Energy & Climate SecuritySherri Goodman Senior Vice President & General Counsel, CNA Executive Director, CNA Military Advisory Board

17 November 2009

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• “What adverse conditions are climate changes likely to produce around the world?”

• “What are the ways in which these conditions may affectAmerica’s national security interests?”

• “What actions should the nation take to address the national security consequences of climate change?”

Climate Change as a National Security Risk

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GEN Gordon Sullivan, USA, RetChief of Staff, US Army

ADM Skip Bowman, USN, RetDirector, Navy Nuclear Power

Gen Charles Boyd, USAF, RetDeputy Commander, EUCOM

Lt Gen Larry Farrell Jr., USAF, RetChief Planner, HQ USAF

VADM Paul Gaffney II, USN, RetONR and NDU

GEN Paul Kern, USA, RetCommander, Army Materiel

Gen Ronald Keys, USAF, RetCommander, Air Combat

ADM T. Joseph Lopez, USN, RetCommander, U.S. Navy Europe

Gen Robert Magnus, USMC, RetAssistant Commandant, USMC

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CNA Military Advisory Board

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CNA Military Advisory Board

VADM Dennis McGinn, USN, RetDeputy CNO

ADM John Nathman, USN, RetCommander, Fleet Forces

RADM David Oliver Jr., USN, RetPrincipal Deputy, Navy Acq Exec

ADM Don Pilling, USN, RetVice Chief, US Navy

ADM Joseph W. Prueher, USN, RetCommander, PACOM; China Amb

VADM Richard H. Truly, USN, RetNASA Administrator; Astronaut

Gen Chuck Wald, USAF, RetDeputy Commander, EUCOM

Gen Tony Zinni, USMC, RetCommander, CENTCOM

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MAB Perspective on Scientific Debate

We never have 100% certainty.

If you wait until you have 100% certainty, something bad is going to happen

on the battlefield.

That’s something we know.

— GEN Sullivan

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Food

Threats to Natural & Human SystemsCase in Point:

DarfurThreats

Water

Health Weather

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Arctic is Rapidly Melting

Arctic Ice Cap21 Sep 2005

Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

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Arctic is Rapidly Melting

Arctic Ice Cap14 Sep 2007

Source: NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center

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Almost 40 percent of Asia’s 4 billion people live within 45 miles of the coast

Inundation of coastal areas, with loss of settled areas and agricultural land

Threats to water, and spread of infectious disease will stress the region

Regional Impacts: Asia

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Climate Change Security Impacts in China

• Factor in Increased Rural-to-Urban Migration • Pressure on Food Security • Reduction of Water Supply

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Himalayan glacial melt

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Consequences for the security of Colombia• Increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters• Creation of conditions that facilitate illegal activities• Exacerbation of human displacement

– Due to natural disasters and economic shocks• Increased pressure on military operations and resources

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Colombia’s “water tower” is under significant pressure

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Flooding is of particular concern to Colombia & the military

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Impacts: Decreased rainfall, increased drought

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Climate Change: A Threat Multiplier…for Our Troops

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Impacts on military systems

Climate change - whether hotter,

drier, or wetter - will add stressto our weapons systems

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Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels

Diego Garcia: Major

logistics hub for U.S. and

Britain

Average Elevation:

4 Feet

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Bases Threatened by Rising Sea Levels

Hurricane Ivan2004:

Windspeedsgreater than

100 mph

Closed Naval Air Station Pensacola

for nearly a year

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Climate Change is a Threat Multiplier

• Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world

• Projected climate change will add to tensions even in stable regions of the world

• Climate change, national security, and energy dependence are a related set of global challenges

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Energy as a National Security Risk

• What are the national security threats associated with energy?

• What is an appropriate role for DoD in addressing these threats?

Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security

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America’s energy posture constitutes aserious and urgent threat to national security—militarily, diplomatically and economically

U.S. Energy Posture is a Threat

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U.S. Oil Dependence Undermines National Security

• Weakens international leverage

• Cripples foreign policy• Jeopardizes military• Exacts huge price tag in

dollars and lives• Entangles US with hostile

regimes• Undermines economic

stability

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/11/S-3_Viking_in-flight_refueling.jpg&imgrefurl=http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:S-3_Viking_in-flight_refueling.jpg&usg=__TkF6knWgQJK4LIZsLcKIYG_vo7A=&h=1500&w=2100&sz=622&hl=en&start=36&um=1&tbnid=LqqNw_8yfysiYM:&tbnh=107&tbnw=150&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dnavy%2Brefueling%26ndsp%3D18%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:*:IE-SearchBox%26rlz%3D1I7DMUS_en%26sa%3DN%26start%3D18%26um%3D1

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/USAF_F-16A_F-15C_F-15E_Desert_Storm_edit2.jpg

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Continuing energy business-as-usual creates an unacceptably high threat levelfrom a series of converging risks

ClimateChange

EnergyDependence

National &HomelandSecurity

Interrelated Set of Challenges

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• Market for fossil fuels shaped by finite supplies, increasing demand and rising costs

• Conflict over fuel resources

• Destabilization driven by ongoing climate change

Converging Risks

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Dependence on oil: Drives instability

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Dependence on oil: Drives instability

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Dependence on oil: Mission impacts

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Critical National Security Missions Depend on a Fragile Grid

• Electrical grid is:– Outdated– Fragile– Overtaxed– A threat to military

capability

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http://www.doedigitalarchive.doe.gov/ImageDetailView.cfm?ImageID=2016858&page=search&pageid=thumb

Achieving energy security in a carbon-constrained world is possible, and requires concerted leadership and continuous commitment

Finding

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http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0gm0d580WP5hn/610x.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.daylife.com/photo/0gm0d580WP5hn&usg=__Jeo1VI60DZwGdAweCEOnJDptxNg=&h=406&w=610&sz=31&hl=en&start=24&sig2=zsJgOEfzGJtVE2dmand-hw&um=1&tbnid=l6iC8QOZjnWZpM:&tbnh=91&tbnw=136&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dus%2Bmilitary%2Bwind%26ndsp%3D18%26hl%3Den%26rls%3Dcom.microsoft:en-us:IE-SearchBox%26rlz%3D1I7DKUS%26sa%3DN%26start%3D18%26um%3D1&ei=zt_PSaKrGtrVlQewmNntCQ

DoD can contribute to national solutions as

a technologicalinnovator and early adopter

Finding

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Priority Recommendation

Energy security and climate change goals should be clearly and fully integrated into our national security and military planningprocesses

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A Roadmap for Energy Security

1. Integrate energy & climate in the planning processes2. Design & deploy systems to the field to reduce the

burden of inefficient energy usage3. Know your Carbon Bootprint4. Transform installations through aggressive pursuit of:

• Energy efficiency• Smart grid technologies• Electrification of non-tactical vehicle fleet

5. Expand distributed & renewable energy generation6. Invest in long-term shift to low-carbon liquid fuels

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Silver Buckshot

While there may not be a “silver bullet” …

there are a lot of “silver buckshot”technologies which we can use

to scale up and create an

economically viable portfolio of energy choices.

— VADM McGinn (Ret)

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Military Advisory Board

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Let’s Meet the Climate Change and Energy Challenges Now: We Owe It to Them

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Where to Find CNA MAB Reports

• SecurityAndClimate.cna.org

• PoweringAmericasDefense.org

Energy & Climate SecuritySherri Goodman Senior Vice President & General Counsel, CNA Executive Director, CNA Military Advisory Board

17 November 2009

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Europe will be focused on its own borders. There is potential for fracturing some very

strong alliances based on migrations and

the lack of control over borders.— ADM Pilling

Regional Impacts: Europe

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Climate change will facilitate:• weakened governance• economic collapse• human migrations• potential conflicts

Stability operations and humanitarian missions

could increase for U.S.

Regional Impacts: Africa

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Water security will be threatened –two-thirds of the Arab world already depends on water sources external to their borders

Loss of food and water security will increase pressure to emigrate across borders

Regional Impacts: Middle East

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Almost 40 percent of Asia’s

4 billion people live within 45 miles of the coast

Inundation of coastal areas, with loss of settled areas and agricultural land

Threats to water, and spread of infectious disease will stress the region

Regional Impacts: Asia

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Coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise coupled with more intense hurricanes

Loss of glaciers will strain water supply in several areas, such as Peru and Colombia

Migration into the U.S. will likely increase

Regional Impacts: Western Hemisphere