energy efficiency trends in the eu: have we got off track? · 14 hours ago · evaluate energy...

Energy efficiency trends in the EU: Have we got off track?

June 25, 2020

Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries, Enerdata

Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiencyorganised by Leonardo ENERGY

About▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE Project.

▪ This project is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission. It covers 31 countries*, mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries; it is coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI.

▪ Its main objectives are to:

✓ Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector, in relation to the observed trend in energy consumption and to the EU targets ;

✓ Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures and identify the “best measures” .

▪ The project relies on two data bases:

✓ ODYSSEE on energy efficiency indicators;

✓ MURE on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact evaluation.

www.odyssee-mure.eu

Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 2

*28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland

https://www.odyssee-mure.eu/


The ODYSSEE data tools

www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu

The data and indicators are updated to 2019 using final energy consumption data produced by Enerdata and “early estimates” of key indicators produced by ODYSSEE through a new methodology (to be revised later and included in data tools in October).

The webinar is based ondata and indicatorsprepared in theframework of theODYSSEE-MURE project,and disseminated in adata base and 5 datatools

https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/

Outline

▪ Energy consumption trends

▪ Energy efficiency trends

▪ Conclusions : have we got off track?

4Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

Energy consumption trends

Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

• Stability of the EU primaryconsumption (total energysupply) since 2014, althoughthe GDP increased by 2%/yrwith the return to economicgrowth.

• This follows a significantdecrease of 1.5%/yr between2007 and 2014 due to thefinancial crisis of 2009.

• Regular and rapid decreaseof the primary energyintensity since 2007(~1.8%/year), slightly fasterthan over 2000-2007 (+0.3pt)

Primary energy consumption and intensity VS GDP

Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: ODYSSEEEnergy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 6

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019

%/y

ear

GDP Primary consumption Intensity

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2000=

100

• Since 2014, decreasing primary consumption in 7 countries and low consumption growth below the 0.5%/year observed for the EU in 3 other countries.

• Everywhere the consumption is progressing much slower than the GDP, implying a decreasing energy intensity, especially significant in Ireland, Malta, Sweden and the Czech Rep (below 3%/yr).

Primary consumption and GDP trends over 2014-2019

Consumption at normal climate; Sources: ODYSSEE until 2017, Enerdata for 2018 and 2019; *2014-2018.


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

%/y

ear

Primary cons. GDP

• Final consumption, i.e. consumption in industry, transport and buildings,grows again since 2014 with the economic rebound: 0.8%/year.

• This contrasts greatly with the primary energy consumption trend.• Electricity grows much slower (0.3%/yr), as opposed to past trends.• Transport is the most dynamic sector since 2014 (1.6%/yr, similar to

2000-2007 trend), while industry has the lowest progression (0.2%/yr).

Households and services at normal climate *Services include non-specifiedSource: ODYSSEE


Total Electricity

Final energy consumption trends

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

%/y

ear

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019


Drivers of primary energy consumption variation over 2014-2019

• Between 2014 and 2019, the primary consumption increased by 17 Mtoe, compared to 50 Mtoe for the final consumption.

• This much lower progression of the primary consumption is due to:• a significant change in the power mix (higher share of renewables,

lower share of nuclear) which contributed to lower the increase in primary consumption by 23 Mtoe

• the increasing efficiency of thermal power plants (-20 Mtoe)

A higher progression of final energy consumption

Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool

1 519

+ 50

+ 5

- 20

- 23 + 5

1 536

1 450

1 500

1 550

1 600

2014 Var. final

cons.

Electricity

penetration

Efficiency

thermal powerplants

Power mix Other transf. 2019

Mto

e


Final energy consumption by sector and by energy

• Increasing share of transport in total finalconsumption from 30% to 34% in 2019 whileindustry’ share decreased by 4 pts, down to 25%.

• Doubling of the direct penetration of renewables(from 4 to 8% in 2019).

• Decreasing share for gas (from 24% in 2000 to21% in 2019) and for oil (from 43% to 41%) whileelectricity share increased by 2 points.

At normal climate for households and servicesSources: 2000: ODYSSEE and 2019 : Enerdata

6%

43%

24%

19%

4% 4%

5%

41%

21%

21%

4%8%

Coal Oil

Gas Electricity

Heat Renewables

2000

2019*

29% 25%

30% 34%

27% 26%

11% 13%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2019*

Mto

e

Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture

Energy efficiency trends


12

How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE?

▪ At the level of sub-sectors or end-uses, energy efficiency progressis assessed through a wide variety of indicators of specificconsumption, measured in physical units, such as:

✓ toe/ton for steel, cement in industry (or GJ/t);

✓ toe/pkm for cars, toe/tkm for freight in transport;

✓ toe/m2 for heating, kWh/household for electrical appliancesand AC, … for households ;

✓ kWh/employee, per m2, per bed … in services.

▪ Examples of sectoral indicators are provided in the ODYSSEE “keyindicators tool”*


* https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html

https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.52005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

kW

h/h

ousehold

s

koe/m

2

Heating Refrigerators

The question now is how to measure energy efficiency progress at sector level?

• For households, we may obtain for instance different energy efficiencytrends: 2.7%/yr for refrigerators and 1.9%/yr for heating.

• The question now is how can we combine the different assessments ofenergy efficiency progress by end-use to get one trend for the wholesector?

• This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”.


-1.9%/yr

-2.7%/yr

How is calculated ODEX?

• ODEX is calculated:

– First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption byend-use or sub-sector, as an index of variation ;

– Then by calculating a average index for the sector weighted bythe share of each end-use or sub-sector in the sector’s energyconsumption.

• As for each sub-sector, index of variation are used, specificconsumption can be expressed in different physical units so as tobe as close as possible to energy efficiency evaluation.

• ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors(8 modes in transport, 11 end-uses for households, 14 branches inindustry, 6 branches in services).


For more information on ODEX: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf

https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf

Example of ODEX: households in the EU

• ODEX equal 67 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved

by 33% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 2.1%/year).

Only main end-uses shown; ODEX calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses/large appliances : heating (toe/m2) (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking (toe/dwelling), cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer, TV (kWh/appliance)

15Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2000=

100

Total

Heating

Water

heatingCooking

Large elec

appliancesAC

Lighting

• Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.2%/yr from 2000to 2019, with a slow down in recent years (0.9%/yr since 2014).

• Larger gains for households (2.1%/yr since 2000), with a net slowdown since 2014 (1.6 %/yr).

• Rate of improvement divided by more than 2 in industry, since 2007(0.8%/yr compared to 1.8%/yr before).

• Regular but limited improvement in transport (1%/year).

Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers

ODEX=79 in 2019 ➔ 21% energy efficiency improvement or 1.2%/yrSource: ODYSSEE

16

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

2000=

100

Industry Transport Households Services Total


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

5

10

15

20

25

Cum

ula

ted e

nerg

y s

avin

gs

(Mto

e)

Annual energ

y s

avin

gs

(Mto

e/y

ear)

Annual energy savings Cumulated energy savings

Source: ODYSSEE

• Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000, anadditional volume of 14 Mtoe.

• These annual savings are fluctuating but tend to decrease over time.• Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached around 270 Mtoe in

2019.

Energy efficiency progress results in energy savings

Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 18Source: ODYSSEE

• Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, theannual additional savings have been regularly decreasing: from anaverage volume of 16.5 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007 to 14.5 Mtoe/yr over2007-2014 (divided by 3 in industry) and 11 Mtoe/yr since 2014 (1/3reduction for households).

Regular decrease in energy savings

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019

Mto

e

Industry Transport Households Services

Average annual additional savings by sector

• The cumulated energy savings in 2019 since 2000 represents the equivalent of 25% of final energy consumption: in other words without these savings the final consumption would have been 25% higher.

• Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations, is over represented, with a share of total savings (46%), much higher than its share in consumption (27%). On the other hand, savings in transport are much lower than their share in consumption (25% vs 34%).

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mto

e

25%

25%

46%

4%

% in energy savings

% in final consumption


Energy savings versus consumption

Source: ODYSSEE

25%

34%

27%

14%

High share of energy savings in final consumption (>25%)

Low share of energy savings in final consumption (<25%)

• Long-standing EU MemberStates (e.g. Germany, Italy andFrance) have a relatively lowershare of energy savings since2000, as they had a greatereffort before.

• New EU MS (e.g. Slovakia,Bulgaria or Latvia) have ahigher share due to greaterefforts in terms of energysavings since 2000

Source: ODYSSEE

Austria

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

Denmark

Estonia

Finland

Greece

HungaryIreland

LatviaLithuania

Luxembourg

Malta

Norway

Portugal

Czech Rep

Slovakia

Slovenia

Sweden

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

Austria

Belgium

Spain

Finland

France

UK

Greece

Italy

Netherlands

Poland

Czech Rep

Germany

Romania

Sweden

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Share

of countr

y e

nerg

y s

avin

gs (

2000-2

017)

in t

ota

l

EU

savin

gs

Share of country final energy consumption in total EU

21

Activity effect : mainly economic growth, plus demography and lifestyle changes (appliance ownership and larger dwellings). Source: ODYSSEE; decomposition tool https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html

Drivers of final energy consumption variation: 2014-2019

• Between 2014 and 2019, the economic and demographic growth (“activity”) contributed to raise the final consumption by 95 Mtoe.

• Energy savings offset more than half of this activity effect by reducing consumption by 55 Mtoe.

50.3

95.1

-4.1

-54.5

6.8 7.0

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mto

e

Var. cons. final

Activity

Structure

Energy savings

Climate

Other

https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mto

e

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy savings Primary cons.

Energy savings first fuel in primary energy consumption


• Looking on a longer period, since 1990, energy savings have reducedprimary consumption by around 580 Mtoe in 2019, i.e. the equivalentof 27% of that consumption.

• Energy savings is the first fuel in primary consumption in 2019 (4points above oil with a share of 23%).

Energy savings represents 27% of 2019 primary consumption

Source: ODYSSEE

Final energy intensity and energy efficiency trends

• Since 2014 energy efficiency only explains half of the final energy intensity reduction.

• Different types of structural changes (e.g. towards less energy intensive sectors (services) and industrial branches, saturation effects, higher value added products … ) have contributed as much to the intensity reduction .

• Before 2014 most of the intensity decrease was due to energy efficiency improvements (around 80%)…


-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019

%/y

ear

Final intensity Structural changes Savings

Source: ODYSSEE

Conclusions

Have we got off track?


EU Energy efficiency targets

* Referred to as PRIMES 2007 from the model name used

• Energy efficiency targets are always difficult to define, they can beexpressed in terms of:

i. Energy intensity reduction, but as explained, variation in intensityinclude other factors than energy efficiency;

ii. Energy consumption reduction compared to a baseline;iii. Energy savings;iv. Energy consumption target level (i.e. absolute consumption cap)

• The EU has been using the 3 last types of targets, in a complementaryway. If we refer to the most recent update of the EU energy efficiency lawcalled EED (Energy Efficiency Directive), the EU has the following targets:• 32.5% energy saving target in 2030 (20% in 2020), for the EU as

whole, compared to a Baseline projection*;• 1.5% additional energy savings until 2020 and 0.8% over 2021-2030

from energy savings obligation or policy measures (Article 7 of EED);• Primary and final energy consumption targets by country (Article 3).


800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Mto

e

Primary cons. at real climate Final cons. at real climate Final cons. target

Primary cons. target BAU primary BAU final

Primary and final energy consumption targets

Source: ODYSSEE

-20%

• In 2019, EU primary and final consumption were closed to the 2020efficiency targets (around 4% and 3% above respectively).

• Warmer winters have helped achieving the targets (final consumption atnormal climate 5% above target in 2019) .

• Past trends do not enable to reach the 2030 targets.


-32.5%

PRIMES 2007

27

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mto

e

Art. 7 savings Top-down ODYSSEE savings Target

Article 7 imposes a certain level of energy savings

• 1.5% of additional annual savings according to Article 7 of EED forfinal consumers over 2014-2020 (and 0.8%/year from 2021 to 2030).

• Energy savings from Article 7 as reported by MS reached 40% of 2020target in 2017, our estimate based on indicators exceed the target butour savings are broader than Article 7 savings (as they include alltypes of savings: policy related and from autonomous progress).

Source: ODYSSEESavings target obtained by cumulating annual energy savings over 2014-2020

Conclusions• Since 2014, the increasing share of renewables and

more efficient thermal generation has offset 90% of the increase in final consumption.

• Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers has been much slower since 2007 in industry and since 2014 for households.

• The progression is the strongest for households (multiple regulations and incentives implemented at EU and national level).

• Have we got off track?

– EU 2020 targets on primary consumption will be easily reached due to COVID crisis which will decrease consumption by 5 to 10% in 2020.

– EU target to 2030 will not be reached with present trends and require additional measures, which is the purpose of Article 7.


www.enerdata.net

Thank you for your attention !

Contact:

About Enerdata:

Enerdata is an energy intelligence and consulting company established in 1991. Our experts will help you tackle key energy and climate issues and make sound strategic and business decisions. We provide research, solutions, consulting and training to key energy players worldwide.

Bruno Lapillonne,

Scientific director

[email protected]

Laura Sudries,

Energy efficiency analyst

[email protected]

29Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

http://www.enerdata.net/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

energy efficiency trends in the eu: have we got off track? · 14 hours ago · evaluate energy...

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