 90%

Moderate 47.8 96% 41.4 94%

Renewables subsidy

High 43.8 88% 30.3 69%

Moderate 47.3 95% 38.4 87%

Coal tax

High 42.3 85% 29.0 66%

Moderate 47.6 96% 39.4 90%


High 50.6 102% 40.1 91%

Moderate 50.3 101% 43.4 99%

Policy Impacts on Carbon Intensity of Energy withDefault Parameter Estimates

61

Scenario 2050 2100

EJ/Trillion $ % of Base EJ/Trillion $ % of Base

Base 6.4 4.2

C tax

High 5.2 82% 3.5 84%

Moderate 5.8 90% 3.8 91%

Electricity subsidy

High 7.1 111% 8.0 192%

Moderate 6.8 106% 5.7 136%

Renewables subsidy

High 6.7 105% 5.0 120%

Moderate 6.5 102% 4.5 107%

Coal tax

High 5.9 92% 3.8 91%

Moderate 6.3 98% 4.1 98%


High 4.1 64% 2.0 49%

Moderate 5.8 91% 2.6 62%

Policy Impacts on Energy Intensity of GDP withDefault Parameter Estimates

62

Scenario 2050 2100

EJ/year % of Base EJ/year % of Base

Base 1090.8 1781.0

C tax

High 895.9 82% 1502.2 84%

Moderate 984.7 90% 1614.7 91%

Electricity subsidy

High 1215.7 111% 3427.0 192%

Moderate 1160.4 106% 2425.9 136%

Renewables subsidy

High 1149.2 105% 2131.9 120%

Moderate 1114.2 102% 1903.8 107%

Coal tax

High 1003.4 92% 1624.4 91%

Moderate 1069.1 98% 1750.9 98%


High 700.7 64% 870.4 49%

Moderate 996.8 91% 1100.2 62%

Policy Impacts on Energy Use withDefault Parameter Estimates

63

Scenario 2050 2100

GtonsCO2/year % of Base GtonsCO2/year % of Base

Base 54.2 78.3

C tax

High 32.5 60% 30.2 39%

Moderate 40.7 75% 44.8 57%

Electricity subsidy

High 56.3 104% 135.3 173%

Moderate 55.4 102% 100.4 128%

Renewables subsidy

High 50.3 93% 64.7 83%

Moderate 52.7 97% 73.0 93%

Coal tax

High 42.4 78% 47.0 60%

Moderate 50.9 94% 69.0 88%


High 35.4 65% 34.9 45%

Moderate 50.1 92% 47.8 61%

Policy Impacts on CO2 from Energy withDefault Parameter Estimates

64To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Carbon Tax% Change from Reference in 2100


65To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Moderate Carbon Tax% Change from Reference in 2100


66To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

High Electricity Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100


67To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Moderate Electricity Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100


68To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

High Renewables Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100


69To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Moderate Renewables Subsidy% Change from Reference in 2100


70To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Coal Tax% Change from Reference in 2100


71To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Moderate Coal Tax% Change from Reference in 2100


72To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

High Energy Intensity Improvement% Change from Reference in 2100


73To

tal Prim

ary En

ergy E

quiv Dem

and (E

J/yea

r)

Carbon in

tensit

y of p

rimary

energ

y (tonsC

O2/EJ)

CO2 Emiss

ions fro

m Energ

y (GtonsC

O2/year)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Moderate Energy Intensity Improvement% Change from Reference in 2100


Appendix C: Causal Loop Diagram

Fossil fuelprices

Learning effectfor non-FFelectricity

production costs

GDP

CO2 emissionsfrom energy

Carbon intensityof energy

Energy intensityof GDP

Energyefficienciesof end uses

Electricityshares ofend uses

Electricity price

Depletion &learning effects

for FF productioncosts

Non-FF shareof electricityproduction

Improvements inend-use energy

efficiencies

Energy prices forstationary and mobile

end uses

Non-FF electricityproduction costs

Fossil fuelproductioncapacity &utilization

Fossil fuelproduction

Non-FF electricityproduction

Fossil fueldemand

FFprice

cycles

FFlearning

anddepletion

Non-FFlearning,network,

andflow-limits

Non-FFelectricityultimatelysubstitutes

for FFs

Curtailment,Rebound,

andEfficiencyresponses

Network &flow-limit effects

Energy use

Key Model Dynamics to 2100

Fossil fuelprices

Learning effectfor non-FFelectricity

production costs

GDP

CO2 emissionsfrom energy

Carbon intensityof energy

Energy intensityof GDP

Energyefficienciesof end uses

Electricityshares ofend uses

Electricity price

Depletion &learning effects

for FF productioncosts

Non-FF shareof electricityproduction

Improvements inend-use energy

efficiencies

Energy prices forstationary and mobile

end uses

Non-FF electricityproduction costs

Fossil fuelproductioncapacity &utilization

Fossil fuelproduction

Non-FF electricityproduction

Fossil fueldemand

FFprice

cycles

FFlearning

anddepletion

Non-FFlearning,network,

andflow-limits

Non-FFelectricityultimatelysubstitutes

for FFs

Carbon tax

Subsidy toelectricity users

Tax on coalproducers

Subsidy to renewableelectricity producers

Policies for end-useenergy efficiency

Curtailment,Rebound,

andEfficiencyresponses

Network &flow-limit effects

Energy use

Where the Levers Fit In: 5 Examples

* Coal equivalent weight = 1

Coal Comparisons to EMF

1500

1125

750

375

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Coal

Coal Comparisons to EMF

1500

1125

750

375

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Coal[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Coal

Primary Energy Equivalence by Source

* Oil equivalent weight = 1

Oil Comparisons to EMF

500

375

250

125

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Oil

Oil Comparisons to EMF

500

375

250

125

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Oil[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Oil


* Natural gas equivalent weight = 1

Gas Comparisons to EMF

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Gas

Gas Comparisons to EMF

400

300

200

100

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Gas[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Gas


* Bio equivalent weight = 1

Bio Comparisons to EMF

300

225

150

75

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Bio

Bio Comparisons to EMF

300

225

150

75

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Primary Energy Biomass[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Bio


* Nuclear equivalent weight = 1

Nuclear Comparisons to EMF

300

225

150

75

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Nuclear

Nuclear Comparisons to EMF

300

225

150

75

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Nuclear primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy from Nuclear


* Renewables equivalent weight = 3

Renewables Comparisons to EMF

1000

750

500

250

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv from NonBio Renewables

Renewables Comparisons to EMF

1000

750

500

250

0

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

EMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 BET] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 EC IAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 FARM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GCAM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 GRAPE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMACLIM] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 IMAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MERGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 MESSAGE] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 POLES] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 REMIND] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 TIAM WORLD] : RefEMF27 Ref Renewable energy primary equiv[EMF27 WITCH] : RefEn-ROADS Primary Energy Equiv from NonBio Renewables


Appendix D: Electricity Price to 2010 vs. EIA (US)…and simulated to 2100

En-ROADS

Electricity Price to 2010 vs. EIA (US)

Where US electricity price stands globally

Market Price of Electricity

.2

.15

.1

.05

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Time (Year)

$/kW

h

Market price of electricity in KWh : Ref

Electricity Price to 2100

Appendix E: Reference Scenario Stacked Graphs

Total Final Energy (Consumption)

900

675

450

225

0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

Nonelec stationary final demandNonelec mobile final demandElec stationary final demandElec mobile final demand

Energy End Use by Segment to 2100

Total CO2 Emissions by Carrier

80

60

40

20

0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)

Gto

nsC

O2/

Yea

r

CO2 emissions from energy by carrier[NonElec] : RefCO2 emissions from energy by carrier[Elec] : Ref

CO2 Emissions by End Use Carrier to 2100

Delivered Fuel Production

3000

2250

1500

750

0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

CoalOil

GasBio

Fuel Production by Source to 2100

Electric Production by Source

500

375

250

125

0

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Time (Year)

EJ/

Yea

r

Production for elec[RCoal] : RefProduction for elec[RCoal CCS] : RefProduction for elec[ROil] : RefProduction for elec[ROil CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RGas] : RefProduction for elec[RGas CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RBio] : RefProduction for elec[RBio CCS] : RefProduction for elec[RNuc] : RefProduction for elec[RHydro] : RefProduction for elec[RRenew] : RefProduction for elec[RNew] : Ref

Electricity Production by Source to 2100

en-roads review andrew jones, lori siegel, jack homer, and john sterman november 26, 2014

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