energy outlook for the transport sector - us … outlook for the transport sector grant karsner...
TRANSCRIPT
Energy Outlook for the Transport Sector
Grant Karsner Manager, Products Research and Technology ExxonMobil Research and Engineering
DEER Conference September 27, 2010 Detroit, MI
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Economic Growth Drives Energy Demand GDP Demand
Trillion 2005$ GDP MBDOE 60 200
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005 2030 0
100
0
30
OECD
0
100
200
0
30
60 MBDOE Trillion 2005$ GDP
Non OECD
1980 2005 2030 1980 2005
2
2030
Growing Global Demand
By Sector MBDOE
2005 – 2030 150
1.7% per year
2030
100 0.8%
per year 2005
1.3% per year
0.4% 50 per year
0 Transportation Industrial Res/Comm PowerGen Energy Savings
3
OECD Non OECD OECD Non OECD
Global Transportation Demand
By Sector Personal vs. Commercial MBDOE MBDOE
2.9% 70 25 per year
1980 2005 2030 Personal Commercial 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
5
10
15
20 Rail
Light Duty Vehicles
OECD Non
OECD
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Co
mm
ercial
2005
2030
Perso
nal
-1.1% per year
3.1% per year
0.9% per year
4
technologies for consumers’ use of fuelshorter-term • conventional vehicle technology improvements
− engines (e.g. adv. lubricants); efficient transmissions− others (e.g. tire liners, low weight plastics)
• advanced vehicles− hybrid (e.g. lithium ion battery materials)− advanced diesel
longer-term• breakthrough vehicles
− “HCCI” or “CAI”; fuel cell (e.g. on-board H2 generator)− plug-in hybrid and EV (e.g. lithium ion battery materials)
Technologies for GHG Reduction gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis
crude crude crude refining product storage retail gasoline recovery transportation to products & transportation site vehicle
production of fuel 20% GHG/mile
Consumers’ use of fuel 80% GHG/mile
technologies for fuel production shorter-term • energy efficiency • flare reduction • cogeneration
longer-term • second generation bio-fuels • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
5
Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005
Algae-based biofuels • benefits of using algae for biofuels production:
– can be grown using land and water unsuitable for food production – potentially yield greater volumes of biofuels per acre than other biofuel sources – could be used to manufacture biofuels similar to today’s transportation fuels – growing algae consume CO2; algae-based biofuels could provide GHG mitigation
benefits versus conventional fuels
Sunlight Carbon Water Algae More Algae Oxygen Dioxide Containing
Hydrocarbons
• ExxonMobil alliance with Synthetic Genomics Inc – focus on development of advanced biofuels from photosynthetic algae – complements ExxonMobil’s ongoing efforts to advance breakthrough technologies
to meet the world’s energy challenges
6
Technologies for GHG Reduction gasoline internal combustion engine from crude oil – well-to-wheels basis
crude crude crude refining recovery transportation to products
production of fuel 20% GHG/mile
technologies for fuel production shorter-term • energy efficiency • flare reduction • cogeneration
longer-term • second generation bio-fuels • Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
product storage & transportation
retail site
gasoline vehicle
Consumers’ use of fuel 80% GHG/mile
technologies for consumers’ use of fuel shorter-term • conventional vehicle technology improvements
− engines, transmissions, body and accessories • advanced vehicles
− hybrids, advanced diesel engines
longer-term • breakthrough vehicles
− “HCCI” or “CAI”; hydrogen fuel cells − plug-in hybrid, battery electric vehicles
7
Source: U.S. Basis - WTW Study, Argonne National Lab, 2005
Improving Consumers’ Use of Energy
lithium-ion battery materials*
new separator technology for lighter and safer hybrid and electric vehicle batteries
advanced engines and fuels research
potential for improved fuel economy vs. current gasoline engines, by using diesel-like combustion process
on-board hydrogen generator for fuel cell vehicles
converts hydrocarbon fuels into hydrogen to power a fuel cell – all on-board the vehicle
Since 4Q’09 Lithium Ion Battery Separator film s are produced and marketed by Toray Tonen Specialty Separator 8Godo Kaisha, a joint venture in which ExxonMobil has a 25% interest.
Engine &Powertrain
Body &Accessories
Operational /Behavior
Mild Hybrids CountrySpecific
1
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Road Freight – US New Truck Efficiency Ton-Miles Percent Improvement 2005 – 2030
70 1500
60 2005
980
50
40
1000
30
Truck Size
Other
20 Congestion, Lighter Cargo,
etc. 10
0
5 10 15 Engine & Body & Operational / Mild Hybrids Country Trillion 2005$ GDP Powertrain Accessories Behavior Specific
Change
500
9
Integrated Energy Solutions
increase efficiency
TTeecchhnnoollooggyy
mitigate expand emissions supply
10
11