energy and economic update for louisiana and the … - energy and...4 overview • the inaugural...
TRANSCRIPT
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Kinetica Partners, LLC2018 Shipper’s MeetingLake Charles, LA. October 18, 2018
Energy and Economic Update for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast Region
Gregory B. Upton Jr., Ph.D.Louisiana State UniversityCenter for Energy Studies
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2© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Introduction
Up-Stream Oil and Gas Outlook
Industrial Outlook
Employment Outlook
Mid-Stream Investments
Exports
Conclusions
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3© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Introduction
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Gulf Coast Energy Outlook
4© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Overview
• The inaugural Gulf Coast Energy Outlook seeks to provide a broad overview of the current status of trends guiding energy markets with an emphasis on the Gulf Coast Region.
• The research initiative is a collaborative effort of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies and E.J. Ourso College of Businessand focuses on the energy sector of the gulf Coast Region’s economy.
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5© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Up-Stream Oil and Gas Outlook
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Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
Current Natural Gas Prices and Near-Term Outlook
Natural gas prices were forecasted to stay below $3.55 per MMBtu in 2017 and are projected to stay under $3.75 in 2018.
Actual 2017 prices ranged from $2.82 to $3.30Actual 2018 prices have ranged from $2.67 to 3.87
6© LSU Center for Energy Studies
$4.39
$2.63 $2.52
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent
EIA$3.55
EIA$3.73
WorldBank$3.00
WorldBank$3.50
WellsFargo$3.26
WellsFargo$3.41Deloitte
$3.25
2017 2018
Bloomberg$3.17
Bloomberg$3.14
IMF$3.00
IMF$3.10
Price Outlook
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Natural Gas Futures Prices
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
7© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Price Outlook
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Source: Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy.
Current Crude Oil Prices and Near-Term OutlookMost crude oil price projections for 2017 were around $55 per barrel. Prices are
expected to increase in 2018, but remain below $75 per barrel.Actual 2017 prices ranged from $45 to $58 per barrel.Actual 2018 prices ranged from $62 to $71 per barrel.
8© LSU Center for Energy Studies
$93.26
$48.69 $43.14
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
2014 2015 2016
Perc
ent
GoldmanSachs, Q1:
$55.00
GoldmanSachs, Q2:
$57.50
GoldmanSachs$55.00
2017 2018
Deloitte$55.00
EIA$52.50
Jeffries$57.00
Bank ofAmerica$59.00
StreetConsensus
$59.00
RaymondJames$75.00
MorganStanley$64.00
MorganStanley$51.00
EIA$55.20
Price Outlook
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Natural Gas Futures Prices
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
9© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Price Outlook
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Gulf Coast Natural Gas Production Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
10© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Unconventional On-Shore Natural Gas Oil Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
11© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Off-Shore Natural Gas Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
12© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Conventional On-Shore Natural Gas Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
13© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Gulf Coast Crude Oil Production Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
14© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Unconventional On-Shore Crude Oil Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
15© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Off-Shore Crude Oil Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
16© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Conventional On-Shore Crude Oil Forecast
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
17© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Wells Completed - 2013
18© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Wells Completed - 2014
19© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Wells Completed - 2015
20© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Wells Completed - 2016
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Production Outlook
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Wells Completed - 2017
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Production Outlook
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Wells Completed – To date: 2018
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Production Outlook
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Forecast Performance
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
24© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Forecast Performance
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
25© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Forecast Performance
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
26© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Forecast Performance
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
27© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Production Outlook
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Industrial Outlook
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Industrial Outlook
29© LSU Center for Energy Studies
• There is a symbiotic relationship between natural gas prices and Louisiana’s energy-intensive manufacturing base. Louisiana manufacturing relies heavily on natural gas for heat, steam, power generation and most importantly, feedstock purposes. Louisiana’s chemical industry is particularly reliant upon natural gas and natural gas liquids since both are used to produce a wide range of goods.1
• Abundant and inexpensive natural gas along side the U.S. increase in oil production has led to significant industrial investments.
• Significant investments in crude oil transport, including pipeline reversals, expansions, and additions, alongside the lifting of the crude oil export ban can create an environment that allows for the Gulf Coast to become the epicenter for hydrocarbon trading.2
Industrial Outlook
1. David E. Dismukes (2013). Unconventional Resources and Louisiana’s Manufacturing Development Renaissance. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies and author’s updates.
2. Upton (2016). Crude Oil Exports and the Louisiana Economy. A discussion of the U.S. policy of restricting crude oil exports and its implications for Louisiana. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies.
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Industrial Renaissance
WTI and Brent Spot Prices
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
30© LSU Center for Energy StudiesSource: EIA.
Oil and gas prices diverge!
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Industrial Renaissance
WTI and Brent Spot Prices
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
31© LSU Center for Energy StudiesSource: EIA.
Futures market notpredicting fast convergence!
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Industrial Renaissance
Natural Gas In Manufacturing
New Natural Gas End Uses & Fuel Diversity Concerns
32© LSU Center for Energy StudiesSource: Dismukes, 2013. Unconventional Resources and Louisiana’s Manufacturing Development Renaissance.
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To date, Louisiana has seen approximately $151.7 billion in actual and projected capital investment, whereas Texas captures $136.1 billion in actual and projected Gulf Cost
chemical industry capital investment.
Source: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies.
Gulf of Mexico region: energy manufacturing capital expenditures (by state).
5.0 Manufacturing Renaissance
33
Industrial outlook
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Louisiana energy manufacturing total capital expenditures by sector.
In Louisiana, project announcements are heavily concentrated in LNG Export.
34© LSU Center for Energy StudiesSource: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies.
Industrial outlook
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Louisiana projected capital expenditures, then and now
Capital expenditures to date have exceeded early estimates. Projected expenditures for Louisiana 2012 were estimated to be $53 billion (through 2017); however actual
expenditures are closer to $67 billion, a difference of almost 30 percent.
35© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Billio
n $
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172012 Estimate Current Estimate
Source: David E. Dismukes (2013). Unconventional Resources and Louisiana’s Manufacturing Development Renaissance. Baton Rouge, LA: Louisiana State University, Center for Energy Studies and author’s updates.
Development
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36© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Employment Outlook
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37© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Key Industries• Oil and Gas
• NAICS 211: Oil and Gas Extraction• NAICS 213: Support Activities for Mining
• Refinery and Chemical Manufacturing• NAICS 324: Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing
(refineries)• NAICS 325: Chemical Manufacturing
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Louisiana oil and gas employment forecast
38© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Employment
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Texas oil and gas employment forecast
39© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Employment
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Louisiana refinery and chemical sector employment forecast
40© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Employment
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Texas refinery and chemical sector employment forecast
41© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Employment
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42© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
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Foreign/Domestic Price Differentials
43© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
Agerton, Mark and Upton, Gregory, Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban? (March 10, 2017). USAEE Working Paper No. 17-307. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2942989
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Price Differentials Within the U.S.
44© LSU Center for Energy StudiesAgerton, Mark and Upton, Gregory, Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban? (March 10, 2017). USAEE Working Paper No. 17-307. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2942989
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
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Price Differentials and Shipping Constraints
45© LSU Center for Energy StudiesAgerton, Mark and Upton, Gregory, Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban? (March 10, 2017). USAEE Working Paper No. 17-307. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2942989
Reversal of Seaway Pipeline
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
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Price Differentials and Shipping Constraints
46© LSU Center for Energy StudiesAgerton, Mark and Upton, Gregory, Decomposing Crude Price Differentials: Domestic Shipping Constraints or the Crude Oil Export Ban? (March 10, 2017). USAEE Working Paper No. 17-307. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2942989
Reversal of Seaway Pipeline
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
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North American Natural Gas Pipeline Investments
47© LSU Center for Energy StudiesSource: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
• Announced: 25
• Early Development: 33
• Advanced Development: 39
• Construction: 31
• Total: 128 projects
Project cost range from ~$18M to $5.2B.
Just for projects with listed costs (which is 59/128~46%), the total estimated cost is $34B.
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Natural Gas Price Premium to HH
48© LSU Center for Energy StudiesPreliminary joint work with Mark Agerton (UC Davis)
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
During the peak of the natural gas
boom, natural gas wellhead prices in
west Texas were
discounted heavily to
Henry Hub.
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Natural Gas Price Premium to HH
49© LSU Center for Energy StudiesPreliminary joint work with Mark Agerton (UC Davis)
Mid-Stream Infrastructure
Recently, well head price
differentials have stabilized
and most areas counties
are experiencing
wellhead prices similar to Henry Hub.
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50© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Export Economy
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U.S. Net Imports
51© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Exports
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U.S. Net Imports
52© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Exports
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LNG Applications
53© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Exports
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54© LSU Center for Energy Studies
Conclusions
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Conclusions
55© LSU Center for Energy Studies
• U.S. and Gulf Coast domestic crude oil and natural gas production should continue to be strong.
• The nation and region will build upon existing productivity gains and higher overall prices will continue to facilitate more drilling activity.
• This drilling activity may start to diversify, in terms of location, over the upcoming few years, but not enough to knock the Permian basin off its perch as being the premier U.S. unconventional basin.
• The price outlook (crude oil, natural gas) is a little more complicated than last year.
• Last year the main question was the resilience of shale production to the price drop.
• But now, we have seen crude prices rise with natural gas prices remaining steady.
• Futures models predict that crude prices will decline, but not back in tandem with natural gas.
Conclusions
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Conclusions
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• The 2019 GCEO petrochemical industry outlook is flat.
• The capacity utilization outlook for existing and recent investments will likely not increase in any measurable fashion given a number of global headwinds that include: (a) a slow-down in Asian demand; (b) increased dollar valuations; and (c) continued trade policy uncertainties.
• The GCEO does not anticipate any chemical industry or LNG project cancellations, but it is not implausible to see that many currently-announced projects move out their anticipated project commercial operation dates in order to account for the current global market and geo-political uncertainties.
• The 2019 GCEO sees a continued positive, yet limited growth outlook for U.S. refining. Refineries will benefit from continued growth of U.S. crude oil supplies and the geographic diversity of those supplies. The sector will also benefit from continued pipeline infrastructure moving into and within the region.
Conclusions
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Conclusions
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• Thus, on an overall basis, the GCEO anticipates, on average, that the region will build upon its economic gains of the last year, although those gains will likely be slower due to concerns about economic growth and several geopolitical tensions that create uncertainties that are not conducive for capital formation and growth in this industry.
• Also, there is trepidation about the late cycle stimulus and the potential for a correction in coming years.
• The region will continue to become a more integrated part of the overall world energy market and will likely place itself in a favorable position for future growth once some of these uncertainties start to evaporate.
Conclusions
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