energetyka wiatrowa energetyka ... - polenergia.pl · energetyka wiatrowa energetyka konwencjonalna...
TRANSCRIPT
POLENERGIA GROUP
3Q 2018 Results14 November 2018
ENERGETYKA WIATROWA ENERGETYKA KONWENCJONALNA DYSTRYBUCJA OBRÓT
▪ Continuation of the restructuring Biomass segment
• Disposal of Biomass North assets in October 2018 for 0.6m PLN
• Ongoing talks with the bank financing Biomass East and search for
an investor in the project.
Market environment1
▪ Auction on ca. 1GW for onshore wind farms took part on November 5, 2018. Polenergia submitted four projects with a total capacity of 199MW.
▪ Auction for PV is planned in November 2018. Polenergia plans to participate with a portfolio of capacity of 8MW.
▪ Increase in GC price to 134,7 PLN/MWh on 30.09.2018 and to 162,7 PLN/MWh on 6.11.2018.
▪ Slight decrease in electricity prices on spot and forward market.
▪ Still high price of CO2 emission allowances amounted to 21,2 EUR on 30.09.2018. Decrease in price to 17,6 EUR on 6.11.2018.
▪ Supreme Administrative Court decided in favour of communities in case of real estate taxes paid in 2017.
▪ Council of Ministers approved the draft amendment of Energy Law which is aimed to introduce 100% power exchange obligation for energy trading.
▪ Due to dynamic growth of energy prices, independent energy trading companies have financial problems. Six companies ceased providing electricity sales this
year (Energia dla Firm, Corrente, Elektrociepłownia Andrychów, Energetyczne Centrum, Gaspol and GOEE Energia).
Group activities2
▪ ENS received correction of the gas compensation for 2017, ca. 47,6m PLN.
▪ Completion of auction preparation for four wind farm projects with a capacity
of 199MW (auction took place on 5.11.) and PV projects with a capacity of
8MW.
2
3Q 2018 Highlights
AUCTIONS FOR NEW WIND FARMS ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW INVESTMENTS
CONTINUATION OF GREEN CERTIFICATES PRICE INCREASE
TERMINATION OF ELECTRICITY PRICE GROWING TREND
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
9,8
10
10,2
10,4
10,6
10,8
11
11,2
11,4
11,6
01/2018 02/2018 03/2018 04/2018 05/2018 06/2018 07/2018 08/2018 09/2018 10/2018 11/2018
Polish coal EUA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
01/2018 02/2018 03/2018 04/2018 05/2018 06/2018 07/2018 08/2018 09/2018 10/2018
Volume in k [right] Share price [left]
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
01/2018 02/2018 03/2018 04/2018 05/2018 06/2018 07/2018 08/2018 09/2018 10/2018
GC price [left] EE price (IRDN24) [right]
150
200
250
300
350
01/2018 02/2018 03/2018 04/2018 05/2018 06/2018 07/2018 08/2018 09/2018 10/2018
FWD 3Q18 FWD 4Q18 FWD Cal19
*The average price of GC in 1H 2017 amounted to 37,7 PLN/MWh
Green certificates and electricity prices
3
Key indexes and market prices
Stock performance of Polenergia S.A.
thousands of
sharesPLN/share
21,7
Share price at the end of the month21,7
1 2
Electricity forward prices Polish coal and CO2 emission allowances prices3 4
PLN/GJ EUR/TPLN/MWh
134,7
209,2
PLN/MWhPLN/MWh
The average price of GC in the period - weighted by transaction volume
95,9 255,7
162,7
275,6
289,1
271,7 21,2
17,6
19,8
11,3
Quarterly
Electricity Green certificates
*The result normalised by effect of RET declaration
adjustment and partial reversal of historical costs in
Mycielin (7,3m PLN in total)
132 141
7437
178
2017
206
2018
-14%
135 133
74
35
209
20182017
168 -20%
156142
2018 Actual2017 Actual
-9%
Summary of key operational parameters – Wind energy segment
WF production (gross) and LF %1 Average cost per MW* [kPLN]
(without balancing)2 Average revenues per MWh (after balancing costs) at the Group level
[PLN/MWh]3
4
33
52
2018 Actual2017 Actual
+56%
154132
3Q 20183Q 2017
-14%
3951
3Q 2017 3Q 2018
+31%
493,5459,2
31%
2017
28%
2018
-7%
YTD Load factor (%)
YTD Production (GWh)
145,5
124,4
2018
27%
2017
23%
-15%
Q Load factor (%)
Q Production (GWh)
YTD
Electricity Green certificates
RET
Other expenses
RET
Other expenses
159
48
117
172
52
112
Heat price
(PLN/GJ)
Electricity price
(PLN/MWh)
Cogeneration
certificates price
(PLN/MWh)
+8%
+8%
-5%
36
75
38
75
Energy Sales Energy Distribution
+7%
+1%
Quarterly
Summary of key operational parameters
Distribution segment – sales
[GWh]4
Biomass segment – production
[thousand tons]5
Conventional energy segment – sales [GWh] and average prices
[PLN/MWh]6
5
YTD
3Q 2018
3Q 2017
107
222
115
223
Energy Sales Energy Distribution
+7%
0%
YTD 2017
YTD 2018
7,3
12,3
4,0 3,8
North East
-45%
-69%
3Q 2017
3Q 2018
22,4
36,5
10,5
29,0
North East
-53%
-21%
YTD 2017
YTD 2018
551
310
85
557
299
82
Cogeneration
certificates (GWh)
Sales of
electricity (GWh)
Heat
Generated (TJ)
+1%
-3%
-3%
YTD 2017
YTD 2018
159
66
117
173
70
112
Cogeneration
certificates price
(PLN/MWh)
Electricity price
(PLN/MWh)
Heat price
(PLN/GJ)
+8%
+6%
-5%169
58
15
168
59
15
Sales of
electricity (GWh)
Heat
Generated (TJ)
Cogeneration
certificates (GWh)
0%
+2%
+2%
3Q 2017
3Q 2018
54,9 64,4
+17%
2017
YTD
2018
YTD
20,68,5
-59%
136,2 121,7
-11%
392,2 427,0
+9%
130,9 151,3
+16%
2017
3 Q
2018
3 Q
Financial Highlights
Revenues (excluding
Trading segment)
▪ Increase due to higher revenues of the conventional energy and
wind power segments.
EBITDA(normalized)
▪ 3Q: Increase in EBITDA as a result of the higher EBITDA of the
conventional energy segment.
▪ YTD: lower EBITDA as a result of the loss on the Trading
segment in 1H 2018.
15,8 20,6
+30%
Net profit(normalized)
▪ 3Q: Higher net profit due to higher operating result compensated
by higher income tax.
▪ YTD: Lower net profit due to lower operating result.
6
HIGHER REVENUES AND DECREASE IN EBITDA AS A RESULT OF THE LOSS
ON ELECTRICITY TRADING CONTRACTS IN 2Q
EBITDA by operating segments
9,9
8,4
DistributionEBITDA
YTD 2017
Wind power Convent.
Energy
(1,0)
(24,5)
(1,4)
Biomass Trading
(5,9)
Unallocated
costs
0,1
Development EBITDA
YTD 2018
136,2
121,7
7
Wind power: effect of higher green certificates and electricity sales prices
and lower operating costs (mainly property tax), partially compensated by
lower production
Conventional energy: higher revenues from correction of gas compensation
for 2017
Distribution: higher cost of energy purchase compensated by lower
operating costs
Biomass: lower result due to deteriorating situation on the biomass market
which results in lower sales volume and higher price of the raw material
Trading: lower result on electricity trading as a consequence of the loss on
trading segment caused by sudden increase in electricity prices in 1H 2018
Unallocated costs: additional costs connected with sale of stake in Offshore
projects two processes of tender offers and the impact of VAT settlements
for 2017 and 2018
Development: no material variance vs last year
Comments
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND POWER SEGMENT AND CONVENTIONAL ENERGY SEGMENT COMPENSATED BY LOWER EBITDA IN
OTHER SEGMENTS – MAINLY THE EFFECT OF THE LOSS ON TRADING CONTRACTS IN 2Q
12,3
54,9
Unallocated
costs
1,1
Wind power Trading
(1,0)
Distribution
(0,2)(1,2)
Convent.
Energy
Biomass
64,4(1,3)
EBITDA
3Q 2017
Development EBITDA
3Q 2018
(0,1)
YTD
3 Q
122
38
60
CFF
(56)
YTD 2018
EBITDA
13
∆ WC
(80)
CFI
(21)
CIT
1
Other YTD 2018
NCF
(136)
64
(12)
30
CFF3Q 2018
EBITDA
(24)
∆ WC
(28)
CFI
(47)
3Q 2018
NCF
(6) (1)
CIT Other
(71)
Consolidated cash flow
• ∆ WC: mainly changes in working capital in the trading segment and
conventional energy segment
• CFI: impact of Offshore projects financing, ENS overhaul and Polenergia
Dystrybucja investment plan
• CFF: mainly debt service in the wind power segment and conventional
energy segment. Includes credit prepayment in the amount of 23,7 mPLN
due to the end of restructuring of Gawałowice, Skurpie and Rajgród farms.
8
IMPROVEMENT IN NET CASH FLOW DUE TO SETTLEMENT OF SALE OF STAKE IN OFFSHORE PROJECT
COMPENSATED BY LOAN PREPAYMENT IN WIND POWER SEGMENT
Comments
YTD
3 Q
Comments
• ∆ WC: mainly changes in working capital in the trading segment and
conventional energy segment.
• CFI: settlement of sale of 50% stake in Offshore projects compensated by
the impact of above mentioned 3Q events
• CFF: mainly debt service in the wind power segment and conventional
energy segment. Includes credit prepayment in the amount of 55,7 mPLN.
Credit prepayment
Credit prepayment
Debt in Wind Power segment
9
Debt structure as of 30 September 2018
Debt by segments
Debt by currency (EUR vs. PLN)Debt – interest rate hedging Net debt (3Q 2018 vs. 3Q 2017)
FURTHER DECREASE IN NET DEBT
NO CURRENCY RISK
INTEREST RATE RISK SECURED IN ABOUT 20%. 77% OF WIND FARMS DEBT SUCESSFULLY RESTRUCTURED
912 mPLN
912 mPLN 912 mPLN
88%
1% 2%
5%
5%
Biomass
Wind power
Distribution
Trading
Convent. Energy
97,8%
Debt in PLN
Debt in EUR2,2%
20,3%
79,7%
Debt secured
Unsecured debt
76,7% 23,3%Restructured debt The remaining debt
806 mPLN
(576)
(713)
3Q 2018 3Q 2017
10
Summary of segment results
11
Production (net), YTD
Productivity of Polenergia wind farms above average*
Wind power - production
* Based on net productivity (after own consumption and losses) due to the availability of data
Operating segments
APPLICATION OF MODERN TECHNOLOGIES, EXCELLENT LOCATIONS AND THE EXPERIENCED TECHNICAL TEAM
ALLOW FOR ACHIEVING PRODUCTIVITY ABOVE MARKET AVERAGE
Dipol TaliaAmon Gawłowice Rajgród Skurpie Mycielin Razem
2017
29%26%
2018
464,3
428,2
-8%
29,623,5
54,345,4
35,230,6
108,9
94,9
49,244,7
92,7
83,2
94,2
103,4
2,522%20%21%24%
2017
16%
20172018 20182018 2017
19%
34%
2017
30%34%
2018
30%
2017
27%
2018
32%
20172017
13%29%
2018
31%
20182018 2017
YTD Produktywność (%)
YTD Produckcja (GWh)
Krzęcin
33,4%
23,3% 22,9%
37,0%
30,6%
19,2% 17,3%
34,4%
29,3%27,0%
21,7%
39,1%
27,4%22,8%
19,0%
36,8%
26,1% 24,8%
40,7%
35,0%
22,2% 19,9%
38,9%
32,6% 30,9%
25,3%
45,4%
31,4%26,7%
20,9%
1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017 1Q2018 2Q2018 3Q2018
Średnia produktywność farm wiatrowych w Polsce Średnia produktywność farm wiatrowych Polenergii
YTD Production (GWh)
YTD Load factor (%)
Total
Average load factor of wind farms in Poland Average load factor of Polenergia wind farms
12
• Lower EE production volume by 20,8 GWh.
• Higher average price of green certificates and electricity (in case of projects
selling on market prices).
• Operating costs lower mainly due to lower RET in 2018 partially
compensated by higher balancing costs (higher unit price in 2018)
Operating segments
14,815,9
5,2
1,5
Volume
effect
(0,5)
Price effect3Q 2017 Balancing
costs
3Q 2018
(5,0)
Operating
costs
(0,2)
Other
+7%
18,9
15,9
9,3
Balancing
costs
(1,9)
Electricity
0,7
(11,1)
Green
certificates
Operating
costs
Other 3Q 2018
1 EBITDA build-up
2 EBITDA bridge
Comments
Wind power - 3 Q
HIGHER GREEN CERTIFICATES PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
13
• Lower production volume by 36,0 GWh.
• Higher average price of green certificates and electricity (in case of projects
selling on market prices)
• Operating costs lower due to lower RET in 2018 and lower technical costs
(reversal of historical costs in Mycielin and the effect of the gear change in
FW Puck in 1H 2017) partially compensated by higher balancing costs
(higher unit price).
Operating segments
13,9
8,5
YTD 2017
(8,0)
Volume
effect
Price effect
(2,4)
(2,2)
Balancing
costs
Operating
costs
Other YTD 2018
55,3
65,2
+18%
70,765,2
28,4(29,6)
Electricity Green
certificates
(7,3)
3,0
Operating
costs
OtherBalancing
costs
EBITDA
YTD 2018
1 EBITDA build-up
2 EBITDA bridge
Comments
Wind power - YTD
HIGHER GREEN CERTIFICATES PRICES AND LOWER OPERATING COSTS
14
28,9
41,2
5,1
7,6
HeatEBITDA
3Q 2017
0,0
Electricity *
(0,4)(0,1)
Gas
compensation
OtherYellow
certificates
EBITDA
3Q 2018
+42%
8,0
1,70,4
Electricity *
1,4
Heat
29,7
Gas
compensation
Yellow
certificates
Other EBITDA
3Q 2018
41,2
Operating segments
• Higher margin on electricity due to higher stranded costs compensation
(impact of change in electricity price in 2019).
• Higher revenues from gas compensation due to higher adjustment for 2017
(+20,8m) announced in July 2018 in relation to adjustment for 2016
(+13,6m) announced in July 2017.
* Includes compensation for stranded costs and revenues from black-start services
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Conventional Energy – 3 Q
2 EBITDA bridge
STABLE OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE. HIGHER EBITDA DUE TO INCREASE IN STRANDED COSTS COMPENSTATION AND
HIGHER REVENUES FROM GAS COMPENSATION.
15
8,3
1,5
EBITDA
YTD 2017
72,3
Electricity *
(0,1)
Heat Gas
compensation
(0,6)(0,7)
Yellow
certificates
Other EBITDA
YTD 2018
63,9 +13%
8,4 3,6
9,2
Heat
72,3
Electricity *
50,0
Gas
compensation
Yellow
certificates
1,1
Other EBITDA
YTD 2018
Operating segments
• Higher margin on electricity due to higher stranded costs compensation
(impact of change in electricity, gas and CO2 prices).
• Higher revenues from gas compensation due to 1) higher adjustment for
2017 (+20,8m) announced in July 2018 in relation to adjustment for 2016
(+13,6m) announced in July 2017., 2) higher gas cost in 2018 (higher
variable price) compensated partially by lower forecasted value of Wg
index.
• Lower revenues from yellow certificates due to lower amount of certificates
(lower heat generation) and lower price.
* Includes compensation for stranded costs and revenues from black-start services
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Conventional Energy – YTD
2 EBITDA bridge
STABLE OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE. HIGHER EBITDA DUE TO INCREASE IN STRANDED COSTS COMPENSTATION AND
HIGHER REVENUES FROM GAS COMPENSATION.
16
Distribution – 3 Q
0,2
(0,5)
EBITDA
3Q 2017
DistributionSale of
electricity
0,3
OPEX
(0,1)
Other
4,90,0
Polenergia
Kogeneracja
EBITDA
3Q 2018
5,0
-3%
Other
4,7
Sale of
electricity
Distribution EBITDA
3Q 2018
(2,3)
OPEX
1,6
0,2
Polenergia
Kogeneracja
0,7
4,9
Operating segments
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
2 EBITDA bridge
STABLE OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE. LOWER EBITDA DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY PURCHASE PRICE
PARTIALLY COMPENSATED BY LOWER OPEX AND BETTER RESULT OF DISTRIBUTION SEGMENT
• Lower margin on electricity sale due to higher electricity cost.
• Higher distribution margin results from higher volume (investment plan
effect)
• Lower OPEX due to savings on external services, payroll and RET costs.
17
Distribution – YTD
Other
(1,6)
EBITDA
YTD 2017
Sale of
electricity
(0,1)
Distribution
0,6
OPEX
0,0 0,1
Polenergia
Kogeneracja
EBITDA
YTD 2018
13,0
12,0
-8%
Sale of
electricity
12,0(7,1)
13,6
Distribution OPEX
2,0
Other
0,5
Polenergia
Kogeneracja
EBITDA
YTD 2018
2,9
• Lower margin on electricity sale due to higher electricity cost.
• Lower distribution margin mainly due to lower connection fees in 1H 2018
• Lower OPEX due to savings on external services, payroll and RET costs
Operating segments
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
2 EBITDA bridge
STABLE OPERATIONAL PERFORMANCE. LOWER EBITDA DUE TO INCREASE IN ELECTRICITY PURCHASE PRICE
PARTIALLY COMPENSATED BY LOWER OPEX
18
7,5
6,3
2,5
4,7
(8,1)
EBITDA
3Q 2017
Margin -
trading
EBITDA
3Q 2018
Margin - wind
farm portfolio
Operational
costs and
provisions
Margin - other
contracts
(0,3)
-16%
Operating segments
4,7
6,35,0
EBITDA 3Q 2018Margin - other
contracts
Margin - trading
(0,7)
Margin - wind
farm portfolio
(2,8)
Operational costs
and provisions
• Higher result on trading portfolio mainly due to increase of green certificates
price.
• Lower margin on electricity sales from WF due to lower production and the
need to buy back some of the energy on the market to close the hedging
contracts and the effect of the revaluation of certificate store in 3Q 2017 with
a significant increase in price during the quarter.
• Increase in margin on other contracts due to ongoing optimization.
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Trading – 3 Q
LOSS ON TRADING PARTIALY COMPENSATED BY INCREASE IN MARGIN ON OTHER CONTRACTS
2 EBITDA bridge
19
Operating segments
9,2
(15,3)(5,7)
(23,9)
EBITDA
YTD 2017
Margin - trading Margin - wind
farm portfolio
5,6
Margin - other
contracts
(0,5)
Operational
costs and
provisions
EBITDA
YTD 2018
• Loss on trading portfolio mainly due to sudden increase of electricity price in
1H 2018.
• Lower margin on electricity sales from WF due to lower production and the
need to buy back some of the energy on the market to close the hedging
contracts and the effect of the revaluation of certificate store in 3Q 2017 with
a significant increase in price during the quarter.
• Increase in margin on other contracts due to ongoing optimization.
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Trading - YTD
LOSS ON TRADING PARTIALY COMPENSATED BY INCREASE IN MARGIN ON OTHER CONTRACTS
(12,3)
(15,3)
(1,1)
(8,1)
Margin - trading
6,3
Margin - wind
farm portfolio
EBITDA
YTD 2018
Margin - other
contracts
Operational costs
and provisions
2 EBITDA bridge
2,9
(0,5)
Koszt surowcaPrzychody ze
sprzedaży
(2,0)
(1,3)
Koszty operacyjne
i pozostałe
EBITDA
3Q 2018
0,5
(0,5)
Koszty operacyjne
i pozostałe
EBITDA
3Q 2018
Przychody ze
sprzedaży
EBITDA
3Q 2017
(4,0)1,6
1,5
Koszt surowca
20
Operating segments
• Lower revenues, raw material costs and operating costs caused by sale of
the Biomass South plant and lower sales volume in other plants.
• In October sale of assets of the Biomass North plant in the amount of 0.6
mPLN.
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Biomass – 3 Q
2 EBITDA bridge
LOWER SALES VOLUME AND HIGHER RAW MATERIAL PRICES.
RESTRUCTURING PROCESS IN THE BIOMASS SEGMENT IN PROGRESS.
Sales
revenues
Cost of raw
material
Operational and
other costs
Sales
revenues
Cost of raw
material
Operational and
other costs
1,3
2,5
EBITDA
YTD 2017
Koszt surowca
1,9(6,9)
Przychody ze
sprzedaży
Koszty
operacyjne
i pozostałe
1,2
Wpływ
sprzedaży
aktywów
EBITDA
YTD 2018
0,0
13,1
(8,1)
(6,3)
Przychody ze
sprzedaży
Koszty
operacyjne
i pozostałe
Koszt surowca EBITDA
YTD 2018
1,2
Wpływ sprzedaży
aktywów
0,0
21
Operating segments
• Lower revenues, raw material costs and operating costs caused by sale of
the Biomass South plant and lower sales volume in other plants.
• At the level of EBITDA YTD visible effect of sale of assets of the Biomass
South plant above the book value allowing for the recognition of a positive
results on sales in the amount of 1.2 mPLN.
• In October sale of assets of the Biomass North plant in the amount of 0.6
mPLN.
1 EBITDA build-up Comments
Biomass - YTD
2 EBITDA bridge
LOWER SALES VOLUME AND HIGHER RAW MATERIAL PRICES.
RESTRUCTURING PROCESS IN THE BIOMASS SEGMENT IN PROGRESS.
Sales
revenues
Cost of raw
material
Operational and
other costsSale of assets
Sales
revenues
Cost of raw
material
Operational and
other costs
Sale
of assets
22
Onshore RTB (Dębsk, Szymankowo, Kostomłoty, Piekło):
• Group possess project portfolio with total capacity of 199MW which
are in final development phase and posses building permit.
• Projects took part in auctions which took place on 5 November 2018.
• Group has been waiting for auction results. Discussions on debt
financing in progress.
Offshore:
• Group develops two offshore wind farms (MFW Bałtyk II Sp. z o.o.
and MFW Bałtyk III Sp. z o.o.) located on Baltic Sea with total
capacity up to 1200 MW.
• Building term depend from implementation of proper regulation
system.
• Additionally Group analyses potential to reinstate preparation works
connected with project Polenergia Bałtyk I S.A.
• In 2Q 2018 agreement for sale of 50% stake in Offshore projects with
Equinor (Statoil previously).
PV:
• Group posses portfolio of PV project out of which 8MW will take part
in auction in November 2018
• Development works on other projects with a total capacity of 21 MW
will be continued in 2018 and 2019
Wińsko:
• Group develops biomass power plant with a capacity of 31 MW,
connected to the power grid.
• In 2Q 2018 project received Integrated Permission and decision
concerning prequalification to auction from ERO.
• Group considers disposal of the project before the auction or after
the successful auction.
Development activity
DEVELOPMENT OF OFFSHORE PROJECTS CONTINUES
PARTICIPATION IN 2018 AUCTION FOR ONSHORE (199 MW) AND PV (8 MW).