international energy outlook 2013 · key findings of the international energy outlook 2013 2 adam...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2013

for Center for Strategic and International Studies July 25, 2013 | Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator

Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013

2 Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

• With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India.

• Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world’s fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.

• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States.

• Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in China’s consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries.

• Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040.

Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend

3

average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

U.S. OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

China India Brazil MiddleEast

Africa Russia

Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013

Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use

4

world energy consumption quadrillion Btu


0

100

200

300

400

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

History Projections


By 2040, China’s energy use will be double the U.S. level; India’s a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth

5

energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

China

United States

India

History Projections 2010


107

55

220

Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption

6

world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquids (including biofuels)

Renewables (excluding biofuels)

Natural gas

Coal

Nuclear


34%

28%

22%

11%

5%

28%

27% 23%

7%

15%

Share of world total


Industrial sector energy consumption in China

7

China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu


0

20

40

60

80

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Liquids

Renewables Natural gas

Coal

Electricity

Total


Gross output curves shape China’s industrial coal and liquids use

8

China gross output for iron production

real 2005 dollars (MER)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China gross output for chemical production

real 2005 dollars (MER)

Source: Oxford Industrial Model


Liquid Fuels Markets


OPEC member countries contribute almost half of the total increase in world liquid supplies

10


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OPEC petroleum liquids

OPEC petroleum liquids

Nonpetroleum


world liquids production million barrels per day


62

49

5

50

35

2

Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries

11

non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe Mexico/Chile

2010 2040


0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

2010

2010

2040

Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies

12

world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day



Biofuels

Coal-to-liquids

Gas-to-liquids

Other

Other

Brazil United States

China

Other Qatar

2010

2040

2040

Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain

13

Source: EIA, IEO2013


Country 2011

2040

Past as prologue

Iraq success

Iran success

Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia takes the rest

2040 production range

Saudi Arabia 11.1 15.5 10.2 13.8 6.0 9.5

Iran 4.2 5.9 3.9 8.1 8.1 4.2

Iraq 2.6 3.7 11.0 3.3 11.0 7.7

Other Middle East OPEC

7.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.7 _

Total Middle East OPEC

25.4 35.8 35.8 35.8 35.8 _

liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day

Natural Gas Markets


Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption

15

world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Non-OECD

billion cubic feet per day

330

275

220

165

110

55

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production

16

1

2

5

5

6

10

12

16

19

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Other OECD

Canada

Australia/New Zealand

Non-OECD Central and South America

Africa

Non-OECD Asia

United States

Middle East

Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia

growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet



Electricity Markets


In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040


0.0

15.0

30.0

45.0

1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours


Coal

Natural gas

Hydropower

Nuclear

Other renewables Liquids

History Projections

40%

22%

36%

24%

China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity

19

world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts


0 50 100 150 200

Japan

South Korea

India

Russia

Other non-OECD

OECD Americas

OECD Europe

China

2010

2040


Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions


Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions

21

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons



0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia

History Projections

Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection

22

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons

Coal

Natural gas

Liquid fuels

2010 History Projections



There are many issues that increase uncertainty…


• Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China

• The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima

• Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere

• Shale gas and shale oil production potential

• OPEC market share decisions

• Climate policies

For more information

24

U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer


http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

Supplementary Slides

Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 July 25, 2013 25

IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices


• Reference case

– World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion Btu (quads) in 2040

– Oil prices reach $163 (Brent in 2011 dollars) and the OPEC share of liquids production is 43% in 2040

• High Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 4.0 percent per year and consumption grows to 946 quads in 2040

• Low Economic Growth case – World GDP increases by 3.1 percent per year and consumption grows to 733 quads in 2040

• High Oil Price case – Oil prices rise to $237 per barrel as a result of high non-OECD demand and the OPEC share

is 38% in 2040

• Low Oil Price case – Oil prices are $75 per barrel as a result of low non-OECD GDP growth and the OPEC share is

51% in 2040

Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises

27


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Low Oil Price

High Oil Price

Reference


Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel


$237

$163

$75

Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand

28

world energy consumption quadrillion Btu


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD

OECD 242

282

535

285



Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East

29

OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day


0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

Middle East North Africa West Africa South America

2010 2040


Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets


map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013

Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI

Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources


Shale oil Rank Country Billion barrels

1 Russia 75

2 United States 58

3 China 32

4 Argentina 27

5 Libya 26

6 Venezuela 13

7 Mexico 13

8 Pakistan 9

9 Canada 9

10 Indonesia 8

World total 345

Shale gas Rank Country Trillion cubic feet

1 China 1,115

2 Argentina 802

3 Algeria 707

4 United States 665

5 Canada 573

6 Mexico 545

7 Australia 437

8 South Africa 390

9 Russia 285

10 Brazil 245

World total 7,299

Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI. Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet.

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2040 2010 2040 2010 2040

Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada

32

natural gas production trillion cubic feet


China Canada

Shale gas

All other

United States


Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Btu or British thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources


• One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match.

• One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor gasoline.

• One trillion Btu is equal to 500 100-ton railroad cars of coal.

• One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

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