energy crisis management: the brazilian successful experiences cyro vicente boccuzzi, ceo of ecoee...
TRANSCRIPT
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Energy Crisis Management: the Brazilian Successful Experiences
Cyro Vicente Boccuzzi, CEO of ECOEE – Efficient Energy
and Executive Director of Andrade & Canellas Consulting
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• Introduction to the Brazilian Electric Sector
• The Energy Crisis Management in 2001
– Action Plan
• Electric Sector Model Revitalization
• New Model for the Electric Sector
• Final Comments
OUTLINE
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Introduction to the Brazilian Electric Sector
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1996-1997
RE-SEB Project1998-2000
Model Implementation
startup 2001
Energy Supply Crisis
2002
The Model “Revitalization” 2003
New Model conceptual
Basis2004/2005
New Model Regulation“Modelo Institucional
do Setor Elétrico”
Presidential Decrees
Brief Brazilian Electric Sector Regulation History
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Area: 8,5 million km2
Population: 184 million inhab.
GDP: US$ 1,368 Trillion
GDP per capita: US$ 7,227
Electricity Generation: 437.6 TWh / year
Electricity Consumption: 435.6 TWh / year
Consumption per capita: 2.368 kWh / year
Brasil
General Information
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Electric Sector Characteristics
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Large capacity dams, in 7 basins with different hydrologic regimes
Generations in the different basins are linked through huge transmission lines, in some cases longer than 1,000 km
There were 91 hydroelectric plants and more than 69,000 Km of transmission lines (Dec.2000)
These features make the Brazilian system one of the world’s biggest inter-linked systems
I NT
ER
LIG
AÇ
ÃO
NO
RT
E-S
UL
Electric Sector Characteristics
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2001 Crisis
Immediate cause: extremely unfavorable hydrology in 2001
– San Francisco river: worst year since 1930
– Grande River: 4th worst wet period since 1930
Other causes: pace of implementation of the new model,
regulatory issues, miscoordination
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Growth Comparison: Consumption x Generation
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Reservoirs LevelsSoutheast + Center West
7679
85 89 87 88 8476
6863 60
666969
7983 82 80
7668
6053
4843 46
575762
71 7065
6054
4537
26
18
45
59 5954
4740
32
222933,5 35,6 33,1 29,7
202929 32
2331
10%
31,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
jan fev mar abr mai jun jul ago set out nov dez jan1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
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Energy Crisis Management
Energy Generation Situation By Then• Minimum requirement of more than 3.000 MW/year
• Hydro Plants were responsible for 95% of the overall generation.• Very low reservoirs levels.
• Thermal Expansion Plan not implemented due to weak market incentives.•Transmission Insufficient to handle all the needs – investments planned not
implemented in time.
Temporary Measures
Resolutions Decrees
• Energy Crisis Management Committee was created Consumption Reduction Emergency Program and Electric Energy Strategic Emergency
Program were implemented
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The Electric Energy Crisis Management Committee
Action Plan
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Action Plan
At the crisis onset, a presidential decision created a top level committee: The Electric Energy Crisis Management Committee (CGE)
This Committee proposed an Plan Action based on five points
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1) Emergency Program for the Energy Consumption Reduction
2) Structural program to increase the energy supply
3) Emergency program to temporarily increase the energy supply
4) Energy Efficiency
5) Electric Sector Model Revitalization
Action Plan
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Main Objectives
To avoid the imposition of unnecessary sacrifices on the population To maintain minimum safety levels in the reservoirs
These objectives were achieved due to extraordinary popular support for the plan
1) Emergency Program for the Energy Consumption Reduction
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• Mandatory average consumption reduction for almost 40 million units connected in the Southeast and Northeast Regions, involving over 140 million people (80% of total country population)
• Goals for each consumer were established based on past 3 months consumption
• Reduction goals were about 20% and specific guidelines were defined for specific sectors and special situations
• The responsibility for reduction was transferred from the Utilities to the clients and this was implemented in such a way to promote more efficient energy usage habits
• New connections were suspended in the beginning of the Plan implementation
• Electric Companies improved their Energy Efficiency Programs (which were already obligation before the crisis) and started distributing electronic bulbs for low income houses, helping the families to meet the goals
Rationing Law Basic Guidelines
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Low Voltage Medium and High Voltages < 2,5 MW
Medium and High Voltages > 2,5 MW
Consum. < goal
Bonus Bonus kWh credit
Consum. > goal
Exceeding consumption by $ MAE – spot prices
Exceeding consumption by $ MAE – spot prices
Exceeding consumption by $ MAE – spot prices
Compensation
Bilateral Trans. (same econ group / same prod proccess)
Bilateral Trans. Bilateral Trans. / auction certificates
Service Cut
1 day for each 3% above goal
1 day for each 3% above goal
1 day for each 3% above goal
Rationing Law Basic Guidelines
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• The program started in June with no deadline to be suspended• The program was at the same time simple and complex, rigid
and flexible – as time passed, it managed to handle exceptions in a wise way, changing rules for specific situations – 70 resolutions plus 186 decisions
• The basis were simple and visible – limit consumption, teach how to reduce, give price signals
• The results were measured everyday by the system load and reservoirs levels
• If the plan had no effect, there were a Plan B that included holidays on Fridays or selective shifts load shedding
Successful Rationing Implementation
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For the clients – a change of habits
• There was a positive side of the crisis: as each consumer were responsible for it's own usage reduction, common people learned about how to use better their appliances and followed up the bills and the numbers;
• People were surprised about how the monthly bills reflected the past inefficient use of electricity - reduction was kept after rationing;
• General Awareness about energy and water being increasingly
scarce and more expensive - awareness about related environment issues
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Rationing Program Operational Impact for Dist Cos.
• New Rules issued everyday - must be immediately implemented
• Many Companies implemented call centers fully devoted to the Rationing Program
• Dramatic increase in Call Center and walk in facilities volume
• Increase in requests for new meter installations
• Large number of individual goals and bills revisions requests
• Disconnections and reconnections for those that exceed quota
• Large media coverage – Newspapers FrontPage everyday
• Legal constraints were addressed and didn't impact implementation
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Energy Rationing: Jun-Dec 2001 (average MW)NORTH
Load Reduction overJul/Aug/Sep 2000
Load Reduction oversame period 2000
Load Reduction over initial forecast for 2001
19.0%
18.3%
24.6%
SOUTHEAST/MID-WEST
Load Reduction overMay/Jun/Jul 2000
Load Reduction oversame period 2000
Load Reduction over initial forecast for 2001
21.1%
25.3%
18.2%
NORTHEAST
Load Reduction overMay/Jun/Jul 2000
Load Reduction oversame period 2000
Load Reduction over initial forecast for 2001
16.4%
20.2%
24.2%
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Total generation capacity of the inter-linked system in Feb 2002 was 74,000 MW, for an estimated peak demand of:
• before the crisis 56,000 MW • after the crisis 44,000 MW
So, Brazilian costumers in general succeeded to significantly improve the energy usage efficiency in a particular way !
Peak Load was also Significantly Reduced with Efficiency
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Load Evolution (1994-2001)
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
JAN FEV MAR ABR MAI JUN JUL AGO SET OUT NOV DEZ Méd.
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
23,198
25,848
25,560
23,961
23,112
22,086
21,252
20,096
Southeast/Mid-West Average MW
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• Load and consumption reduction were taken back to 1997 patterns and just returned to 2001 levels in 2006;
• The crisis opened discussion for other renewable energy sources implementation like biomass, wind, self production, etc. and investments in distributed generation aiming at energy matrix diversification;
• The crisis opened the free negotiation market for large consumers
Rationing Program Residual Impact
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1.Emergency Program for the energy consumption reduction
2.Structural program to increase the energy supply
3.Emergency program to temporarily increase the energy supply
4.Energy Efficiency
5.Electric Sector Model Revitalization
Action Plan
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Structural program to increase the energy supply till 2003
SUPPLY Planned INCREASE of
• 7700 MW in New Hydro power plants• 13300 MW in thermal power plants• Almost 3000 MW in self production, biomass, wind, small hydro
power plants• 6200 km of new transmission lines• 5200 MVA in substations capacity• Investments around R$ 43,4 Billion, being 75% private and 25%
public
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1)Emergency Program for the energy consumption reduction
2) Structural program to increase the energy supply
3) Emergency program to temporarily increase the energy supply
4) Energy Efficiency
5) Electric Sector Model Revitalization
Action Plan
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EMERGENCY ELECTRIC ENERGY SUPPLY FOR 2002-2003
Estimateddemand for
2002/03 Structural Supply
Program 2001/03
Assumptionsfor hydrology Emergency
Supply Needs2002/03
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Emergency Supply Guidelines
Additional energy supply, on a temporary basis, to work as an “insurance” for the consumer
A public energy trader (SPC) - (Brazilian Electric Energy Commercial Company-CBEE), was set up to:
• Buy energy from independent producers• Lease or buy generation equipment • Buy rights to consume from larger consumers
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Contracting Emergency Generation
Implemented in 5 months 117 proposals received (>4,000 MW)
2,100 MW selected 1,500 MW NE 600 MW SE
average price: 290 R$/MWh 100 R$/MWh fixed price 190 R$/MWh variable price
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1)Emergency Program for the energy consumption reduction
2) Structural program to increase the energy supply
3) Emergency program to temporarily increase the energy supply
4) Energy Efficiency
5) Electric Sector Model Revitalization
Action Plan
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Approval of Law Nº 10,295, on the National Policy for Rational
Energy Use and Conservation
Assistance Program for Micro, Small and Medium Companies
Regulatory Decree: Creation of Managing Committee for
Indicators and Levels of Energy Efficiency (CGIEE)
Energy Efficiency
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1)Emergency Program for the energy consumption reduction
2) Structural program to increase the energy supply
3) Emergency program to temporarily increase the energy supply
4) Energy Efficiency
5) Electric Sector Model Revitalization
Action Plan
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Created by a GCE Resolution
Mission:– Correct inadequacies and propose improvements in the
power sector model.– Preserve model's fundamentals:
• Competition in generation and retailing• Based on Private investments• Independent regulatory body to ensure adequate
balance between utilities and consumers and high quality of services
Sector Revitalization Committee
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Prices in the spot market are based on a computational model hydro generators do not manage all of their own risk
MAE (wholesale market) functions are mostly administrative (accounting and settlement)
Prices in the spot market are very volatile due to hydrological conditions barrier to the entrance of merchant plants long-term bilateral contracts required load’s willingness to contract drives system expansion
Contracts require physical backing
the desired supply reliability is achieved only when 100% of load is contracted
Power Sector Model in Brazil (1 of 2)
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There were (almost) no free consumer at that time
Regulatory Agency used to set limits (Normative Value - VN) on the pass-through of generation prices to captive consumers
Difficulties:
– no external price reference for VN in Brazil
– there were multiples VNs (implicit subsidies for specific types of energy)
Existence of public generation companies when Initial Contracts start to phase-out
potential for unbalanced competition (e.g. public companies could have taken an aggressive commercialization strategy by “mixing” new energy with existing hydro energy which has already been amortized)
Power Sector Model in Brazil (2 of 2)
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Signed on Dec. 18th, 2001
Solved deadlock and avoided breaking of announced
investments
Contributed to prevent repetition of events in the near
future
Avoided financial hardship for generators and distributors alike
General Agreement
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A. Resume market operation
B. Reinforce market-based mechanisms
C. Ensure adequate expansion of supply
D. Monitor supply reliability
E. Improve interface between free market and regulated
segments
F. Stimulate fair competition
G. Balance realistic tariffs and consumer benefits
H. Improve functioning of institutional agents
Revitalization objectives
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G&D Agreement
MAE governance
Improve spot price calculation (dispatch model
parameters + risk aversion factor)
A. Resume Market Operation
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Introduce price bids for short-term market
Prevent potential market power from government-owned
generation (discussed next)
Stimulate free consumers
B. Reinforce market-based mechanisms
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Proposal for Government-owned generation
All energy belonging to these companies will be contracted through public auctions Additional dividends earned by the Federal Government will be used to finance emergency plants, natural gas subsidy, etc.
Transparency Interests of shareholders (both Government and minority shareholders) and consumers are protected
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C. Ensure adequate supply expansion
Revise Assured Energies
Reinforce minimum bilateral contract requirements
Create generation reserve
Stimulate peaking capacity expansion
Stimulate energy conservation
Quicker environmental licensing procedures
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D. Monitor supply reliability
Establish “early warning” procedures with clear
responsibilities
Ministry of Mining and Energy to supervise long-term
equilibrium between supply and demand
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E. Improve market/regulated sector interface
Unify VN values
Improve transmission expansion planning methodology
Increase the signals embedded in transmission tariffs for different locations
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F. Stimulate fair competition
Proceed with unbundling
Stricter limits for cross-ownership and self-dealing
Separate tariffs for distribution (“wires business”)
Improve tariff revision procedures
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G. Realistic tariffs and consumer benefits
Universal access for electricity
Improve mechanisms for alternative energy sources funding
Subsidize gas transportation for PPT (Thermal Priority
Program) power plants
Eliminate cross subsidies
Special tariffs for low income consumers
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H. Improve functioning of institutions
MME (Ministry of Mining and Energy) Reorganize
ONS (National System Operator) Governance of ONS Improve ONS Grid Procedures Complete ONS dispatch software
MAE (Whole Sale Market) Improve MAE rules Improve definition of sub-markets Improve Energy Reallocation Mechanism - MRE
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General Consequences of theProposed Measures
Reinforcement of model’s fundamentals and market mechanisms
Higher government intervention at the regulatory level, not as entrepreneur Rights of private investors were preserved
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Main Principles:• Supply Security• Lower Tariffs • Social Inclusion
Assumptions:• Minimize risks; • Preserve functions and institutions, improving governance;• Improve generation expansion and the integrated management, aiming at supply security increasing;• Diversify the energy matrix, considering the complimentary character of different sources;• Respect the existing contracts
New Electric Sector Institutional Model
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Planning and Supply Monitoring
Integrated Resources Planning
System Expansion Planning
Technical and Economic Viability Studies
Environment and Social Viability studies
Energy Ministry – MMEEnergy Ministry – MME
Supply evaluation
Performance Monitoring
Expansion Construction Monitoring
Social and Environmental follow up
Energetic Planning Enterprise - EPE
Electric System Monitoring Committee - CMSE
New Electric Sector Institutional Model
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Freely negotiated or bid prices
Generation(competitive market)
Regulated Market(ACR)
Free Market (ACL)
Prices resulting from Bids
Distribution Co´sFree Clients
Brokers
Two Energy Contracting Markets:• Regulated Market (ACR) – Distribution Companies• Free Market (ACL) – Free Clients and self- producers
““Efficiency Metabolism”Efficiency Metabolism”
Self-producers
New Electric Sector Institutional Model
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Contracting by Energy typeThe “new” and the “old” energy
Existing Energy
Contracting by Bids
Periodic Bid at CCEE for 3 to 15 years contracts
Initial contracts – 8 years
Deliver in the following year (A-1)
Large auction in Dec 2004 – many (A-1)
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Existing Energy
Contracting by Bids
New Energy
Price Cap (R$/MWh) for plants listed by EPE
Winner will be the lower price offer for each project
Winning Hydro Generator Gerador receives the tarrif offered and follows competing with the other energy offers for the auction
15 to 35 years contracts – usual 30 years for hidros and 15 for thermal
3 and 5 years ahead delivery
“botox”(under delayed construction)energy projects were acepted till 2007
The hydro concession is offered to the ACR winners
Contracting by Energy typeThe “new” and the “old” energy
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ACL – MACRO Environment Free Market Growth
What happened ? Offer and Demand unbalance and the free market responded quickly. Market Response: Price
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
dez/99 dez/00 dez/01 dez/02 dez/03 mai/04 dez/04 dez/05 jun/06
ACL
Excess
Post-rationing excessOffer increase+ consumption reduction
Post-rationing excessOffer increase+ consumption reduction
jun/07Increased reduction with free mkt sales
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Market Breakdown and Contracts Network
REGULATEDCONSUMERS
GEN Ren SELF-G
DISTRIBUTORDISTRIBUTOR
FREE CONSUMERS SPECIAL CONSUMERS
71 % 28 % 1 %
Public Auction
Free Negotiation
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Final Comments
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Government took immediate responsibility
for the energy crisis
Smart Program for consumption reduction involving all
society – simple and complex, rigid and flexible, effective !!
Extremely positive reaction of society
Macroeconomic impact has been mild
All the objectives have been achieved
Final Comments
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Crisis vs. Opportunity:
• Overall understanding about the need to conserve – residual effect
• Electric energy is a top level issue
• Investments signals must be clear
• Holistic revision and reinforcement of the sector model
Society can provide significant contribution
Final Comments
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Thank You !!!
Contact Information
Cyro Vicente [email protected] 11 2125-042055 11 9931-1002www.ecoee.com.brwww.andradecanellas.com.br