energy outlook 2013

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Dr. David KhemakhemGlobal Energy Security ForumMiami, February 12, 2013

This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Development

100 countries

15 demandsectors

20 fueltypes

technology & policy

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

2030

~ 60 $/ton

CO2 “Proxy” Cost

2040

~ 20 $/ton

~ 15 $/ton

~ 80 $/ton

< 10 $/ton

CO2 “Proxy” Cost

CO2 Policies


Global fundamentals

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 2040

PopulationBillion

Population Trends Impacts Energy Use

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

OECD

Africa

China

India

Southeast Asia

Latin America

Fertility Rate*Children per Woman

* Source: World Bank & United Nations

OECD

Other Non OECD

China

India

Africa

0

3

6

9

2010 2020 2030 2040

Global Demographics*Billion

Age 0-14

Age 65+

Age 15-64


0

25

50

75

100

125

2000 2020 2040

Energy Demand

Economic Growth Drives Energy DemandGDPTrillion 2005$

China

United States

2010-2040 AAGR %

5.6%

2.3%

1.8%Other OECD

Other Non

OECD

3.9%World2.8%


0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

2000 2020 2040

Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs

Energy Saved ~500

2010-2040 AAGR %World1.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 20400

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2020 2040

Tale of Two WorldsNon OECDQuadrillion BTUs

Biomass

Other Renewables

Oil

Nuclear

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Coal

Gas


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar / Wind /Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040

1.0%

2040

2010

0.8%

1.7%

-0.1%

2.4% 0.4%

5.8% 1.8%


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Energy Demand by SectorQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity Demand

Energy Demand by Sector

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Transportation Res/Comm

Quadrillion BTUs

2010

2025

2040

Electricity Generation Leads Growth


Residential/commercial

0

150

300

450

600

750

EuropeOECD

N. America OtherOECD

China Africa India LatinAmerica

Russia/Caspian

MiddleEast

Other NonOECD

Million Households

Household Growth Drives Residential Demand

2010

2040

2040


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

Residential/Commercial Outlook

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2020 2040

Residential Energy IntensityMillion BTUs per Person

Japan

North America

Europe OECD

China

India

By SectorQuadrillion BTUs

Commercial

Residential

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2000 2020 2040

Fuel DemandQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Coal

Oil

Gas

Biomass

Other


Industrial

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2015 2040

Industry Energy Demand Increases

Chemicals

Manufacturing & Industry

Energy Industry

Other

PlasticsFertilizer

Paint

Steel

Automobiles Textiles

Liquid Fuels

CoalNatural Gas

Agriculture

Lubricants Asphalt

Quadrillion BTUs


0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

Industrial Energy DemandBy FuelQuadrillion BTUs

Electricity

Oil

Gas

Renewables

Coal

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2020 2040

By RegionQuadrillion BTUs

OECD

China

India

Rest of Non

OECD

Market Heat


Electricity generation

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 20400

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040

Electricity Demand by RegionNon OECDThousand TWh

Middle East

Southeast AsiaRussia/Caspian

Other Non OECD

China

Africa

India

Thousand TWh

North America

Europe OECD

Other OECD

OECD


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

Electricity GenerationQuadrillion BTUs

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

Electricity Generation

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs

OECD

Non OECD

Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region


-30

0

30

60

90

120

Non OECD OECD

Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040Quadrillion BTUs

Oil

Nuclear

Gas

Renewables

Coal

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nuclear Wind Solar

GWGlobal Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Nuclear Wind Solar

Global Capacity UtilizedGW

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2020 2040

k TWhBy Generation

Wind & Solar

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas


Transportation

0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

Sector DemandMBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

AP NA Europe LA ME ROW

Demand by RegionMBDOE

‘40

‘25

‘10

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD

China India Middle East LatinAmerica

Other NonOECD

PHV/EVFull HybridCNGLPGDiesel ConvMogas Conv

2040

Millions of VehiclesPowertrain Technology

0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2025


0

100

200

300

400

500

NorthAmerica

EuropeOECD

OtherOECD


Other NonOECD

Advanced*

CNG

LPG

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

2010


Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

Elec/PHV

Full Hybrid

Natural Gas

Conv. Diesel

Conv. Gasoline

Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

2010 2020 2030 2040

Incremental Vehicle Efficiency GainsMiles per Gallon

Powertrain

Body & Accessories

Vehicle Size

Hybrid

Average27 MPG

47 MPG

Annual New Car Sales by TypeMillion Cars


Today’s Vehicle Technology Choices

Gasoline: 350 miles

Diesel: 435 miles

E85: 260 miles

Full hybrid: 515 miles

CNG: 210 miles

PHV: Up to 40 miles + 450 miles

Electric: Up to 100 miles

0

5

10

15

20

Full Hybrid CNG Plug-inHybrid

Elec

2012$k5-Year Cost & Savings

Cost above Conventional

Fuel Savings

Estimated Driving Distance per Fill-up


Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency

0

15

30

45

2010 2025 2040

Demand w/o Efficiency Demand

Efficiency ImpactMBDOE

0

15

30

45

60

75

'10-'25 '25-'40 Other

New Truck Efficiency% Improvement, 2010-2040

Technology

Powertrain

Body

Powertrain

Body

Hybrid

Regional Impact

Logistics & Congestion

Truck Size


0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas

Other

Non OECD

OECD

Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040MBDOE

Transportation Fuel MixFuel DemandMBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Jet FuelFuel Oil

OtherNatural Gas


Supply

Remaining Oil ResourceCrude and Condensate (BBO)

North AmericaEurope

~100

Asia Pacific

~150

Latin America Africa

Russia/Caspian

~1,000

Middle East

~650

~200

~1,100

~1,100

Global

~4,300

Source: IEA


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

Supply by Type

Other LiquidsBiofuels

Conventional Crude & Condensate

Tight OilOil Sands

NGLs

Deepwater

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2040

Resource*TBO

Remaining Resource

Cumulative Production

* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Global Gas Resource

Over 200 years coverage at current demand

World0

5

10

15

20

25

301000 TCF

Conventional

Unconventional

4.3

North America

2.5

Latin America

1.6

Europe OECD

2.6

Africa

4.9

Middle East

6.2

Russia/ Caspian*

4.5

Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD


Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts

2010 2025 20400

20

40

60

80

100

120

North America Gas Supply

Local Unconventional

LNG

Local Conventional

BCFD

2010 2025 20400

100

200

300

400

500

600

North America Conventional

North America Unconventional

Global Gas Supply

Rest of World Conventional

Rest of World Unconventional

BCFD


0

50

100

150

200

2000 2020 20400

50

100

150

200

2000 2020 2040

Growth in Unconventional Production

Production by RegionBCFD

Production by TypeBCFD

Tight

Coal Bed Methane

Shale

Rest of World

Asia Pacific

Americas


0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2025 2040

North America Energy Balance

Oil

Regional Supply

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs

Net Imports

Net Exports

Regional Supply

Net Exports


0

25

50

75

100

125

2010 2025 2040

Regional Supply

Total Energy BalanceNet Exports

Net Imports

0

30

60

90

2010 2025 2040

0

30

60

90

2010 2025 2040

Asia Pacific Energy Balance

Oil

In-country supply

Gas

Quadrillion BTUs

Net Imports

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2025 2040

In-country supply

Total Energy Balance

Net Imports


In-country supply

Net Imports

Conclusions


Shale Gas and Hydraulic Fracturing

Thousands of feet of solid rock

Conductor Casing

Intermediate Casing

Surface Casing

Production Casing**14,000 feet measured depth

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Regional Energy Trends Evolve

Latin AmericaMiddle East

Africa

Other AP

China

Russia/Caspian

Europe

North America

Percent of World TotalBy Region


0

4

8

12

16

Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*

UtilitySolar PV*

Baseload, Startup 20302012 cents/kWh

*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission

$60/ton of CO2

$0/ton

Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity

Reliability Cost


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'10 '20 '30 '400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'10 '20 '30 '400

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

'10 '20 '30 '40

SolarGeothermalBiomass/OtherWindHydro

Renewables Gain Share

United StatesPercent of TWh

EuropePercent of TWh

Asia PacificPercent of TWh

*Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste


ExxonMobil: Technology for Energy ChallengesTechnology to address the twin challenges of increased energy demand while mitigating risk from GHG emissions Improving Efficiency

• Automotive technologies– Vehicle light weighting– ExxcoreTM: tire lining technology – Advanced synthetic lubricants

• Power generation– Cogeneration– Wind turbine lube oils

Expanding Supplies• Directional drilling• Unconventional and liquefied natural gas• Advanced biofuels

Reducing Emissions• Natural gas for power generation • Controlled Freeze Zone™• Carbon capture and storage• Global Climate & Energy Project

0

150

300

450

Conv. Diesel LNG-CI

Costs Impact U.S. Heavy Duty Choices

$k3-Year Cost of Ownership

2012

FuelCost

Vehicle Cost

0

150

300

450

Conv. Diesel CNG-SI

$k5-Year Cost of Ownership

2012

FuelCost

Vehicle Cost

CNG Tanks

Short Haul Truck

LNG Tanks

Long Haul Truck


Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.

He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where he is responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies, and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one of the principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook. He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future of energy to a wide variety of audiences.

David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numerous technical and management assignments covering activities in the United States and around the world.

He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in the area of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the Well Integrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research.

In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as a Subsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations in Colorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas.

In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety of assignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. In this role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigs during the development of the North Field.

In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in 2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager.

The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters to join the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in the development of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond.

David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Minnesota.

Text in Box: Short Bio

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