energies renouvelables renewable energy g15 – dakar 6 november 2012 benoit lebot undp climate...
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Energies Renouvelables Renewable Energy
G15 – Dakar 6 November 2012
Benoit Lebot UNDP Climate Change Advisor
- 1MillionBC
Cuisson 0.2 koe/d/cap
- 400 000BC
Feu & Chasse
0.4 koe/d/cap
- 5 000 BC
Agriculture,Elevage
1.2 koe/d/cap
1200 AC
Vent,Hydro,
Force Animale 2.6 koe/d/cap
1850 AC
RévolutionIndustrielle5 koe/d/cap
2 000 AC
Homme Moderne20 koe/d/cap
1900 2000
Population
X 4
1900 2000
Population Energie
X 4
X 16
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Oil
World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with
coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario of the IEA
Autres 41 ans
Pétrole
Réserve
Moyen Orient :63.6%
Milliardsde TEP Réserves prouvées
d’énergie dans le monde
So
urc
e :
AIE
/OC
DE
Charbon
Amérique dunord : 25.4%
Ex - URSS :22.5%
Chine :21.8%
Autres
218 ans
Réserve Conso. annuelle
Conso. annuelle
Autres
Ex - URSS :38.7%
Moyen Orient :33.9%
63 ans
GazRéserve Conso.
annuelle
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Les trois générations de consommation du pétrole
TVTBMLMChocs &
contre-chocs L’après pic
Source: ASPO 2004
9
Il y a 6 000 ans le Sahara était vert
Aujourd’hui c’est un désert
-36 m
Mer Méditerranée aujourd’hui
Source: GoogleEarth
Mer Méditerranée il y a 15 000 année
-5 °C par rapport à la température moyenne aujourd’hui
Source: France 2 Malaterre
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Atmosphère
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
1
2
1
3
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
1
Sans atmosphère, la température à la surface du
sol serait de -18°C
-18°C
Atmosphère
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
1
2
1
3
Avec atmosphère, la température à la surface du
sol est de +15°C
+15°C
Quels sont les gaz à effet de serre?
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Les 6 Principaux Gaz à Effet de Serre
Intégrés au UNFCCC (Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le Changement
Climatique)
• Dioxide de Carbone : CO2
• Méthane: CH4
• Protoxyde d’azote : N2O
• Hydrofluorocarbons: HFCs • Perfluorocarbons: PFCs
• Sulphur hexafluoride: SF6
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24
Res
pir
atio
n440
Ph
oto
synth
esis440
Res
pir
atio
n
260A
bso
rbtio
n
260 Rel
ease
70
Ab
sorb
tion
80
=
26
Em
issi
on
s In
du
stri
elle
s H
um
ain
es C
O2
6
Ch
ang
e U
sag
e d
es T
erre
s ~15
Acc
um
ula
tio
n N
ette
Vo
lcan
oes
Wea
ther
ing
0.3
0.7
Terre Océan
Incr
ease
Up
take
by
Pla
nts
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Le Cycle du Carbone :Sources & Puits Dioxide de Carbone
Avant l’ère industrielle, les sources de carbone étaient équilibréespar les puits (données en e in Gigatons of CO2 per year
Atmosphere
Source: IPCC (2007)
La couchede Gaz à Effet
de Serre s’épaissit
L’effet de serre: un phénomène naturel
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2
11
3
18%
1%
8%
14%
59%
World Green House Gas Emissions
CH4
N2OF Gas
CO2
From Combustion
CO2
From LUCF
Source: IPCC AR4, Synthesis Report (shares are for 2004)
Energy Supply25.9%
Transport13.1%
Residential & Commercial
Buildings7.9%
Industry19.4%
Agriculture13.4%
Forestry17.4%
Waste & wastewater2.8 %
Global GHG emissions per Sector
GHG Emissions
GHG Concentration
GHG Sinks (Sequestration)
2012 394 ppm
http://co2now.org/
450 ppm ~+2°C
32 Gtons CO2 /year
15 Gtons CO2 /year
30Source l’Union of Concerned Scientists (1) http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/recordtemp2005.html
1 2010 11 2001
2 2005 12 2008
2 1998 13 1997
4 2009 14 1990
5 2002 15 1995
6 2003 16 2000
7 2007 17 1991
8 2004 18 1987
9 2011 19 1988
10 2006 20 1994
Classement des 20 années les plus chaudes depuis 1880, par ordre décroissant de température
Evolution du Niveau des Océans
• 1990s: fastest recorded rise at 4mm per year
• Longer term: ≥ 1m per century very plausibleSource: IPCC (2007)
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Projection des Evolutions des concentration CO2
1800 2000 2100
CO2 (in ppm)
280367
970
540
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Evolution possible de la température moyenne sur terre
2000 2100
+5°C
+2°C?
Mer Méditerranée il y a 15 000 année
-5 °C par rapport à la température moyenne aujourd’hui
Source: France 2 Malaterre
2007 2050
Today World Average
South
4.2 tCO2eq/Cap
North16.1 tCO2eq/Cap
2050Target50%
Global Emissions
CO2/Cap/yearUNDP HDR Objective for 2050:• In the north, - 80% in emissions
•In the south, - 20% in emissions
2020
Pathway towards a 2°C Global Warming
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG =GHGTOE
TOEX
GDPGDP
X POPPOP
X
Greenhouse Gas
Emission=
Carbon ContainEnergy x Energy
Intensity xWealthx Population
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG =GHGTOE
TOEX
GDPGDP
X POPPOP
X
½In 2050
= ? x ? x 3 x 3/2
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG =GHGTOE
TOEX
GDPGDP
X POPPOP
X
1/2= x1/3 1/6 xby 2050
3%/year 4%/year
3 x 3/2
Prof. Kaya
(World Summit 1992)
GHG =GHGTOE
TOEX
GDPGDP
X POPPOP
X
1/2= x1/6 1/3 xby 2050
4%/year 3%/year
3 x 3/2
A pressing need for global GHG mitigation
Energie Durable pour Touswww.sustainableenergyforall.org
© The Energy Resource Institute
Sustainable Energy for AllEnergie Durable pour Tous
L’énergie transforme nos vies, nos économies & notre planète.
www.sustainableenergyforall.org
Energie Durable pour Tous
www.sustainableenergyforall.org
D’ici à 2030, 3 objectifs
1.Accès à l’énergie moderne pour tous
2.Doubler l’efficacité énergétique
3.Doubler la part des énergies renouvelables
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Renewable Energy in the World
RE supplied an estimated 17% of global final energy consumption
Top RE Countries in 2012
Germany continues to lead in Europe and to be in the forefront globally, remaining among the top users of many renewable technologies for power, heating, and transport.
China ended 2011 with more renewable power capacity than any other country, with an estimated 282 GW; one-quarter of this total (70 GW) was non-hydro.
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Renewables accounted for nearly half of the estimated 208 GW of new electric capacity installed in 2011
Renewable electric power capacity worldwide reached 1,360 GW (+8%) in 2011
Renewable energy comprised more than 25% of global power generation capacity
20.3% of global electricity was produced from renewable energy
Global Market Overview – Power Markets
48
RE used in form of electricity, hydrogen, biogas, liquid biofuels. Liquid biofuels provided 3% of global road transport fuel in 2011.
Electric transport is being tied directly with renewable energy through policy directives in many countries.
Johannesburg, South Africa introduced 25 ethanol buses into its public transportation fleet during 2011
Global Market Overview - Transport
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25GW of new hydropower was added in 2011, increasing capacity by nearly 3%, bringing installed capacity to 970GW
Globally hydropower generated 3,400TWh of electricity in 2011. China alone produced 663TWh followed by Brazil (450TWh)
In late 2011, Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania announced plans to build a 90MW hydropower plant, with financing expected from the World Bank and AfDB
South Africa is expected to have 1332MW of pumped storage facility by 2013-2014
Hydropower
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Solar Power
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Solar Power
30GW of new solar PV capacity came into being in 2011
460 MW of Concentrating Solar Power installed in 2011 bringing the total installed capacity to 1.760 MW
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Wind Power
In 2011, 40GW of wind power capacity was installed, increasing the total to 238GW.
Annual growth rate of cumulative wind power capacity between 2006-2010 averaged at 26%
Wind power accounted for 30% of the total new renewable energy capacity
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Wind Power
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Biomass EnergyBiomass energy accounted for over 10% of global primary energy supply in 2011
The present global demand for biomass is 53EJ, mainly used for heating, cooking and industrial applications
Liquid biofuels production grew rapidly at 17% for ethanol and 27% for biodiesel
Most sugar producing countries in Africa generate power and heat with bagasse-based combined heat and power plants. Grid connected CHP exists in Kenya, Mauritius, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe
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Geothermal Energy
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Geothermal Energy205 TWh (738PJ) of district heat and electricity was provided by geothermal resources in 2011
Heat output from geothermal sources grew at 100% p.a. from 2005-2010; reaching 489PJ in 2011
Geothermal power became more attractive due to flexibility offered by new technologies such as flash plants combined with binary bottoming cycles for increased efficiency
Geothermal Power has taken hold in East Africa’s Rift Valley. Drought in the region has increased interest on geothermal to reduce reliability on hydropower
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Industry Trends
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Industry Trends
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Industry TrendsRE industry saw continued growth in manufacturing,
sales and installationCost reductions (especially in PV and onshore wind)
contributed to growthChanging policy landscape in many countries industry
uncertainties, declining policy support, international financial crisis and barriers to trade
Worldwide jobs in renewable energy industries exceeded 5 million in 2011; clustered primarily in bioenergy and solar industries
Green power markets are emerging in South Africa, with at least one company providing green power to retail customers in South Africa
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Investment Flows
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Investment FlowsTotal global investment in RE jumped in 2011to a record of $257 billion , up 17% from 2010 (15 % for Asia Oceania region).
This is 6 times the level of investment in 2004 and 94% more than the total investment in RE in 2007.
Despite the rise in investment, the rate of growth of investment was below the 37% rise in investment from 2009 to 2010.
Total investment in the RE sector in the Middle East and Africa combined was USD 4.9 Billion.
Investment Flows The top 5 countries for total investment in 2011: China, USA, Germany, Italy and India.
RE Investment in China went up by 17% in 2011Investment in RE in USA made a significant leap of 57% in 2011.
Investment in Germany (excluding R&D) dipped 12% from the 2010 levels
Investment in RE in India went up by 62% in 2011relative share of total global investment of developing countries slip back :USD 89 billion of new investment in 2011 in developing
countries USD 168 billion in developed countries
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Policy Landscape
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Policy Landscape
Targets in at least 118 countries up from the 96 reported in previous year; more than half are developing countries
Some setbacks resulting from a lack of long-term policy certainty and stability in many countries
South Africa introduced a new 20 year plan calling for renewables to account for 42% of all new capacity installed up to 2030
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Policy LandscapeRenewable power generation policies remain the most
common type of support policy, in particular Feed-in-tariffs (FIT) and renewable portfolio standards (RPS)
FIT policies were in place in at least 65 countries and 27 states worldwide by early 2012.
Policies to promote renewable heating and cooling expanded.
Almost two-thirds of the world’s largest cities had adopted climate change action plans by the end of 2011, with more than half of them planning to increase their uptake of renewable energy.
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2.6 billion people still employed traditional cookstoves and open fires for heating and cooking in 2011
UN Secretary General’s goal: Global action to achieve universal access to modern energy services by 2030
In order to achieve universal access for all, current global investments on energy access of annual 9 billion USD need to be increased to 48 billion USD
Lower prices of renewable energy technology is allowing manufacturers to diversify into emerging markets
Large numbers of actors and programmes, with limited coordination, makes impact assessment and data collection a big challenge
Energy Access
Electricity Access by Region
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Rural Renewable Energy in Africa
Africa : lowest rates of access to modern energy servicesMore than 650 million people rely on using traditional
biomass for cookingGhana is the frontrunner with an electrification rate of
72% and aims for universal energy access by 2020Most renewable energy projects being implemented in
Africa are off-grid(though grid connected renewable energy necessary to attract investment)
550,000 improved cookstoves have been disseminated in Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal and Uganda since 2009
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Enabling Framework
Right policy framework
Increased productivity &
growth
Creation of jobs
Improved public health
Enhanced energy
security, more stable climate
Kombikraftwerk: almost 100 % verified in real time on one year
Possible potential to add: DSM (kW and kWh), Hydro, offshore wind, solid biomass, geothermal power, ocean energy
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Figure 1: Traditional Electric Landscape (XX Century)
LargePower Plants
TransmissionGrid
DistributionGrid
Passive & captive
consumersLimited
Exchanges Central Dispatching
Regulatory Framework
Figure 2: New & Desirable Electrical Landscape (XXI Century)
LargePower Plants
Transmission& Balancing Grid
Harvesting, Mutualisation&Distributing
Grid
Eco-Consumers (Energy Efficient end-
use)
Expanded Exchanges
Central Dispatching +
Forecasting, control-command & distributed intelligence,
RESe production supervision
Local clusters Coupling Offer & Demand: « Virtual Grids »
RE IPPs
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