energy markets overview 2015

8/10/2019 Energy Markets Overview 2015

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GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS

OVERVIEW

Energy

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Electricity

Marets

S!"t# $"r%ard# $utures $"recasting Energy &rices

Internati"nal Organi'ati"ns

O&EC (IEA)

(Internati"nal Trade)

(Industry and G"*ern+ent)


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Y"ur Guide

&eter Sc,%ar' -NC C,arl"tte &r".ess"r ". Ec"n"+ics

and &u/lic &"licy

Ass"ciate# Energy &r"ducti"n andIn.rastructure Center (E&IC)# and

C,ina -ni*ersity ". Mining and

Tec,n"l"gy 0u',"u# C,ina


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In t,e Ne%s


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Crude Oil


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B& Statistical Re*ie% ". W"rld Energy1une 2345

/!6c"+7statisticalre*ie%

8B&stats


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I+/alance Bet%een 9 and SO&EC d"+inates# /ut SA gr"%ing# NA declining (:)

9istri/uti"n ". !r"*ed "il reser*es in

4;;


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C,ina (India) I+/alance Gr"%ing#-6S6 (Eur"!e) I+/alance S,rining

&r"ducti"n /y regi"n C"nsu+!ti"n /y regi"n

Milli"n /arrels daily


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-6S6 Net M .r"+ Canada# O&EC (MidEast# SA# A.rica)# M0


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An"t,er Vie%= -S 0> M

E+erging C"untries 0 > M


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-6S6 Leads in Crude Oil &r"duct 0(Re?neries)


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Natural Gas


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S# 9 Balance (NA gr"%ing)

@ig, trans!"rt c"sts


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S# 9 Balance

1a!an Net M (LNG)&r"ducti"n /y regi"n (/c+) C"nsu+!ti"n /y regi"n (/c+)


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$S- 0 E-

1 M LNG +ulti!le 0ers

(/c+)Ma"r gas trade +"*e+ents 234 CN -S


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Wit,in E-# NL# NW 0 9L> NW -K>CN -S> R E-


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NG &rices @ig,ly V"latile>

-6S Relati*ely L"%


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&"lar V"rte NG Ne%s47D745

WSJ: Natural Gas Market Is IceCold


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Electricity


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@as t,e Turning &"int C"+e ."r C"al:S"lar# Wind # /ut s+all> Nu Hat# @

S9


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W"rld Electricity &r"ducti"n /y $uel


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C,ina 8 4# /ig c"al user>

India l""+s6


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-6S6 N"t S" Bad> W,y 9L# ES S"

@ig,:


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Marets


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C"++"dity Marets

C"++"dity= &ri+ary rat,er t,an +anu.actured g""d E6 "il (,ard c"++"dity = n"n!eris,a/le)6

T%" .uncti"ns=

&rice disc"*ery (eJuili/riu+) S!"t +aret i++ediate "r s,"rtter+ deli*ery

All"% trans.er .r"+ current t" .uture !eri"ds6 $"r%ard# .utures +arets .uture date

9ierence !r"*ides a g""d signal a/"ut +aret c"nditi"ns: May/e n"t= @ard c"++"dity= S!"t !rice reHects +aret

e!ectati"ns ". .uture +aret c"nditi"ns


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&ur!"se ". $"r%ard# $utures Marets

S!"t & ,ig,ly *"latile M"re s" ."r !eris,a/les

Risa*erse /uyers and sellers %illing t" !ay ris !re+iu+ t" reduce*"latility (,edging ris)

NG /uyer +ay %ant t" l"c in t"days NG !rice and n"t ris t,at it +ay g",ig,er6

NG seller +ay %ant t" d" t,e sa+e i. s,e .ears .uture !rice +ay /e l"%er6 S!eculat"rs %illing t" acce!t +"re ris in return ."r ,ig,er !r"?t6

$"r%ard c"ntracts ty!ically include deli*ery# and !aid ."r at

deli*ery6 Bilateral ec,ange (Buyers# sellers +atc,ed)

$utures +arets are strictly cas,# and reJuire !aying u!.r"nt6 Organi'ed +arets (9"nt need t" n"% /uyer7seller)

Easy t" re*erse !"siti"n /e."re actual deli*ery6


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Oil S!"t *s6 $utures &


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S!"t *s6 $utures ("r $"r%ard) &rices

S!"t &

$utures&

$utures&

S!"t & $utures

&

S!"t & $utures &


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Bac%ardati"n andC"ntang"

Bac%ardati"n= S!"t $uturesT,e"ry= Sellers ,edging ris

Willing t" l"c in .utures & s!"t & t" reduce ris Buyers ,a*e t" /e c"+!ensated ."r acce!ting ris

T"days in*ent"ries l"% relati*e t" l"ngter+ e!ectati"ns In*asi"n ". Ku%ait /y IraJ (4;;3 War)

N"r+al /ac%ardati"n 9ri*ing seas"n= &s ,ig,

C"ntang"= $utures S!"tT,e"ry= Buyers ,edging ris

Willing t" !ay !re+iu+ ."r .uture su!!ly t" reduce ris Sellers ,a*e t" /e c"+!ensated ."r acce!ting ris# als" carrying c"sts6

Current in*ent"ries !lenti.ul /ut e!ected t" decline in l"ng ter+6 Saudi Ara/ia H""ded +aret %it, "il6

N"r+al c"ntang" $all gas"line !rices

Su++er natural gas !rices6


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Energy &rice $"recasting


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N"t *ery accurate l"ngter+>Better s,"rt ter+6 But /"t, *alua/le6


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Recent Oil & &r"ecti"n


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Recent NG & &r"ecti"n


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R"le ". Internati"nalOrgani'ati"ns


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O&EC


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Started in 4;D3> Gained &"%er in P C"+e/ac -ntil 1une 2345


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energy markets overview 2015

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